OGM - Who's within reach of it?
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2003
Pairs - If both are healthy it will be between S&Z and T&M if either are injured add P&T (Russia) and P&T (China). Longer shots Z&Z, Z&S and O&S Longest shots the .......U.S. teams. I&B get thee to a jump coach STAT Moving up in pairs is almost as slow as moving up in ice dance. When S&Z aren't skating pairs seem pretty boring. I long for a good rivalry like B&S and S&P. The current Russian pairs and the Chinese other than S&Z just don't do it for me.
Ice Dancc - N&K or D&S, B&A unfortunately are not eligible and I wonder if the judges would be ready to give an American team gold if they were? G&G, C&S, or D&L to complete the podium.
Men - Depending on Plushenko's health this could be wide open like at Worlds. The judges have shown that they are willing to reward Lambiel, Goebel, Weir, Sandhu, or Buttle if they skate their best.
Ladies - Kwan, Irina, Sasha, Shizuka, Fumie or whoever pulls a Hughes.
Ice Dancc - N&K or D&S, B&A unfortunately are not eligible and I wonder if the judges would be ready to give an American team gold if they were? G&G, C&S, or D&L to complete the podium.
Men - Depending on Plushenko's health this could be wide open like at Worlds. The judges have shown that they are willing to reward Lambiel, Goebel, Weir, Sandhu, or Buttle if they skate their best.
Ladies - Kwan, Irina, Sasha, Shizuka, Fumie or whoever pulls a Hughes.
Evan Lysacyk _ seems like a laid back competitor and had a break through this year
Ilia Klimkin- He has the goods and he seems to come back strong right after an injury (2002 NHK)
Andrei Gryazev (in case Klimkin can't come back)- I think TT will work her magic on the boy, a la Yagudin
Emannuel Sandhu- He's been steadily improving his standings and now Buttle has Canada's expectations.
Brian Joubert: the man I expect the most to grab the OGM
Ladies:
Shizuka: Newly recommitted to training, I hope Shizzy pulls a Dortmund
Joannie Rochette_ Has the jumps and the choreo to pull a win
Sasha Cohen - she's always within reach, can she grab it?
Carolina
Ilia Klimkin- He has the goods and he seems to come back strong right after an injury (2002 NHK)
Andrei Gryazev (in case Klimkin can't come back)- I think TT will work her magic on the boy, a la Yagudin
Emannuel Sandhu- He's been steadily improving his standings and now Buttle has Canada's expectations.
Brian Joubert: the man I expect the most to grab the OGM
Ladies:
Shizuka: Newly recommitted to training, I hope Shizzy pulls a Dortmund
Joannie Rochette_ Has the jumps and the choreo to pull a win
Sasha Cohen - she's always within reach, can she grab it?
Carolina
Dance: This one is easy. They might as well just award it to Navka/Kostomorov now. Not that they will necessarily deserve it, but there is no way it is going to anyone else. They are the reigning world champs and were held up all season by the judges in spite of some truly poor performances. Add to that that the world silver medalists, as of now, cannot compete at all, and they are a shoe-in. I think their real competition will end up being the French team, but I have a feeling that at best they well be competing for silver or bronze.
Pairs: It's all T/M and S/Z. At this point I do not see another team winning. O/S or the new German team may have an outside shot, but not at all likely.
Ladies: wide open field. Slutskaya and Kwan will be in it, of course. As will Cohen, Arakawa, Suguri, Ando, Kostner, Rochette.
Mens: I would have said Plushenko would have had it locked up, but after worlds, I think the field is much more interesting. Plushenko has so many injuries, and has seriously neglected caring for them for such a period, that his health come Torino is a real question mark. Also Lambiel showed a certain brilliance. Other possible spoilers include Buttle, Weir, Sandhu, Lysechek and Lindemann.
Pairs: It's all T/M and S/Z. At this point I do not see another team winning. O/S or the new German team may have an outside shot, but not at all likely.
Ladies: wide open field. Slutskaya and Kwan will be in it, of course. As will Cohen, Arakawa, Suguri, Ando, Kostner, Rochette.
Mens: I would have said Plushenko would have had it locked up, but after worlds, I think the field is much more interesting. Plushenko has so many injuries, and has seriously neglected caring for them for such a period, that his health come Torino is a real question mark. Also Lambiel showed a certain brilliance. Other possible spoilers include Buttle, Weir, Sandhu, Lysechek and Lindemann.
IMHO, the health of too many skaters is too uncertain at this time. Even if Plushy and Zhao recover, they may not get back to their prior brilliance. Irina is speculative; IIRC, one of the fluffs on her included a doctor saying that the stress during the year leading up to SLC contributed to her illness.
