Predictions?

[slutskayafan21]

Well said bekalc! I prefer you a lot more to Slutskayafan21. I like Lambiel, but Slutskayafan21's attitude really annoyed me sometimes. It's really not necessary to keep belittling the competitors of your favorite skater, I'm getting tired of hearing the same old crap from him again and again. Enough is enough.

Trust me, I am extremely glad you dont prefer or enjoy me. :yes: If you enjoyed what I was saying I would really be worried as individuals like yourself are the last people I want to relate to.

 

[bubbleyum]

boy, do i hope yuna comes through! am nervous for her, especially with all the high expectations.

although, i think she may place on top even with some mistakes. well, as long as none of the other ladies are "perfect."

 

[Wrlmy]

Everyone is entitled to his/her opinion and should have pride in his/her favorites. Let's just maintain modicum of respect in this forum.

 

[bekalc]

Also your favorite male skater is Joubert. Dont try and convince me otherwise, some things are fairly obvious, and that is fine he is your favorite, there is nothing wrong with that. Just please dont insult my intelligence by saying it is someone else to try and bolster your argument, especialy Lambiel. I could say Lysacek or Joubert is my favorite skater to try and bolster my argument, but to people who have read my posts before it would look silly and people would see right through it.

NO my favorite skater is not Joubert. Now, it's totatlly possible that Joubert could become my favorite skater if he improves aristically. But right now he's not my favorite. He's not exciting enough. Just because I have defended Joubert and praised him in some places, doesn't mean that he's my favorite. As I said before, I try to be fair minded when it comes to the different skaters.

 

[kittycat26]

Ladies:

Gold- Caroline Zhang. This one is a lock unless the technical controller plays a role. There is simply nobody to challenge her in this field. I doubt the others can pray for 5 downgrades at Skate America. What would her score have been there without those, a 140? Kim, Kostner, or Suguri are probably not capable of the 140 or so she would have scored at Skate America without all those downgrades.

Silver- Yu Na Kim. She will get good competition for the silver with Kostner and Suguri. Suguri beat her at Skate Canada last year so is obviously a threat to her, and Kostner also can post big scores as she showed in the short program at Worlds. The battle here will be for silver but I predict Yu Na to emerge the victor.

Bronze- Again the battle seems to be a 3-way one for silver and bronze after Caroline Zhang (unless it is a really picky technical controller who downgraded Zhang and opens the door for the others). However I am going with Suguri just slightly over Kostner since she is more consistent.


Men:

Gold- Stephane Lambiel. No real competition here except himself. As others have said he can afford mistakes in this field.

Silver- Johnny Weir. I am going out on a limb a bit here. Apparently a new Johnny is in store for us. Atleast that is the press. If that is so he could shock everyone and beat Lysacek for the silver here.

Bronze- Evan Lysacek. Read above for explanation.


Pairs:

Gold- Pang/Tong. They are the strongest pair here without doubt. Just look at the field, it isnt even that good and this is a team who can conquer event strong fields. They wont be as bad as they were at Skate America where I read they were jet lagged or something.

Silver- Zhang/Wang. The Chinese have high hopes for this young pair. Their hopes will start to be fulfilled here.

Bronze- Li/Xu. I have never heard of this team, but this is such a weak field that just being a Chinese pair they will be able to beat out any of the others for a medal.


Dance:

Gold- Domnina/Shabalin. This is such a tough call between them and Belbin/
Agosto. Almost a coin flip.

Silver- Belbin/Agosto. I went with the young Russians since they seem to be rising up the ranks fast while Belbin/Agosto have been supposed to rise to the top spot in the World after being 2nd to the now retired Olympic Championship Russian team and just havent been able to get out of 3rd place even with retirements.

Bronze- Kerr/Kerr. I thought the Italians were sluggish at Skate America and the British are ranked almost the same in the World and could capatilize on that here by knocking them off for a medal.

 

[bekalc]

Gold- Caroline Zhang. This one is a lock unless the technical controller plays a role. There is simply nobody to challenge her in this field. I doubt the others can pray for 5 downgrades at Skate America. What would her score have been there without those, a 140? Kim, Kostner, or Suguri are probably not capable of the 140 or so she would have scored at Skate America without all those downgrades.

Caroline missed about 17 points with her downgrades, and so that would have given her a 113, which would have given her the win, but it's six points shy of Yu-na Kim's personal best (and that was with a fall, and a 2 footed jump from Kim).. Now, that's assuming that all of Caroline's jumps should have been credited (and some like the salchow most certainly should not have been credit).. That's also assuming in Caroline's favor that she wouldn't get some GOE's, but not likely a lot because her jumps aren't exactly super impressive.

Look for Yu-na Kim and Kostner (if Kostner is clean) to take major leads in the short program. Caroline is a talented skater, but she is not in Yu-na or Kostner's league. Yet.

 

[kittycat26]

Caroline missed about 17 points with her downgrades, and so that would have given her a 113, which would have given her the win, but it's six points shy of Yu-na Kim's personal best (and that was with a fall, and a 2 footed jump from Kim)..

Look for Yu-na Kim and Kostner (if Kostner is clean) to take major leads in the short program. Caroline is a talented skater, but she is not in Yu-na or Kostner's league. Yet.

I dont know the technical side of COP well, only know to compare PCS and see who is better there, so I guess I was wrong on the score, but on the skating itself I disagree. Caroline is superior to Kim and Kostner in every area except jump technique and speed. Spins, footwork, spirals, line, postions, posture, interpretation, choreography, she clearly tops both. Kim and Kostner are good skaters but they arent at the level of the top Japanese or Meissner.

Kim is a good skater but she is so boring, she just floats around the ice with no meaning or purpose to her moves and her posture is major ugh. Dick Button talks about her style and positions are so much worse then say Mao Asada. Kostner is just a really fast skater who does some good jumps when she doesnt crash and burn, but nothing else special to her skating. Zhang's skating between the jumps is so exciting, such spectacular spins and moves which no other women can match.

Now if the technical specialist chooses to downgrade Zhang like at Skate America then I agree Kim or Kostner might have a chance. I am assuming that wont happen, and if it doesnt there is just no challenger to her in this field.

 

[rain]

In no particular order:

Men:
Lambiel
Lysacek
Weir

Ladies:
Kim
Kostner
Suguri/ Zhang/Poykio

Pairs:
Pang/Tong
Li/Xu
Zhang/Wang
(this sure isn't much of a field)

Dance:
Belbin/Agosto
Domnina/Shabalin
Faiella/Scali

 

[bekalc]

I dont know the technical side of COP well, only know to compare PCS and see who is better there, so I guess I was wrong on the score, but on the skating itself I disagree. Caroline is superior to Kim and Kostner in every area except jump technique and speed. Spins, footwork, spirals, line, postions, posture, interpretation, choreography, she clearly tops both. Kim and Kostner are good skaters but they arent at the level of the top Japanese or Meissner.

Huh? Yu-na and Kimmie Meissner have competed against each other on four occassions, and well Yu-na has yet to place lower than Kimmie Meissner.. To say that Kimmie Meissner is on a different "level" than Yu-na, is to ignore their competitive history.

As for PCS, at worlds Yu-na and Mao received the highest PCS in both phases of the competition. So, PC wise, that's who the judges currently view are the best two skaters in the world. Caroline didn't get higher PCS than Miki or Meissner, so she's certainly not getting higher PCS than Yu-na Kim.

I like Caroline and I think her spirals and spins are better than Yu-na's but that's basically it.

 

[cosmos]

Bekalc, I think you are wasting your time. Give up.

 

[kittycat26]

Huh? Yu-na and Kimmie Meissner have competed against each other on four occassions, and well Yu-na has yet to place lower than Kimmie Meissner.. To say that Kimmie Meissner is on a different "level" than Yu-na, is to ignore their competitive history.

As for PCS, at worlds Yu-na and Mao received the highest PCS in both phases of the competition. So, PC wise, that's who the judges currently view are the best two skaters in the world. Caroline didn't get higher PCS than Miki or Meissner, so she's certainly not getting higher PCS than Yu-na Kim.

I like Caroline and I think her spirals and spins are better than Yu-na's but that's basically it.

The times Kim has better Meissner was when Kimmie made mistakes which allowed Yu-Na Kim to beat her. Kimmie had a sophomore slump last year, she had alot of pressure on her as defending champion while Yu-Na as newcomer with less hype then the Japanese had very little. Her PB in the free skate is only a 119.32. Compare that to 129.70 for Meissner. Or 127.11 for Ando. Or 133.13 for Ando. She is swamped by those girls. Kostner's PB in the free skate is only a 114.33, even further behind. Yeah Kim and Kostner have big short program PBs but you dont win an event in the short, you only dont lose it. Neither have ever shown they can keep up with Meissner, Ando, or Asada at their best in free skating where the medals are usually decided.

Worlds is one competition. Just because Kim and Asada got the highest PCS in Asia does not mean it will always be that. Wait until later in the year before declaring that a theme.

Zhang was a newbie in her first GP event. She is age-ineligible for Worlds. It is possible the judges found excues to take marks from her and not just downgrades maybe even. I think by her 2nd event they will come to grips that this girl is for real and isnt going away and it is time they learn to deal with it.

 

[bekalc]

The times Kim has better Meissner was when Kimmie made mistakes which allowed Yu-Na Kim to beat her. Kimmie had a sophomore slump last year, she had alot of pressure on her as defending champion while Yu-Na as newcomer with less hype then the Japanese had very little. Her PB in the free skate is only a 119.32. Compare that to 129.70 for Meissner. Or 127.11 for Ando. Or 133.13 for Ando. She is swamped by those girls. Kostner's PB in the free skate is only a 114.33, even further behind. Yeah Kim and Kostner have big short program PBs but you dont win an event in the short, you only dont lose it. Neither have ever shown they can keep up with Meissner, Ando, or Asada at their best in free skating where the medals are usually decided.

Worlds is one competition. Just because Kim and Asada got the highest PCS in Asia does not mean it will always be that. Wait until later in the year before declaring that a theme.

Zhang was a newbie in her first GP event. She is age-ineligible for Worlds. It is possible the judges found excues to take marks from her and not just downgrades maybe even. I think by her 2nd event they will come to grips that this girl is for real and isnt going away and it is time they learn to deal with it.

Sure...I will probably take the advice the person ahead of me at this point. But I will point out to you that Yu-na was a strong long program skater as a Junior (I looked at her past competitions) but last year the girl was plagued with injuries, and really didn't have a clean long program. But last year, with two falls, Yu-na would have still beaten Meissner in the long program, if she hadn't added that double jump to one of her triples.

Most people regard Yu-na as stronger than Meissner and Ando artistically, and Yu-na is a better jumper than Meissner. For example, Meissner's triple/triples rarely get ratified. Wherea's Yu-na Kim has the best triple/triple in the business... Yu-na has textbook jumping technique, and she gets high GOE's on her jumps. And it's only fair to point out that yes Meissner made mistakes in her meetings with Yu-na, but so did Yu-na Kim. Hey, your entitled to your opinion. But don't be surprised if Yu-na wins this competition by quite a large margin...

 

[slutskayafan21]

is to ignore their competitive history.

Just like your prediction of Lysacek and Weir to beat Lambiel if he isnt perfect blatantly ignores the strong evidence given by much competitive history. I guess different rules apply when you arguing in favor of a certain skater though.

So, PC wise, that's who the judges currently view are the best two skaters in the world.

Just like the PC scores of the judges at Worlds clearly shows where Lambiel sits compared to Lysacek or Weir. I guess that isnt important when it is something that isnt convenient to your argument though, but becomes important when it is.

 

[kittycat26]

Yu na had a 119 with a fall and a step out. Also, in the beginning, she wasn't given exactly high PC scores. Besides in those competitions you mentioned, Yu-na also made mistakes. But, well I realize that there's absolutely no talking to you about this.. Why don't we wait to Cup of China, and we will see whose right there.

If the best she ever did for a score was with a fall and a step out in all those chances perhaps she is not capable of doing a clean free skate. After all she has had not only a full year of senior competition experience, but she was age eligible for the Senior GP part of it it like Zhang is this year for two years. Yet the best score she could manage was with 2 big mistakes, well she had that long to do it, that may still be the best she can do.

 

[bekalc]

Just like your prediction of Lysacek and Weir to beat Lambiel if he isnt perfect blatantly ignores the strong evidence given by much competitive history. I guess different rules apply when you arguing in favor of a certain skater though.

NO, I said that Lambiel has a two fall lead over Lyseck/Weir at the very least.... I never said that Lambiel would have to be perfect. Of course Lambiel would have to have a disaster skate for Lyseck/Weir to beat him.

There's a difference between saying that your not sure the better skater will win, because he doesn't sound like he's in great condition, and saying a skater is better than another skater all together. But, I do realize the irony...LOL!

If the best she ever did for a score was with a fall and a step out in all those chances perhaps she is not capable of doing a clean free skate. After all she has had not only a full year of senior competition experience, but she was age eligible for the Senior GP part of it it like Zhang is this year for two years. Yet the best score she could manage was with 2 big mistakes, well she had that long to do it, that may still be the best she can do.

Yu-na put up a 116 as a Junior at Junior Worlds, which is higher than Caroline Zhang has ever gotten in a competition. That's a huge number for a junior because there are two less elements and Juniors always get lower PCS than Seniors. As I said earlier, Yu-n was a strong long program skater as a Junior.

Yu-na didn't compete on the Senior Grand Prix, early like Caroline, that was her team's choice. But as mentioned earlier, Yu-na was injured all last year. Let's see what Yu-na does healthy before we say anything. And even so, Yu-na willl likely get a huge lead over Caroline Zhang in the short program anyways. Caroline herself hasn't gotten anywhere close to 119. And Kimmie got that high of a score once. Kimmie really isn't that consistent.
Hey we will see in a couple of days.

 

[kittycat26]

Yu-na put up a 116 as a Junior at Junior Worlds, which is higher than Caroline Zhang has ever gotten in a competition. That's a huge number for a junior because there are two less elements and Juniors always get lower PCS than Seniors. As I said earlier, Yu-n was a strong long program skater as a Junior.

Yu-na didn't compete on the Senior Grand Prix, early like Caroline, that was her team's choice. But as mentioned earlier, Yu-na was injured all last year. Let's see what Yu-na does healthy before we say anything. And even so, Yu-na willl likely get a huge lead over Caroline Zhang in the short program anyways. Caroline herself hasn't gotten anywhere close to 119.

Hey we will see we have two days.

Yu-na put up the 116 in her second year of juniors though, where she is the same age as Caroline is this year when Caroline could be doing the JGP circuit and chooses, unlike Yu-Na, to not take the easy path and do the SGP circuit instead. What was her PB in her first year in junior and how did it compare to Zhang's 110.08 PB of last year where she was the same age as Kim's first year of junior?

Yu-na was injured all last year and why she could never do a PB better then a free program with 2 big mistakes (according to even you)? Well fine, maybe healthy she could do better then but who is to say she is capable of staying healthy. Chronic back problems at that still young age are not neccessarily a great sign.

 

[bekalc]

Yu-na put up the 116 in her second year of juniors though, where she is the same age as Caroline is this year when Caroline could be doing the JGP circuit and chooses, unlike Yu-Na, to not take the easy path and do the SGP circuit instead. What was her PB in her first year in junior and how did it compare to Zhang's 110.08 PB of last year where she was the same age as Kim's first year of junior?

Yu-na was injured all last year and why she could never do a PB better then a free program with 2 big mistakes (according to even you)? Well fine, maybe healthy she could do better then but who is to say she is capable of staying healthy. Chronic back problems at that still young age are not neccessarily a great sign.

Yu na got a 110.26 as a first year junior. Her free program at Trophy B didn't have two major mistakes, one fall on double axel and a stepout. She also didn't get the PCS she normally gets. But I wouldn't say they were major mistakes. Nor did she have a major/major mistake at GPF, she just stepped out of her double axel, and couldn't do the triple toe. Her performance there was also tenative compared to the one in France. (probaby her injury).

I wouldn't say Yu-na's back problem is chronic. It's supposedly healed and she has therapy to maintain it. She had other injuries before that, mainly her issue was that she had boot problems, so that was probably a major reason for all of her injuries. Now that the boot problem is fixed, and they are maintaining her back and being careful. Yu-na will probably be fine. Sasha was out with a boot injury too.
Here's a point. Now that the judging rules have gotten more strict, Yu-na stands in very good stead because her technique jumping wise is textbook. She doesn't seem to have problems fully rotating her 3/3 either.

 

[feraina]

Yu-na put up the 116 in her second year of juniors though, where she is the same age as Caroline is this year when Caroline could be doing the JGP circuit and chooses, unlike Yu-Na, to not take the easy path and do the SGP circuit instead. What was her PB in her first year in junior and how did it compare to Zhang's 110.08 PB of last year where she was the same age as Kim's first year of junior?

Yu-na was 15 when she put up the 116, whereas Caroline was only 13 when she got 110, so there are really two years of difference in age. Anyway, those scores are not hugely different, considering the inconsistency of CoP judging from event to event. Also, Yu-na was quite inconsistent with her jumps in her first year on the JGP circuit -- that's what I remember from watching her earlier videos on youtube, she was falling/popping quite a bit.

I love Yu-na, she's one of my favorite skaters. But there are certain things that she's not very good at (her spins are not that fast, her layback position in particular is ugly, and her spirals are nothing to write home about) which Caroline excels in, and I don't think that she will ever gain amazing spins or spirals. That is not take anything away from Yu-na's gorgeous 3F/3T. The distance and height she gets on her triples are probably also things that Caroline will never attain. Different athletes are genetically endowed with different natural talents, Yu-na's are in the jumps department, Caroline's in spins and spirals. Unfortunately for Caroline, in the sport of skating, jumps will always count more...

 

[cosmos]

I don't think that she will ever gain amazing spins or spirals.

You may be right. However, her spins and spirals are (or will be) good enough to get scores. Anyway, you will see improved ones from her this season.

 

[BelleFilleYuna]

Oh boy, can't we just wait and see....
I'm getting really nervous and actually hoping somebody would put Yuna away from the podium, so that she couldnot be jinxed!!