Oh Well There are Still the Silver and Bronze medals...

[Blades of Passion]

That's a very good point. Let's see, other short programs with the typical 3-2, 3, 2A layout get around 60, some a bit above, some a bit lower. Now deduct from Kim's 76 points the Triple Flip, perhaps she pops it, - still 71. Let's say she pops the Flip and falls on the 2A - we are still at 67 points. Let's say she pops the Flip, falls on the 2A and on the 3T at the end of the 3-3. Makes 63 points. Now we are close to the highest scores of the other ladies this season. I know that it's not done this way, and that a program with such three glaring mistakes might also get lower PCS. But it's kind of scary nevertheless.

You are forgetting about the points she would lose from the +GOE she would normally get from those elements as well.

Popping the Flip would be -6.5 on the tech score and a small deduction in PCS. If she also falls on the Double Axel, that would be about 5 more points off from the tech score and a sizable drop in PCS. She would score about 61 points with those two mistakes (and possibly not make the final flight of skaters).

 

[R.D.]

I get your point but I don't think she's ever has a 30 point lead after the short.

I was being facetious- well, sorta

 

[wonderlen3000]

I don't think she will get 30 points lead either. She could get at least 10 points lead over skaters with clean 3+2, 3, 2A jumps. If Miki 3+3 get credited and she is clean with the rest, she can be with in 6-8 points from Yuna.

Yuna normally get +5-6 points from her jumps alone and her spins/spirals tend to get +GOE (it meets the requirement for high level, never the less nothing special). And she will get 2-3 points advantage on the PCS in SP as well.

The only question is how many mistake she will make in the long. If she pop one jump and fall on another like last year GPF, and somebody else is clean and land 6-7 triples jump, they might be able to take it over.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Well i would have to mostly disagree completely with you

Plush is not a lock for the gold medal. Yes he has regained his jumps but he is not unbeatable. The field at COR was not as strong as the competition he'll face at Euros and worlds. He is still coming back off a 3 and half year hiaitus and even he has succumbed to Olympic pressure before in 2002.

As for Kim being a lock for the gold i'll just remind you that during the GP season in 2006 all that was written about the ladies was that Irina would wni the gold, there was no question anyone was going to win - she was winning by big margins and looked unstoppable. everyone was slating the judging and claiming she could go on the ice and do armpit farts and still win and we know how that ended.

Shen and zho are not "returning" they actually have returned and won the pairs competition at Cup of China at the weekend. They are by now means unbeatable and lot will depend on the performances.

When has it ever happened that all the favourites won the gold at an Olympics?

Ant

First: armpit farts (boys...)

But I agree with all of the above... I would actually be more surprised if Yuna won... it just doesn't jell with the modern reality of how flukey the Olympics have become... the only OGM I'd be surprised about is B/A NOT winning in Ice Dance. For a bunch of reasons: talent, politics, experience, reputation and politics. It would be bad form.

But let me state for the record: I am praying to the skate gods that Shen & Zhao finally win... they've earned it. And by earned it, I mean it in that very emotional, not quanitifable way of sports... its their turn. Granted, the same can be said of Michelle & Armpit Farting Irina but this just feels WRONG for them NOT to win...

Edited to add: I'd be SHOCKED if Plushy didn't win... I mean, arrogance aside (which, because I'm sick & twisted, I LOVE LOVE LOVE) - I think he has that same competitive zazazu that Katt had... he won't allow himself to lose combined with talent level... and that's a different beast that I don't see any of the other men having - Evan maybe, but he doesn't have the talent level.

 

[Tonichelle]

KW - you forget, in ice dance politics - North Americans do not wear Olympic gold.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

How many North American teams actually deserved it?

 

[TCAngel18]

How many North American teams actually deserved it?

belbin/agosto in 2006, in 2002 Bourne/Kraatz definitely deserved gold medal contention over the russians and the italians that year, and both Bourne/Kraatz and Punsalan/Swallow deserved 2/3 higher places in 98, imo

 

[katha]

belbin/agosto in 2006, in 2002 Bourne/Kraatz definitely deserved gold medal contention over the russians and the italians that year, and both Bourne/Kraatz and Punsalan/Swallow deserved 2/3 higher places in 98, imo

Well, this just shows how completely subjective ice dance can be IMO. I thought B/A deserved their Olympic medal because all their competitors messed up so badly in the OD. But at Worlds to me they lucked out with their bronze, in my view Denkova/Staviski, Dubreuil/Lauzon and Delobel/Schoenfelder all had stronger programs. You could even throw in Drobiazko/Vanagas with their strong FD (their other competition parts were clearly weaker, though).

