Sasha Cohen update

[Johar]

I agree about Kostner being the biggest judges pet!

 

[dizzydi7]

I agree about Kostner being the biggest judges pet!

I agree. What's consistent about her is that she skates with a lot of speed.

Getting back to Cohen, I think she stated that her goal was to skate competitively again and hopefully qualify for the Olympics. I agree that beating Mao or Yuna would be very difficult.

Dizzy

 

[Dee4707]

Very cool... in true KW form, I have to laugh at myself and all my years of Cohen related whining & snarking because I'm really excited to see Sasha return to competitive ice. (I blame Spun and Dee for this newest version of KW hypocrasy...

Oh, Kwanford. You make my ice melt!

Talk about ice melting...KW, I knew you would come to your senses!!!

I feel schizophrenically maternal toward Sasha right now. Part of me wants her to get a life and be happy and have nothing more to do with all this insane pressure.

At least to get away from some of the Golden Skate people who were less than nice to her.

The other part (serial mom) wants her to get out there and kill.

I would love to see that!!!

Spun & KW, you just made my day!!!!!!

 

[Wrlmy]

If Sasha is really in her 2006 form, even gold is not a far reach as long as she skates clean IMO. If that ever happens *fingers crossed*
Yu-Na's recent record breaking score had a lower component mark than what Sasha used to get, so pcs isn't something she needs to worry about. Yu-Na is about the only one with real consistent 3-3, so Sasha shouldn't worry too much about 3-3 either. All she needs to do is come back and skate as best as she can!

 

[antmanb]

I don't think Carolina is that overmarked - she is on occasion but she's by no means the only one. IMO, she and her team are smart when it comes to working the system, and her marks reflect that. Also, she is very fast on the ice, which works in her favor.

To be fiar though i wasn't saying that she is the only one who gets over marked rather, like slutskaya back in the day, if she makes mistakes (which Kostner frequently makes multiple times within a program) the judges mark the rest of the elements high enough to allow for that. The only evidence against that is the dubious call of her spin at Europeans that probably cost her the title. Other than that one instance though i think the judges have consistently tried to help her out.

But why wouldn't Sasha, if she's back on form, be able to beat Caro? She did just that at 2005 and 2006 Worlds, at the Olympics (granted, Kostner was awful for most of that season - but she's hardly the most consistent skater out there even now). Sasha's PB is higher, and her presentation is great. I expect that with the crackdown on edges and URs, Sasha would suffer - but it's not clear cut at all that she'd lose to Kostner. Only to Yu-Na and Mao .

I guess my main reason is that Sasha with one or two big errors (like falls) woud fair worse than Carolina with multiple small errors like the type she tends to have with her jumps, that don't seem to affect her marks. Suppose Sasha and Carolina have ahd there fair share of gifts from the judges, we'd have to wait and see who is the more favoured skater.

And I still don't see either Mao or Yuna as being these untouchable skaters, they screw up just as often if not more so than the other skaters. In the big pressure cooker pot of the Olympics i think it fairly probable that one or both will have one or more major problems letting other skaters pull of the skate of a lifetime for a win.

Ant

 

[Buttercup]

If she makes mistakes (which Kostner frequently makes multiple times within a program) the judges mark the rest of the elements high enough to allow for that. The only evidence against that is the dubious call of her spin at Europeans that probably cost her the title.

That call definitely cost her the title. I'm not sure it was dubious per se, just seemed a bit unfair as it's rarely applied. You're right that she gets good marks even when making mistakes - the question is, should her successful elements be marked lower? Caro is an interesting case study in this regard because she does some things very well but those endless setup times for the jumps... I don't know. I still like her . I don't think she's gifted in the PCS. I see it as a misconception due to PCS being equated with artistry, but that's not what they are.

In the big pressure cooker pot of the Olympics i think it fairly probable that one or both will have one or more major problems letting other skaters pull of the skate of a lifetime for a win.

