- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
So for the Worlds Team you have: Meissner, Flatt (age ok?), Wagner. That sounds good to me. We don't know about Hacker yet. She got scores in Midwest much hgher than those in East and Pacific.
Joe
Predictions?
- Thread starter Mathman
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Joe
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
So what? It's not the end of the world. I am sure more sensible fans of US figure skating are thinking in terms of sending 3 skaters and teams each to 2009 World Championships which will include Mirai and Caroline who will be old enough to be eligible for 2009 Worlds or at least 2010 Olys and Worlds.
The US will offer the best Ladies it has for its World Team in 2008. Hopefully they will all be part of the Top 10 finishers. If the Ladies team gets sufficient points it will send yet a better team in 2009.
I don't foresee that falling apart catastrophe nor do I believe the world is going to laugh at the US's Ladies.
I think Ashley, Kimmie and Flatt (I believe she is of age) would make a good team for the needed points.
Joe
Adam Rippon is competing as a junior again this year.
Joe, it's been stated here several times now
that Rachael Flatt is too young for Four Continents and Worlds this season -- she didn't turn 15 until AFTER the July 1, 2007 ISU deadline. Flatt (and Zhang and Nagasu) will all be old enough for ISU senior championships in the 2008-09 season.
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- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Adam Rippon is competing as a junior again this year.
Joe, it's been stated here several times now
thanks Sylvia - I should have known that but I thought Rachael's birthday prevented something earlier. OK, I got it now.
Joe
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2004
Kimmie
Caroline
Ashley
Alyssa
Evan
Johnny
Stephen
I/B
N/L
M/B
B/A
G/P
D/W
Caroline
Ashley
Alyssa
Evan
Johnny
Stephen
I/B
N/L
M/B
B/A
G/P
D/W
- Joined
- Mar 3, 2007
LADIES
1. Caroline
2. Kimmie
3. Ashley
4. Mirai
MEN
1. Evan Lysacek
2. Johnny Weir
3. Tommy Steenberg
4. Stephen Carriere
1. Caroline
2. Kimmie
3. Ashley
4. Mirai
MEN
1. Evan Lysacek
2. Johnny Weir
3. Tommy Steenberg
4. Stephen Carriere
After a bit of research into detailed protocols, I'm going to shuffle my predictions (i.e. moving Emily from 6th to in front of Rachael and Ashley, and adding Alissa and Bebe).
And just for fun, I'll also put some numbers on my predictions (SP/LP):
1. Caroline Zhang (62/122)
2. Kimmie Meissner (63/115)
3. Mirai Nagasu (59/110)
4. Emily Hughes (59/106)
5. Rachael Flatt (53/109)
6. Ashley Wagner (52/108)
7. Alissa Ciszny (60/99)
8. Bebe Liang (61/96)
In other words, I think the veteran seniors will dominate the short, where the youngsters will have lower PCS and none other than Caroline have had their 3-3 ratified in the SP. If Rachael finally lands a clean 3-3 in the SP (she's had many 3/3's ratified in her LP's), then she could gain about 4 points and move ahead of Emily. The lack of clean jumps among the veterans (aside from Kimmie) in the LP means that not even the PCS can save them.
I expect Kimmie to lead after the short, followed by Caroline, followed by Bebe (who always does well in the SP at National's), then Alissa (who skated a great SP at NHK). I expect Kimmie to storm back (from her GP season) and land all her triples (but not managing to fix the toe-axeling or under-rotation on the 3T as the back end of her combos). That means in the LP, she will trail Caroline, who should win even with the lower PCS'. With her solid 3-3 and high levels and GOES on the spins and spirals, I think Caroline has a 1-fall cushion over Kimmie without the 3-3 or 2-3. I think (and hope) that Mirai will have resolved her under-rotation problems in the second part of her LP, and achieve a personal best. I think Emily will continue to fall or under-rotate her 3Lz and 3F -- National's being right around final exams time at Harvard might make her skate even worse than my predictions. Rachael (slow) and Ashley (awkward transitions) both still garner low PCS and can have really off days with their spins. They're both great jumpers, but both have had trouble having their 3-3 ratified in the SP. But I do expect both of them to wow the crowd with their excellent jumps in the LP and achieve PB's.
So the podium will be Caroline, Kimmie, Mirai, and the Worlds team will be Kimmie, Emily, and Ashley (though it's a close one between her and Alissa, it all depends on Alissa's nerves).
Now let's see how wrong I turn out to be!
(I reserve the right to change my predictions as National's draws closer.)