In 2002 B/K pretty much screwed up their own chances with the mistake in the FD. I would have had them in front of F-P/M as well, so we agree on that. But IMO A/P and L/A were the just winners of gold and silver. And at Worlds that year the result was justifiable as well, at least were 1 and 2 were concerned, L/A had a good FD, though perhaps a bit over the top, B/K's FD was great except for the lame slow section, but L/A had the clearly superior OD IMO, so I was OK with that outcome.

Perhaps this should go into some sort of unpopular opinions thread, but I don't care for B/K's Riverdance. A/P's Romeo and Juliet was clearly superior in terms of choreography and construction IMO. And for me the two Russian pairs were in a league of their own. But B/K were third in the FD portion, so that wasn't the problem...what really killed them was their much too easy OD IMO. I would say that the judges were even too kind to give them fourth place in that portion, I found L/A clearly better.

Punsalan/Swallow were absolutely lowballed, though, I agree. Their FD that year is one of my favourite dances ever. But perhaps the judges were seeing no potential in them anymore to advance further? Or it was backlash against the seemingly endless string of Latin FDs they had tortured everybody with the years prior?

I guess my point is that there is obvious politicking going on in dance, but IMO it comes from all directions. Doesn't Shpilband have a reputation for being brilliant at it? Last I checked he mostly trains North American teams. Linichuk now trains B/A and presumably backs them with the judges. Why is it evil when she does it for Russian teams but A-OK when it's done for the Americans? For the record, I think the pair most injured in the past for not having a proper lobby were Delobel/Schoenfelder, and they are not North American. IMO they got the full backlash of A/P winning Olympic gold and the French Federation being involved in the judging scandal. So with their federation in disarray there was no one there to back them and they "accidentally" landed in fourth place three years in a row behind teams they had IMO clearly outskated.

Erm, I realize that this isn't actually an ice dance topic, so sorry for dragging it down this path...

 

[antmanb]

First: armpit farts (boys...)

While i would love to take credit for that all by myself, it was a genuine quote from a poster on another board. I want to say it was on RSSIF but i think by then it was defunct, so maybe it was the skatefans yahoo list! Anyway I laughed at the time, and more so for the egg on their face after Irina did more tan armpit farts but still didn't take home the gold!

KW - you forget, in ice dance politics - North Americans do not wear Olympic gold.

But maybe having Russian coaches has changed that somewhat?

Ant

 

[MissIzzy]

I guess my point is that there is obvious politicking going on in dance, but IMO it comes from all directions. Doesn't Shpilband have a reputation for being brilliant at it? Last I checked he mostly trains North American teams.

I'm wondering about the so-called power of Shilband. It seems every time some other team finishes lower than expected in a junior event, there are accounts that he rigged it, but in the senior events? He still doesn't have a team that's won anything bigger than Four Continents. He had Tanith and Ben floating around near the top since 2006, and when they left he still had two top teams that were still left fighting each other for bronze at Worlds last year(okay, Virtue and Moir were injured, but still...). Surely if he was this political mastermind, he should have squeaked out something at some point by now.
It'll be interesting to see what happens at the GPF, when the European judges presumably won't care and he'll have a free field to square off against Linichuk. Quality-wise I suspect all three teams could go any way in relation to each other. If Virtue and Moir skate clean but lose this one he won't be much of a political mastermind then.

 

[Tonichelle]

But maybe having Russian coaches has changed that somewhat?

Ant

isn't Igor Russian? they've always had a "Russian coach" who has a lot of political pull within the skating community....

 

[janetfan]

Now hold on there a minute!

Haven't you Dance fans been reading the other topics?
Favoritism and politics have been eliminated from skating thanks to Speedy and CoP. :

 

[Tonichelle]

as a fan of the CoP I agree that it's more possible than if they'd been in the 6.0 system. They'd have not had a prayer.

 

[TCAngel18]

Well, this just shows how completely subjective ice dance can be IMO. I thought B/A deserved their Olympic medal because all their competitors messed up so badly in the OD. But at Worlds to me they lucked out with their bronze, in my view Denkova/Staviski, Dubreuil/Lauzon and Delobel/Schoenfelder all had stronger programs. You could even throw in Drobiazko/Vanagas with their strong FD (their other competition parts were clearly weaker, though).

