Score Sheet Comparison - Sasha and Irina

[Doggygirl]

Since they will not meet up until Olys (assuming they both make their teams, are healthy, etc.) I decided to print their score sheets from their respective cheesefest program debuts. Just for fun, here are some numbers:

Base values:

Irina:
Jump elements 39.7
Non-jumps 14.2 (1 L1, 2 L2, 2 L3, 1 L4)
Total Base: 53.9
Jump GOE: +2.75, -3 (fall) for a total of -.25
Non-jump GOE: 2.26

Sasha:
Jump elements 38.7
Non-jumps 17.1 (4 L3, 2 L4)
Total base: 55.8
Jump GOE: +3, and -1.67 for a total of +1.33
Non-jump GOE: +4.67

Their PCS scores were very comparable at 60.X each.

I would expect that Irina's base value in jumps will go up a bit at some point - I would expect one of the 3/2's to become a 3/3, or the 3/2/2 to become a 3/3/2. And I think that fall is pretty uncharacteristic Irina.

Of course Sasha's attempted SEQ didn't count. Now I'm not sure whether the SEQ itself as attempted was actually not a valid SEQ per the rules, or if it got "0" because it was actually an 8th jumping pass. (didn't realize that part about the 8th jumping pass until today - maybe I'm just dense!) At any rate, I do expect that whatever problem occured there will get fixed - and I'm guessing the plan is a 3/3 SEQ.

I think their base values will end up pretty close in the jump department, but I give the edge to Irina just because she tends to be so much more consistent with her jumps, and I think is more likely to fare better in the GOE department than Sasha, and probably have at least one if not two more jumps than Sasha after the 2 minute mark.

Sasha gets the clear edge (for now) in the non-jump department both in levels and GOE. Sasha fared better by 5.31 points in base +GOE.

I would assume Irina is working to increase some of the non-jump levels.

This should be an interesting match up. I sure wish we would get a preview at the GPF or something, but assuming Sasha does TEB as planned, and even if she wins, I don't think 12 points will cut it for GPF under this years rules. ETA and of course I'm also assuming Irina will skate both of her events and do well, which may or may not happen.

And then of course, we have all those other skaters - some of whom we've seen, and many more we have yet to see!

DG

 

[slutskayafan21]

Thanks for the breakdown, I have been looking at Irinas scores from her Japan outing, and Sasha from the Campbells outing, as well, and there were some interesting things to notice. Campbells has become so out to left field as a skating event, I take it with a grain of salt however, I could not imagine Meissner getting anywhere near a 109.xx without her triple axel for example. Still Sasha might well have the early season edge on Irina, it will be interesting to see how these 2 favorites for the Oly gold match up as the season progresses.

 

[Doggygirl]

Thanks for the breakdown, I have been looking at Irinas scores from her Japan outing, and Sasha from the Campbells outing, as well, and there were some interesting things to notice. Campbells has become so out to left field as a skating event, I take it with a grain of salt .

ITA - I take both of these with a grain of salt since neither involved a full judging panel, no SP, etc. This will all become more interesting after COC and TEB where we have SP's and full judging panels. I really love having these score sheets to pore over and I hope Speedy never takes that away from us!!

DG

 

[Doggygirl]

Something I'm curious about...

I know there are some of you out there in cyberspace who really know the elements and have a clear opinion on what levels elements SHOULD be called. Since we're talking about score sheet comparisons between two different comps, and subsequently two different technical callers, I'm curious.

Do those of you "in the know" who have watched both performances think that the levels were called correctly? Or were things a bit generous (as one possible example) at Campbell's?

DG

 

[R.D.]

The analysis is interesting to read. But I must say one thing- a lot of things can change in four months.

 

[Mathman]

I think Irina is still in the driver's seat. Except for landing all her jumps, I do not see how Sasha can score much higher that she did at Campbell's. Without the mistake on the sequence (which cost her credit for the final solo Sal), she can't raise her base marks for jumps without a triple/triple. Her spins and spirals are already near the top.

Irina, on the other hand, can dust off her triple loop / triple loop and her triple Lutz / triple loop -- oh wait, that's how she got in trouble at Worlds, LOL -- anyway, she can up the ante technically to what she was performing at the end of last season. If Irina delivers a technical tour-de-force, the judges will also shower her with Program Component Scores.

