2026 Olympics Team Event speculation

[SubRosa]

Now that the results of Grand Prix final are in, I'm thinking ahead to the Olympic Team Event with several questions in mind:

Which countries will qualify for the final?

Which countries will medal?

How will countries with multiple competitors split the SP/FS and or RD/FD duties?

How will countries with medal hopes in Dance and Men (as the events directly after the Team Event) strategize, so as not to wear out their best medal prospects in the individual events?

Plenty of unknowns yet at this point, as many countries haven't held their Nationals yet, but thought it would be fun to speculate.

Given GPF results, I now think France (due to strong Dance and Men) can edge Canada as the fifth country in the final.

Italy (strong Men and Pairs) are strong prospects for a medal, maybe even gold if they field only their top man and pair in both SP/FS.

For reference:

Schedule​

Feb 6: Team Event (Rhythm Dance, Pairs' Short Program, and Women's Short Program)
Feb 7: Team event (Men's Short Program, Free Dance)
Feb 8: Team event (Pairs' Free Skate, Women's Free Skate, Men's Free Skate)
Feb 9: Rhythm Dance
Feb 10: Men's Short Program
Feb 11: Free Dance
Feb 13: Men's Free Skate
Feb 15: Pairs' Short Program
Feb 16: Pairs' Free Skate
Feb 17: Women's Short Program
Feb 19: Women's Free Skate
Feb 21: Exhibition gala

 

[saine]

Given GPF results, I now think France (due to strong Dance and Men) can edge Canada as the fifth country in the final.

With France for Ice Dance, it may end up being Lopareva/Brissaud in the Team Event over Fournier Beaudry/Cizeron. They mentioned it at Warsaw Cup as the reason for competing there with a short turnaround from Skate America:

 

[4everchan]

France has no shot at a medal so they will indeed rest FBC.

Medals
USA
Japan
Italy

Canada and Georgia in the finals.

 

[Mathman]

Italy (strong Men and Pairs) are strong prospects for a medal, maybe even gold if they field only their top man and pair in both SP/FS.

I'm looking for Gutmann to make a contribution, too.

 

[TontoK]

I think a lot of people are betting on USA getting gold, and it's probably not a terrible bet.... but I don't think Japan is out of it by any means.

We'll know a lot more after the Pairs Short Program, which is where I think things can get interesting.

 

[Jeanie19]

France has no shot at a medal so they will indeed rest FBC.

Medals
USA
Japan
Italy

Canada and Georgia in the finals.

Will France send Adam or Kevin?

 

[saine]

I/m looking for Gutmann to make a contribution, too.

I can see Jaws having a moment in the Team event, plus she's been solid most of the season.

 

[Mathman]

I do think that Italy will jump on the opportunity to try for a team medal in their home country and send their best team. That could be a source of pride for the entire Italian skating program.

Japan has a lot of options in men's and ladies' because their #2s are just as as good as their #1s..

 

[rabidline]

Will France send Adam or Kevin?

I think France will follow the wishes of their top man which is Adam. So if Adam wants to do the SP (not a bad idea, to warm up before the individual event) I think he'll get it, but if he wants to skip the team event to focus on the individual event, France will send Kevin, who I think won't decline the opportunity.

 

[4everchan]

Only eligible NOCs are listed. (taken from WIKI)

Rank​	Team​	Men's​	Women's​	Pairs​	Ice dance​	2025–26​	Total​
1	United States​	1200	1200	709	1200	2760	7069
2	Japan​	972	1080	1200	402	2373	6027
3	Italy​	465	339	972	875	1955	4606
4	Canada​	305	418	787	1080	1641	4231
5	Georgia​	517	756	875	465	1493	4106
6	France​	875	275	362	574	1743	3829
7	Great Britain​	113	131	377	972	1078	2671
8	South Korea​	638	517	0	200	816	2171
9	China​	200	237	328	325	1042	2132
10	Poland​	118	162	305	0	191	776

In white (no green checkmark) : Country didn't qualify that entry. Invitations will be made to complete the teams (there is a quota however)
South Korea doesn't have a pairs team.
France's main contenders in pairs are injured. They had two teams competing at Golden Spin but perhaps only one with citizenship ?
There is a big gap between team number 1-2 and team, 3-6... and then also a bit gap with the 6th team and the rest of the lower teams.

