Podium Predictions

[Trewyn]

^^ Exactly! I'm making cards for all the top men contenders, I'm having a party with figure skating newbies the night of the LP; before the competition starts everyone has to pick a skater to root for; on the card will be a picture and a bio; my list is:
1. Plushenko
2. Joubert
3. Lysacek
4. Abbott
5. Chan
6. Lambiel
7. Oda
8. Takahashi
9. Weir
10. Verner

But really; any of those guys could medal! Not sure about Kozu's chances; he's a favorite of mine, but he's been a bit underwhelming this season :s. Anyway, I'm crazy excited about the Men's event; I hope most (or all) of the contenders have a good short so the LP will be exciting .
If all guys skate clean; what would the standings after the SP be?

Ladies:
1. Yu Na: I know the favorite hasn't won the Olympics for ages; but if anyone can do it; she can.
2. Miki: She's been crazy consisten lately; or at least scoring consistently high. I thought she should have lost RC to Ashley and she has been making mistakes in every competition this season; so she might not be as strong a contender as it would seem on paper; but still; I think she's a tough competitor and the judges like her even if I don't.
3. an American: just a hunch I have; if Mirai rotates her jumps, it's sure going to be her. OR Akiko Suzuki: she seems to be well on her way to a medal this season; talk abuout having a break through at the right time!

Mao? Joannie? They've been having to many issues lately. But could surprise and upset the top 2!

Ice Dance and Pairs: I have some hopes and expectations; but I know too little of the sports to make predictions.

 

[Bennett]

All of the other ladies had dismal Grand Prix showings as well and have been just as inconsistent as Joannie. Joannie is going into the Olympics with a clean 7 triple performance under her belt - which is more than can be said for some of her competitors.

Yeah, I hope that she pulls it together. If she makes any mistakes, I hope it happens in SP, rather than in LP. I have had an impression that she might have difficulty shaking mistakes off in one performance, which is difficult for everyone, but nonetheless worries me.

The good news is that she has done better in Canada than abroad this season. The Olympics is not only in Canada, but also at the rink that I hear she seems to be used to skating. So if she can turn pressures into positive power, it could do magic for her.

Also, her jumps at Nationals were a lot higher than those earlier in the season, which suggests not only nerves but also her training may be getting better. I hope that her practices go well and that she maintains those good jumps until the Games.

Not having done well earlier this season, she can only improve competitively. This might be better mentally than the other way around. But I somehow worry about her nerves a lot more than Mao's.

 

[R.D.]

Even an Asada or Ando victory would be better IMO

there are four women (IMO) capable of winning Gold that night. It's all about who can step up and deliver when it counts. And I don't particularly care for even one of them...this could be the first Games where my heart is NOT pounding like crazy (unless something completely unthinkable goes down in the SP)

 

[Sk8n Mama]

I don't want Rochette to be that low (7th). If she pulls out two clean programs, she'd get the Gold. If she only makes a couple of mistakes, she would medal.

At the same time, I predict a big bombing potential in Rochette. Unlike Yuna, Miki, and Mao, she's not very much used to pressures. She's already affected so much by the media. Yet, she will be under even stronger pressures at the Games. So I put her under these three ladies.

I have to agree with this. I don't think gold is possible but a podium finish definitely is. But Joannie is so hot and cold. I'm brought back to Worlds in Van where she won the SP only to disaster the LP. Jo usually hits one program or the other but not both. She just did that at Canadians. THe LP was fabulous, the SP was not. She's just not a pressure player. Don't get me wrong, as a Canadian, I want to see her do it, but I don't know if Joannie can pull it off mentally. Though I thought the same about Liz Manley and Jamie Sale & look how they performed at their big Olys. I expect Yu-Na and Mao to be on the top steps pf that podium (assuming Mao and Tarasova are smart enough to get that cheated 3 ax out of the Short). The bronze will be a toss up between Joannie, Miki, Akiko, Carolina & Rachael.....and it will come down to who does it on the day.

You know what's funny about this post? I think we're all closer on who *will* be on the podium than our 'dream podiums' and 'nightmare podiums'.