And just for fun, I'll also put some numbers on my predictions (SP/LP):
1. Caroline Zhang (62/122)
2. Kimmie Meissner (63/115)
3. Mirai Nagasu (59/110)
4. Emily Hughes (59/106)
5. Rachael Flatt (53/109)
6. Ashley Wagner (52/108)
7. Alissa Ciszny (60/99)
8. Bebe Liang (61/96)
In other words, I think the veteran seniors will dominate the short, where the youngsters will have lower PCS and none other than Caroline have had their 3-3 ratified in the SP. If Rachael finally lands a clean 3-3 in the SP (she's had many 3/3's ratified in her LP's), then she could gain about 4 points and move ahead of Emily. The lack of clean jumps among the veterans (aside from Kimmie) in the LP means that not even the PCS can save them.
I expect Kimmie to lead after the short, followed by Caroline, followed by Bebe (who always does well in the SP at National's), then Alissa (who skated a great SP at NHK). I expect Kimmie to storm back (from her GP season) and land all her triples (but not managing to fix the toe-axeling or under-rotation on the 3T as the back end of her combos). That means in the LP, she will trail Caroline, who should win even with the lower PCS'. With her solid 3-3 and high levels and GOES on the spins and spirals, I think Caroline has a 1-fall cushion over Kimmie without the 3-3 or 2-3. I think (and hope) that Mirai will have resolved her under-rotation problems in the second part of her LP, and achieve a personal best. I think Emily will continue to fall or under-rotate her 3Lz and 3F -- National's being right around final exams time at Harvard might make her skate even worse than my predictions. Rachael (slow) and Ashley (awkward transitions) both still garner low PCS and can have really off days with their spins. They're both great jumpers, but both have had trouble having their 3-3 ratified in the SP. But I do expect both of them to wow the crowd with their excellent jumps in the LP and achieve PB's.
So the podium will be Caroline, Kimmie, Mirai, and the Worlds team will be Kimmie, Emily, and Ashley (though it's a close one between her and Alissa, it all depends on Alissa's nerves).
Now let's see how wrong I turn out to be!
(I reserve the right to change my predictions as National's draws closer.)
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I have no predictions, the only thing i am sure of is kimmie going to worlds
As far as podium for Kimmie it depends on how she skates. If she skates like she did at Skate America the title is hers, however if she skates like she did at the Grand Prix final it is up for grabs. as far as the medals for the women it can be anyone from Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu, Ashley Wagner, Rachel Flatt, Emily Hughes, Alissa Czisny, Beatrisa Liang, even Chrissy Hughes.
For me the women are a free for all.
Even if Kimmie doesn't medal the US will name her to the world team because only the national champion is automatic unless it is illegible to go. than the US Figure skating committe decides.
The men should be for 1 and 2 either Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir with the 3 spot open but mainly Stephen Carriere and Jeremy Abbott,
The pairs I have Rockne/Brubaker, Inoue & Baldwin, Castillo & Osklowski, Naomi Nari Nam & Theo Leftheris and Vise and Trent battling out for the medals.
The dance is 1) Belbin & Agosto.
2) Davis & White or Gregory & Petkuhov
with 3 a possibility for Samuelson & Bates.
As far as podium for Kimmie it depends on how she skates. If she skates like she did at Skate America the title is hers, however if she skates like she did at the Grand Prix final it is up for grabs. as far as the medals for the women it can be anyone from Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu, Ashley Wagner, Rachel Flatt, Emily Hughes, Alissa Czisny, Beatrisa Liang, even Chrissy Hughes.
For me the women are a free for all.
Even if Kimmie doesn't medal the US will name her to the world team because only the national champion is automatic unless it is illegible to go. than the US Figure skating committe decides.
The men should be for 1 and 2 either Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir with the 3 spot open but mainly Stephen Carriere and Jeremy Abbott,
The pairs I have Rockne/Brubaker, Inoue & Baldwin, Castillo & Osklowski, Naomi Nari Nam & Theo Leftheris and Vise and Trent battling out for the medals.
The dance is 1) Belbin & Agosto.
2) Davis & White or Gregory & Petkuhov
with 3 a possibility for Samuelson & Bates.
If Caroline lands a clean 3-3, then all else being equal, she would've scored 6 points higher in the SP at SA, and 8 points higher in the LP. Kimmie only won by 10 points at SA. Therefore if she wants to beat Caroline, she needs to skate better than at SA (in particular she really needs to fully rotate the 3/3 and the 2A-3T; her 3T's are more cheated this year than ever, she won't get away with full credit if she goes 1/2 turn short as she has all season), especially as Caroline has also improved on her other jumps since SA, and also upped the levels of spins and spirals.
If Kimmie doesn't medal, she will no longer BE the National Champion.
It's automatic for the National Champion of the current year (unless that turns out to be an age-ineligible skater).
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
I don't really understand the continual blast that Rachael underrotates her 3x3s. She's not the only one according to judges of Caroline.
Rachael did last season at US Nats. She may have during this year's GPs. But is it a done deal that she will underrotate this year?
Joe
Rachael did last season at US Nats. She may have during this year's GPs. But is it a done deal that she will underrotate this year?
