Predictions?

[Wrlmy]

We are just having the same debate over and over again. Everyone already has own opinions and preferences, and I doubt anyone's going to be convinced by someone else. Let's just postpone such debate until after we get the result.
And bekalc, as much as I personally agree with you on many of your points, you don't have to respond to every post that deviates from your opinion. I think, by this time, everyone knows what you believe in, and I can pretty much imagine your responses to such posts, sans your actual response. I am not trying to blame you or anything, because I don't find anything inappropriate or wrong in the content of your posts, but you've been repeating yourself for quite a few days.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Pairs
1) Pang/Tong
2) & 3) - up in the air (not much of a contest as of yet)

That's what we thought at Skate America

 

[slutskayafan21]

Btw, if Caroline had all her jumps rotated, and assuming she gets 0 GOE on average, she would gain 18 points on her SA LP score, which gives her 115. That's something that Yu-na would need to skate near her best in order to beat.

Yu-Na does not need to skate her best to win a competition over a 115. As bekalc mentioned she scored higher then that multiple times with multiple mistakes. At Worlds she had 3 major mistakes, 2 falls on triple lutzes, and another jump discounted, and still scored almost a 115. There is a good chance a perfect Yu-Na could top crack 130. On top of that she should be far ahead of Caroline after the short as bekalc said (I cant believe I am agreeing with bekalc on something) so she would not even need that score to win. Yu-Na would have alot of room for error even if all of Caroline had all her jumps ratified. Also the odds of Caroline having all her mechanically flawed jumps ratified is even less then Yu-Na finally doing a clean long program.

I really like Caroline actually and hope to see her on the podium again. However Yu-Na will have to bomb completely to be in any danger of losing to her at this point, and even then she might come out ahead.

 

[carolinefan177]

We are just having the same debate over and over again. Everyone already has own opinions and preferences, and I doubt anyone's going to be convinced by someone else. Let's just postpone such debate until after we get the result.
And bekalc, as much as I personally agree with you on many of your points, you don't have to respond to every post that deviates from your opinion. I think, by this time, everyone knows what you believe in, and I can pretty much imagine your responses to such posts, sans your actual response. I am not trying to blame you or anything, because I don't find anything inappropriate or wrong in the content of your posts, but you've been repeating yourself for quite a few days.

Well, personally, I enjoy Bekalc's posts. I feel that this person usually takes an objective stance regarding the skaters, and I appreciate that. Many posters are subjective and emotionally loaded when posting, and I think that Bekalc is doing a wonderful job about making sure not to bash a skater, and in correlation with this,h/s has provided some pretty good arguments (based on competive history, jump statistics, etc).

Say what needs to be said Bekalc!

Edit
I love Caroline, and I hope she wins, but that's highly unlikely. As her fan, though, I will stick with these predictions:

1. Caroline Z
2. Yu-Na Kim
3. Fumie Suguri

and btw,
sometimes repetition is necessary in getting a particular point across to the reader

 

[bekalc]

Yu-Na does not need to skate her best to win a competition over a 115. As bekalc mentioned she scored higher then that multiple times with multiple mistakes. At Worlds she had 3 major mistakes, 2 falls on triple lutzes, and another jump discounted, and still scored almost a 115. There is a good chance a perfect Yu-Na could top crack 130. On top of that she should be far ahead of Caroline after the short as bekalc said (I cant believe I am agreeing with bekalc on something) so she would not even need that score to win. Yu-Na would have alot of room for error even if all of Caroline had all her jumps ratified. Also the odds of Caroline having all her mechanically flawed jumps ratified is even less then Yu-Na finally doing a clean long program.

I really like Caroline actually and hope to see her on the podium again. However Yu-Na will have to bomb completely to be in any danger of losing to her at this point, and even then she might come out ahead.

Slutskaya, can I say the same about Lambiel. He will have to bomb comletely, and even then the others might not beat him. (I thought I'd give you a bone..)

As for Yu-na Kim, she reportedly through her agent made a comment about the tougher jumping:
"I have always tried to get textbook techniques. I am not worrying much."