MM

 

[Doggygirl]

I think Irina is still in the driver's seat. Except for landing all her jumps, I do not see how Sasha can score much higher that she did at Campbell's. Without the mistake on the sequence (which cost her credit for the final solo Sal), she can't raise her base marks for jumps without a triple/triple. Her spins and spirals are already near the top.

Irina, on the other hand, can dust off her triple loop / triple loop and her triple Lutz / triple loop -- oh wait, that's how she got in trouble at Worlds, LOL -- anyway, she can up the ante technically to what she was performing at the end of last season. If Irina delivers a technical tour-de-force, the judges will also shower her with Program Component Scores.

MM

Actually what I somewhat interesting is that Sasha DID land all her jumps (for a change) and Irina did not (the fall on the 3F). I don't expect Irina to repeat that fall, but I also don't expect Sasha to blow a SEQ whether that was rules based on the SEQ itself, or just completely disqualified as an 8th jumping pass.

I do expect Irina to dust off some tripples in combo. I just wonder how Sasha might excel particularly in the non-jump elements, where she seemingly has the advantage.

HEY!! Just trying to keep the season interesting don't you know. But then there is that whole Marshall's popularity contest which seems a bit crazy to me.

DG

 

[emma]

While I too feel Irina has the lead...these numbers show them (sasha and irina) to be much closer than I had thought, and if Sasha skates clean (with the jumps in particular) and executes those 'wow' non-jump spins, etc., she might just get higher PCS than Irina....I can't wait to see these two head to head...when is that?

 

[mzheng]

While I too feel Irina has the lead...these numbers show them (sasha and irina) to be much closer than I had thought, and if Sasha skates clean (with the jumps in particular) and executes those 'wow' non-jump spins, etc., she might just get higher PCS than Irina....I can't wait to see these two head to head...when is that?

Olympics.

 

[Doggygirl]

I can't figure the PCS...

Since they were Oh So Close on PCS (less then 1 point difference on a 60 point basis) I'm not even looking at that.

I think it might come down to TES - Jumps (advantage Irina IMO) v. Non-Jumps (advantage Sasha IMO)

I truly hope that NEITHER of them enter that Marshall's Fiasco Waiting To Happen.

And if MK turns up there, I might shed some serious tears.

DG

 

[gracefulswan]

I certainly think sasha can beat irina... if she's clean she has the edge imo... and if irina tries to 3/3 her way to victory...she might think twice...remember 2001 worlds? i also have heard negative reviews for her new long program this season... but haven't seen it yet.

the only thing irina's got over sasha is the jump consistency... and that's it. but sasha can throw it away again if she can't stay on her feet and/or puts her hands down.

 

[chuckm]

Sasha double-footed a couple of her jumps at Campbell's, and she did that at Worlds last year, too. A few -GOEs here and there take their toll. They both will be under heavy, heavy pressure. It's possible that neither will skate clean.....

 

[havanamesa1]

Expect Irina to lead after the SP. Even if she falls and commits other mistakes in her LP, her edge over Sasha will just widen, no matter how well Sasha performs. Wait, didn't a similar situation just happen recently... at Euros?

Oh, and don't forget, Irina's on steroids, so we already know who's not going to be tired after the two-minute mark...

 

[Rgirl]

Expect Irina to lead after the SP. Even if she falls and commits other mistakes in her LP, her edge over Sasha will just widen, no matter how well Sasha performs. Wait, didn't a similar situation just happen recently... at Euros?

Oh, and don't forget, Irina's on steroids, so we already know who's not going to be tired after the two-minute mark...

And lest we forget, Irina is NOT on ANABOLIC (build-up) steroids such as were apparently used by certain baseball players. Irina has an inflammatory disease, vasculitis (more complex than this, but the reason she's taking "steroids" is for the inflammation of every blood vessel in her body). Therefore, Irina would be taking some form of cortisone, which is a CATABOLIC (break-down) steroid but which is perhaps the strongest anti-inflammatory medication currently available, though not without some terrible side effects.

