Olympic Team Competition Predictions

[andromache]

Russia has more chances for gold if the team event is before individual. Outside Medvedeva there are only some gold chances in pairs. The value of team gold in Russia is similar to individual. Maybe Adelina's case was different as she was the first ever. Anyway, team members get the same medals, money, and cars as individual OGM winners. They also receive the highest rank among Russian athletes: the honored master of sports. In fact Yulia is the one and Evgeniya is not yet - she is just international master of sports same as Liza. One small spoiler for ego is that they are announced not as Olympic champions but as Olympic champions in team event (it was in Chelyabinsk). But this is bearable, I guess. As Medvedeva looks invincible and capable of winning all 4 programs, I guess, the team event will be of the utmost importance to the Fed.

That's also what I'm thinking - since Russia *probably* doesn't have a very good chance at medals in men and dance, the best competitors in those disciplines (Mikhail and B/S, presumably) can and should go all out for the team event. They will then be competing against a Canadian saving his strength for the individual (Patrick) and either V/M saving their strength or W/P. On the American side, S/S will probably save their strength and C/B are definitely beatable by B/S. Nathan Chen putting his all into the team event could help the US out a lot, but if he's at the Olympics I expect he will care more about an individual medal, even if his chances are about the same as Mikhail's.

Just from a cultural standpoint, I think the team event matters more to Russia than it does to the US. I know from my perspective as a US fan that the individual events mean much more to me than the team events. Not sure about Canada.

It'll be interesting to see how Russia strategizes with their pairs. Both S/K and T/M could have realistic chances at individual golds, so will they skate safe in the team event and save their best for individual? Or does the fed have one team do both team programs and one team focus on individual OGM? Not competing in the team event at all can be very beneficial in the individual, as we saw with Adelina.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

It'll be Russia vs. Canada for gold again. I think Canada will have a better shot than Sochi, given Russia will be pressed to perform as well as they did in Sochi AND also get the benefits of home judging that helped them pull away that much more (e.g. ignoring Lipnitskaia's flutz so she could beat Kostner in the team SP + Plushenko being propped over Reynolds and arguably Machida too in the team FS). Even without the home judging, they deserved to win for sure, but they won't get the same love this time, I don't think - especially in South Korea, lol.

I think France and Italy will be more detrimental to Russia too - with Bobrova/Soloviev getting the Russian push, you still have Papadakis/Cizeron and Cappellini/Lanotte who could conceivably beat them and create distance between the Canadians and them.

Russia still stands to win both Ladies' SP, pending a mistake (and then a clean Osmond/Miyahara could surpass them). And assuming it's Medvedeva in the FS, they will likely win that segment.

Pairs is also a big question mark, given that the Germans/Canadians/Chinese all have the potential to prevent the Russians from winning those segments. Osmond is also stronger (even Daleman too) and will likely add more points to team Canada.

I'm guessing the Canadian team choices will be:
Men: Chan
Ladies: Daleman (SP) / Osmond (FS)
Pairs: D/R
Ice Dance: Weaver/Poje (SD) / Virtue/Moir (FD)
(This is also pretty fair, given that Pairs and Men had 2 entries last time around.)

Russia's team choices I'm guessing will be:
Men: Kolyada
Ladies: Medvedeva + one other Russian girl (Pogo/Rad/Zag/Tsur likely)
Pairs: Some combination of T/M, S/K or V/T
Ice Dance: B/S

It's a bit of a toss up because the Men and Pairs could go either way and Ladies will surely go to Russia and Ice Dance to Canada. Canada will have a much better shot, but it's hard to say if they will win for sure (especially since last time Canada was the faves on paper and then Russia exceeded expectations).

 

[TGee]

Interesting discussion, early or not. After all, we can only make the best prediction based on current information. And a year can be an eternity in skating careers.

I agree that the Podium will be Canada, Russia and the US - order TBD. This is mainly due to other countries having weak disciplines and there being a bigger group for the SPs and SD.

One thought I'd like to put in the mix is that the team event can draw out the best in a competitor. Kevin Reynolds delivered the performance of his life in the FS at Sochi.....and has a medal to show for it. I wouldn't count him out of doing the same again in 2018, and I can think of both Russians and Americans who might do the same.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I'm guessing the Canadian team choices will be:
Men: Chan
Ladies: Daleman (SP) / Osmond (FS)
Pairs: D/R
Ice Dance: Weaver/Poje (SD) / Virtue/Moir (FD)
(This is also pretty fair, given that Pairs and Men had 2 entries last time around.)

I would be shocked if two men didn't compete. If the schedule is like Sochi, there are only 3 days of rest between the team event LP and the men's SP. I don't think that's ideal for a gold medal contender.

 

[olayolay]

The 2018 Olympics schedule has not yet been announced.

FWIW, on *draft* versions of the schedule, the team event has come before the individual events.
But again, the official schedule has not yet been announced.

Do you have a link to these draft schedules?

 

[Skater Boy]

#AUSTRALIAFORTHETEAMEVENT

That is all.

