My very amateurish view as an innocent viewer.

If they had same Tes score or almost same, Lambiel, Taka, Verner and Oda can win over Plush in pcs with the programs they have so far. They are clearly better in some areas and would win with that order I think.
Although it will also matter that night to go out and dont look like a panicked lobster before becoming a spaghetti. I think Plush has the edge there as he never looks anything like it. So does Joub. I dont know for sure if he would win over Plush if they had same technical layout, only reason I dont know is because of personal favorite and how differently I feel when they skate, nothing more. So i dont know to whom judges would give more pcs.
But from the top above only Joubert can reach Plush technically and even pass him. Lysacek cannot reach them in Tes and even if he did, realistically Joub and Plush would still win. For these two, I m not thinking only of what they showed in their grand prix cause it was not same competition for all and it was clear they didn't maximize their program. But unless Chan, Lysacek and some more decide to increase their Tes suddenly at Olys, I think Joubert is the most reliable so far cause like Plushenko he is landing his jumps for years, no matter what happened at TEB.
I can totally understand plush that he counts on his technical score cause it is more objective, it is mathematics and if he lands the jumps he would get the max points he can plus some Goe, while in pcs whatever he will do he cannot be sure how they mark him. I' m pretty sure he knows he is not so far above the rest like 2006 to get rewarded for that and he doesn't count on the high marks he used to get 4 years ago even if he just sneezed on ice.
I think if he skates with the attitude of the reigning OC he can totally sell his performance to have big marks in performance, execution, maybe and interpretation (i m not sure of what but these are all mixed) but that maybe not enough and he needs to be sure he will have the highest tes he can.