Other factors

[Tinymavy15]

in answer to the original question, i hope that 2007 ladies chmpion puts out a clean, dramatic, daring, artistic, emotionl perofrmncae. may the lady(of whatever nationallity) that does this be the winner!

 

[chuckm]

Sorry, most of the Japanese are not interested in pairs and dance.

That's because they have never been able to get to medal contention in either event. The Chinese weren't interested, either, until Shen/Zhao won their first medal.

 

[Spun Silver]

This thread, along with the thread about whether Mao will break 200, raises the question of whether the ISU ought to tweak the factoring of the PCSs to bring the two scores back into parity.

The reason that the ladies' program component scores are factored by .80 for the SP and 1.60 for the LP is to keep the PCSs of roughly the same importance as the technical scores. For instance, 2003 Skate America Sasha had TES = 32.50 and PCS = 33.96, while the next week at Skate Canada she got 37.20 + 33.92. This is the ballance that the CoP evisioned.

But at 2006 NHK Mao's scores were TES = 40.30 and PCS = 29.20. This is way out of whack, reflecting the fact that the sport is advancing technically so fast that the artistic side can't keep up. Maybe next year they should change the weighting on the PCSs to something like 1.00 and 2.00 for ladies and 1.25 and 2.50 for men.

Mao would have got an extra 7.3 points on the PCSs at NHK, giving her 40.30 + 36.50.

I don't understand this reasoning. Why SHOULD they be in parity? What if a skater is one-sided?

 

[krenseby]

Please pray for Mao's injury, otherwise, the US ladies might not win worlds and olympics for a while. Mao said before whatever the result at Vancouver, she will continue until 2014.

Well, the dominance of a single skater is never so huge that she wins 4 Worlds in a row. In any case, saratore, I hope you can recognize not only Mao but other women in the field as talented skaters capable of winning Worlds, either this year or in years to come.

Yu-Na Kim, for example. Or Yukari Nakano. Or Carolina Costner. ;-)

 

[satorare]

I think Mao deserves all the hypes.

At NHK trophy, she earned almost 200 points with two mistakes.
This score is practically impossible for Kim's potentials, and definitely enough to win this year's worlds (unless Ando skates perfectly WITH a quad).

At GPF, the difference between flawless Kim and four times mistaken Mao was ONLY 12 points. At last years Jr Worlds, Kim's score was 24 points higher than three times mistaken Mao. This means Mao made a great progress in this season. I guess who be shocked the most was Kim herself. It's clear that Mao can beat Kim with 2 or 3 mistakes.

Mao will be able to reach 210 mark with perfect performances. In short, she can almost always win even with one big or two minor mistakes.

 

[Mathman]

I don't understand this reasoning. Why SHOULD they be in parity? What if a skater is one-sided?

I don't know about should, but I think it was the original intention of the CoP that this would turn out to be the case. Under 6.0 scoring the two marks were given equal weight, except for tie-breaking.

Any individual skater might be stronger on one side than the other, but I think the reasoning was that overall it is the balance between artistry and technical prowess that distinguishes and defines figure skating.

I would have to look at a lot of numbers to see whether there is cause for concern or whether Mao is just a dramatic exception. For instance, here are the scores for the ladies free skate at the Grand Prix Final (TES+PCS):

Kim: 61.78 + 57.36
Meier: 56.82 + 54.00
Suguri: 48.12 + 55.52
Asada: 48.14 + 57.04
Sebestyen: 41.69 + 51.60
Ando: 35.40 + 54.40

(um, never mind )

 

[Mathman]

Personally, I don't get too excited about comparing skaters' potential "if both skate clean." They rarely do, and the contest is decided by mistakes.

 

[krenseby]

I don't know about should, but I think it was the original intention of the CoP that this would turn out to be the case. Under 6.0 scoring the two marks were given equal weight, except for tie-breaking.

Any individual skater might be stronger on one side than the other, but I think the reasoning was that overall it is the balance between artistry and technical prowess that distinguishes and defines figure skating.