Considering there is no sure bet top ten skater/team in any discipline I don't think Austrialia is being considered in fact they might not even qualify to skate in all events.

 

[Skater Boy]

I would be shocked if two men didn't compete. If the schedule is like Sochi, there are only 3 days of rest between the team event LP and the men's SP. I don't think that's ideal for a gold medal contender.

But I rather doubt Chan is a gold medal contender unless you are talking Reynolds who I also don't think is a gold medal contender maybe top ten.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I would be shocked if two men didn't compete. If the schedule is like Sochi, there are only 3 days of rest between the team event LP and the men's SP. I don't think that's ideal for a gold medal contender.

Well, TBH, D/R are a much greater OGM contender (and V/M too). I guess they could do it like last time and have Reynolds or Nguyen (whoever the Canadian #2 is) compete in the FS so they can do no worse than 5th (probably 4th, since 5th will likely be a country weaker in men's).

Frankly, I hope there isn't a team event since it did seem to compromise individual performances. And frankly the top 3 are locked in with all other countries who have a weak discipline(s) vying for 4th and 5th, so it's not exactly the fairest of fights. Seems just a way to dole out extra medals (and I say this knowing Canada is virtually undoubtedly one of the recipients, a gold medal fave at that).

 

[gravy]

Can we get real Gravy, Kaetlyn Osmond skated a flawless short program in the Team event, complete with her trademark huge jumps and her 3/3, and was held to a 62 and change, or 5th place, putting Canada in a catch up position behind Russia, Italy, Japan, and the US. As a result of the placement being 10 points behind Yulia after the SP, it affected Canada chances for OG.

While her LP was not flawless, she placed 3rd in TCS behind Yulia and Gracie, and again with lower than usual PCS ('cause we all know she lacks performance & skating ability...ahem!) it left her in 6th place. Overall, her debut and contribution in the Team event, can hardly be called a meltdown, as the table had been set for Russian Gold.

I suppose you would call Kevin Reynolds performance versus Plushy another meltdown? Similar to KO, I would call it a Helddown.

I agree with you that nothing is certain, particularly when you skate on home ice.

It'd do you some good to actually read my post. I was clearly talking about her meltdown in the free at 2013 Worlds.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

But I rather doubt Chan is a gold medal contender unless you are talking Reynolds who I also don't think is a gold medal contender maybe top ten.

Well, that remains to be determined. Hanyu and Fernandez are the putative OGM contenders, but Chan beat Hanyu at Skate Canada. And Chen/Uno both soundly beat Hanyu and Fernandez in the FS at the GPF (beating Fernandez overall). Obviously if everyone skates their best, Chan will not win, but he is still in the hunt - after all, he almost cleared 100 points in the SP this year, and less than a year ago cleared 200 points (and has upped his difficulty since). It will require his absolute best to have a shot to win while others with more quads can afford mistakes, but anything can happen (as we saw in Sochi).

Reynolds however, is definitely not an OGM contender. Even if he goes absolutely clean in both programs he will definitely not get the PCS/GOE needed to come close to the podium, let alone win. However, I hope he pulls some of his Sochi team FS brilliance out of the hat. He seems to be hitting his stride more this season so we may yet see him in another team competition.

 

[gravy]

Well, TBH, D/R are a much greater OGM contender (and V/M too). I guess they could do it like last time and have Reynolds or Nguyen (whoever the Canadian #2 is) compete in the FS so they can do no worse than 5th (probably 4th, since 5th will likely be a country weaker in men's).

Frankly, I hope there isn't a team event since it did seem to compromise individual performances. And frankly the top 3 are locked in with all other countries who have a weak discipline(s) vying for 4th and 5th, so it's not exactly the fairest of fights. Seems just a way to dole out extra medals (and I say this knowing Canada is virtually undoubtedly one of the recipients, a gold medal fave at that).

If they have to include the team event which I'm also not a fan of, I really hope they change the point system so there's some differentiation between the short and free. It's stupid that last in the short will give you 1 point, but last in the free will give you 6.

 

[Osmond4gold]

It'd do you some good to actually read my post. I was clearly talking about her meltdown in the free at 2013 Worlds.

You insinuated that the expectation was that Canada was considered the favorite for Team Gold at the OG, but were denied by "Lipnitskaya emerges" and "Plushy awakens" . Again, I stand by my statement that scores for Osmond/Reynolds were not reflective of performances, leading to a gap and assuring an eventual Russian victory.

 

[ice coverage]

#AUSTRALIAFORTHETEAMEVENT

That is all.

Considering there is no sure bet top ten skater/team in any discipline I don't think Austrialia is being considered in fact they might not even qualify to skate in all events.

It is not a prerequisite to have a top ten skater in any discipline.
In 2014, Ukraine qualified for the Olympic team event.

And a country needs to compete in only three disciplines in the team event.
(Plus a country in the team event is allowed one entry in the team event from the Additional Athletes quota, so in theory, I think [but am not sure about this part] that a country could amass enough qualifying points for the team event even if it has skaters who qualify for individual Olympic events in only two disciplines.)