The first day or two a patient takes some form of cortisone, such as Prednisone or others, the patient is very hyped up and typically feels as if s/he can "do anything." But that subsides after a few days as the cortisone the patient is taking as medication substitutes for the cortisol produced primarily by the adrenal glands. Some of the side effects of cortisone, depending on the dose, are extreme hunger due to hypoglycemia; loss of cartilage in the hip and shoulder joints; and general bone loss.

I must emphasize that I don't know anything other than what's been reported about Irina's health problems. She may not be on cortisone at all this year if the vasculitis is under control. But apparently she was at '05 Worlds and on the ESPN recap of Worlds when they asked each gold medal skater or team to watch the tape of their free-skate and say what was going through their minds, Irina kept talking about how tired she was during the last half of her program. She made a mistake in the choreography; doing her footwork she kept saying, "I have no legs here. My legs are dead!" and later on a camel spin, she says something similar, "I don't know how I do this, my legs are so tired." Also,you can see the huffing and puffing she's doing after her skate.

The point is, Irina is not now nor has she ever been on anabolic steroids such as the kind body builders use to bulk up or that track and field athletes use to enhance their performances. Anabolic steroids would make someone with vasculitis worse. Catabolic steroids, which work as very strong anti-inflammatories and thus prevent, it is hoped, further degeneration of the patient's blood vessels, do NOTHING to allow an athlete to be "higher, faster, stronger" or have greater endurance.

Sometimes I think that because Irina wasn't seen when she was really sick with the vasculitis that people weren't able to get an idea of how seriously ill she was and can still become, since it is often a chronic condition with good periods and bad periods. Also, the use of the term "steroid" is very confusing since most people associate it with being one of a number performance enhancing sterioids rather than the anti-inflammatory steroids used to treat diseases or given as shots to reduce the inflammation in an injury.

In short, Irina would not be able to compete in any ISU event, including the Olympics--ESPECIALLY the Olympics, where doping is a very serious business. I wish the media would have done a better job of explaining the difference between the cortisone steroids Irina would have been prescribed and the anabolic muscle-building steroids athletes get on the black market. Sad that Irina should be suspected of something heinous when she's had to battle a very painful disease and may still be battling it.

Rgirl

 

[antmanb]

Since they will not meet up until Olys (assuming they both make their teams, are healthy, etc.) I decided to print their score sheets from their respective cheesefest program debuts. Just for fun, here are some numbers:

Base values:

Irina:
Jump elements 39.7
Non-jumps 14.2 (1 L1, 2 L2, 2 L3, 1 L4)
Total Base: 53.9
Jump GOE: +2.75, -3 (fall) for a total of -.25
Non-jump GOE: 2.26

Sasha:
Jump elements 38.7
Non-jumps 17.1 (4 L3, 2 L4)
Total base: 55.8
Jump GOE: +3, and -1.67 for a total of +1.33
Non-jump GOE: +4.67

Their PCS scores were very comparable at 60.X each.

I would expect that Irina's base value in jumps will go up a bit at some point - I would expect one of the 3/2's to become a 3/3, or the 3/2/2 to become a 3/3/2. And I think that fall is pretty uncharacteristic Irina.

Of course Sasha's attempted SEQ didn't count. Now I'm not sure whether the SEQ itself as attempted was actually not a valid SEQ per the rules, or if it got "0" because it was actually an 8th jumping pass. (didn't realize that part about the 8th jumping pass until today - maybe I'm just dense!) At any rate, I do expect that whatever problem occured there will get fixed - and I'm guessing the plan is a 3/3 SEQ.

I think their base values will end up pretty close in the jump department, but I give the edge to Irina just because she tends to be so much more consistent with her jumps, and I think is more likely to fare better in the GOE department than Sasha, and probably have at least one if not two more jumps than Sasha after the 2 minute mark.

Sasha gets the clear edge (for now) in the non-jump department both in levels and GOE. Sasha fared better by 5.31 points in base +GOE.

I would assume Irina is working to increase some of the non-jump levels.

This should be an interesting match up. I sure wish we would get a preview at the GPF or something, but assuming Sasha does TEB as planned, and even if she wins, I don't think 12 points will cut it for GPF under this years rules. ETA and of course I'm also assuming Irina will skate both of her events and do well, which may or may not happen.

