Sasha Cohen at a crossroads this year

[ChiSk8Fan]

I believe this year's World Championships is where Sasha Cohen is at a huge crossroad in her career. She must do well and place in the top 3 to continue down the developmental road to Champion skater to Torino as one of the favorites for Gold, eventually developing enough in her skating to be Olympic Champion OR will a falter to a top 6 finish lead to a downslide into the Olympic year, a non-podium finish at Torino and a typical pro career touring?

I do think the results for her, and her performance, is indeed pivotal at this point. It is a HUGE competition for her in the overall scheme of things.

The pressure has got to be enormous.

My prediction if things continue as they have been is the road to becoming the next Nicole Bobek on the tours. Famous to skating fans, lovely to watch and see perform, but not influencial in the development of figure skating as a sport, and not a Champion skater.

Sasha is an impressive skater, but not an important skater, in the history of the sport, sort of like artists, who can be great artists, but not important in art history a la Picasso, Van Gogh, Rembrandt, etc. She will never be as important to figure skating as Sonja, Elaine, Peggy, Dorothy, Michelle, Katarina, Dick or Midori, for example.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Sasha is one of those skater's who is like the little girl who had a little curl right in the middle of her forehead. (Do I have that right?)

I haven't given up on her. There's just too much talent. True, it has to be tamed but it does hit once in a while and it just might in Moscow.

Joe

 

[Saundy]

To me it seems (and these are only my opinions) to me that Sasha has seemed to pay more attention to touring. And there's nothing wrong with it if you can balance touring and training for amature events too. Michelle Kwan seems to be doing the same thing also, so it's not just Sasha. Maybe she (and this goes for Kwan too) will surprise us all at worlds, but if they end up not showing their full potential at Worlds, then I certainly will think that they are spending too much time touring and not enough time practicing.... Sasha just has so much potential and I think she has the goods to become the World Champ AND Olympic Champ too.

 

[CzarinaAnya]

She's not dumb, she's got a bagful of talent. If she is truly hungry for this medal, and I think she is, (she wouldn't have gone back to John Nicks if she wasn't). Hopefully, she'll be working on her concentration and jumps during this down time before World's.

 

[SailorGalaxia518]

Hey don't make fun of Cohen. That girl has potential........................................She sometimes doesn't want to show it.

If she can come between Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya whose rivalry will probably fire back up in Moscow, will be a great accomplishment

 

[R.D.]

Hey don't make fun of Cohen. That girl has potential........................................

Yeah, as much potential as I have... This talk of "potential" in Cohen's case is wearing out. For her, it's almost now or never. And with the type of season she's been having, I'll go with never for right now...And I also think she's gone by 2006 (or 2007 if Kwan leaves and she wants a shot at a National title. Then Kimmie will steal it from her )

 

[mzheng]

..And I also think she's gone by 2006 (or 2007 if Kwan leaves and she wants a shot at a National title. Then Kimmie will steal it from her )

She properbaly gone after 2006. But if Kwan leaves and she chose to stay, I don't think Kimmie will steal it from her yet. Kimmie's presentation has long way to go.

Kwan and Cohen (may be Bebe if she can be aired more often) are the only US ladys I enjoy to watch now. And they are the money trees for USFSA now.

 

[Mathman]

I think on the whole I disagree with the premise that Worlds is a make or break situation for Sasha. I can see her making just enough mistakes at Worlds to miss the podium, but still bouncing back next year. To me, Sasha's basic skating is strong enough that in any given performance she might get through it still on her feet and win.

Mathman

 

[mzheng]

I think on the whole I disagree with the premise that Worlds is a make or break situation for Sasha. I can see her making just enough mistakes at Worlds to miss the podium, but still bouncing back next year. To me, Sasha's basic skating is strong enough that in any given performance she might get through it still on her feet and win.