Joe
Rachael did the 3/3 in her SP only at the JGPF, and she got dinged for underrotating the toe. But she did the 3/3 in all 3 JGP FSs, and got credit for it at JGP AUT and the JGPF. In Germany, she got urs on both lutzes and one flip as well as on the second jump in the combo. But I somehow have the feeling that the caller was being overly picky at that competition (local star Sarah Hecken, who won the competition, had only 3S, 3T and 2A in her FS).
Didn't Rachael try the 3/3 at a club competition in the summer? Liberty Open? I remember Ashley beat her in the SP (and then Rachael won the long and the competition).
I don't think it's a done deal. But... she just doesn't seem like an especially strong SP skater. Her PB in the SP is only 52, and that includes some clean SP's when she didn't attempt the 3/3. She also under-rotated her 3/3 in the SP in last year's National's. At the Vienna JGP she was behind Kristine Musademba in the SP -- I guess she didn't attempt the 3/3 there.
I don't think it's a done deal. But... she just doesn't seem like an especially strong SP skater. Her PB in the SP is only 52, and that includes some clean SP's when she didn't attempt the 3/3. She also under-rotated her 3/3 in the SP in last year's National's. At the Vienna JGP she was behind Kristine Musademba in the SP -- I guess she didn't attempt the 3/3 there.
She did only a 3/2 in the SPs at AUT and GER. She still sometimes got -GOE, probably because of the high kick into the jump.
She was behind Musademba in the SP because Musademba had two level4 spins and one level3, while Rachael's were one level3 and two level2. She seems to have the most trouble with her flying sitspin. By the JGPF, she had gotten he layback up to a level3 and her combo spin to a level4, but the FSS was still only a level2. At least she's been working on her spins.
Interesting that she got an edge deduction on her lutz combo in the SP at the JGPF. That's the first time in all 3 competitions that she was hit for flutzing (and ur). She got no edge calls in the JGPF FS on her two lutzes.
She was behind Musademba in the SP because Musademba had two level4 spins and one level3, while Rachael's were one level3 and two level2. She seems to have the most trouble with her flying sitspin. By the JGPF, she had gotten he layback up to a level3 and her combo spin to a level4, but the FSS was still only a level2. At least she's been working on her spins.
Interesting that she got an edge deduction on her lutz combo in the SP at the JGPF. That's the first time in all 3 competitions that she was hit for flutzing (and ur). She got no edge calls in the JGPF FS on her two lutzes.
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I wish there were more videos of the JGP performances. :no: I would love to see Rachael's and Mirai's skates.
I feel like tech calling at the junior level is more variable than at the senior level, but junior skaters are also more variable. They may flutz in one comp and not another, land a jump superbly in one and not in other.
Before this theory about unfair tech calling at Germany gets too widely spread, it's worth noting that the 3-3 combo, 3Lz, and 3F Rachael got called UR also received very negative GOE's across the panel of judges. Judges don't find out until later whether the tech panel ratified a jump or not, so I think this is good independent evidence that quite a few judges also saw the UR, not just the tech panel.
Also, there's actually a home video of Rachael's LP in Germany:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=898OnWAHdXQ
The quality is not great... The jumps looked a little off, she didn't seem to skate with a lot of energy. The 3T in the 3-3 definitely looked UR, not sure about the 3Lz. I do think, though, that both her posture and musicality have improved from last season. And the first part of that last combination spin had great speed and positions.
I feel like tech calling at the junior level is more variable than at the senior level, but junior skaters are also more variable. They may flutz in one comp and not another, land a jump superbly in one and not in other.
Before this theory about unfair tech calling at Germany gets too widely spread, it's worth noting that the 3-3 combo, 3Lz, and 3F Rachael got called UR also received very negative GOE's across the panel of judges. Judges don't find out until later whether the tech panel ratified a jump or not, so I think this is good independent evidence that quite a few judges also saw the UR, not just the tech panel.
Also, there's actually a home video of Rachael's LP in Germany:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=898OnWAHdXQ
The quality is not great... The jumps looked a little off, she didn't seem to skate with a lot of energy. The 3T in the 3-3 definitely looked UR, not sure about the 3Lz. I do think, though, that both her posture and musicality have improved from last season. And the first part of that last combination spin had great speed and positions.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
I do wish they would post errors on the screeen for the public. It would be in line with other sports. The secrecy in figure skating is too much.
Joe
My understanding is that the judges are informed of wrong edge calls, underrotations, and elements that are split (e.g., a planned combination being called as two jumps or two spins because of problems between the separate parts), but not the levels of the non-jump elements.
I'm not sure whether they're informed of elements that end up not counting as elements at all. Sometimes it's obvious (axel popped to waltz jump); sometimes it's not (sitspin that never quite gets low enough to count as a basic sit position, or single axel that's underrotated enough to be downgraded).
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