Predictions?
- Thread starter fsfan22
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Not trying to predict men. Not when Johnny is such a complete and other question mark. He was looking much better at Yokohama then he's been but there's now the question as to whether he won't be distracted what with what just happened to his spouses. I do think Lambiel will beat Evan though.
Ladies: Yu-Na Kim will win. How Caroline Zhang does will depend on how downgrade-happy the caller is this time, but I think it may be enough for either Kostner or Czisny to beat her, but that'll depend on how clean they skate(they say Czisny's working on the nerves, but of course she may be vulnerable to downgrades as well). I think the three of them are likely to be below Kim in the top four in some order, unless Czisny really melts down or Zhang actually gets dinged past Suguri, but I've got doubts about her after Yokohama; she looked very worn there.
Pairs: After Pang and Tong, it's the two junior pairs, Zhang and Wang and McLaughlin and Brubaker, and also Li and Xu. I think Zhang and Wang may win the silver through home field advantage, but McLaughlin and Brubaker, being junior world champions, ought to be able to manage at least the bronze in a field like this.
Ice Dancing: I wish I could have faith in the judging here. But I've got the feeling Domnina and Shabalin will beat Belbin and Agosto for this one, taking two golds since there's no way they won't win CoR, and then go on to win everything else this season. Faiella and Scali should take the bronze.
Ladies: Yu-Na Kim will win. How Caroline Zhang does will depend on how downgrade-happy the caller is this time, but I think it may be enough for either Kostner or Czisny to beat her, but that'll depend on how clean they skate(they say Czisny's working on the nerves, but of course she may be vulnerable to downgrades as well). I think the three of them are likely to be below Kim in the top four in some order, unless Czisny really melts down or Zhang actually gets dinged past Suguri, but I've got doubts about her after Yokohama; she looked very worn there.
Pairs: After Pang and Tong, it's the two junior pairs, Zhang and Wang and McLaughlin and Brubaker, and also Li and Xu. I think Zhang and Wang may win the silver through home field advantage, but McLaughlin and Brubaker, being junior world champions, ought to be able to manage at least the bronze in a field like this.
Ice Dancing: I wish I could have faith in the judging here. But I've got the feeling Domnina and Shabalin will beat Belbin and Agosto for this one, taking two golds since there's no way they won't win CoR, and then go on to win everything else this season. Faiella and Scali should take the bronze.
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- Jun 21, 2003
Don't forget to enter the GS gold picks contest and win a free subscription to Spotlight on Skating magazine.
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/announcement.php?f=163
I went with Domina and Shabalin, Pang and Tong, Johnny Weir
and Alissa Czisny. 
(You read it here first. 
)
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/announcement.php?f=163
I went with Domina and Shabalin, Pang and Tong, Johnny Weir
and Alissa Czisny. (You read it here first. )
Don't forget to enter the GS gold picks contest and win a free subscription to Spotlight on Skating magazine.
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/announcement.php?f=163
I went with Domina and Shabalin, Pang and Tong, Johnny Weir
That would be the most wonderful podium!
My predictions.
Ladies
Yu Na Kim-I suspect it will be a blow out. And knock on wood, I think she'll blow away Mao's recent scores.
Caroline Zhang-she's consistent and I'm thinking the technical caller might be a lot less harsh
Carolina Kostner- I would have her second, but she's too inconsistent and has never done well in the Grand Prix.. I fear that 3rd might be too high
Fumie Suguri-I would place Suguri in third but I think she only has 3 triple jumps left.
Men:
Lyseck-He's consistent.
Weir-sounds like he might have his act together but does he have a quad?
Lambiel-I think he's the best skater there, but I remember reading a recent report where Joubert said that jumps wise Lambiel isn't there yet... Joubert thinks he'll get it together though, so I don't know.
Ladies
Yu Na Kim-I suspect it will be a blow out. And knock on wood, I think she'll blow away Mao's recent scores.
Caroline Zhang-she's consistent and I'm thinking the technical caller might be a lot less harsh
Carolina Kostner- I would have her second, but she's too inconsistent and has never done well in the Grand Prix.. I fear that 3rd might be too high
Fumie Suguri-I would place Suguri in third but I think she only has 3 triple jumps left.
Men:
Lyseck-He's consistent.
Weir-sounds like he might have his act together but does he have a quad?
Lambiel-I think he's the best skater there, but I remember reading a recent report where Joubert said that jumps wise Lambiel isn't there yet... Joubert thinks he'll get it together though, so I don't know.
- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
Bekalc, you continue to amuse me. Stephane does not have to land all his jumps to beat the likes of Lysacek and Weir. He has missed lots of jumps in most head to head competitions with them and still won every time. Lysacek will almost certainly miss something in the short, and Weir is Weir. Lambiel has to miss many more jumps then they do to lose to one of them, and since they both are likely to miss something over the competition he has lots of room for error. Last year at Worlds he missed 6 jumps over the 2 programs and still beat Lysacek easily, who in turn still beat Weir easily.
Hey, I thought I'd be different. Besides, i don't think that Lambiel will be allowed to get away with missing jumps for very long (and not eventaully take a PCS dive)
Both Weir and Lyseck also made mistakes in the short program and were placed ahead of Lambiel. Weir also placed ahead of Lambiel in the short at the Olympics...
Lambiel had a really nice free program, and of course if Lambiel skates well I think he'll win the competition.
But I think that if Lambiel falls more than twice, he more than likely will not win Cup of China. As I mentioned before, very soon missing lots of jumps will start to affect his PCS...
I do prefer Lambiel to Lyseck and Weir.
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- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
Absolutely nothing you say makes sense. Let me go through it bit by bit:
1)Top skaters dont take a big PCS dive for missing jumps, none of them do, if even Buttle doesnt after all these years then Lambiel who is much more highly respected by international judges then Buttle is certainly wont, and most of the top guys miss jumps regularly to a certain extent anyway.
2)Yes Weir with a clean skate did barely place over Lambiel with mistakes in the short program at the Olympics. That was then, this is now. Last year at U.S Nationals Weir with a clean short couldnt even beat Lysacek in the short program at Nationals, and his score there with inflated U.S judging couldnt even match his score at the Olympics in front of international judges. Internationaly Weir skates clean shorts at both Skate Canada and Cup of Russia and scored in the mid-70s, 4 to 5 points lower then his PB of the Olympic season. Lambiel with a disaester at last years Skate Canada got a higher PCS then Weir's clean short at the same event. I laugh that you think placing ahead of Lambiel's diseaster in the short at Skate Canada is impressive, atleast at the Olympics he had a semi-decent although flawed skate, at Skate Canada he had a disaeter like I said and still got higher PCS then Weir's clean skate. What was back at the time of the Olympics is not now.
3)Lysacek does not do back-to-back clean programs hardly ever himself, so what planet you think he is likely to do that to cause such a situation I am unsure. The only competition he ever did was U.S Nationals and NHK that year, so about 10% of the time. If Lysacek and Lambiel both make mistakes Lambiel will win out comfortably, unless Lambiel makes many more mistakes. Also Lambiel with mistakes could certainly end up beating Lysacek with none potentialy as well, his base mark is easily higher enough to allow that to happen.
4)At Worlds last year in the free skate Lysacek doubled a triple loop, and had small turnouts out of 2 jumps. Lambiel doubled a triple flip late, badly two footed the triple toe after, and almost fell on the second quad. Who had the bigger mistakes? Lambiel beat Lysacek in the free skate by 12 points. In the short Lysacek had a flawed but respectable skate, Lambiel was a mess, they were still almost tied. Lambiel had many more mistakes at Worlds but finished higher by a wide margin since he is by far the better skater and Lysacek has to be at his best to capatilize on an error-filled Lambiel.
5)Here is a fact for you. Lambiel has never lost to Lysacek or Weir since all 3 have been senior competitors, there is a reason for that. While the latter two are good enough skaters there is always an outside chance it could happen someday, it is never likely, and Lambiel certainly is not likely to have to land every jump to beat those two.
Think what you want though. I have already come to realize you certainly have a very "unique" way of thinking.
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- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
Right, who had the worst performance in the short at Worlds out of Lysacek, Lambiel, and Weir? Weir stumbled out of 1 jump a bit, Lysacek the same but stood up the quad still, Lambiel did a lame triple toe-double toe combo and fell on his triple axel. Hmmm, I think Lambiel had by far the worst performance. Yet he was still within a point of Lysacek and within 2 points of Weir, and his diseaster still had a higher PCS mark then their respectably good (for them) performances. I gaurantee you if Weir or Lysacek ever did a triple toe-double toe and fell on a triple axel they would be far below 70, Lambiel is one of the only guys good enough to get a score like he did with that severe of problems.
As for the long program like I said Lambiel and Lysacek both had 3 mistakes, and Lambiel had the worse mistakes and still beat Lysacek by 12 points. Weir had kind of a blah performance in the long as usual and was way behind both.