In 2002 B/K pretty much screwed up their own chances with the mistake in the FD. I would have had them in front of F-P/M as well, so we agree on that. But IMO A/P and L/A were the just winners of gold and silver. And at Worlds that year the result was justifiable as well, at least were 1 and 2 were concerned, L/A had a good FD, though perhaps a bit over the top, B/K's FD was great except for the lame slow section, but L/A had the clearly superior OD IMO, so I was OK with that outcome.

Perhaps this should go into some sort of unpopular opinions thread, but I don't care for B/K's Riverdance. A/P's Romeo and Juliet was clearly superior in terms of choreography and construction IMO. And for me the two Russian pairs were in a league of their own. But B/K were third in the FD portion, so that wasn't the problem...what really killed them was their much too easy OD IMO. I would say that the judges were even too kind to give them fourth place in that portion, I found L/A clearly better.

Punsalan/Swallow were absolutely lowballed, though, I agree. Their FD that year is one of my favourite dances ever. But perhaps the judges were seeing no potential in them anymore to advance further? Or it was backlash against the seemingly endless string of Latin FDs they had tortured everybody with the years prior?

I guess my point is that there is obvious politicking going on in dance, but IMO it comes from all directions. Doesn't Shpilband have a reputation for being brilliant at it? Last I checked he mostly trains North American teams. Linichuk now trains B/A and presumably backs them with the judges. Why is it evil when she does it for Russian teams but A-OK when it's done for the Americans? For the record, I think the pair most injured in the past for not having a proper lobby were Delobel/Schoenfelder, and they are not North American. IMO they got the full backlash of A/P winning Olympic gold and the French Federation being involved in the judging scandal. So with their federation in disarray there was no one there to back them and they "accidentally" landed in fourth place three years in a row behind teams they had IMO clearly outskated.

Erm, I realize that this isn't actually an ice dance topic, so sorry for dragging it down this path...

i see your points, and i do concede to most, except all your points about Lobacheva/Averbukh...ugh, i have never been a fan of them, they were like the ice dance version of Laetitia Hubert to me...flashes of brilliance sometimes, but much to stalky and too out there to make a substantial impact. They lucked out completely when Krylova/Ovsiannikov got injured and retired, and jumped in as the new #1 Russian team in 02, when i believe their placements after were undeserved...they did not dance to me, they did tricks, and lifts, and twizzles...they did not dance...i believe a/p fp/m and b/k all were dancers, not l/a....

 

[jcoates]

Two observations.

First, I agree with the other posters that none of the disciplines are set in stone. At least one mild to major surprise usually happens in skating at each Olympics among the winners, or at least the medalists. Someone almost always bombs. Specific to Plushenko, his talent is not the issue I think may affect him this season. It's the construction of his programs, particularly the FS. In the last cycle, no man clearly challenged him consistently. 2005 Worlds don't count b/c he did not compete. Barring weird circumstances (Sandhu), when he was on the ice, he won. He really had no trouble adjusting to the technical demands of the IJS. So by Torino, he had built up so much credit with the judges, that IMO, his PCS were wildly inflated to match his high TES. Looking at his COR PCS scores from this season in the FS, he does not seem to have been given as much benefit of the doubt. That may be b/c over the last few seasons, other skaters (Chan, Takahashi, Kozuka, Verner, Buttle, Lysacek, Oda) have skated better constructed programs and closed the PCS gap by proving they can skate cleanly at times. Judges may expect more from Plushenko in that regard given those factors. If he raises his level in that regard, he will increase his advantage. However, he is a proud (in the best sense) man who has gotten to where is his by doing things his way. So he may choose to stick with what he knows. We'll see how other skaters' scores and performances push the envelope.

The second observation is about Schpilband's political influence versus other coaches, chiefly Linichuk. If I'm correct, he's been coaching elite skaters for about ten years less than Linichuk. So, Punsalan and Swallow were really his first top team and he had less of a high profile with the judges in the 90s and early 2000s.

One of the historical explanations for US, and to some extent Canadian, ice dancers lagging behind Russians in the standings over the decades has been that our coaches just did not engage as much in the same back room dealing/conversation the Russians did. As a coach of mostly American teams in the 90s, it would have made sense for that practice of "non-intervention" to be adopted by Schpilband, especially if his skaters and USFSA supported that philosophy. Over time, Schpilband's teams have gone from top 10 contenders to World and Olympic medalists. So I think his stock has gone up and, at the same time, the dance world has become less centered around Russian dominance. Those factors, along with his own skaters' performance, may make his apparent lack of politicking less necessary. Time will tell.