 

[snowflake]

^^ Exactly! I'm making cards for all the top men contenders, I'm having a party with figure skating newbies the night of the LP; before the competition starts everyone has to pick a skater to root for; on the card will be a picture and a bio; my list is:
1. Plushenko
2. Joubert
3. Lysacek
4. Abbott
5. Chan
6. Lambiel
7. Oda
8. Takahashi
9. Weir
10. Verner

How fun for your newbie (future skating fans?) friends! So they are ten and pick one card each? Party all night then

 

[Trewyn]

We're probably going to be 8, and one card each; I made 10 in case one of them withdraws or doesn't make the freeskate (hopefully that doesn't happen of course) We will have to party all night, since it will be nearly morning here by the time the freeskate ends

 

[bmcc102]

I have never made official predictions on forums for any of the other Olympic Games I was really into, for fear that if I wrote it, I would jinx them, but this year I feel like nothing is really all that set in stone, so...

MEN
1. Plushenko (barf, do not want this to happen at all)
2. Lysacek
3. Lambiel

4. Abbott
5. Oda
6. Joubert
7. Chan
8. Weir
9. Takahashi
10. Verner
(Other than if Plushenko is awarded with huge marks, I think Men's is very exciting this year!)

DANCE
1. Virtue & Moir
2. Davis & White
3. Some European team (probably the Russians)

PAIRS
1. Shen & Zao (Please, please, please!)
2. Savchenko/Szolkowy
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov

LADIES
1. Miki Ando (and I would actually be fine with that. I like her skating this year... and GASP, I like her LP!)
2. Yu-Na Kim (if it were up to me, she wouldn't even be on the podium, although she deserves it if she skates well... just not feeling her skating)
3. Joannie Rochette

4. Rachael Flatt (she'll deliver, I know it!)
5. Mao Asada (mess up 3 axel in SP)
6. Laura Lepisto (will land two actual triples in the LP)
7. Akiko Suzuki
8. Mirai Nagasu (despite skating well, will get unfair downgrade calls)
9. Carolina Kostner (wish she could skate cleanly and get on the podium!!!)
10. Elene G.
11. Kira Korpi (is she going for sure?)
12. Sarah Meier (a favorite of mine!)

 

[miki88]

I have never made official predictions on forums for any of the other Olympic Games I was really into, for fear that if I wrote it, I would jinx them, but this year I feel like nothing is really all that set in stone, so...

MEN
1. Plushenko (barf, do not want this to happen at all)
2. Lysacek
3. Lambiel

4. Abbott
5. Oda
6. Joubert
7. Chan
8. Weir
9. Takahashi
10. Verner
(Other than if Plushenko is awarded with huge marks, I think Men's is very exciting this year!)

DANCE
1. Virtue & Moir
2. Davis & White
3. Some European team (probably the Russians)

PAIRS
1. Shen & Zao (Please, please, please!)
2. Savchenko/Szolkowy
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov

LADIES
1. Miki Ando (and I would actually be fine with that. I like her skating this year... and GASP, I like her LP!)
2. Yu-Na Kim (if it were up to me, she wouldn't even be on the podium, although she deserves it if she skates well... just not feeling her skating)
3. Joannie Rochette


4. Rachael Flatt (she'll deliver, I know it!)
5. Mao Asada (mess up 3 axel in SP)
6. Laura Lepisto (will land two actual triples in the LP)
7. Akiko Suzuki
8. Mirai Nagasu (despite skating well, will get unfair downgrade calls)
9. Carolina Kostner (wish she could skate cleanly and get on the podium!!!)
10. Elene G.
11. Kira Korpi (is she going for sure?)
12. Sarah Meier (a favorite of mine!)

Even if Mao gets a downgrade for her 3A, if she doesn't mess up her other elements in the SP, she will likely to be on the podium because she is known to come back strong in the LP. Flatt can't beat Mao unless she completely bombs her SP. Also how can Akiko be under Lepisto and Flatt??? :think: That girl won a bronze medal at GPF; I definitely think she will be at least fourth or even be on the podium if the top contenders falter. Also I think people are giving Flatt way too much credit. I don't think the judges favor her that much. I mean she hasn't won a world medal and has not even qualified for a GPF. I don't even remember a skater who medalled at Olympics not having at least qualified for GPF or won a major medal prior to the games. This may happen if the field is pretty weak but the present field of skaters are so deep that I just don't see this happening. I see the Europeans having a better chance than Flatt. IMAO.