Mathman

Agree. Her basic skating skill now is miles ahead of when she was at SLC (based on what TT said. TT did wonder to her skating. But on the otherside Sasha my over worked herself last two seasons, thus cause this season's regroup). And the CoP would give her more breaks than any other top ladies (since she is the one kept falling in LP, and the falling gets punished more under 6.0 than CoP). As long as she take full advantage of the system, milk out the maximun points on non jump elements. She already has the ability to perform level 3 spins and spirals, by the time next season rolling around she would have the ability to pull off a level 3 footwork.

The only thing left for her to overcome is the mental toughness, falling once is OK (at least under CoP the way I see it). Just keep your performance level up.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think on the whole I disagree with the premise that Worlds is a make or break situation for Sasha. I can see her making just enough mistakes at Worlds to miss the podium, but still bouncing back next year. To me, Sasha's basic skating is strong enough that in any given performance she might get through it still on her feet and win.Mathman

If that happens, Sasha will be the dark horse to win the Olys. Not impossible.

Joe

 

[attyfan]

Both Sasha and Michelle were in 4th place in their second trips to Worlds; both got their first medal in their third trip to Worlds, and I give each skater one advantage point each. (1st trip to Worlds -- Michelle, 8th place; Sasha 4th place -- advantage point to Sasha; 3rd trip to Worlds -- first medal for both, Michelle with gold and Sasha with silver -- advantage point to Michelle.) Therefore, IMHO, Sasha might have a down year, just like Michelle did in 1997 -- and like 1997, it will not fatally destroy a career.

 

[bdreampixie]

attyfan, one thing you have to consider is the difference between MK and Sasha's ages in the comparison that you are making. I think Sasha is at a tough age right now. I don't know for everyone else, but 20 and 21 were very hard for me. I think it's generally a tough time, in which, you feel that you want to do things your own way, but you don't completely trust yourself yet. Whenever I see Sasha's face before a final Free Skate, she just looks defeated.

Most likely at Worlds, Sasha will be off the podium. I don't think that will affect her chances at the Olympics, though. She'll have as much of a chance to win as anyone else. If she's skating strong through the GPF, then I think we can expect a good showing for Sasha at Olys. Of course, though, the Olympics can do crazy things to people. I'm not sure why, but I think coming in 4th in 02 and being so close to medaling, can be a very negative thing for her, if she still has it in the back of her mind.

 

[hockeyfan228]

I don't see how being a multiple-time US silver medallist -- competing her whole career against the all-time National champion -- the reigning World silver medallist, GPF silver and gold medallist, and multiple-time winner of GP events is such a sorry record. Has Cohen ever come in less than fourth in a senior international competition?

Perhaps Cohen has the potential to do better, but the only other eligible woman with a better record at her age is Kwan. Slutskaya's had her ups and downs and a year of not competiting. Arakawa's just came into her own last year, with inconsistent results until that time. Suguri and Sokolova have been inconsistent as well. Sebestyen has had a hard time stringing together good performances and building on her successes. Kostner, a skater full of potential, hasn't medalled yet at Worlds or Europeans.

I don't take one injury-ridden year as doom and gloom for her. I agree that it's painful to watch her disappointment and confusion after she falters in competition, but that doesn't diminish what she's accomplished until now in a very competitive field.

The math is fairly simple: if she falls, she will lose a certain amount of points, some of which she can make back with high levels of difficult on other elements and higher GOEs. If the judges start deducting for flutzes, then she will lose points. How much she can regain will depend on her competition. By falling, she loses control of her "destiny" in 6.0 terms, but if any competition is anywhere as messy as Europeans, she can be as competitive as anyone, IMO, because her spins, spirals, and footwork passes are not only difficult, but they are immaculate as well.

 

[Hikaru]

I don't see how being a multiple-time US silver medallist -- competing her whole career against the all-time National champion -- the reigning World silver medallist, GPF silver and gold medallist, and multiple-time winner of GP events is such a sorry record. Has Cohen ever come in less than fourth in a senior international competition?