 

[chuckm]

Yes, but as I mentioned earlier, Caroline had a lot better competition nationally then Yu-na did, and as such was much better prepared for international competition then Yu-na was.... Yu-na also had the pressure of going up against Mao Asada.

Yu-Na didn't have the pressure of going against Mao in the 2005/2006 JGP. She had NO competition in that JGP season at all, because Mao had moved up to the GP.

Yes, there is competition in the US, but Caroline was not exactly a star at an early age. Caroline never won a Novice or Intermediate title, and in her first try at the Junior level, she finished 8th because she was not rotating her triples. And if you saw some of the Nationals competitions in the US, particularly at the Junior and Senior levels, you wouldn't be impressed. At the recent Regional events, much of the skating was blah and the scores weren't great. There were very few standouts. Caroline had similar competition at the Junior level the first time around, and she finished only 3rd at her Sectional going into Nationals in 2006.

Yu-Na is naturally talented, and so is Caroline Zhang, but both have weaknesses. Yu-Na has back problems and that likely handicaps her in terms of flexibility and stamina, and Caroline has problems with her jumps.

But it is NOT fair to compare a 17 year-old with a 14 year-old. Yu-Na was 14 her first year in the JGP, and Caroline was only 13. That makes a difference, too.

 

[Wrlmy]

Well, personally, I enjoy Bekalc's posts. I feel that this person usually takes an objective stance regarding the skaters, and I appreciate that. Many posters are subjective and emotionally loaded when posting, and I think that Bekalc is doing a wonderful job about making sure not to bash a skater, and in correlation with this,h/s has provided some pretty good arguments (based on competive history, jump statistics, etc).

Say what needs to be said Bekalc!

Edit
I love Caroline, and I hope she wins, but that's highly unlikely. As her fan, though, I will stick with these predictions:

1. Caroline Z
2. Yu-Na Kim
3. Fumie Suguri

and btw,
sometimes repetition is necessary in getting a particular point across to the reader

I enjoy his/her posts as well. H/s comes across as a knowledgeable person with certain degree of objectivity. I'm just saying that it's not necessary to swoop in and say "actually...it's wrong" whenever someone says "so and so will win!" I know this forum is open for free speech and heated debate, but everyone is entitled to believe that his/her favorite skater is the best IMO. Also, I doubt that anyone can be completely objective.

Back to the original theme of this thread, other than P/T winning pair, only thing I can bet is that Lambiel, Kim, B/A will medal. In the ladies division, I am kind of concerned for Yuna and Alissa because they have not performed yet this season unlike other ladies, but I will have faith!

 

[bekalc]

I enjoy his/her posts as well. H/s comes across as a knowledgeable person with certain degree of objectivity. I'm just saying that it's not necessary to swoop in and say "actually...it's wrong" whenever someone says "so and so will win!" I know this forum is open for free speech and heated debate, but everyone is entitled to believe that his/her favorite skater is the best IMO. Also, I doubt that anyone can be completely objective.

Back to the original theme of this thread, other than P/T winning pair, only thing I can bet is that Lambiel, Kim, B/A will medal. In the ladies division, I am kind of concerned for Yuna and Alissa because they have not performed yet this season unlike other ladies, but I will have faith!

That's true, I'm not completely objective.. Yu-na's my favorite skater, but that could change. But really I'm trying to be because well I fear that if I'm not objective and don't try to enjoy other skaters, that I'll just end up disappointed and not enjoying the sport so much.

For example in Nagano Olympics I was a huge Kwan fan, and couldn't watch Tara's performances. Tara winning was really upsetting to me. Years later things thawed and I could appreciate Tara for who she was, and even enjoy her performances. Now, I truly don't want that kind of experience again.. Where it takes me 8 years to appreciate a great performance..

