Predictions?

[feraina]

You may be right. However, her spins and spirals are (or will be) good enough to get scores. Anyway, you will see improved ones from her this season.

Oh, yeah, she is definitely improving her speed on the spins, and the stretch on the spirals. But she's not naturally flexible, and her frequently ailing back means that she can't really push on the flexibility front. And I don't know why, but so few Asian skaters seem to be able to do a nice classical layback position with the foot turned out. Why is that?! How hard can it be to correct that one small detail in a spin?!

Caroline's jump techniques may not be textbook perfect, but her jumps are also good enough to get scores. I'm sure she's working hard on the rotation problem between SA and CoC.

Btw, if Caroline had all her jumps rotated, and assuming she gets 0 GOE on average, she would gain 18 points on her SA LP score, which gives her 115. That's something that Yu-na would need to skate near her best in order to beat.

We've not seen Yu-na in any competition since she struggled through Worlds. By all accounts, she seems to have had a great summer, staying healthy, training hard, having fun making up new programs. I'm looking forward to seeing their debut!

 

[cosmos]

Oh, yeah, she is definitely improving her speed on the spins, and the stretch on the spirals. But she's not naturally flexible, and her frequently ailing back means that she can't really push on the flexibility front. And I don't know why, but so few Asian skaters seem to be able to do a nice classical layback position with the foot turned out. Why is that?! How hard can it be to correct that one small detail in a spin?!

Caroline's jump techniques may not be textbook perfect, but her jumps are also good enough to get scores. I'm sure she's working hard on the rotation problem between SA and CoC.

Btw, if Caroline had all her jumps rotated, and assuming she gets 0 GOE on average, she would gain 18 points on her SA LP score, which gives her 115. That's something that Yu-na would need to skate near her best in order to beat.

We've not seen Yu-na in any competition since she struggled through Worlds. By all accounts, she seems to have had a great summer, staying healthy, training hard, having fun making up new programs. I'm looking forward to seeing their debut!

Caroline has limitations to improve her jumps, IMO. We will see anyway.

It is quite absurd to try to limit YuNa's LP score around 110. She could not give clean LP last year, because of injury, lack of stamina. If she had not fallen twice in Worlds, her score would have been huge.

YuNa will prove herself this season.

My prediction is

1. YuNa
2. Carolina K.
3. Fumie or Caroline.

 

[kandidy]

This debate is very interesting!
We will see in two days who is better.

 

[lilybear]

This debate is very interesting!
We will see in two days who is better.

I think so！

 

[cosmos]

I believe, too much Mao hype has had negative effect on her. Now, I am worrying about Caroline. This has nothing to do with feraina's posts, though.

 

[bekalc]

Well, I would never say that Yu-na is better than Carolina in spins. Although I've seen clips of Yu-na's new spirals and her stretch position looks quite a lot better. Her spirals now look quite nice. Besides, in spirals, people tend to dismiss the fact that edge quality, and speed, and how long a person holds a spiral, factors in your spiral score. For example Caroline Kostner, might not have Carolina Zhang's gumby factor, but in those areas of the spiral, she far exceeds Zhang. The edge quality of Kostner's spirals are truly amazing. I wouldn't be surprised if the edge quality of Yu-na's spiral and her speed, is much better than Zhang's as well.
Besides Zhang has a tendency to not hold her positions long enough..

I think that's another thing, people aren't taking into account basic skating skills, speed, ice coverage, command of the ice, musicality, and footwork too. These are all factors that Yu-na far exceeds Zhang on.

As for Juniors, it's really hard to compare the two. I did look at the protocols for Yu-na in her longs as a Junior, and I found that Yu-na's strength back then was the long program. She really had a disasterous skate in the Junior Grand Prix final in 2004, and a fall in one Junior Grand Prix event a year later. Other than that though Yu-na's longs were quite good. I also think that it's fair to point out that until Yu-na hit the Junior Grand Prix, it's not like Yu-na was use to high level competitions. Zhang grew up skating in America where there is quite a lot of competition for young skaters. Whereas Yu-na grew up skating in Korea, where the skating competition wasn't so great. In that sense, it makes sense that Yu-na might have some consistency issues her first year as a Junior, as she's getting use to actually having competition.

 

[zephyrskates]

Besides, in spirals, people tend to dismiss the fact that edge quality, and speed, and how long a person holds a spiral, factors in your spiral score.

