Off-Season Debate, Question 1: Can Kimmie Keep Up The Momentum?

[R.D.]

I would like to see that so-called "disastrous" Asada performance.

You're right. Nothing is set in stone. And that's one of the fun things about all this. I don't think anybody is worrying whether she (Kimmie) can sustain her skating per se, but it's certainly interesting to speculate what might happen.

But in all fairness, is it fair to write Asada off after ONE "bad" performance? Maybe she was just off that night. Perhaps she does have hard times ahead of her, but as I say time and time again a real champion will find a way to persevere and get back on top again. And there are very few people that can do that, BTW. The only real champions in ladies skating right now, IMO, are MK and Irina for how they've handled the setbacks that have come their way in skating. I am ready to add Arakawa to that list for coming back strong after a dismal 2005 season to win the biggest one of them all, too.

But I digress, again. Good luck to all the young ones in the next four years. I think they will set the standard. Whether they will rule is up to the skate gods but I think they will raise the bar as far as technical elements are concerned.

(until they injure themselves doing so, that is)

 

[chuckm]

I wouldn't write anyone off, including Mao, Yu-Na and Kimmie. They are all young and may have physical and mental maturiity obstacles ahead of them. They will all have their great momemts, good moments and not-so-good ones.

It's just that up to Junior Worlds, Mao has been considered untouchable and unbeatable. Now we know she's human and isn't immune to having a bad day.

 

[R.D.]

It's just that up to Junior Worlds, Mao has been considered untouchable and unbeatable. Now we know she's human and isn't immune to having a bad day.

I'll never forget those who were crying that poor Mao didn't get to go to the Olys. "She would have killed the competition," most of these people say. Well, now you know.

 

[leon]

I'll never forget those who were crying that poor Mao didn't get to go to the Olys. "She would have killed the competition," most of these people say. Well, now you know.

"Know" what? Makes no sense. It is easy to tear down an argument no one has made.

Few if any ever claimed she'd "kill the competiton" at the Olympics. Anyone who did so is certainly out of touch with the real world of figure skating. I wanted her at the Olympics because she proved she was one of the best senior ladies competing in the Grand prix series last year. Few advocates would have picked her as the favorite for gold but she did in fact beat the OG medalist in three competitions leading up to Torino. And, to use someone else's word, she "trounced" the 2006 World Champion in early 2005 at Jr World's and later at TEB in France. She was only defeated by one skater on the podium at Torino and she later beat her in the Grand Prix final.

She belonged in Torino based on her scores in front of three different international panel of ISU judges in three different countries in addition to her own placement among her peers in Japan. Without any stretch, she had scores that place her easily in the top three to five elite skaters in the World. You don't have to be able to kill the competition to be competitive. She'll likely be a favorite to medal in every competition she enters next year.

Jr World's is a strange competiton to send a senior grand prix champion to. Kimmie had trouble the year before at Jr World's having beat many of the those competing at senior worlds but she was relegated to Jr World's because of her age. I wish both Mao and Yu-Na had skated their best skates in Slovenia but clearly Mao was off her game. She and Kimmie and I think now Yu-Na have had the taste of great successes. They clearly like it. They are all fighters. I am excited for the future.

 

[R.D.]

Everyone has off days. Let's see- or you see- how they all do next year.

P.S. And yes, I KNOW some posters out there who DID say that Mao would be likely to win the Olympics. This was mostly after she beat Irina at the GPF.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Mao beat the 2005 World Champion in the GP Final. Only the R U L E kept her from going to the Olys and we got Miki. Only the R U LE kept her from going to the Worlds and we got Yoshie. The possibility that Mao would win the Olys and Worlds was a valid guess.

The three baby ballerinas are now Mao, YuNa, and Kimmie

The three underdogs are now: Katy, Emily, Bebe

the dark horse is now: Alissa

Joe

 

[chuckm]

Just remember that THE RULE kept Kimmie from competing at Worlds 2005 which might have set HER up to win the OGM herself. She was off by just one competition, wasn't she?

If she had gone to Worlds 2005, her skating might have matured quite a bit more, and she might have gone into the GP getting more respect from the judges, hence higher PCS scores.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Good point, Chuckum - There was that possibility, and it was Jenny's swan song.