I'll be very, very, very disappointed if someone wins just because they load their programs with beillmans. I'll also be disappointed if someone wins with 2 footed jumps over other skaters that land jumps.
I just hope that CoP makes some improvements, and fast.
I won't predict right now. Ask me again when the new skating season starts.
I just hope that CoP makes some improvements, and fast.
I won't predict right now. Ask me again when the new skating season starts.
I promised in my first post to add my comments, so here they are 
I don't watch/care for Mens, Pairs or Dance so I have no comments there.
Ladies - I really believe MK still has a shot at the OGM. It may be more far-fetched than in 1998 and 2002 when she was the favorite, but I still think it's there if she can adapt to the Cop. Of course, this excludes the nerves/X factor. Irina has the biggest shot of them all, actually. Arguably this one could be hers to lose.
Ones with smaller shots include MK (mentioned above), Suguri (if some other people falter and she can deliver), Kostner (same thing), and, I suppose, Cohen (although just about everything else takes her RIGHT out of it. I think she'll be going for 2nd place once again, or 3rd place.)
ITA. May the best skater (THAT NIGHT) win.
I don't watch/care for Mens, Pairs or Dance so I have no comments there.
Ladies - I really believe MK still has a shot at the OGM. It may be more far-fetched than in 1998 and 2002 when she was the favorite, but I still think it's there if she can adapt to the Cop. Of course, this excludes the nerves/X factor. Irina has the biggest shot of them all, actually. Arguably this one could be hers to lose.
Ones with smaller shots include MK (mentioned above), Suguri (if some other people falter and she can deliver), Kostner (same thing), and, I suppose, Cohen (although just about everything else takes her RIGHT out of it. I think she'll be going for 2nd place once again, or 3rd place.)
ITA. May the best skater (THAT NIGHT) win.
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2003
I totally agree with Rain's assessment.
Dance
All Navka/Kostomarov. I see almost no chance for anyone else to win, simply because the judges have made it crystal clear that N/K are the current Golden Children/Chosen Ones. Everyone else is skating for silver and bronze. My personal hopes lie with the French team.
Pairs
I agree it's between Shen/Zhao and Totmianina/Marinin. All the other pairs are a notch below those two teams. If Shen/Zhao can get and stay healthy, it could be a horse race--potentially very close. If the Chinese aren't healthy, Totmianina/Marinin will win easily.
Men
Despite his withdrawal from Worlds, Plushenko is still The Man, and everyone knows it. If he is healthy, I believe he will win--and win fairly easily at that. If he's not healthy, the field is wide open, with Lambiel and Weir the biggest threats in my opinion. Buttle and Joubert could also contend for gold. I see Lysacek, Lindemann, Li, Griazev, and Sandhu as medal threats, but not gold threats.
Ladies
No question: Irina is the favorite. However, I feel like this is the most unpredictable of the events. Irina has a clear edge in reputation and results, but her health is a big question mark. If Irina isn't skating well, I feel like the competition is wide open. It would not be shocking to see Michelle, Sasha, or Shizuka win gold. I think Fumie and Joannie are much, much longer shots, but it's not totally impossible to imagine them winning, either. Carolina is the real dark horse. The judges seem to like her, and more importantly, Carolina has shown the ability to bring her top game to the season's marquee event. Like Lu Chen in the 90s, Carolina tends to skate better at Worlds than she does anywhere else. If she can focus like that in Torino, who knows what could happen.
Dance
All Navka/Kostomarov. I see almost no chance for anyone else to win, simply because the judges have made it crystal clear that N/K are the current Golden Children/Chosen Ones. Everyone else is skating for silver and bronze. My personal hopes lie with the French team.
Pairs
I agree it's between Shen/Zhao and Totmianina/Marinin. All the other pairs are a notch below those two teams. If Shen/Zhao can get and stay healthy, it could be a horse race--potentially very close. If the Chinese aren't healthy, Totmianina/Marinin will win easily.
Men
Despite his withdrawal from Worlds, Plushenko is still The Man, and everyone knows it. If he is healthy, I believe he will win--and win fairly easily at that. If he's not healthy, the field is wide open, with Lambiel and Weir the biggest threats in my opinion. Buttle and Joubert could also contend for gold. I see Lysacek, Lindemann, Li, Griazev, and Sandhu as medal threats, but not gold threats.