 

[FlattFan]

Even if Mao gets a downgrade for her 3A, if she doesn't mess up her other elements in the SP, she will likely to be on the podium because she is known to come back strong in the LP. Flatt can't beat Mao unless she completely bombs her SP. Also how can Akiko be under Lepisto and Flatt??? :think: That girl won a bronze medal at GPF; I definitely think she will be at least fourth or even be on the podium if the top contenders falter. Also I think people are giving Flatt way too much credit. I don't think the judges favor her that much. I mean she hasn't won a world medal and has not even qualified for a GPF. I don't even remember a skater who medalled at Olympics not having at least qualified for GPF or won a major medal prior to the games. This may happen if the field is pretty weak but the present field of skaters are so deep that I just don't see this happening. I see the Europeans having a better chance than Flatt. IMAO.

If Mao got low 50 in her SP, which is very possible (see Russia, 4CC), Flatt can get a good 10 points head start.
Mao LP is not 10 points more than Flatt, if both are clean.
Guess who's likely to be cleaner in the LP?

Which Europeans have better chance than Flatt? Kostner? She can be first or out of the top 10, so if you mean chance, she has the lowest chance of beating Flatt because it spreads out so much.
None of the other Euro girls beat Flatt at Worlds.

 

[R.D.]

If Mao got low 50 in her SP, which is very possible (see Russia, 4CC), Flatt can get a good 10 points head start.
Mao LP is not 10 points more than Flatt, if both are clean.
Guess who's likely to be cleaner in the LP?

Which Europeans have better chance than Flatt? Kostner? She can be first or out of the top 10, so if you mean chance, she has the lowest chance of beating Flatt because it spreads out so much.
None of the other Euro girls beat Flatt at Worlds.

As much as I want to be optimistic about her, this is really grasping at straws IMO. Flatt may have been 5th at worlds but looking at the point totals, she was what- 20 points behind the medalists? And also significantly behind a sub-par Asada. It's not impossible for Flatt to get an OM but it's a tall order. Like Sarah Hughes in 2002, she'll need 1) the best skates of her career and 2) at least two of Kim, Rochette, Asada, Ando to mess up big. I'd put her at about the same level as Suzuki at this point- maybe 4th-6th territory. If Flatt has an off-night (this IS the Olympics we're talking about) she could be closer to 7th.

 

[miki88]

If Mao got low 50 in her SP, which is very possible (see Russia, 4CC), Flatt can get a good 10 points head start.
Mao LP is not 10 points more than Flatt, if both are clean.
Guess who's likely to be cleaner in the LP?

Which Europeans have better chance than Flatt? Kostner? She can be first or out of the top 10, so if you mean chance, she has the lowest chance of beating Flatt because it spreads out so much.
None of the other Euro girls beat Flatt at Worlds.

Um.. in both of these events. Mao bombed her SP, not just the axel. And I did say it was possible if she bombed her SP. Also even if Mao's LP is not clean, if she doesn't make major mistakes she will still be higher than Flatt. And a lot higher IMAO. Her LP score at 4CC is higher than everyone's so far this season except Kim's at TEB, and it was not all clean either! Flatt's hasn't broken 120 and her highest (the one that beat a subpar Kim) was 119. And I don't think Flatt will go much higher than that at the Olympics unless she suddenly becomes so much better in less than 2 mths. So for Flatt to beat Mao, she will have to bomb both programs. At this point, I don't even think Flatt can beat Akiko, who is more consistent and who actually medalled at GPF! Kostner has the potential to be much better than Flatt, and at the Olympics, potential can count a lot if you're thinking about upsets. I have nothing against Flatt, but she just doesn't have the potential to be that high UNLESS a lot of the other top skaters mess up big time. I agree with R.D.

 

[FlattFan]

As much as I want to be optimistic about her, this is really grasping at straws IMO. Flatt may have been 5th at worlds but looking at the point totals, she was what- 20 points behind the medalists? And also significantly behind a sub-par Asada. It's not impossible for Flatt to get an OM but it's a tall order. Like Sarah Hughes in 2002, she'll need 1) the best skates of her career and 2) at least two of Kim, Rochette, Asada, Ando to mess up big. I'd put her at about the same level as Suzuki at this point- maybe 4th-6th territory. If Flatt has an off-night (this IS the Olympics we're talking about) she could be closer to 7th.

But she did not have triple triple combo in either Short or Long program at Worlds. It was her first world, the PCS was crap. This time around, she's coming into the Olympics as the US champion. Her PCS will improve this year.
I believe if she hit them both like she's been doing lately, the point difference is minimal.
I think a repeat of Nationals and she could be on the podium.
I was just pointing out that Lepisto, the Euro girls aren't likely to beat Flatt, like miki88 suggested.