I would have to look at a lot of numbers to see whether there is cause for concern or whether Mao is just a dramatic exception. For instance, here are the scores for the ladies free skate at the Grand Prix Final (TES+PCS):

Kim: 61.78 + 57.36
Meier: 56.82 + 54.00
Suguri: 48.12 + 55.52
Asada: 48.14 + 57.04
Sebestyen: 41.69 + 51.60
Ando: 35.40 + 54.40

(um, never mind )

the range of the PCS scores is 51-57, with most falling between 54-57 with the exception of Sebestyen. The TES range is from about 40-60 with the exception of Ando's score of 35.

It's obvious that most skaters at the GP final had much more of a differential in their TES than PCS scores. This basically means that PCS cannot be relied to make up for significate deficits in TES scores. Only for two ladies with pretty much the same TES can the PCS play the deciding role in who comes out on top.

I guess this helps me answer my own question. Only for two ladies with pretty much identical TES scores can a PCS score be used to score a win. Otherwise, it plays no role whatsoever. Under the 6.0 system, however, the artistic scores could have brought up a skater who was behind in the jumps to win over a skater with better jumps but with a worse artistic performance.

 

[krenseby]

I think Mao deserves all the hypes.

At NHK trophy, she earned almost 200 points with two mistakes.
This score is practically impossible for Kim's potentials, and definitely enough to win this year's worlds (unless Ando skates perfectly WITH a quad).

At GPF, the difference between flawless Kim and four times mistaken Mao was ONLY 12 points. At last years Jr Worlds, Kim's score was 24 points higher than three times mistaken Mao. This means Mao made a great progress in this season. I guess who be shocked the most was Kim herself. It's clear that Mao can beat Kim with 2 or 3 mistakes.

Mao will be able to reach 210 mark with perfect performances. In short, she can almost always win even with one big or two minor mistakes.

satoratore, I grant you that if Mao skates consistently all the time with no mistakes, she will be absolutely unbeatable.

That said, I do wish there were at least one lady who could catch up to her. When someone wins all the time and no one else can beat them, it can get beat pretty boring for the viewers. Take the example of Plushenko. His constant #1 status has certainly brought him glory, but the competitions in which he participated were less fun to watch as a result of it. Knowing that he would win for sure made things less exciting.

 

[iloveaxel]

satoratore, I grant you that if Mao skates consistently all the time with no mistakes, she will be absolutely unbeatable.

That said, I do wish there were at least one lady who could catch up to her. .

Unless there's another lady who can do 3A AND 3+3 consistently. I just don't see it at the moment.

 

[Mathman]

This basically means that PCS cannot be relied to make up for significate deficits in TES scores. Only for two ladies with pretty much the same TES can the PCS play the deciding role in who comes out on top.

Actually, this can be quantitfied pretty directly. For every .25 difference in PCSs across the board (say, 8.0 versus 7.75 for every judge in every category), you gain 1.8 points in the total PCSs in the LP.

So, for instance, a skater who got straight 8.0s would have a 7.2 point advantage over a skater who got straight 7.0s (a triple Axel is worth 7.5).

In practice this effect is mitagated by the fact that if you land all your tech stuff the PCSs tend to go up on their own automatically.

 

[Mathman]

When someone wins all the time and no one else can beat them, it can get beat pretty boring for the viewers. Take the example of Plushenko. His constant #1 status has certainly brought him glory, but the competitions in which he participated were less fun to watch as a result of it. Knowing that he would win for sure made things less exciting.

True, but you can't blame the big dog for winning all the time or his/her fans for cheering for their fave. It's up to the other skaters to do something about it.

(Actually, to me, there have been a lot of very exciting men's competitions for second place behind Plushenko -- so at least we get something for our entertainment dollar. An exhibition skate by Plushenko and a competiution for everyone else.)

 

[blue dog]

Three years away from Vancouver and Satorare is already crowning her Olympic champion? We all know what can happen...

1977 WC - Linda Fratianne...1980 OGM - Anett Poetzsch
1981 WC - Denise Biellmann...1984 OGM - Katarina Witt (OK, so Denise retired...)
1985 WC - Katarina Witt (OK, perhaps this is one of two exceptions) 1988 OGM - Katarina Witt
1989 WC - Midori Ito...1992 OGM Kristi Yamaguchi
1993 WC - Oksana Grischuk...1994 OGM - Oksana Grischuk
1995 WC - Chen Lu...1998 OGM - Tara Lipinski
1999 WC - Maria Butyrskaya...2002 OGM - Sarah Hughes
2003 WC - Michelle Kwan...2006 OGM - Shizuka Arakawa

Should Mao or anyone win worlds this year, the odds are NOT in their favour that they will win the OGM.