Ladies
No question: Irina is the favorite. However, I feel like this is the most unpredictable of the events. Irina has a clear edge in reputation and results, but her health is a big question mark. If Irina isn't skating well, I feel like the competition is wide open. It would not be shocking to see Michelle, Sasha, or Shizuka win gold. I think Fumie and Joannie are much, much longer shots, but it's not totally impossible to imagine them winning, either. Carolina is the real dark horse. The judges seem to like her, and more importantly, Carolina has shown the ability to bring her top game to the season's marquee event. Like Lu Chen in the 90s, Carolina tends to skate better at Worlds than she does anywhere else. If she can focus like that in Torino, who knows what could happen.
Men: Plushenko, Lambiel, Lysacek, Joubert, Weir and Sandhu
Ladies: Slutskaya, Kostner, Cohen, Ando and Arakawa
Pairs: Shen&Zhao, Totmianina&Marinin and Pang&Tong
Dance: Navka&Kostomarov and Belbin&Agosto (IF the latter pair would be allowed to participate)
Ladies: Slutskaya, Kostner, Cohen, Ando and Arakawa
Pairs: Shen&Zhao, Totmianina&Marinin and Pang&Tong
Dance: Navka&Kostomarov and Belbin&Agosto (IF the latter pair would be allowed to participate)
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
The Liz Manley Award: Joannie Rochette. If she skates like she did at Canadian nationals she could grab the gold.
The Sarah Hughes Award: Carolina Kostner. The reigning world bronze medalist competing in her home country. The only negative is that her style is still a little coltish -- just like Sarah in 2002.
The Tara Lipinski Award: Mao Asada. The youngest Olympic champion ever. They had to pass a rule to keep her out (the Tara rule).
Miki Ando -- Get your quad back, throw in a triple/triple/double or two and anything can happen. Presentation? I'll go with Linny's motto -- fake it till you make it!
Irina -- Her health is everything. If she feels good, she'll be the favorite.
Sentimental favorite -- Fumie. She has it all, she's paid her dues -- Go Fumie!
Men: Worlds was a tease, but it's Plushenko all the way.
Mathman
The Sarah Hughes Award: Carolina Kostner. The reigning world bronze medalist competing in her home country. The only negative is that her style is still a little coltish -- just like Sarah in 2002.
The Tara Lipinski Award: Mao Asada. The youngest Olympic champion ever. They had to pass a rule to keep her out (the Tara rule).
Miki Ando -- Get your quad back, throw in a triple/triple/double or two and anything can happen. Presentation? I'll go with Linny's motto -- fake it till you make it!
Irina -- Her health is everything. If she feels good, she'll be the favorite.
Sentimental favorite -- Fumie. She has it all, she's paid her dues -- Go Fumie!
Men: Worlds was a tease, but it's Plushenko all the way.
Mathman
I agree with Eeyora and will add we can only hope and wish what our favourite skaters will do, but 10 months is a very l o n g time, much can happen.
My favourite lady is Michelle. She will come out with an awesome program, for sure. The skate, that night, is up to her.
My favourite lady is Michelle. She will come out with an awesome program, for sure. The skate, that night, is up to her.
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2005
Mens/Ladies
Mens- has to be Plushy. If he is healthy nobody can beat him. Ladies- Irena or Arakawa, real outside chance- Sasha or Ando.
Mens- has to be Plushy. If he is healthy nobody can beat him. Ladies- Irena or Arakawa, real outside chance- Sasha or Ando.
At this year's Worlds, my heart was with Irina. Not just for the vicissitudes that have befallen her and her family, but because she's been right in there for so long. It seemed like her turn and she took full advantage of it.
But for the '06 OGM, my heart will be with Michelle. The killer pressure of '98 and the weirdness of firing Frank and Lori in fall '01. Michelle seems to have had her ducks in a row over the last three years and I'd love to see her learn from her first experience with the COP, dig down deep, and skate an OGM-winning performance for the ages. I really want her to have a full set of Olympic medals: silver, bronze, gold.
If Sasha can FINALLY pull it together, I'd like to see her win bronze, with Irina with the silver if her health holds up.
It's too late for me to think rationally about the other disciplines.
Rgirl
But for the '06 OGM, my heart will be with Michelle. The killer pressure of '98 and the weirdness of firing Frank and Lori in fall '01. Michelle seems to have had her ducks in a row over the last three years and I'd love to see her learn from her first experience with the COP, dig down deep, and skate an OGM-winning performance for the ages. I really want her to have a full set of Olympic medals: silver, bronze, gold.
If Sasha can FINALLY pull it together, I'd like to see her win bronze, with Irina with the silver if her health holds up.
It's too late for me to think rationally about the other disciplines.
Rgirl
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
If tradition holds up, and she skates well, Carolina will win.
Joe
Joe
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