I think that's another thing, people aren't taking into account basic skating skills, speed, ice coverage, command of the ice, musicality, and footwork too. These are all factors that Yu-na far exceeds Zhang on.

caroline got a level 1 for her spirals at skate america, although people may point out that there was a strict technical caller at the event.
at the 2006/2007 JGP final and Taipei JGP caroline's spirals where level 3. it was level 1 in the mexico city JGP.
although in the junior worlds she had a level 4 spiral sequence.
(all of these are during the FS)

yuna did get a level 3 on her FS at the 2007 worlds, and a level 4 spiral sequence on TEB (her personal best in FS)
while on the junior level yuna had a level 3 on the JGP final and junior worlds.

on PCS for junior worlds

caroline zhang (2006)
FS score- 110.08
PCS-48.45
Skating Skills- 6.21
Transition-5.71
Performance-6.32
Choreography-6.04
Interpretation-6.00


yuna kim (2005)
FS score- 116.68
PCS-51.83
Skating Skills- 6.43
Transition-6.35
Performance-6.61
Choreography-6.46
Interpretation-6.64

I dont know the technical side of COP well, only know to compare PCS and see who is better there, so I guess I was wrong on the score, but on the skating itself I disagree. Caroline is superior to Kim and Kostner in every area except jump technique and speed. Spins, footwork, spirals, line, postions, posture, interpretation, choreography, she clearly tops both. Kim and Kostner are good skaters but they arent at the level of the top Japanese or Meissner.

'clearly top both'?

we all know that these are different events so the scores and levels are not consistent and may not be the best for comparison, however i think that it is sufficient for a rough comparison of yuna and caroline.

one more thing:
let's use kimmie as a barometer.

zhang did not beat a 3-3 less meissner in SA(both SP and FS,but the technical caller) while kim was placed higher than kimmie on TEB and 2007 worlds where kimmie had a 3-3 ratified.


still this will be settled on the ice, and we will know by friday(or thursday, since it's harbin time)

 

[bekalc]

Oh, the reason I mentioned Caroline's spiral not necessarily always getting credit is because on FSU there is a skater who trains at Caroline's rink, and she said that Caroline doesn't always get credit for her levels becasue Caroline isn't always disciplined enough to count how long she holds each position. She said in contrast, Mirai always counts out and so will always get credit.
]
Right now, I do like Caroline's spirals better because her positions are phenomenal, althoug the lean Yu-na has in one of her spiral positions from the practice slip, pretty awesome, I thought.

Right now though I think Mirai and Mao have the most awesome spirals.

 

[kandidy]

Let's not compare if they are not compete in the same competition, same time, same event, same judges.
Let's see this Thursday.

 

[zephyrskates]

Let's see this Thursday.

is it this thursday? whoo. sooner than i expected.

 

[kandidy]

is it this thursday? whoo. sooner than i expected.

Maybe it will be Friday in your time zone

 

[chuckm]

No, it's Thursday. The competition begins Thursday at 5pm in China, which is 6pm Toyko time on Thursday.

Even in the US (excluding Alaska and Hawaii), the competition starts on Thursday (4 am EST and 1 am PST).

 

[feraina]

Wow, that means we'll wake up Thursday morning to the ladies' SP results?! Less than 24 hours away. Awesome! Of course, I prefer to watch it live, but it looks like there'll be no web streaming anyway?

 

[feraina]

on FSU there is a skater who trains at Caroline's rink, and she said that Caroline doesn't always get credit for her levels becasue Caroline isn't always disciplined enough to count how long she holds each position.

That's a relatively small thing to correct, though. Remember Michelle Kwan got low levels for her spins at her first CoP competition (IIRC, Worlds 2005), and she said afterwards that she had difficulty counting it out.

Caroline was quite nervous at her first senior comp (SA), and skated even slower than usual, which meant less height/rotation on the jumps, and less time to hold the spiral and spin positions. I think if she can keep her nerves at bay, and work on the speed, all those things will improve somewhat. Also, she got higher and higher levels for her spins, spirals, and step sequences throughout last season, so that's a good sign something similar will happen this season.

Considering she mainly focused on the 3F/3T in the 6 months between JW and SA, it's not surprising that she may have neglected other areas. You've got to give her credit for learning the 3/3 so quickly, and already putting it out in both the SP & LP regularly. Now she just need to get a little more rotation in...