- Joined
- Jan 24, 2004
Predictions:
Men
1. Lambiel - will out-skate the competition despite a few mistakes
2. Lysacek - bad short program, clean long program
3. Weir - clean short program, bad long program
Ladies
1. Kim - because she's the best skater out there today
2-3 I really don't know, they're all so inconsistent or have major technical deficiencies
Wish list:
Men
1. Lambiel - because he's the best/most complete skater out there today
2. Weir - because smooth skating should trump faux-macho
3. Chengjiang Li - because he's so underrated and is due for a good performance after two bad seasons
Ladies
1. Kim - because she's the best/most complete skater out there today
2. Suguri- because the "old" ladies should get some respect too! I want her to do just well enough to medal in her events, to stay in the game, but not make the GPF. She seems to skate better at nationals when she doesn't make the GPF.
3. Liang or Czisny- because they're my favorite American ladies, and they need to prove they can hold their own against the Zhang hype.
Men
1. Lambiel - will out-skate the competition despite a few mistakes
2. Lysacek - bad short program, clean long program
3. Weir - clean short program, bad long program
Ladies
1. Kim - because she's the best skater out there today
2-3 I really don't know, they're all so inconsistent or have major technical deficiencies
Wish list:
Men
1. Lambiel - because he's the best/most complete skater out there today
2. Weir - because smooth skating should trump faux-macho
3. Chengjiang Li - because he's so underrated and is due for a good performance after two bad seasons
Ladies
1. Kim - because she's the best/most complete skater out there today
2. Suguri
- because the "old" ladies should get some respect too! I want her to do just well enough to medal in her events, to stay in the game, but not make the GPF. She seems to skate better at nationals when she doesn't make the GPF.3. Liang or Czisny- because they're my favorite American ladies, and they need to prove they can hold their own against the Zhang hype.
Slute: Believe it or not Lambiel is actually my favorite male skater. I hope he wants, want him to win, and wouldn't be surprised if he won.
But if Joubert is telling the truth, and Lambiel's jumps aren't much better than they were last season, then I think that perhaps you should prepare yourself for an upset.
But if Joubert is telling the truth, and Lambiel's jumps aren't much better than they were last season, then I think that perhaps you should prepare yourself for an upset.
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- Mar 28, 2005
Lambiel's jumps last season were enough to easily beat Lysacek and Weir at Worlds. They were enough to score much higher in both programs at Worlds then Lysacek did at Skate America, and that Weir has over 2 programs in his whole career. You also still havent explained why it is remotedly likely to assume Lysacek or Weir are at all likely to skate 2 clean programs, which either would have to do to take advantage of Lambiel making alot of mistakes in order to beat him. Believe what you want though, and please dont insult my intelligence with something like your opening sentence.
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- Joined
- Jan 24, 2004
Okay, I'm confused. Why are we supposed to believe something Joubert said about his closest rival's jumps?bekalc said:
So your a mind reader now, and you seem to know who I like and don't like.
Lambiel is my favorite skater, I certainly prefer watching him to the other men around.
But I pride myself on being somewhat objective, and when it comes to the men, I'm completely objective partly because I don't think anyone has impressed me the way Yagudin had/ and to a lesser extent Plushenko. There are too many flaws in the current crop of men. Although someone said that in practice and in the gala, Joubert was skating lovely. His performance was lovely the edges etc.. That Joubert had improved tremendously, but it seemed like when he messed up the quad, he began ot skate really tenatively. But it sounds like from that report that Joubert is really improving artistically. I felt I saw it especially in the beginning of his short.
So, because I'm objective, I feel that there is kind of something wrong with the idea of a world champion without a triple axel. Now, don't get me wrong as long as Lambiel was consistent and had that quad, seriously I was okay with it. But now, I'm "having issues with the idea" as much as I do enjoy Lambiel's skating.
I thought the PCS for last year's short program was a joke. When you make that many mistakes on the jumps, I'm sorry but I think it does effect the overall quality of your performance. Please don't get me wrong, I think Lambiel is a wonderful skater, but I don't think the judges are doing him any favors by holding him up. Still, his long program was amazing.
As for why I believe Joubert. I'm not sure if I do, but the way Joubert said it, it wasn't exactly a slam on Lambiel. What Joubert said was he was kind of suprised to see that Lambiel's jumps aren't back yet, and that he feels that Lambiel may still not be that motivated. However, Joubert also said that he's convinced that Lambiel will be ready for the season. So Joubert wasn't saying that he thinks Lambiel will be a push over next season.