Um.. in both of these events. Mao bombed her SP, not just the axel. And I did say it was possible if she bombed her SP. Also 10 points???? I don't remember Flatt ever getting in the 60s for her SP, and Mao's subpar SP was in the high 50's not low. Also even if Mao's LP is not clean, if she doesn't make major mistakes she will still be higher than Flatt. And a lot higher IMAO. Her LP score at 4CC is higher than everyone's so far this season except Kim's at TEB, and it was not all clean either! Kostner has the potential to be much better than Flatt, and at the Olympics, potential can count a lot if you're thinking about upsets. I have nothing against Flatt, but she just doesn't have the potential to be that high UNLESS a lot of the other top skaters mess up big time.

Wasn't her SP at Russia 50 or 51? A subpar SP like in Paris was 57 or 58, but that includes everything, including a very high PCS. Will she? Her LP at last year Worlds was pretty good, only one big mistake and she got 122. At 4CC, no big mistake, and she got 126. Flatt, if clean, will not be far behind and possibly beat Mao.
Between the two, who's likely to bomb? Just answer that.
Regarding Kostner, her potential is higher than Flatt. But we're talking about chance. Her chance is a lot lower. Stop conflating two very different ideas.

 

[R.D.]

I was just pointing out that Lepisto, the Euro girls aren't likely to beat Flatt, like miki88 suggested.

I agree. However, Rochette, Kim, Ando, Asada and Suzuki aren't European. There's more than enough there to fill up a podium...

 

[miki88]

But she did not have triple triple combo in either Short or Long program at Worlds. It was her first world, the PCS was crap. This time around, she's coming into the Olympics as the US champion. Her PCS will improve this year.
I believe if she hit them both like she's been doing lately, the point difference is minimal.
I think a repeat of Nationals and she could be on the podium.
I was just pointing out that Lepisto, the Euro girls aren't likely to beat Flatt, like miki88 suggested.


Wasn't her SP at Russia 50 or 51? A subpar SP like in Paris was 57 or 58, but that includes everything, including a very high PCS. Will she? Her LP at last year Worlds was pretty good, only one big mistake and she got 122. At 4CC, no big mistake, and she got 126. Flatt, if clean, will not be far behind and possibly beat Mao.
Between the two, who's likely to bomb? Just answer that.
Regarding Kostner, her potential is higher than Flatt. But we're talking about chance. Her chance is a lot lower. Stop conflating two very different ideas.

Ok. But you're talking about a scenario in which Mao bombs. But let's just say Mao does bomb, that still doesn't mean Flatt can be on the podium. She needs to also have Miki or Rochette bomb too, then she can be on the podium. So I guess you're predicting that one of them will bomb too right? Also how does being US national champion make her chances greater? I mean Mao is current Japanese champion and Joannie is Canadian champion. So I dunno what difference that really makes. Also, you are talking about a scenario in which Flatt skates clean and also the best she has ever done. But let's ask the question do the judges favor the top four contenders more or do they favor Flatt? And do the favor a clean Costner more or do they favor Flatt? Just because Flatt is consistent doesn't mean she will get higher scores than she ususally gets, because she will still be hit with lower PCS. Bottom line is Flatt on the podium = major splatfast from the top contenders. I know it's a little harsh but that's just reality of the situation.

 

[FlattFan]

I agree. However, Rochette, Kim, Ando, Asada and Suzuki aren't European. There's more than enough there to fill up a podium...

Suzuki is doing sequence to avoid UR calls and squeeze 7 triples into her LP, she only has 1 lutz. Her base value is lower.
Her PCS is also a few points lower. Even thought Suzuki is consistent, Flatt is also consistent. So from what I know now, the chance Suzuki beats Flatt is nil if both skate the way they've been skating.

Flatt only needs 2 of the top 4 to skate like they've been skating.

But you're talking about a scenario in which Mao bombs. But let's just say Mao does bomb, that still doesn't mean Flatt can be on the podium. She needs to also have Miki or Rochette bomb too, then she can be on the podium. So I guess you're predicting that one of them will bomb too right? Also how does being US national champion make her chances greater?