But I am seeing my hypocristy of getting mad at Sluts fan and then doing the same thing. And of course everyone is entitled to have their favorite skater. We will see who wins in the end.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Well, it's a small but very difficult-to-acheive detail. You do need certain amount of ballet training to acheive a proper turnout. After all, Kwan never had a "classic" layback position, did she? And it's probably more difficult to maintain a speed in classic position than in so-called "ugly" position unless you are Zhang or Cohen. So I guess more skaters elect to do ugly position to get higher level of layback spin. For example, Arakawa could do classical layback position, but she elected to do otherwise many times.

But Kwan never showed a club foot or a knocked kneed position either.

One doesn't need to study ballet. One can just do the barre exercises for turnout. And you get barre exercises in jazz, folk, tap, spanish dancing, too. Sasha got her doing acrobatics for gymnastics.

Joe

 

[mizu_iro]

Out of the Asian Armada, Miki used to have a rather nice position on her laybacks- Uncle DIck complimented her layback in the SP at 2004 Worlds. The turnout isn't quite as nice anymore, but it's still not unpleasant.

As far as this event goes, I'd say that Yu-Na has at least a one-fall/pop advantage for the gold, unless Carolina goes completely clean...has that ever happened before? Caroline is incredibly gifted for her age in terms of polish and flexibility, but even if the jumps aren't downgraded, the flutzes and bad technique will certainly result in bad GOE's and the judges aren't going to give her higher PCS than the reigning world bronze medalist.

 

[krenseby]

Men

Ladies
Kim
Kostner or Suguri
Zhang

I honestly doubt that Kostner can beat Zhang. Not unless the judges cheat by downgrading most of Zhang's jumps.

 

[chuckm]

I honestly doubt that Kostner can beat Zhang. Not unless the judges cheat by downgrading most of Zhang's jumps.

The JUDGES don't downgrade jumps. The CALLER (technical specialist) does.

Every once in awhile, Kostner turns in a very good FS. If she does this at CoC, she could beat Zhang, because Zhang won't get the kind of PCS scores that Kostner does.

7.43 6.75 7.29 7.14 7.36 Kostner, Worlds 2007 SP
7.43 6.86 7.04 7.21 7.25 Kostner, Worlds 2007 FS

7.25 6.71 7.18 7.11 7.21 Kostner, Euros 2007 SP
7.29 6.68 7.18 7.11 7.18 Kostner, Euros 2007 FS


6.80 5.95 6.75 6.60 6.75 Zhang, Skate America SP
6.55 6.00 6.50 6.70 6.60 Zhang, Skate America FS


6.32 5.86 6.21 6.11 6.18 Zhang, Jr Worlds 2007 SP
6.21 5.71 6.32 6.04 6.00 Zhang, Jr Worlds 2007 FS

Zhang got a slight boost to her scores when she moved up to the GP, but not nearly enough to catch up to Kostner. There's a 0.4-0.7 point difference in their scores, and that gives Kostner a cushion.

 

[bekalc]

I honestly doubt that Kostner can beat Zhang. Not unless the judges cheat by downgrading most of Zhang's jumps.

If Kostner went clean, she would most certainly beat Zhang, (look at her huge short program score at Worlds) Kostner's speed/command of the ice and jumps are fab... But Kostner going clean? :disapp: She's basically a European version of Sandhu. Sadly, talent wise, Kostner's up there with the best, but for whatever reason she's not a competition skater at all. Kostner could win the competition or place last, it's that bad. I wish she'd get some new coaching. From what I understand Carolina is a fab practice skater, and she seems like really the sweetiest girl. But for whatever reasons nerves etc, she just can't bring what she does on the practice ice unto the competive ice...:

 

[Fozzie Bear]

To be fair, this is Yu-Na's fourth year of international competition...At the same age, Yu-Na had not accomplished as much.

I understand that it would be difficult to compare their relative accomplishments at different ages, but I wasn't addressing that. I was talking about how they would compare now, in this competition. I was just surprised that some said that Caroline is superior and would/should beat Yu-Na. We can debate the subjective "artistry" all day, but as far as technical and presentation skills go, I don't know how anyone can objectively say that Zhang trumps Kim. :scratch:

I honestly doubt that Kostner can beat Zhang. Not unless the judges cheat by downgrading most of Zhang's jumps.