The point I want to make is that if Lambiel's jumps aren't back to what they were, and Lyseck is somewhat clean, I personally don't want to see Lambiel win as much as I like him. Personally, I just don't think it's right...Because it is first and foremost a sport. I also think if he's lackluster being placed behind people like Lyseck/Weir would be good for Lambiel. It would let him ask himself: Do I want to be world champion or do I want to retire.
I know that my prediction is a long shot, and honestly I hope my prediction is wrong and joubert was lying. And Lambiel is back to his normal self because I love his skating more than all of the other men. But it is a prediction contest, and (while in the contest especially all of my picks were basically the obvious ones) So I decided to go for the long shot, and see what happens.. I think that Lambiel is more likely to have issues than the other favorites.
And you know what I don't get it either. For example the poster above, just predicted that Zhang will beat Yu-na Kim. My thinking of that is what? But I'm not going around attacking the other person, and saying I know who that persons favorite skater is or isn't.
This is a prediction thread, it's not let's attack someone for who they are predicting and force them to change their minds.
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- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
There is absolutely nothing wrong with Lambiel beating Weir and Lysacek with missed jumps, in fact unless they skate differently then they normally do it is exactly what should happen if judged properly. Once again what you fail to grasp is Lysacek and Weir almost never do back-to-back clean programs either, and the only way skaters such as they do should or would deserve to beat Lambiel is if they skate cleanly in both programs, which neither ever do AND Lambiel misses enough jumps like he often does. The only way such a decision would have merit is the combination of the two, and that combination is highly unlikely to happen and has never happened in the past up to now. The fact that they are also likely to make some kind of mistakes means it is not like likely Lambiel should or would deserve to lose to either with mistakes of his own. Although again I think you live in some parralel universe with some of your past comments.
Lambiel's PCS in the short program at Worlds were a joke? Well basically all of the PCS Joubert and Lysacek and even Plushenko have ever received in their careers are a joke, so he has a long way to catch up to some of his peers in that regard as well.
Also your favorite male skater is Joubert. Dont try and convince me otherwise, some things are fairly obvious, and that is fine he is your favorite, there is nothing wrong with that. Just please dont insult my intelligence by saying it is someone else to try and bolster your argument, especialy Lambiel. I could say Lysacek or Joubert is my favorite skater to try and bolster my argument, but to people who have read my posts before it would look silly and people would see right through it.
Lastly I was never trying to change your prediction. I was simply giving my view not only of your actual prediction but the way you worded it, and my thoughts on that. You dont have to give a damn what I think just because I was putting my two cents in, and in fact i never expected it to turn into a conversation, but apparently you did care as the long dialogue proves.
Lambiel's PCS in the short program at Worlds were a joke? Well basically all of the PCS Joubert and Lysacek and even Plushenko have ever received in their careers are a joke, so he has a long way to catch up to some of his peers in that regard as well.
Also your favorite male skater is Joubert. Dont try and convince me otherwise, some things are fairly obvious, and that is fine he is your favorite, there is nothing wrong with that. Just please dont insult my intelligence by saying it is someone else to try and bolster your argument, especialy Lambiel. I could say Lysacek or Joubert is my favorite skater to try and bolster my argument, but to people who have read my posts before it would look silly and people would see right through it.
Lastly I was never trying to change your prediction. I was simply giving my view not only of your actual prediction but the way you worded it, and my thoughts on that. You dont have to give a damn what I think just because I was putting my two cents in, and in fact i never expected it to turn into a conversation, but apparently you did care as the long dialogue proves.
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Well said bekalc! 
I prefer you a lot more to Slutskayafan21. I like Lambiel, but Slutskayafan21's attitude really annoyed me sometimes. It's really not necessary to keep belittling the competitors of your favorite skater, I'm getting tired of hearing the same old crap from him again and again. Enough is enough.
I don't care about the prediction, and never will. At the end of the day, only the result matters. All I wanna see is an exciting and fair competition, and let the best competitor win. :yes:
Again, we'll see who laughs last.
I prefer you a lot more to Slutskayafan21. I like Lambiel, but Slutskayafan21's attitude really annoyed me sometimes. It's really not necessary to keep belittling the competitors of your favorite skater, I'm getting tired of hearing the same old crap from him again and again. Enough is enough. I don't care about the prediction, and never will. At the end of the day, only the result matters. All I wanna see is an exciting and fair competition, and let the best competitor win. :yes:
Again, we'll see who laughs last.
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