- Joined
- Aug 25, 2017
I’m going to write down my predictions for the last two events (1st-4th), and based on those, put down who I think will be the final qualifers and alternates.
IDF:
I think Zagitova will win gold, with Osmond close behind. I just can’t see anyone beating them as long as they don’t have major meltdowns. 3rd and 4th will likely be between Sotskova and Mihara.
SA:
Tsurskaya is looking strong and consistent, so I think she’ll win here. 2nd-4th will likely be between Wagner, Chen, Sakamoto, Daleman, and Miyahara.
Let’s assume that this is exactly what happens. Medvedeva, Zagitova, Osmond, and Kostner are all in for sure.
First off - IDF. Sotskova in 3rd would put her in a scoring tiebreaker with Higuchi. Sotskova needs a huge 220+ score to win this tiebreaker, which is highly unlikely, so she’ll probably go behind Higuchi. If Mihara places anywhere lower than 3rd then she’s out for sure. If she places 2nd or 3rd, she’ll likely be an alternate.
Assuming all of the above has happened in France, let’s move on to USA. A win for Tsurskaya will put her into the final for sure. A silver for Ashley will put her into a scoring tiebreaker with both Higuchi and Sotskova, but since Ashley needs an enormous 230+ score to win it, it’s safe to say that the chances of it happening are extremely slim. Chen, Daleman, Sakamoto, and Miyahara can no longer qualify no matter how high they place. If either Sakamoto or Miyahara place 2nd, then they may be in the list of alternates.
So if this all happened, then the qualifers would be:
1. Medvedeva (15+15=30)
2. Zagitova (15+15=30)
3. Osmond (15+13=28)
4. Tsurskaya (11+15=26)
5. Kostner (13+13=26)
6. Higuchi (11+13=24)
Sotskova would be an alternate for sure. The remaining 2 alternates would be any of the other skaters I mentioned above who have not qualified.
This is a complicated process, but kinda fun to think about.
Why do Ashley and Maria need different scores? Wouldn't they both need 212+ since that's the highest she got at a GP? And then whichever of them had the highest, if both were to be higher than 212 (highly unlikely, but hypothetical) would go to the GPF? And the other two would be two of the alternates?