Perhaps Cohen has the potential to do better, but the only other eligible woman with a better record at her age is Kwan. Slutskaya's had her ups and downs and a year of not competiting. Arakawa's just came into her own last year, with inconsistent results until that time. Suguri and Sokolova have been inconsistent as well. Sebestyen has had a hard time stringing together good performances and building on her successes. Kostner, a skater full of potential, hasn't medalled yet at Worlds or Europeans.

I don't take one injury-ridden year as doom and gloom for her. I agree that it's painful to watch her disappointment and confusion after she falters in competition, but that doesn't diminish what she's accomplished until now in a very competitive field.

The math is fairly simple: if she falls, she will lose a certain amount of points, some of which she can make back with high levels of difficult on other elements and higher GOEs. If the judges start deducting for flutzes, then she will lose points. How much she can regain will depend on her competition. By falling, she loses control of her "destiny" in 6.0 terms, but if any competition is anywhere as messy as Europeans, she can be as competitive as anyone, IMO, because her spins, spirals, and footwork passes are not only difficult, but they are immaculate as well.

I agree :agree:

 

[brad640]

The math is fairly simple: if she falls, she will lose a certain amount of points, some of which she can make back with high levels of difficult on other elements and higher GOEs. If the judges start deducting for flutzes, then she will lose points. How much she can regain will depend on her competition. By falling, she loses control of her "destiny" in 6.0 terms, but if any competition is anywhere as messy as Europeans, she can be as competitive as anyone, IMO, because her spins, spirals, and footwork passes are not only difficult, but they are immaculate as well.

You are right, and I think Sasha is definitely in contention for a medal at wolrds. I thought she showed improvement in her interpretation at nationals, and her PCS should reflect that. As you say, she has maintained a high quality on all her non-jump elements, so she should be rewarded with high GoE.

The concern I have is that John Nicks has not been known to make the best coaching choices for Sasha. At SLC, she would have been better off not risking the 3z3t. Also, he allowed her to practice her quad, which was a waste of time and led to injury. She said in her journal that she has been working on a 3-3 and a "new jump." Maybe this is a good strategy to help her confidence, but I wonder if John Nicks really knows how to prepare her to compete under CoP.

 

[CzarinaAnya]

If I were John Nicks and Sasha had left me, For a while, I would be watching every competition, seeing what needs to be improved, and dying to correct it. I would be proud of her improvements, but you can count on it that John made a mental list of what he would like to work on with her, So, when he got her back, it was probably a , "Let's get right to work", mentality. I really hope that is the scenario! :yes:

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I really think there is too much writing about who between MK and SC will win the gold in Moscow. It's possible one of them will but the big favorite here is Irina or another surprise by Shizuka and just how well Rochette will hold up.

MK and SC are like apples and oranges Pick your choice.

Joe

 

[bdreampixie]

The math is fairly simple: if she falls, she will lose a certain amount of points, some of which she can make back with high levels of difficult on other elements and higher GOEs. If the judges start deducting for flutzes, then she will lose points. How much she can regain will depend on her competition. By falling, she loses control of her "destiny" in 6.0 terms, but if any competition is anywhere as messy as Europeans, she can be as competitive as anyone, IMO, because her spins, spirals, and footwork passes are not only difficult, but they are immaculate as well.

Her spins, spirals,and ftwk. thus far aren't any more difficult than any of the other elite ladies. She'll receive some good goe's for her spins, but right now all of her spins are L1. If I were a judge I wouldn't give plus points to her ftwk or spirals. Her spirals may have nice positions, but from what I saw at Nats, her spirals were slow, the pattern was shallow, her edges were not great, and the flow was mediocre. Really not what I would call immaculate. There's a lot more to a good spiral, than the position. The ftwk. had a nice pattern, but she was very slow on it and it wasn't flowing as well as it could, and again her edges aren't very deep when she does ftwk.

Last year while she was with TT, and with Robin, I was really noticing an improvement in her edges, speed and flow. But after seeing her at Nats, it was like all that she learned with TT and Robin was gone. It may just be that she's not as well conditioned as she was last season, and the injury really set her back more than I imagined.