Wouldn't it be really cool if that skater ends up being someone you really wouldn't expect? Say, a veteran who's gotten good results over the years, but never won the big events? I like Yu-Na and Carolina but I think it would be really nice to see a skater like Sarah Meier or Fumie winning a medal. :agree:

 

[herios]

If Sasha is really in her 2006 form, even gold is not a far reach as long as she skates clean IMO. If that ever happens *fingers crossed*
Yu-Na's recent record breaking score had a lower component mark than what Sasha used to get, so pcs isn't something she needs to worry about. Yu-Na is about the only one with real consistent 3-3, so Sasha shouldn't worry too much about 3-3 either. All she needs to do is come back and skate as best as she can!

I read a report only about a week ago that in Dallas SOI show, she had her upper thigh bandaged and the only jump she landed was a double toe...so GOOD LUCK in her come back attempt!! :disagree:

 

[chuckm]

Clean Cohen is an oxymoron. When has Cohen ever skated a clean FS in a major event (Nationals, Worlds, Olympics)?

 

[kittyjake5]

In the article Phil says that Sasha will decide in June. Until she makes an
official announcement I am just going to adopt a wait and see attitude about
her comeback.

 

[HCOSurfer]

Clean Cohen is an oxymoron. When has Cohen ever skated a clean FS in a major event (Nationals, Worlds, Olympics)?

2003 Worlds Qualifying:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdkHvAcve2Y

 

[skatingbc]

Clean Cohen is an oxymoron. When has Cohen ever skated a clean FS in a major event (Nationals, Worlds, Olympics)?

I was thinking the same thing!

What's the point of comparing a Clean Cohen to everyone else if it rarely, if ever, happens? A more realistic comparison would be One/Two-Mistake Cohen to everyone else! If she did skate clean (no edge calls/wobbly landings) and has the jump content (everything except the axel), then I see no reason why she wouldn't be able to compete with Mao or Yu-Na. Unfortunately, I just don't see that happening.

 

[Hikaru]

Or she could skate a kick-***-out-of-this-universe SP that would allow her to have enough points to keep a lead. It has been done by some skaters these past years.

 

[MKFSfan]

I think it's realistic to think if Sasha really returns to 2006 form, with the same content she had then, she'll contend for Bronze. I know you can't really compare points from competition to competition, and obviously the rules have changed since 2006. I think the scores before are higher than would be now. But that said, checking out the points, Sasha's not that far behind:

Olympics: SP was 66.73 (35.33/31.40) arguably her best done SP, just a glitch on the axle.
LP: 116.63 (55.22/62.41) HUGE PCS for that sort of problematic program-fall, near fall and 2-foot-so 4 clean triples here.

YuNa-Her best SP was at 4CC: 72.24 (42./30.04) and yet her PCS was a +1pt lower than Sasha
And at 4CCs with 4 clean triples, she got a 116.83 (58.88/60.88) Again lower PCS
(((chances are had she done these programs in 2006, especially the SP, PCS marks would've been even higher.))

Mao-we still haven't seen a clean SP this season, but despite the botched 3/3, she garnered 65.38 (35.70/29.68)for her SP at GPF
4 clean triples at 4CCs got her a 118.66 (58.58/60.08)

So, I think we can expect if Sasha competed exactly as she did at the 2006 Olympics, her over total would drop 4-5 points (taking into account her flutz and that her sequence wouldn't count as it was, and now 1 less spin in the LP.) I wonder if that would still hold her up over Cara and Joannie?

Joannie's best so far this year was at 4CC-SP: 66.90 LP: 117.01 (and that was for a 6 triple program, w/o the last salchow being counted.)

Cara has been pretty bad in the SP this year, but her 4 triple GPF got a 112.13.

SO...I think Sasha can beat Cara, and if she's clean, or at least with one mistake less than she did at Oly, probably will beat Joannie. I doubt she'll beat a clean/semi-clean Mao or Yu-Na. But the ice is slippery!!


edited to add: Hikaru-I doubt Sasha can do much more to pad a lead after the SP unless she lands a ratified 3/3. In 2006, she got a -0.14 GOE on her clean 3/2 and -0.20 GOE, but otherwise, all else was best she's ever done. She recieved 2 level 3s for her flying sit spin and for FW, all else were level 4s, so she could up the level of that one spin. Other than that, I think the highest without a 3/3 would be mid-high 60's (as we saw with Joannie at 4CC).