And then of course, we have all those other skaters - some of whom we've seen, and many more we have yet to see!

DG

Thanks for all of this info DG - it was really intersting to compare their respective totals. ONe thing to bear in mind though was that IIRC at least one of the judges at Campbells was giving marks that gave the impression they were high! One of them gave her a couple of +3 GOEs for elements which was two points higher than the majority of the rest gave. I think the judging was very generous which might explain the advantage in GOEs at Campbells for Sasha. Isn't it still the case (disregarding campbells) that there still hasn't been a +3 awarded yet froma judge in international competition?

Ant

 

[antmanb]

I certainly think sasha can beat irina... if she's clean she has the edge imo... and if irina tries to 3/3 her way to victory...she might think twice...remember 2001 worlds? i also have heard negative reviews for her new long program this season... but haven't seen it yet.

the only thing irina's got over sasha is the jump consistency... and that's it. but sasha can throw it away again if she can't stay on her feet and/or puts her hands down.

Does Irina really have the advantage with consistency on her jumps? Irina doesn't regularly churn out 7 triples programs. Even worlds - the third loop didn't count so that was 6 triples. Europeans was what 3 triples? How did she do in the GP? When was the last time she did a 7 triple program? While I agree that falling for Irina is quite rare she does tend to pop the jumps the might otherwise fall on - triple flip at SLC notwithstanding!

Ant

 

[Doggygirl]

RGirl - thanks for again pointing out the important difference between the type of steroid medication Irina requires v. the type that are used illegally for muscle building.

Ant - Sasha did get 1 +3 GOE from 1 judge on 1 of her spins. But I do agree with your point that GOE's can differ between judging panels, and that IIRC it is pretty rare to see a +3.

This is just my own opinion, but having seen both performances, Sasha's program in general seemed more "ready" to my eyes than Irina's. Not sure if this is the reason, but of course Sasha was preparing to compete at SA shortly after Cambbell's, whereas Irina's first showing at Japan was many weeks before her first GP assignment at COC. One of the most interesting things to note at COC will be whether Irina's non-jump elements are called higher. I was surprised she didn't have more L3's and L4's in the debut.

It will be fun to watch the season play out, no doubt about that!

DG

 

[VINLUVSKWAN]

"Sasha double-footed a couple of her jumps at Campbell's..."

Sasha almost, but did not, double-foot her solo triple flip at Campbells; this was the closest to 2-footing in the entire performance, and NO second triple was double-footed. When Dick analyzed her jumps, there was a magnified footage of her said solo 3 flip, and her free leg did not touch the ice, just graced/skimmed over it. Her solo triple salchow, however, was rotated so fast without much height as she usually does on her edge jumps, and this salchow was clearly underrotated (though she did not receive GOE, but she was not credited with it either).

 

[antmanb]

RGirl - thanks for again pointing out the important difference between the type of steroid medication Irina requires v. the type that are used illegally for muscle building.

Ant - Sasha did get 1 +3 GOE from 1 judge on 1 of her spins. But I do agree with your point that GOE's can differ between judging panels, and that IIRC it is pretty rare to see a +3.

This is just my own opinion, but having seen both performances, Sasha's program in general seemed more "ready" to my eyes than Irina's. Not sure if this is the reason, but of course Sasha was preparing to compete at SA shortly after Cambbell's, whereas Irina's first showing at Japan was many weeks before her first GP assignment at COC. One of the most interesting things to note at COC will be whether Irina's non-jump elements are called higher. I was surprised she didn't have more L3's and L4's in the debut.

It will be fun to watch the season play out, no doubt about that!

DG

I think that's a very good point about Sasha being comeptition ready at Campbells. I also think there were sepculations (that were maybe also confirmed) that Irina purposefully did an easier non jump program in Japan just to see how her program went, with the intention of adding the position in spins etc to get higher difficulty for the GP season.

Ant

 

[Doggygirl]

I think that's a very good point about Sasha being comeptition ready at Campbells. I also think there were sepculations (that were maybe also confirmed) that Irina purposefully did an easier non jump program in Japan just to see how her program went, with the intention of adding the position in spins etc to get higher difficulty for the GP season.

Ant

Re: Irina's levels, that would make sense given where she was in her season with regard to GP assignments.

DG