 

[attyfan]

attyfan, one thing you have to consider is the difference between MK and Sasha's ages in the comparison that you are making. I think Sasha is at a tough age right now. I don't know for everyone else, but 20 and 21 were very hard for me. I think it's generally a tough time, in which, you feel that you want to do things your own way, but you don't completely trust yourself yet. Whenever I see Sasha's face before a final Free Skate, she just looks defeated.

Actually, I use the comparison based on trips to Worlds rather than chronological age because I believe it is more accurate. Michelle made her first trip to Worlds at the age of 13 (where she already had a Jr. World gold); Sasha could not match this because she couldn't go to Worlds in 2000 (too young and no medal at Jrs) and she missed a year because of injury. This is one reason why Michelle had 4 World titles and an Oly silver by the time she was 21, whereas Sasha hasn't even been to Worlds often enough to equal that record.

 

[hockeyfan228]

Her spins, spirals,and ftwk. thus far aren't any more difficult than any of the other elite ladies. She'll receive some good goe's for her spins, but right now all of her spins are L1. If I were a judge I wouldn't give plus points to her ftwk or spirals. Her spirals may have nice positions, but from what I saw at Nats, her spirals were slow, the pattern was shallow, her edges were not great, and the flow was mediocre. Really not what I would call immaculate. There's a lot more to a good spiral, than the position. The ftwk. had a nice pattern, but she was very slow on it and it wasn't flowing as well as it could, and again her edges aren't very deep when she does ftwk.

I didn't think the Ladies' LP's were worth saving, so I can't speak about the levels for Cohen's LP, although I do remember it being unusually slow for her in general. I think this was a sub-par performance for her, and that she will be back to form for Worlds, but only time will tell.

However, I did save the Ladies' SP tape, and I have to disagree with your conclusion. Cohen's levelled elements in the SP were:

Spiral Sequence: According to the level two guidelines, a spin must have three of four features: Sequence incorporates three or more spiral positions (which she did), one difficult variations [sic] of position (she did two: twisting the upper body affecting the main body core and balance, the 180 split and turn on one leg), spirals are skating [sic] forward and back (which she did), and use of both edges (which she did). Level three requires five features, including free leg in a total split position either sideway [sic] or forward, but holding with one arm (which she did), and unsupported spiral position with the free leg either sideways or forward (which she did). Her spiral sequence should qualify as L3.

Flying Camel Spin: To qualify for level two, which this same spin did last year, she need to include two of the following features: Spin performed in at least one difficult variation (which she did with her upper body and arm position), spin performed on both edges (which she did), landing on the same foot as take off (which she didn't), difficult variation of air or landing position (which she didn't) This spin should qualify for L2.

Layback Spin: To qualify for level two, she need to include two of the following: One change of position from backwards to sideways or sideways to backwards; hold of each position for at least three rotations (she didn't hold the sideways position for three positions); increase the speed after establishing basic position (which she did), difficult variation of armhold and/or body or free leg position, which changes the weight and/or the center (which she did). This spin should qualify for L2.

Spin Combination (with change of foot and change of positions): To qualify for level two, she needed to include three of the following: Spin performed with two difficult variations of different positions (which she did), spin performed on both edges of one foot (which I think she did), spin has at least three changes of position, which may include final wind-up rotation (which she did), beginning with flying or backward entry (which she didn't), execution of spins in both directions (which she didn't). This spin should qualify for L2.

Step Sequence: To qualify for level three, she needed to include four of the following: Mainly use of complex turns and steps (which she did), 4 or more changes of direction (which she did), quick changes of speed during step sequence (which she did), full use of upper body movement during steps (which she did, in spades), and quick changes from steps to turns (which she did). For the first half of the sequence, when the camera was flat on her, her edges didn't look all that shallow. (After the camera went overhead and pulled out, it was difficult to tell.) This step sequence should qualify for L3.

Neither Arakawa nor Slutskaya had more than one L3, and based on Kwan's Nationals SP, neither does she. Cohen's SP levels should be more than competitive with her closest rivals, and surpass the rest of the field. Now, if she'd add some transitions to her LP...