The deal maker/breaker for Canada and Italy will be singles. USA is strong all around, with a certain weakness in pairs but that weakness is less problematic because teams 6 to 10, maybe except China, will not touch the USA anyway. Pairs is interesting because two teams from the top six will be missing : Germany and Hungary. It means that depending on how well Italy, Canada and Georgia do compared to one another will be crucial here. For instance, if a Georgia came in between Italy and Canada, Italy wouldn't even get a point advantage over Canada but two.

Dance : it will depend on on whether or not FBC want another shot at their RD. They probably need it but do they want it ? Considering that they will most likely not medal nor qualify for the top 5, they certainly could decide to forego the team event. I don't think Cizeron took part in 2022 right ? This is also crucial for Italy and Canada with spoilers being Great Britain.

Singles are very changing but I expect strong participants from most nations. It will be do or die for Canada and Italy.. but also Georgians who are able of very strong but also very weak results in that department.

As we all know, the SP will decide pretty much everything as in the LP teams cannot lose/gain as much advantage with 6 points assured for the lowest placed team in each discipline. I wish that points were truly doubled for the LP (10, 8, 6, 4, 2 instead of 10, 9, 8, 7 , 6)

With National selections coming in the next few weeks or so, things will get clearer. However, anything can happen. Keegan Messing being stranded due to a Covid positive test denied Canada of a chance to do better last time around.. I hope there won't be anything like that for any team.

 

[TontoK]

Let's assume that there are considerations that preclude a team putting their #1 out in both segments - whether that be "saving" a skater's endurance for the individual event or sharing the medals. Whatever reason, you pick one.

Examining the MOST LIKELY team make-ups at this point, who do we think - and I am absolutely conceding that we cannot know that at this point - this is just for fun - what teams split which disciplines?

Here's my entry in the game for USA.

USA Men: Split. Ilia short, Jason long
USA Women: Split. Alysa short, Amber long
USA Pairs: Whoever makes it out of selection with no citizenship issues skates both (my guess is Ellie and Danny).
USA Dance: Chock and Bates skate both.

I think Ilia will only want to do one segment, and I think that USFSA will give Jason a chance at Olympic gold. I don't think it really matters with the women - their placements should be very similar. That leaves the pairs and dance to skate both, and they will absolutely go with Chock and Bates to put as much distance between USA and Japan in this discipline as possible.

 

[TontoK]

My guess for Team Japan:

Japan Men: Split. Yuma short, Shun long.
Japan Women: Split. Kaori short, Mone long.
Japan Pairs: R/R skate both.
Japan Dance: I don't even know their names skate both.

I think they'll split the men and women because their placements would likely be very similar. R/R have to skate both if they hope to win - they need as much gap as possible with the USA pairs, and I don't think the Japan #2 can do that. The dance team has to skate both.

 

[SmileHappy34]

For me i am waiting till nationals or select skaters going.
Usa might have a hard time in men and dance if ilia or chock and bates don't do team.
Italy does with Lara, Daniel, Conti, Macintosh, Guignard, Fabri,

japan Mone or Ami, Shun, Maria and Kihara, dance
Canada with Googlev or Sadovsky, Schazas, Gillespie and Poirer

France Lopraud and Brissaud or S, Cameron, schild, kovalev


Usa alysa, amber, isabella, bradie
Men ? Jason
Pair kam oshea, howe, efimaov andvmitfronav but I don't think have citizenship

Dance v/k, c/p b/s all good but scores are lower than above mentioned teams

 

[4everchan]

Team Canada will be simple.

There is no real strategy for the SP

Whoever are the singles skaters sent will have to take part in the team event.
Dance : Piper and Paul will have to do the RD for sure.
Pairs : Deanna and Max will have to do the SP for sure.

Then, there will be strategy for the second day depending on the results of the first day

If Canada is still close to a medal, they will have to use their top skaters (Piper and Paul in Dance and Deanna and Max in pairs). However, I can see the possibility of subbing one or both entries if Canada can no longer grab a medal. Both entries may want to rest because they do have a fair chance of a podium in their individual events.

 

[TontoK]

My guess for Team Canada:

Canada men: Steven skates both
Canada Women: Sara Maude skates both
Canada Pairs: Max and Deanna skate both
Canada Dance: Paul and Piper skate both

No splits: The man and the woman will do what they can - and they can't split because only one entry (am I remembering that correctly?). I think Canada has a shot for a medal, and they're not going to risk it by putting a #2 out in either pairs or dance. And yes, my men's and women's picks are my predictions for their team.