I don't want anyone bombing, but I think there will be at least 2 girls in the top 4 bomb, seeing how they've been doing the whole season. I'm not talking about Mao. It could very well be Yuna.
You misunderstood my point. I did not say being a US champ make her chance greater. I said compared to last year PCS, this year PCS will be higher because she's the top US girl, and she's been on the scene before. PCS tends to go up as you compete more and more in the international scene. Whatever gap she found herself in at last year Worlds will be reduced greatly in this Olympics. She'll definitely be in the top 5 if everyone's clean (minus Kostner, if Kostner is clean, Kostner wins the gold)
Who do you think can beat Flatt if clean outside of the top 4?

 

[bekalc]

But she did not have triple triple combo in either Short or Long program at Worlds. It was her first world, the PCS was crap. This time around, she's coming into the Olympics as the US champion. Her PCS will improve this year.
I believe if she hit them both like she's been doing lately, the point difference is minimal.
I think a repeat of Nationals and she could be on the podium.
I was just pointing out that Lepisto, the Euro girls aren't likely to beat Flatt, like miki88 suggested.


Wasn't her SP at Russia 50 or 51? A subpar SP like in Paris was 57 or 58, but that includes everything, including a very high PCS. Will she? Her LP at last year Worlds was pretty good, only one big mistake and she got 122. At 4CC, no big mistake, and she got 126. Flatt, if clean, will not be far behind and possibly beat Mao.
Between the two, who's likely to bomb? Just answer that.
Regarding Kostner, her potential is higher than Flatt. But we're talking about chance. Her chance is a lot lower. Stop conflating two very different ideas.

Rachael does not skate with the same speed or power that Kim, Asada, Rochette, Kostner, and Ando have. They all have great flow accross the ice. Her PCS are going up but I have a hard time thinking they will be as high as the people I mentioned. Unless there's some serious politiking going on. Also in terms of quality, her jumps aren't going to get that high of GOE, in comparision to the GOE those five I mentioned are going to get on their great jumps.

As for who can beat Flatt if clean besides some of the people mentioned. I think that if lets say several of the Japanese girls could, and Suzuki skated right after Flatt, Suzuki could. Yes Flatt may have a higher TES base, but Suzuki is a better performer who could bring the house down. It could be Nagasu vs Flatt all over again, except this time Suzuki actually rotates her jumps. If we are talking about splat fest anyways, the judges might just decide to reward the reigning GPF bronze medalist and the reigning Four Continents silver medalist. Then there's Lepisto, if she had the skate of her life, and started landing her stuff, she'd beat Rachael too because she gets way higher PCS do to quality of her skating. There is also Leonova who could perhaps get higher scores. Her PCS went up at GPF.

But you mention the way they've been skating. The way Yu-na has been skating has still lead to her getting higher scores than Rachael has gotten this season. And I'd hardly call Rachael's skate a Cup of China as an example of great skating herself.

Rachael's PCS have gone up, but they aren't going to go up that much further unless she makes some changes to her skating.

 

[R.D.]

What Flatt DOES have over many of the other top competitors, though, is mental toughness- and that can be invaluable in an Olympic year.

But could she possibly take the Meissner 2006 Expressway is the real question- not place at Olympics but pull a shocker at Worlds with most of the top competitors gone...hmm.

 

[miki88]

What Flatt DOES have over many of the other top competitors, though, is mental toughness- and that can be invaluable in an Olympic year.

But could she possibly take the Meissner 2006 Expressway is the real question- not place at Olympics but pull a shocker at Worlds with most of the top competitors gone...hmm.

As for mental toughness, it's kinda depends on the situation, because Flatt has never had that much pressure on her shoulders as the other top contenders. No one really expects her to medal not even the US press. In a way, that is her greatest advantage. Very little pressure. How far will that take her on Olympic night? We'll have to see. But to me her making the podium is still a bit of a stretch for now.

 

[FlattFan]

Suzuki pcs is about 2-3 points lower
Suzuki tes is also lower.
This is not the Case where the whole is larger than the sum of it's parts. This is the whole is exactly the sum of its part.
They are not going to magically give it to Suzuki.
Btw, since when is performance = pcs?

Lepisto pcs is about 3 points higher
Rachael tes is a lot higher than lepisto even with all of her triples. How can a clean lepisto win over a clean flatt?

 

[R.D.]

As for mental toughness, it's kinda depends on the situation, because Flatt has never had that much pressure on her shoulders as the other top contenders. No one really expects her to medal not even the US press. In a way, that is her greatest advantage. Very little pressure. How far will that take her on Olympic night? We'll have to see. But to me her making the podium is still a bit of a stretch for now.

That's a good point.