Joe

 

[leon]

. . . And yes, I KNOW some posters out there who DID say that Mao would be likely to win the Olympics. This was mostly after she beat Irina at the GPF.

"likely to win" and "kill the competition" have different rings to them. I would certainly have given Mao as much of a chance to win as Arakawa. Arakawa had always been my pick to win but I don't know what I'd thought if Mao had been thrown into the mix given her history of successes against Shizuka.

On an "off day[or days]" Mao beat the US Jr National Champion by 40 points and the Jr World Bronze medalist Zukowski by 18.
We should all have such "off days".

 

[R.D.]

Let's see how Mao does against the seniors on an off day.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

RD - You advised me that there is nothing wrong with predictions. You could not see Kimmie winning at all. Your predictions are always in the negative. the affirmative, I think, is a problem for you. that's ok.

I believe Mao and YuNa will be among the top contenders next season. It's a prediction but I am not afraid of being wrong.

Joe

 

[R.D.]

it's not being "afraid" of being wrong. It's just knowing that given certain circumstances, ANYTHING can happen. That's all. I think this confuses many people

 

[Ogre Mage]

Does she really have to worry about the Japanese and other Asians supposedly making a threat? Yes.

Can she win the US title next year? She has to be the favorite to win the U.S. title now. She just won worlds, something Sasha has never done and Michelle has not done since 2003.

Can she successfully defend her World Championship in 07? It will be very difficult.

Is she going to be a one-hit wonder? I am 95% sure we will see her on the worlds podium again, though it may not be at the top step. Based on that, she will not be a one-hit wonder.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

it's not being "afraid" of being wrong. It's just knowing that given certain circumstances, ANYTHING can happen. That's all. I think this confuses many people

Still one can just say negative things or step up to the plate.

 

[R.D.]

Step up to what plate? I think there's some misunderstanding here.

 

[antmanb]

2002 Olys Favorites: Slutskaya, Kwan, Cohen - Winner: Hughes

I don't think Cohen was even vaguely a favourite for the 2002 medal...if she'd have won it, it would have been a spoiler, hughes as reigning worlds bronze medalist was more on the map than Cohen who had never skated in an international Championship until SLC Olympics.

Ant

 

[antmanb]

The three baby ballerinas are now Mao, YuNa, and Kimmie

Joe

C'mon Joe - i kow that you don't mean it but Kimmie and Asada are no ballerinas...from what i hear (though i haven't seen) Yu Na is the only one with the presentation skills to start (prematurely) calling a ballerina!

Ant

 

[dizzydi7]

Antmanb,

I agree with you about Kimmie. My interpretation of the term "baby ballerina" does not apply to Kimmie. Kimmie is a wonderful skater and her jumping ability is amazing but at this point I don't consider her a beautiful, artistic skater.

If I had to choose a similar skater in which to compare her, it would be Tara Lipinski. Both are/were incredible competitors with consistency who could handle the pressure. Of course, Kimmie will be under much more pressure in the future as a defending World Champion. She seems confident and cool-headed, howevever, which may serve her well.

Dizzy

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

it's not being "afraid" of being wrong. It's just knowing that given certain circumstances, ANYTHING can happen. That's all. I think this confuses many people

Same thing in baseball like when the catcher drops the ball on the third strike.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Mao beat the 2005 World Champion in the GP Final. Only the R U L E kept her from going to the Olys and we got Miki. Only the R U LE kept her from going to the Worlds and we got Yoshie. The possibility that Mao would win the Olys and Worlds was a valid guess.

The three baby ballerinas are now Mao, YuNa, and Kimmie

The three underdogs are now: Katy, Emily, Bebe

the dark horse is now: Alissa

Joe

I believe that, before the Olympics were held, in their point system the rankings were Fumie, Miki, and Mao (I'm not sure in what order) followed by Shizuka, Yukari, and Yoshie. So the statement that the rule kept Mao from going to the Olympics and we got Miki was inaccurate. If Mao had been allowed to go to the Olympics, it would have been the Olympic Gold Medalist who was bumped from the team. Not picking on your statement, exactly, I just found it to be something interesting to think about.