 

[pearly]

Team Canada will be simple.

There is no real strategy for the SP

Whoever are the singles skaters sent will have to take part in the team event.
Dance : Piper and Paul will have to do the RD for sure.
Pairs : Deanna and Max will have to do the SP for sure.

Then, there will be strategy for the second day depending on the results of the first day

If Canada is still close to a medal, they will have to use their top skaters (Piper and Paul in Dance and Deanna and Max in pairs). However, I can see the possibility of subbing one or both entries if Canada can no longer grab a medal. Both entries may want to rest because they do have a fair chance of a podium in their individual events.

I am not sure, unless something has changed since 2018. I remember listening to a team member from Canada - maybe Meagan Duhamel - discuss why they only split one discipline and by doing that, left Weaver and Poje off the team. They had to enter the skaters for the team event in advance, therefore effectively leaving teams without the opportunity to make last minute changes based on the results of the short program.

 

[pearly]

Let's assume that there are considerations that preclude a team putting their #1 out in both segments - whether that be "saving" a skater's endurance for the individual event or sharing the medals. Whatever reason, you pick one.

Examining the MOST LIKELY team make-ups at this point, who do we think - and I am absolutely conceding that we cannot know that at this point - this is just for fun - what teams split which disciplines?

Here's my entry in the game for USA.

USA Men: Split. Ilia short, Jason long
USA Women: Split. Alysa short, Amber long
USA Pairs: Whoever makes it out of selection with no citizenship issues skates both (my guess is Ellie and Danny).
USA Dance: Chock and Bates skate both.

I think Ilia will only want to do one segment, and I think that USFSA will give Jason a chance at Olympic gold. I don't think it really matters with the women - their placements should be very similar. That leaves the pairs and dance to skate both, and they will absolutely go with Chock and Bates to put as much distance between USA and Japan in this discipline as possible.

I think Chock and Bates will be asked about their preferences and the schedule may come into play here:

Feb 7 Team event MF, FD
Feb 9 Individual RD
Feb 10 Individual MS
Feb 11 Individual FD
Feb 13 Individual MF

If Chock and Bates skate both, that is four competitive programs at the Olympics in five days. I wonder if they choose to only do RD and count on having enough advantage to send the second team to do the free.

 

[TontoK]

I think Chock and Bates will be asked about their preferences and the schedule may come into play here:

Feb 7 Team event MF, FD
Feb 9 Individual RD
Feb 10 Individual MS
Feb 11 Individual FD
Feb 13 Individual MF

If Chock and Bates skate both, that is four competitive programs at the Olympics in five days. I wonder if they choose to only do RD and count on having enough advantage to send the second team to do the free.

If they split dance, then that means either one woman or one man will have to skate both. I don't see Ilia or USFSA wanting him to do both - of the USA Gold Medal possibilities, his is far the strongest IMO. And both women mentioned have medal chances.... so, I don't know.

 

[pearly]

If they split dance, then that means either one woman or one man will have to skate both. I don't see Ilia or USFSA wanting him to do both - of the USA Gold Medal possibilities, his is far the strongest IMO. And both women mentioned have medal chances.... so, I don't know.

YEs, I don't see Ilia doing both either considering the Men's event is so close. But it's Ilia and he is insane, so Also, I do see the USFS pushing for Jason to get a chance. I agree that ideally, dance would not get split.

Too bad the first individual event could not get pushed by one day since there is no figure skating at all on Feb 12, but I suppose short track dictated that.

 

[TontoK]

YEs, I don't see Ilia doing both either considering the Men's event is so close. But it's Ilia and he is insane, so Also, I do see the USFS pushing for Jason to get a chance. I agree that ideally, dance would not get split.

Too bad the first individual event could not get pushed by one day since there is no figure skating at all on Feb 12, but I suppose short track dictated that.

LOL.

You know, I've often wondered about the "endurance" argument. These skaters do run-throughs every day in hours-long practices, and they're in phenomenal shape -world class athletes. I bet skating the program is actually less exhausting than all the pre-skating frippery - hair and makeup, costume tweaks, all that stuff. I would HATE all that, and the mental energy involved in not killing someone must be immense. I bet it would be a lot easier if they could just roll out of bed, grab a light breakfast, shuttle to the rink, and skate their programs after stretching and a short warmup.