If you're alluding to Skate America, I don't see how that was cheating.

Zhang v. Kostner can go either way, depending on which Kostner shows up, Worlds SP Kostner or Worlds LP Kostner.

 

[Wrlmy]

I, too, think the result of Zhang vs Kostner will depend on Kostner's skate. Kostner is just like Czisny, only with superior jumps. As for few lunatic fans, just help your favorite skaters go skate without any burden, and stop creating non-existent excuses for them. Most elite skaters have what it takes to win. Sure, some are more gifted than the others, but the result will most likely depend on how they skate and present themselves. So, if you want your favorite skater to win, stop making up bogus theories or trivializing other skaters' skills, and wish for your favorite to have a skate of life.
Anyway, we will have ladies sp result within two days. Apparently, some posters will have to eat their own words!

 

[cosmos]

I love Caroline, and I hope she wins, but that's highly unlikely. As her fan, though, I will stick with these predictions:

1. Caroline Z
2. Yu-Na Kim
3. Fumie Suguri

Fair enough!

 

[bekalc]

Yu-Na didn't have the pressure of going against Mao in the 2005/2006 JGP. She had NO competition in that JGP season at all, because Mao had moved up to the GP.

Yes, there is competition in the US, but Caroline was not exactly a star at an early age. Caroline never won a Novice or Intermediate title, and in her first try at the Junior level, she finished 8th because she was not rotating her triples. And if you saw some of the Nationals competitions in the US, particularly at the Junior and Senior levels, you wouldn't be impressed. At the recent Regional events, much of the skating was blah and the scores weren't great. There were very few standouts. Caroline had similar competition at the Junior level the first time around, and she finished only 3rd at her Sectional going into Nationals in 2006.

Yu-Na is naturally talented, and so is Caroline Zhang, but both have weaknesses. Yu-Na has back problems and that likely handicaps her in terms of flexibility and stamina, and Caroline has problems with her jumps.

But it is NOT fair to compare a 17 year-old with a 14 year-old. Yu-Na was 14 her first year in the JGP, and Caroline was only 13. That makes a difference, too.

But it is fair to compare a 17 year old Yu-na and a 14 year old Caroline, when Caroline and Yu-na are competiting against each other. I' m not saying that Yu-na will always be better than Caroline, I'm saying that right now for this coimpetition, Yu-na's better.

And honestly, if you don't want to be compared to the top Seniors/ don't skate against them. LOL! Your going to play with the big boys/play with the big boys. Otherwise don't.

As for the second year, well you mentioned how Caroline had more accomplishments than Yu-na, at her age, which would refer to Yu-na's first season on the Grand Prix, not her second. But if you want to compare her second year, Yu-na got something like 10 points higher a the JGPF then Zhang got/and also put higher scores than Zhang at Junior Worlds too.

And Yu-na did compete against Mao at Junior Worlds that year, and she went undefeated that season. Zhang was defeated at Nationals.

Sure Caroline wasn't doing that great necessarily, but losing and getting downgraded probably made her fix her jumps...If she had been skating for Korea, probably that would have been less likely to happen.. I wouldn't say that the competition is wonderful in the USA, but it's certainly better than the competition in Korea... Sometimes losing can be the absolute best thing that can happen to someone's skating, and one could argue that happened to Zhang..

 

[cosmos]

For example in Nagano Olympics I was a huge Kwan fan, and couldn't watch Tara's performances. Tara winning was really upsetting to me. Years later things thawed and I could appreciate Tara for who she was, and even enjoy her performances. Now, I truly don't want that kind of experience again.. Where it takes me 8 years to appreciate a great performance..

I understand your feeling. I think most do here.

 

[Mathman]

Anyway, we will have ladies sp result within two days. Apparently, some posters will have to eat their own words!

Bebe will medal! (Yum, yum.)

 

[slutskayafan21]

Bebe will medal! (Yum, yum.)

I dont think you will be right but I hope you are. :agree: You should get an award if you are right too, since you are probably the only one who will make that prediction.