 

[Dyan]

Entire Post

katha,

I did like Riverdance strictly from an entertainment point of view but I don't think it was that great of a competitive program. I've always found it unfortunate that since Riverdance was B&K's olympic FD, it was hyped so much and many feel it was their signature dance. IMHO High Society was a better program and to me it represented B&K's style far better.

As for the politicking, yes it happens and IMO it becomes even more pronounced in an olympic year but if the teams in contention weren't good enough to win medals on their own the various federations (the NA federations included) wouldn't be able to get away with pushing for this or that team. I'm definitely not saying that I condone any politicking but IMO the majority of the time the teams that win deserved their medals anyway and probably didn't need any extra pushing to get their final placements.

Igor Shpilband is a good example of that. It's true that so far he hasn't been able to get one of his teams to that top step (except in the junior division) but I agree with MissIzzy. If Igor was really that good then he would have coached a senior world or olympic champion by now. I also think that despite his and Marina Zoueva's hit or miss choreography, Igor's students have been noted for their technical prowess. Even the students who haven't had exemplary technique have been capable of doing the most difficult technical content in the world; especially under CoP. IMO another case of yeah he could have politicked but he really didn't need to.

I also think that P&S deserved higher placements in the 97/98 season but the way things worked under the 6.0 system, unfortunately team P&S did themselves in. They finally came up with a pair of programs that showed how good they had gotten as skaters but even that came at the end of the season after they presented yet another bland Latin dance. It's not fair but I agree once more with katha that P&S suffered from all the years of blah Latin FD's. I think that the dancers should be judged by what they do at the moment and I think P&S should have beaten B&A in the FD in Nagano and Minneapolis but that didn't happen. It's almost as if the Oblivion tango was too little too late.

 

[seniorita]

As for Plushenko, for all the finger waving, who has the all-time highest PB of the current men? (not Plushenko). Who received the highest score so far this season? (not Plushenko, either). Plushenko won against the weakest GP field so far, and while he appears to have the jumps, there's no way of knowing how the judges will evaluate him against a stronger group of skaters than he faced in Moscow.

Plushy didnt need to have SB score, he needed to have a good first appearance after a 3 year pause without maximazing his jumps lay out, just have a good skate or even win the event to put his mark. Pretty much what Jouby needed and did in NHK. Nevertheless, Jouby has now the SB in Sp and 9s in PCS (and I m glad it didnt rise controversy this time) and I propose everyone to start chasing after Jouby cause he might be the man to beat, he came back really strong and determnined and leave Plushy in peace. If he actually lands 3 quads in his Lp, it will be tought even for Plush. I m really surprised though to see 3 quads in a program and that to determine Olys, because while in 2002 two quads was the norm to be on podium, since then the road has been different.

Anyway while Kim is more of a lock for gold, Plushy is not even a keyhole for gold now, it is too early and media rushed to make judgements, he just did a good first skate which was quite an accomplishment anyway. Mishin was pretty honest in his interview, when was asked if Plush is the best in mens' skating now, he said no, but they will work alot to that goal.

From what I saw of NHK everybody needs to start skating well (Lp was a disaster and I m so sad for Kozuka and Takahashi) and then maybe afterwards start focusing to beat someone specifically, I dont believe it is Plushenko that would make them lose their concetration and splat cause Plush was not even in NHK.
Wouldnt it be ridicusly funny if everyone focused to beat Plushenko in Olys and someone from the lower ranks just had the skate of his life and beat all??

 

[Spun Silver]

Wouldnt it be ridicusly funny if everyone focused to beat Plushenko in Olys and someone from the lower ranks just had the skate of his life and beat all??

Hey, are you calling Chan, Lambiel, and Takahashi the lower ranks? :scowl:

 

[Tango_D_R]

Hey, are you calling Chan, Lambiel, and Takahashi the lower ranks? :scowl:

I think by his post they fall in the category : everyone. and the lower ranks will be someone like Ten, really unexpected ones to grab a gold

 

[Hsuhs]

someone like Ten, really unexpected ones to grab a gold

Ten? I thought PCS's invented to prevent that from happening.