 

[chuckm]

Yes, it's interesting that Caroline's spiral sequence was rated L4 in the SP, but only L1 in the FS. She can't afford to lose points that way.

I'm also hoping the caller at CoC will be more reasonable. There weren't anywhere near the UR calls at Skate Canada than there were at Skate America.

 

[Wrlmy]

Oh, yeah, she is definitely improving her speed on the spins, and the stretch on the spirals. But she's not naturally flexible, and her frequently ailing back means that she can't really push on the flexibility front. And I don't know why, but so few Asian skaters seem to be able to do a nice classical layback position with the foot turned out. Why is that?! How hard can it be to correct that one small detail in a spin?!

Well, it's a small but very difficult-to-acheive detail. You do need certain amount of ballet training to acheive a proper turnout. After all, Kwan never had a "classic" layback position, did she? And it's probably more difficult to maintain a speed in classic position than in so-called "ugly" position unless you are Zhang or Cohen. So I guess more skaters elect to do ugly position to get higher level of layback spin. For example, Arakawa could do classical layback position, but she elected to do otherwise many times.

 

[Fozzie Bear]

Wow, this Zhang hype sure is getting ridiculous. Caroline may have amazing spins, but she has a lot of work to do before she reaches Yu-Na's level of technical and presentation skills.

Kim is a good skater but she is so boring, she just floats around the ice with no meaning or purpose to her moves

I'd say the same thing about Zhang.

 

[bekalc]

I think the caller will be more reasonable and I do think Caroline will finish second. But what I mentioned earlier, it was something I read about Caroline over a year ago. Apparently while Caroline is an excellent competitor. According to this person, sometimes she can lose her focus and not count.

 

[chuckm]

Wow, this Zhang hype sure is getting ridiculous. Caroline may have amazing spins, but she has a lot of work to do before she reaches Yu-Na's level of technical and presentation skills.

To be fair, this is Yu-Na's fourth year of international competition. She did two years in the JGP (2004-2005 and 2005-2006), competed at 2005 and 2006 Junior Worlds, and she skated in the GP and at Senior Worlds last season.

Caroline's had just one season in the JGP, one Junior Worlds, and this is her first year in the Senior GP. She's been competing internationally for just a little over one year.

And Yu-Na is 17 to Caroline's 14. One would not expect Caroline to match Yu-Na any time soon. But just the same, she's done remarkably well for one so young. At the same age, Yu-Na had not accomplished as much.

 

[bekalc]

To be fair, this is Yu-Na's fourth year of international competition. She did two years in the JGP (2004-2005 and 2005-2006), competed at 2005 and 2006 Junior Worlds, and she skated in the GP and at Senior Worlds last season.

Caroline's had just one season in the JGP, one Junior Worlds, and this is her first year in the Senior GP. She's been competing internationally for just a little over one year.

And Yu-Na is 17 to Caroline's 14. One would not expect Caroline to match Yu-Na any time soon. But just the same, she's done remarkably well for one so young. At the same age, Yu-Na had not accomplished as much.

Yes, but as I mentioned earlier, Caroline had a lot better competition nationally then Yu-na did, and as such was much better prepared for international competition then Yu-na was.... Yu-na also had the pressure of going up against Mao Asada.

I don't think that you can underrated the benefit having strong competition is to skaters. Before Yu-na Kim came a long Korea had never even medaled at the Junior Grand Prix level. And Yu-na was winning Korean Senior national competitions at the age of 12. Reports are that Yu-na was getting quite bored with skating too (because it's like keeping Einsten in a Freshman's physics class)
Since Yu-na came along, the Koreans have had two other Junior Grand Prix medalists and some of it has to be the fact that they are starting to have a higher standard.

So the point I'm making is that Caroline had the benefit going into her first international competitions, of having stronger national competition, and of course it is going to make her a better competitor than Yu-na. Still Yu-na developed her competition medal pretty quickly, considering how well she skated her second year as a Junior. Basic skating wise, and jumping technicque, I don't think that Caroline was as strong as Yu-na. Yu-na had much stronger basics.

Beside, if Mao Asada hadn't been around, Yu-na would have won the Junior Grand Prix finals, and Junior Worlds her first year as well. It's not like Caroline had to go up against the likes of Mao. (Nor, was Caroline required to do her absolute worst jump in the short program either)