#AustraliaForTheTeamEvent

---

If they have to include the team event which I'm also not a fan of, I really hope they change the point system so there's some differentiation between the short and free. ...

The 2018 team event is happening, and team results will be based on the same point system as in 2014.
I linked to the 2018 ISU document above.
(The only significant forthcoming change in the 2018 document that I would expect would be a random draw for the SP starting orders for the team event [in addition to the individual events].)

---

... Just from a cultural standpoint, I think the team event matters more to Russia than it does to the US. I know from my perspective as a US fan that the individual events mean much more to me than the team events. ...

As a U.S. fan, I have a different point of view.
For me, I am very mindful that thanks to the Sochi team event, six U.S. figure skaters came home with their first and only Olympic medal (to date).
For at least some of the 2018 U.S. skaters, the team event again will be their only realistic shot at a 2018 medal, and I will be super-happy for them if they earn a team medal.
I will care a lot about the team medals, at the same time that I continue to care about medals in individual disciplines too.

 

[StitchMonkey]

To semi echo karne's posts.... i think i am more curious to see what countries make the comp than who wins it.

 

[gravy]

You insinuated that the expectation was that Canada was considered the favorite for Team Gold at the OG, but were denied by "Lipnitskaya emerges" and "Plushy awakens".

OK? I don't see how that has anything to do with Osmond having a meltdown at 2013 Worlds?

And just a semantics thing: Canada wasn't "denied" anything. Russia deservedly won.

Again, I stand by my statement that scores for Osmond/Reynolds were not reflective of performances, leading to a gap and assuring an eventual Russian victory.

Cool story.

 

[gravy]

The 2018 team event is happening, and team results will be based on the same point system as in 2014.
I linked to the 2018 ISU document above.
(The only significant forthcoming change in the 2018 document that I would expect would be a random draw for the SP starting orders for the team event [in addition to the individual events].)

Great...

Thanks for the info. I totally forgot about having a random draw at the Olympics; it'll be just like the old days. I do wonder how angry NBC is though since they requested an early morning event to air the competition live for primetime in the US. They better hope the Americans have late draws.

 

[karne]

Considering there is no sure bet top ten skater/team in any discipline I don't think Austrialia is being considered in fact they might not even qualify to skate in all events.

Goes to show your ignorance of how the Olympic team event actually works, considering we were first reserve team last time. We will (barring injury/unforeseen circumstances) likely qualify in three of the four disciplines for Korea and with the increased depth of all our disciplines since Sochi we will almost certainly pick up more points than we did last time.

#AUSTRALIAFORTHETEAMEVENT and may they kick some backside.

 

[Osmond4gold]

OK? I don't see how that has anything to do with Osmond having a meltdown at 2013 Worlds?

How does finishing 8th, at 17 years, in your first Worlds with an international seasons best score, after finishing 10th in Junior Worlds the year previous constitutes a meltdown? A meltdown based on what...her previous experiences at Worlds? Her rise to the upper echelons of skating was meteorite like. She finished in 8th in arguably the best field ever, slightly behind Ashley and Gracie, and just ahead of Liza and Adelina. By doing so, she more than surpassed her personal goals and the expectations of others, and succeeded in Canada getting 2 spots at the Olympic games in Sochi and Worlds, which was the goal for Skate Canada. This created opportunities for not only Katelyn, but for a skater like Daleman, to attend the Olympics in 2014.

The only meltdown here is your argument, gravy.

 

[4everchan]

How does finishing 8th, at 17 years, in your first Worlds with an international seasons best score, after finishing 10th in Junior Worlds the year previous constitutes a meltdown? A meltdown based on what...her previous experiences at Worlds? Her rise to the upper echelons of skating was meteorite like. She finished in 8th in arguably the best field ever, slightly behind Ashley and Gracie, and just ahead of Liza and Adelina. By doing so, she more than surpassed her personal goals and the expectations of others, and succeeded in Canada getting 2 spots at the Olympic games in Sochi and Worlds, which was the goal for Skate Canada. This creating opportunities for not only Katelyn, but for a skater like Daleman, to attend the Olympics in 2014.

The only meltdown here is your argument, gravy.

A few years ago, at Xmas, someone was making gravy and it wasn't thickening... and she had a meltdown too ... Gotta tell you, these gravy meltdowns are tough to handle!

 

[gravy]

How does finishing 8th, at 17 years, in your first Worlds with an international seasons best score, after finishing 10th in Junior Worlds the year previous constitutes a meltdown? A meltdown based on what...her previous experiences at Worlds? Her rise to the upper echelons of skating was meteorite like. She finished in 8th in arguably the best field ever, slightly behind Ashley and Gracie, and just ahead of Liza and Adelina. By doing so, she more than surpassed her personal goals and the expectations of others, and succeeded in Canada getting 2 spots at the Olympic games in Sochi and Worlds, which was the goal for Skate Canada. This creating opportunities for not only Katelyn, but for a skater like Daleman, to attend the Olympics in 2014.

The only meltdown here is your argument, gravy.

That and Osmond's free skate at 2013 Worlds with 2 falls and several pops. :sarcasm: