You mean Meissner.
Predictions?
- Thread starter fsfan22
- Start date
You mean Meissner.
No, no predictions from me. Earlier this year I had already predicted Johnny placing 8th and below at Worlds, and look what happened.
I wish Johnny went for a quad in the long. And if he did, then not with the fluffernutter on his mind, but something positive instead, like 'ready' or 'go'. Yeah, something like that.
I wish Johnny went for a quad in the long. And if he did, then not with the fluffernutter on his mind, but something positive instead, like 'ready' or 'go'. Yeah, something like that.
I agree. As I said, it's unfair to compare a 17-year-old with 4 solid year's international competition under her belt to a 14-year-old with very limited experience.
The only way to acquire the competition experience is to compete at the highest level possible. Kimmie Meissner didn't win a medal at her first two GP events, but the experience helped her to win the World Championship that year.
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Yes, and Yu-Na was 15 years old in her second season, and it was her second full year of competition. Caroline was 13 when she won Junior Worlds 2007 and it was her first year of competition.
Here are Yu-Na's scores from her first year of competition, compared to Caroline's (you're still comparing a 14 year-old to a 13-year old):
158.93 48.67 110.26 JR WORLDS 2004
137.75 51.27 86.48 JGPF 2004
131.22 38.87 92.35 JGP CHN 2004
148.55 47.23 101.32 JGP HUN 2004
169.25 59.17 110.08 JR WORLDS 2007
162.68 56.28 106.40 JGPF 2006
162.42 57.36 105.06 JGP TPE 2006
162.43 58.93 103.50 JGP MEX 2006
As you said, Yu-Na had no competition at her Nationals. Zhang was defeated by Mirai Nagasu, who is a budding champion in her own right. But Caroline turned the tables on Mirai at Jr Worlds, didn't she?
I do not believe that Zhang has any chance of beating Yu-Na at Cup of China unless Yu-Na has a major meltdown. But I see no need to put Zhang down as somehow 'not as good'.
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- Joined
- Mar 28, 2005
What will be interesting is to see where Zhang and Nagasu, and even maybe Flatt and Wagner, are compared to people like Kim, Asada, Ando, and Meissner 2 years from now as we approach the Olympics. Of course now I think we all agree the very young vets (vets relatively speaking of course 
) have the upper hand, but how much will the playing field have leveled by then, or will it have?
I sort of question if Ando will even stay in for the next Olympics. She looked alot like a women without drive at Skate America, but maybe I am being unfair to judge her by one event, especialy coming off an injury. It could be with all the up and downs she has had in her still fairly brief senior career, she may feel fulfilled winning that World title, and not feel much motivation left to keep butting heads with the new darling of Japanes skating, Mrs. Asada.
) have the upper hand, but how much will the playing field have leveled by then, or will it have?I sort of question if Ando will even stay in for the next Olympics. She looked alot like a women without drive at Skate America, but maybe I am being unfair to judge her by one event, especialy coming off an injury. It could be with all the up and downs she has had in her still fairly brief senior career, she may feel fulfilled winning that World title, and not feel much motivation left to keep butting heads with the new darling of Japanes skating, Mrs. Asada.
Chuck, Age or how a person did in their first international competition/major competition isn't necessarily a good prediction of which skater will be more successful.
Before last year, Rachael Flatt was considered to be a more impressive skater than Zhang, but Rachael was injured and Zhang improved.
If I recall correctly Jenny Kirk landed a 7 triple performance and kicked Sasha Cohen's butt at Junior worlds when both were pretty young, and we all know who ended up more successful. Most people say part of Jenny's problem (lack of motivation after mom died) but also Jenny's jumps weren't that high, and when she became taller, well there became more problems.
That's why I tend to look for skaters with strong technical skills/strong basics. Yu-na Kim's last year of Juniors proves that she has the mental strength to lay strong programs down and dominate, along with handling being the favorite. Who really cares if it took Yu-na a year longer than Zhang to develop this? Last year, Yu-na was dealing with injuries, so we don't know.
My issue with Zhang is while she seems to have a strong competive spirit. She doesn't have the best jumping technique, nor does she seem to have strong basic skills. Because of this Zhang could easily turn into another Jenny Kirk especially as she gets older..
Frankly, I'm tired of going for the cutiest, most flexible young skater. In my experience some of the most succesful skaters with the most long lasting careers had strong basics as a child and not necessarily the strongest presentation skills at first. So that's what I'm looking for. Especially now that the technical standards are a lot stricter than they were during Hughes/Tara's day.
Before last year, Rachael Flatt was considered to be a more impressive skater than Zhang, but Rachael was injured and Zhang improved.
If I recall correctly Jenny Kirk landed a 7 triple performance and kicked Sasha Cohen's butt at Junior worlds when both were pretty young, and we all know who ended up more successful. Most people say part of Jenny's problem (lack of motivation after mom died) but also Jenny's jumps weren't that high, and when she became taller, well there became more problems.
That's why I tend to look for skaters with strong technical skills/strong basics. Yu-na Kim's last year of Juniors proves that she has the mental strength to lay strong programs down and dominate, along with handling being the favorite. Who really cares if it took Yu-na a year longer than Zhang to develop this? Last year, Yu-na was dealing with injuries, so we don't know.
My issue with Zhang is while she seems to have a strong competive spirit. She doesn't have the best jumping technique, nor does she seem to have strong basic skills. Because of this Zhang could easily turn into another Jenny Kirk especially as she gets older..
Frankly, I'm tired of going for the cutiest, most flexible young skater. In my experience some of the most succesful skaters with the most long lasting careers had strong basics as a child and not necessarily the strongest presentation skills at first. So that's what I'm looking for. Especially now that the technical standards are a lot stricter than they were during Hughes/Tara's day.
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Mao Asada has just as many basic skating problems as Zhang. Mao doesn't use the toe loop because she toe axels, and she has never done a salchow in competition. She has one of the worst flutzes in the business, and she tends to underrotate her loop when it is in combination. Lately her 3A is among the missing.
Caroline needs to work on her habit of underrotating, her mule kick entrance into the lutz, and holding the spiral position for the requisite number of seconds.
BTW, Jenny Kirk never grew really tall, so growth was not the source of her jump problems. What happened to her was her mother died and so did her confidence. She was never the same skater after that.
Caroline Zhang is Asian-American and probably will remain relatively small even after she matures, much like Yamaguchi, Kwan and Suguri. The Asada sisters and Miki Ando are tall, but they are the exception among Asian skaters.
Caroline needs to work on her habit of underrotating, her mule kick entrance into the lutz, and holding the spiral position for the requisite number of seconds.
BTW, Jenny Kirk never grew really tall, so growth was not the source of her jump problems. What happened to her was her mother died and so did her confidence. She was never the same skater after that.
Caroline Zhang is Asian-American and probably will remain relatively small even after she matures, much like Yamaguchi, Kwan and Suguri. The Asada sisters and Miki Ando are tall, but they are the exception among Asian skaters.
I think that Mao Asada can be hurt by her technique problems as well. I wouldn't be surprised if with all the hype Mao got if because of those technical problems, Yu-na becomes a world champion before her. Once again it's an issue of one girl having hype and a big trick, and another girl having the better basics at least in jumping technique. I stick by my insertion that basic jumping technique is incredibly important.
And while I realize that Caroline might not grow that tall, even a few inches could hurt. I would have to see pictures of Caroline's parents before you can say that Caroline won't grow at all...Even a few inches growth can make a difference. After all, Caroline had problems underotating when she was smaller, so a few inches can cause a problem. And I've heard a lot of people say that those few inches Jenny grew did cause her a problem. Who knows. But really it's ridiculous to say, someone's Asian American so they won't grow tall at all. When we have Yu-na Kim, Mao, and Shiz who are quite tall.
And as for Lambiel, I was just reading from other reports besides Joubert that Lambiel's jumps were MIA at Golden Skate. So, I stand by my prediction, even though I hope I'm wrong.
Oh, and someone posted these on another board if you want to do a fair comparison. Both Yu-na and Caroline are 14 1/2.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=XQwvyGtI4Qo
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ya0rxyJLxTQ
My feelings: Caroline is better at the spins/definetly spirals and presentation. But I think Yu-na is the better technical skater, has better jumps, and seems faster with more ice coverage. Wow Yu-na has certainly grown pretty in the last few years as well!
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FYI, Jenny Kirk is 5'2"--about the same size as Sasha Cohen, and smaller than Irina Slutskaya and Michelle Kwan (who are 5'3"). I've seen Jenny in person, and she is really tiny.
Arakawa is about 5'5 1/2", one of the tallest skaters. Emily Hughes is 5'6".
Ando is about 5'4", and Meissner is 5'5".
Arakawa is about 5'5 1/2", one of the tallest skaters. Emily Hughes is 5'6".
Ando is about 5'4", and Meissner is 5'5".
That's besides the point. The point is that if your technique is off. It can hurt your jumps, if you grow a few inches. It's a lot easier when your 4'11 than 5'2. Although I guess one could argue that the skate by Jenny was just a skate of the life time. Michelle Kwan/ Arakawa had a lot better jumping technique than Jenny. In fact, Jenny had a similarily kicking high free leg.
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My predictions? Please insert tongue in cheek. 
1. Evan will wear black
2. A Chinese pair will win
3. Johnny will either skate very well or will totally blow it.
4. Stephane will cry if he wins
5. No matter who wins in ice dance, someone will swear that the silver medalists were robbed.
1. Evan will wear black
2. A Chinese pair will win
3. Johnny will either skate very well or will totally blow it.
4. Stephane will cry if he wins
5. No matter who wins in ice dance, someone will swear that the silver medalists were robbed.
My predictions? Please insert tongue in cheek.
5. No matter who wins in ice dance, someone will swear that the silver medalists were robbed.
Unless Ben's hat falls off in the OD. Then it'll become an illegal costume element and knock Tanith and Ben two points down. Which would just be sad.
Unless, of course, it doesn't fall off and someone just declares it illegal when it wasn't in Skate America. If that happens tape your windows up!
- Joined
- Oct 27, 2006
!. I agree...he is also right at this time entering and leaving the practice sessions from another place then the other skaters because he is just that special!! NOT
2. Is there even a competition for the chinese pair team? I never even have heard of half of those teams.
3. My guess is Johnny will rock one program and blow the other. He can never do to clean programs. In addition his costume will probably be something really .....well really something.
4. Stephane should change his name to Stephanie....he probably will cry for one reason or another...hopefully he will lose so we can really hear the water works.
5. This will probably apply for then men, dance and the ladies. Someone always thinks they are robbed.
Here is an added noted....discoduck is thinking of ways right now to piss off Morosov next year at Skate America!!
2. Is there even a competition for the chinese pair team? I never even have heard of half of those teams.
3. My guess is Johnny will rock one program and blow the other. He can never do to clean programs. In addition his costume will probably be something really .....well really something.
4. Stephane should change his name to Stephanie....he probably will cry for one reason or another...hopefully he will lose so we can really hear the water works.
5. This will probably apply for then men, dance and the ladies. Someone always thinks they are robbed.
Here is an added noted....discoduck is thinking of ways right now to piss off Morosov next year at Skate America!!
My predictions? Please insert tongue in cheek.
1. Evan will wear black
2. A Chinese pair will win
3. Johnny will either skate very well or will totally blow it.
4. Stephane will cry if he wins
5. No matter who wins in ice dance, someone will swear that the silver medalists were robbed.
Caroline's current scoring potential
Some may be underestimating Caroline Zhang's potential to put up a very high score. If she maintains her Skate America programs and performs them flawlessly, she'll score around 183.54 points. Caroline's personal best is 169.25 without the 4th spin in the FS. Yu-Na Kim's personal best is 186.14, Suguri's is 182.08, Kostner's is 174.79, Czisny's is 168.32, Sebestyen's is 165.22, Poykio's is 163.98, and Liang's is 159.91.
I'll go with:
1) Kim
2) Zhang
3) Kostner (the location of the GPF in Torino, Italy insures her motivation)
Caroline landed 10* triples, 9 of those cleanly and 4 in combinations, at Skate America.
Caroline got 5.04 more PC points at Skate America than she got at junior Worlds. :thumbsup:
Here are comparisons of her programs from junior Worlds and Skate America, with the focus on the base values of the elements.
Skate America SP: http://www.isufs.org/results/gpusa07/sa07_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf
junior Worlds SP: http://www.isufs.org/results/wjc2007/wjc07_JuniorLadies_SP_Scores.pdf
3F+3T vs. 3Lz+2T, +2.2
3Lz vs. 3F, +0.50
FSSp3 vs. FCSp3, =
2A vs. 2A, =
CCoSp3 vs. CCoSp4, -0.50
SlSt2 vs. SlSt2, =
SpSq4 vs. SpSq4, =
LSp3 vs. LSp2, +0.60
The total increase in the base values of her SP was 2.80. The bulk of that increase came from the triple-triple.
The total of the base values of her Skate America SP is 32.4.
The total of Caroline's junior Worlds SP points, the increase in the base values of her Skate America SP, and the increase in the PCS of her Skate America SP is 63.7.
Skate America FS: http://www.isufs.org/results/gpusa07/sa07_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf
junior Worlds FS: http://www.isufs.org/results/wjc2007/wjc07_JuniorLadies_FS_Scores.pdf
3F+3T vs. 3F+2T, +2.7
3Lz+2T vs. 3T+2T x, +1.47
3S vs. 3Lo, -0.50
2A vs. 2A, =
FSSp3 vs. FCSp2, +0.30
CoSp4 vs. nothing, +3.00
3F x vs. 3F x, =
SpSq1 vs. SpSq4, -1.60
3Lo+2T+2Lo x vs. 3Lz+2T+2Lo, -0.22
3Lz x vs. 3Lz x, =
CiSt2 vs. SlSt2, =
LSp4 vs. LSp3, +0.20
CCoSp3 vs. CCoSp4, -0.50
The total increase in the base values of her FS was 4.85, or more accurately 6.45 if one discounts her spiral sequence mental lapse. The bulk of that increase came from her new 3S (as the triple-triple freed up a jump element slot) and the additional spin allowed for senior ladies.
The total of the base values of her Skate America FS is 61.03.
The total of Caroline's junior Worlds FS points, the increase in the base values of her Skate America FS, and the increase in the PCS of her Skate America FS is 118.24.
The combined increase in the base values of her SP+FS was 9.25. Add 9.25 and 5.04 (the total increase in PCS) to Zhang's junior Worlds score of 169.25 and the total becomes 183.54. Zhang's score at Skate America was 153.35. The difference is 30.19. Approximately 6 of those lost points were due to Zhang's two-footed 3S and the spiral sequence mental lapse. The remaining approximately 24 points were mainly lost due to the stricter calling of the technical specialist and the judges compared to those at junior Worlds. Excluding the 3S, that comes out to almost 5 points per under-rotated jump.
For what it's worth, 183.54 is higher than the winning score last year at Skate Canada, the Cup of China, the Cup of Russia, US Nationals, and Four Continents. It's higher than the score for 2nd at the GPF and the score for 4th at the World Championships.
By the way, if the ISU gave more reasonable values for under-rotated triples, like halfway between the base value of a triple and double (rounded to the nearest tenth of a point), Zhang's Skate America total would've been 162.45. That value does not include any changes to the two-footed 3S or to any GOE values.
I hope Caroline will maintain her Skate America programs, look for ways to squeeze out another one-eighth rotation in her jumps, and tries to get the maximum levels for her spins. Only after that should she try to deepen the outside edge on her 3Lz. If she's still struggling with her 3S, she can replace it with another 2A (a jump Caroline does well). The benefits of sticking with their original programs outweigh the risks of simplifying them, IMO.
Notes on the calculations: I indirectly, but did not fully take into account GOEs. I solely used this season's scale of values (the value of the 2A changed).
Some may be underestimating Caroline Zhang's potential to put up a very high score. If she maintains her Skate America programs and performs them flawlessly, she'll score around 183.54 points. Caroline's personal best is 169.25 without the 4th spin in the FS. Yu-Na Kim's personal best is 186.14, Suguri's is 182.08, Kostner's is 174.79, Czisny's is 168.32, Sebestyen's is 165.22, Poykio's is 163.98, and Liang's is 159.91.
I'll go with:
1) Kim
2) Zhang
3) Kostner (the location of the GPF in Torino, Italy insures her motivation)
Caroline landed 10* triples, 9 of those cleanly and 4 in combinations, at Skate America.
Caroline got 5.04 more PC points at Skate America than she got at junior Worlds. :thumbsup:
Here are comparisons of her programs from junior Worlds and Skate America, with the focus on the base values of the elements.
Skate America SP: http://www.isufs.org/results/gpusa07/sa07_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf
junior Worlds SP: http://www.isufs.org/results/wjc2007/wjc07_JuniorLadies_SP_Scores.pdf
3F+3T vs. 3Lz+2T, +2.2
3Lz vs. 3F, +0.50
FSSp3 vs. FCSp3, =
2A vs. 2A, =
CCoSp3 vs. CCoSp4, -0.50
SlSt2 vs. SlSt2, =
SpSq4 vs. SpSq4, =
LSp3 vs. LSp2, +0.60
The total increase in the base values of her SP was 2.80. The bulk of that increase came from the triple-triple.
The total of the base values of her Skate America SP is 32.4.
The total of Caroline's junior Worlds SP points, the increase in the base values of her Skate America SP, and the increase in the PCS of her Skate America SP is 63.7.
Skate America FS: http://www.isufs.org/results/gpusa07/sa07_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf
junior Worlds FS: http://www.isufs.org/results/wjc2007/wjc07_JuniorLadies_FS_Scores.pdf
3F+3T vs. 3F+2T, +2.7
3Lz+2T vs. 3T+2T x, +1.47
3S vs. 3Lo, -0.50
2A vs. 2A, =
FSSp3 vs. FCSp2, +0.30
CoSp4 vs. nothing, +3.00
3F x vs. 3F x, =
SpSq1 vs. SpSq4, -1.60
3Lo+2T+2Lo x vs. 3Lz+2T+2Lo, -0.22
3Lz x vs. 3Lz x, =
CiSt2 vs. SlSt2, =
LSp4 vs. LSp3, +0.20
CCoSp3 vs. CCoSp4, -0.50
The total increase in the base values of her FS was 4.85, or more accurately 6.45 if one discounts her spiral sequence mental lapse. The bulk of that increase came from her new 3S (as the triple-triple freed up a jump element slot) and the additional spin allowed for senior ladies.
The total of the base values of her Skate America FS is 61.03.
The total of Caroline's junior Worlds FS points, the increase in the base values of her Skate America FS, and the increase in the PCS of her Skate America FS is 118.24.
The combined increase in the base values of her SP+FS was 9.25. Add 9.25 and 5.04 (the total increase in PCS) to Zhang's junior Worlds score of 169.25 and the total becomes 183.54. Zhang's score at Skate America was 153.35. The difference is 30.19. Approximately 6 of those lost points were due to Zhang's two-footed 3S and the spiral sequence mental lapse. The remaining approximately 24 points were mainly lost due to the stricter calling of the technical specialist and the judges compared to those at junior Worlds. Excluding the 3S, that comes out to almost 5 points per under-rotated jump.
For what it's worth, 183.54 is higher than the winning score last year at Skate Canada, the Cup of China, the Cup of Russia, US Nationals, and Four Continents. It's higher than the score for 2nd at the GPF and the score for 4th at the World Championships.
By the way, if the ISU gave more reasonable values for under-rotated triples, like halfway between the base value of a triple and double (rounded to the nearest tenth of a point), Zhang's Skate America total would've been 162.45. That value does not include any changes to the two-footed 3S or to any GOE values.
I hope Caroline will maintain her Skate America programs, look for ways to squeeze out another one-eighth rotation in her jumps, and tries to get the maximum levels for her spins. Only after that should she try to deepen the outside edge on her 3Lz. If she's still struggling with her 3S, she can replace it with another 2A (a jump Caroline does well). The benefits of sticking with their original programs outweigh the risks of simplifying them, IMO.
Notes on the calculations: I indirectly, but did not fully take into account GOEs. I solely used this season's scale of values (the value of the 2A changed).
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Wow, thanks for doing all the hard work of putting together those numbers. While I believe Caroline has the potential to score 180+ at some point, perhaps by the end of this season barring injuries, I feel like with the new programs, new jumps (3/3 & 3S), as well as the stricter jump callers, it will be great for her if she can just improve on her PB and break 170! That should be high enough to get her a silver, unless Carolina shocks us all by skating two perfectly clean programs...
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
My predictions? Please insert tongue in cheek.
1. Evan will wear black
2. A Chinese pair will win
3. Johnny will either skate very well or will totally blow it.
4. Stephane will cry if he wins
5. No matter who wins in ice dance, someone will swear that the silver medalists were robbed.
That about sums it up, but I could add the posts will be arguments about YuNa and Caroline.
Joe
Thanks. Some of your archived posts provided motivation and help to get it done.
Let's not give up on 190+ points by the end of the season. :yes: As Caroline grows, she'll get stronger and lovelier. How likely is a further 10 point increase in her PCS at 4Continents? Her spins are already breath-taking, but I think she can get even higher GOEs and levels, for 3 to 4 more points. Her bright future may make it easier to forgive that Skate America technical specialist if Caroline gets a silver medal here and yet misses the GPF due to tie-breakers.
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If Caroline continues to improve, so should her PCS scores.
Last year, Yu-Na was in a similar position, coming into her first GP events after winning Junior Worlds 06 (of course, Yu-Na was 16 to Caroline's 14). Look how Yu-Na's PCS scores increased as the season went on:
6.45 5.90 6.30 6.25 6.15 SC 06
7.10 6.65 6.90 6.95 6.90
7.10 6.60 6.90 6.95 6.85 TEB 06
7.35 6.90 7.15 7.20 7.20
7.55 7.20 7.45 7.50 7.60 GPF 06
7.25 7.00 7.10 7.25 7.25
7.79 7.21 7.71 7.61 7.75 W07
7.68 7.18 7.50 7.43 7.36
I am NOT saying that Caroline's scores will be as high as Yu-Na's were last year, but if Caroline does improve, she should see her scores go up.
Here's what Caroline scored at SA:
6.80 5.95 6.75 6.60 6.75
6.55 6.00 6.50 6.70 6.60
Last year, Yu-Na was in a similar position, coming into her first GP events after winning Junior Worlds 06 (of course, Yu-Na was 16 to Caroline's 14). Look how Yu-Na's PCS scores increased as the season went on:
6.45 5.90 6.30 6.25 6.15 SC 06
7.10 6.65 6.90 6.95 6.90
7.10 6.60 6.90 6.95 6.85 TEB 06
7.35 6.90 7.15 7.20 7.20
7.55 7.20 7.45 7.50 7.60 GPF 06
7.25 7.00 7.10 7.25 7.25
7.79 7.21 7.71 7.61 7.75 W07
7.68 7.18 7.50 7.43 7.36
I am NOT saying that Caroline's scores will be as high as Yu-Na's were last year, but if Caroline does improve, she should see her scores go up.
Here's what Caroline scored at SA:
6.80 5.95 6.75 6.60 6.75
6.55 6.00 6.50 6.70 6.60
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