But back to the original question--this only happened two times, and both times were under 6.0 and the skater who won basically had the night of their life. The electricity was palpable, even through the television set. Both skaters were technically proficient, and both were competent in artistry...but both times, the lady with fire in her belly took the gold

1996 - Kwan vs Chen
1998 - Lipinski vs Kwan

Of course, you can have all the electricity in the world; the new system doesn't seem to reward the skater whose having the night of their life.

 

[iloveaxel]

1996 - Kwan vs Chen
1998 - Lipinski vs Kwan

.

Kwan did not deserve her 96 win.

Haven't seen 1998.

 

[satorare]

blue dog wants to compare Mao to skaters like Kwan?
I don't see any senses.

In past (at least after Katarina Witt), there was no woman skater who is allowed to make mistakes and still win. The only possible comparison with Mao is Plushenko.

 

[blue dog]

blue dog wants to compare Mao to skaters like Kwan?
I don't see any senses.

In past (at least after Katarina Witt), there was no woman skater who is allowed to make mistakes and still win. The only possible comparison with Mao is Plushenko.

Mao hasn't been around as long as either Kat or Kwan. No comparison. She hasn't withstood the test of time. None of these girls have.

 

[krenseby]

Actually, this can be quantitfied pretty directly. For every .25 difference in PCSs across the board (say, 8.0 versus 7.75 for every judge in every category), you gain 1.8 points in the total PCSs in the LP.

So, for instance, a skater who got straight 8.0s would have a 7.2 point advantage over a skater who got straight 7.0s (a triple Axel is worth 7.5).

In practice this effect is mitagated by the fact that if you land all your tech stuff the PCSs tend to go up on their own automatically.

Yeah the fact that the PCS goes up if all the tech stuff is landed is one of the things that negates the possibility of genuine advantage based on PCS.

But ....... judges could use PCS to tilt the score in favor of a skater that strikes their fancy... Let's pretend that Carolina Kostner has an amazing performance and the judges want to give her a medal ahead of someone who's landed more jumps. They'll merely bring down the PCS of that other competitor and bring Carolina's up. Politiking is possible ;-) Always!!!

 

[demarinis5]

Mao hasn't been around as long as either Kat or Kwan. No comparison. She hasn't withstood the test of time. None of these girls have.

Thank you. All the boasting in the world does not predict the future. Let's just wait and see what happens before we anoint the second coming.

 

[chuckm]

Yeah the fact that the PCS goes up if all the tech stuff is landed is one of the things that negates the possibility of genuine advantage based on PCS.

But ....... judges could use PCS to tilt the score in favor of a skater that strikes their fancy... Let's pretend that Carolina Kostner has an amazing performance and the judges want to give her a medal ahead of someone who's landed more jumps. They'll merely bring down the PCS of that other competitor and bring Carolina's up. Politiking is possible ;-) Always!!!

PCS boosting happens all the time. Despite her bad skates at Torino, Kostner still got fairly high PCS scores at Worlds 2006 (and her skating was still bad). Julia Sebestyen's and Elena Sokolova's PCS scores were held up at Euros even though both ladies had very disappointing skates. The judges tend to give the top skaters high PCS scores even when they don't skate particularly well, and they are stingy with PCS scores for newbies even when they skate very well indeed.

On the opposite side of the coin, skaters who have been lower in the standings for a couple of years and who suddenly improve won't see their scores go up that dramatically. They have to show a consistently high level of performance for their scores to move up. This has affected Joannie Rochette to some degree. Because she is inconsistent, even when she has a really good skate, her scores don't go way up.

Often, once a skater makes the podium at a high-level event (ISU championship), the judges will be inclined to hold those PCS scores up.

 

[Spun Silver]

This all sounds so weird to a non-skating fan. Aren't PCS supposed to have some objectivity in measuring *different* aspects of skating - not just mirroring the tech scores or being used to place skaters who are essentially judged before they even skate?