 

[GiuliaPlum]

If Sasha is really in her 2006 form, even gold is not a far reach as long as she skates clean IMO. If that ever happens *fingers crossed*
Yu-Na's recent record breaking score had a lower component mark than what Sasha used to get, so pcs isn't something she needs to worry about. Yu-Na is about the only one with real consistent 3-3, so Sasha shouldn't worry too much about 3-3 either. All she needs to do is come back and skate as best as she can!

Well, about these highest PCs... if Cohen comes back she will skate to Очи чёрные? (it's "Dark eyes", don't worry ) is it the best choice she can make? I don't know if it's a good thing to skate to the same piece of music at two Olys. It's a kind of... you know, bad. (ok, I'm not a champion in writing my ideas)

 

[Buttercup]

So, I think we can expect if Sasha competed exactly as she did at the 2006 Olympics, her over total would drop 4-5 points (taking into account her flutz and that her sequence wouldn't count as it was, and now 1 less spin in the LP.) I wonder if that would still hold her up over Cara and Joannie?

SO...I think Sasha can beat Cara, and if she's clean, or at least with one mistake less than she did at Oly, probably will beat Joannie. I doubt she'll beat a clean/semi-clean Mao or Yu-Na. But the ice is slippery!!

1. I assume by Cara you're referring to Carolina Kostner. I've never seen her called Cara anywhere.

2. I'm sure if Sasha does come back the programs will be constructed in order to maximize points, so she might be able to make up for some of the things you mentioned. She could just drop the lutz completely, it won't be that costly.

3. Not sure using 4CC scores as a basis for comparison is a good idea. It's hard enough comparing between events and seasons, and at 4CC skaters are often overmarked.

But I do agree with your conclusion, taking into account that Caro will likely mess up at least one program.

 

[MKFSfan]

Opps! That was supposed to be CarO! My mistake.

I agree you can't compare comp to comp, and yes, 4CC scores are often higher, but it seems like that happens at all the big events. My point was look at those scores: Sasha's Olympic LP with only 4 clean triples, an extra spin, a jump sequence that would not be counted under these new rules, a flutz and extra positions in the spiral sequence (which I imagine helped her +GOEs) STILL garnered a 116.63. So, even if you take that score, which clearly would be lowered under the new rules, she still falls short of the 4 triple programs under the new rules with e/!, one less spin that Mao/Yu-Na put out at 4CCs, inflated scores all around, yet Joannie with 6 triples is barely beating that 2006 score.

I wonder if Sasha would keep the SP jump content the same: 3lz/2t, 3f, 2ax or if she would try to maximize points with a 3f/2t, 3s and 2ax. My feeling is she'll stick with the 1st set.

 

[Buttercup]

I wonder if Sasha would keep the SP jump content the same: 3lz/2t, 3f, 2ax or if she would try to maximize points with a 3f/2t, 3s and 2ax. My feeling is she'll stick with the 1st set.

She should drop the lutz. There is no way she can avoid an edge call. Sasha's loop is ok, IIRC, and the difference in base value between the lutz and the loop can be made up by not getting a -1 GOE.

 

[MKFSfan]

That would be interesting! I always wondered why Mao didn't go that route...

 

[Pikachuusb]

I want to see her come back just so I can see 2 new competition programs from her. Im selfish I know. Hence the same reason Im wanting Michelle back I dont think they can beath Yu-Na or Mao at this point(I could be mistaken) but Id be beyond thrilled to see them go full out and try for the podium.

I think if either came back they'd hire a specialist who'd be able to work the points and make new programs that worked to thier benefit. Im the SP I think Sasha would be right in the mix. Her SPs were usually great. Its the LP where she'd have to maximize points to counterbalance any errors/edge calls.

I wonder if she'd be able to work on the entrances to some of those jumps before the new season to get the problems fixed, or are they already too engrained to be changed at this point.

Does anyone know if she is working with a coach/choreographer/jump specialist at this point? I love John Nicks but I wish she would have stayed with TT.

At any rate I wish her the best of luck in whatever she decides

 

[Mathman]

That would be interesting! I always wondered why Mao didn't go that route...

I think Mao is determined to become a complete skater. It seems like she cares more about mastering her weaknesses than in squeezing points out of the system. If so, good on 'er!