Skaters that you felt would never go to the Olympics but ended up going

[yume]

Akiko Suziki - No one expected her to make the Olympic Team when she made her GPS debut at age 23 in 2008. JSF intended to send Nakano Yukari to Vancouver because they were heavily criticized for scarifying her to send Miki Ando to Turin.

And they ditched her again for Ando who finished 4th at 2009-10 nats. No wonder the majority of Japanese fans were strongly for Sakamoto going over Higuchi in 2018.
I wonder if fed still would have left her at home if she had finished 2nd. She was just something like 0,15 pts behind Suzuki overall. They probably would have since both Ando and Suzuki podiumed at GPF.

 

[TontoK]

Perhaps but I recall just recently for Beijing a long thread about Ilia not being selected... I would expect the unawareness would wear off at some point if that was the main factor

You are correct. I was disappointed with the selection outcome.

Jason finished a very solid 6th at the Olympics, better than Adam's 10th, so in hindsight it wasn't as bad so far as the final standings went. What was lost was the opportunity for Ilia to have his first Olympic experience. We recall that Nathan's first Olympics didn't go to plan, but he learned from that and went on to dominate his second. Will USFSA ultimately regret not giving the nod to Ilia? Who can say, time will tell.

And while I am certainly aware of the selection criteria, it doesn't mean I have to like them. And I don't.

 

[gkelly]

The USFSA snuck up on us over the years. They gradually and subtly changed the criteria for selection to the Olympic team over about a decade and did so withoiut much publicity. Fans had gotten used to the "first three at Nationals go, period" formula,

Not "period." There had already been exceptions to that

More like "unless a recent World medalist had to withdraw from Nationals but would be ready for the Olympics"

E.g., Eldredge 1992, Kerrigan 1994, Meno & Sand 1998

And also "unless a top finisher was not eligible to compete at the Olympics because of age or citizenship"

E.g., both the second- and third-place dance teams in 2002

What was new in more recent years was passing over someone who did compete and medal at Nationals for someone else who also competed at Nationals and finished behind them there (but had a better "body of work" internationally).

 

[lariko]

The first came to my mind was Larkyn Austman :



She was not bad for her first Olympic. But I would have never predict her to go to the Olympic.
I was thinking that Alaine Chartrand would have go easily instead of her.

Davis/Smolkin

And, Mozalev! And see how well it turned out...

 

[yume]

Julian Yee
I never stressed so much during a challenger.

 

[mikeko666]

And they ditched her again for Ando who finished 4th at 2009-10 nats. No wonder the majority of Japanese fans were strongly for Sakamoto going over Higuchi in 2018.
I wonder if fed still would have left her at home if she had finished 2nd. She was just something like 0,15 pts behind Suzuki overall. They probably would have since both Ando and Suzuki podiumed at GPF.

The gap between Suzuki and Nakano would have been much wider than 0.15 if it was by an international panel because Nakano's jumping technique was very disliked by ISU judges. JSF tried really hard to send Nakano to Vancouver. Suzuki's coach Hiroshi Nagakubo later said he thought she was going to lose when he saw the judge panel at Nationals.

 

[macy]

Regarding Wagner, back in 2010-2011 if you'd have asked me this question i'd definitely have said no. after she changed coaches and her skating completely changed within an off season, 100%. i knew she'd no question (and rightfully) be going in 2014 despite a rough showing at Nationals.

 

[el henry]

You are correct. I was disappointed with the selection outcome.

Jason finished a very solid 6th at the Olympics, better than Adam's 10th, so in hindsight it wasn't as bad so far as the final standings went. What was lost was the opportunity for Ilia to have his first Olympic experience. We recall that Nathan's first Olympics didn't go to plan, but he learned from that and went on to dominate his second. Will USFSA ultimately regret not giving the nod to Ilia? Who can say, time will tell.

And while I am certainly aware of the selection criteria, it doesn't mean I have to like them. And I don't.

Here is where we do disagree (and remain friends). Not because I love Jason, although I obviously do.

But because in my opinion the Olympics are not a training camp. A country should not be sending skaters for “experience”. They should be sending the top three who qualify according to the criteria. My reading of the criteria is that they pretty firmly supported the choice of Jason in 2022.

If the criteria for any sport mean sending three forty year olds who will never compete again after the Olympics, if they met the criteria and qualified fair and square, then off to the Olympics they go.

 

[4everchan]

@el henry

Jason, no matter what happened in terms of national selection is not a skater that fits the category : "saw him and never felt he would go to the olympics and somehow made it".

 

[el henry]

@el henry

Jason, no matter what happened in terms of national selection is not a skater that fits the category : "saw him and never felt he would go to the olympics and somehow made it".

Thread drift is a beautiful thing: Adam Rippon is to Ross Miner is to Ilia Malinin is to Jason Brown.

And in the words of Billy Joel, We (I) didn't start the fire.

 

[Mathman]

The point I was trying to make (specifically about the Ashley Wagner vs Mirai Nagasu situation) was not so much, what is the right way to select the Olympic Team, or what is the fairest way to select the Olympic team, or what is the most sportsmanlike way of selecting the Olympic team, or what is the the most productive way of selecting the Olym[pic team (in terms of possible medales, etc.) Rather: In reality, like it or not, what IS the USFSA's method of selecting the Olympic team.

Edit: Where the USFSA can be criticized, in my opinion, is that they gave insufficient publicity and firmness to the new criteria as they developed, leaving the impression that the choice is mpre or less left up to the shifting whims of the selection committee.

 

[TontoK]

Here is where we do disagree (and remain friends). Not because I love Jason, although I obviously do.

But because in my opinion the Olympics are not a training camp. A country should not be sending skaters for “experience”. They should be sending the top three who qualify according to the criteria. My reading of the criteria is that they pretty firmly supported the choice of Jason in 2022.

If the criteria for any sport mean sending three forty year olds who will never compete again after the Olympics, if they met the criteria and qualified fair and square, then off to the Olympics they go.

Of course, it's not a training ground... but even in the era of new selection criteria, at the most important competition of the year to date, Ilia did beat Jason in both the long and short programs, and he finished two places above him in total standings by about 13 points or so, becoming only the second man to break 300 points at US Nationals.

Ilia's sparse senior record to that point was a function of age eligibility... not ability, work ethic, innate talent, etc. In this case, the selection criteria acted as a "wait your turn" mechanism, which I've never endorsed.

All of this is not to say that I don't enjoy Jason's skating... I like BOTH of these men.

But I do wonder... Jason finished less than a half a point out of third. If he had beaten Vincent and secured his spot by virtue of final standing, would people have rallied to Vincent's cause as strongly as they did Jason's? Would USFSA have picked 4th place Vincent over Ilia?

 

[el henry]

Of course, it's not a training ground... but even in the era of new selection criteria, at the most important competition of the year to date, Ilia did beat Jason in both the long and short programs, and he finished two places above him in total standings by about 13 points or so, becoming only the second man to break 300 points at US Nationals.

Ilia's sparse senior record to that point was a function of age eligibility... not ability, work ethic, innate talent, etc. In this case, the selection criteria acted as a "wait your turn" mechanism, which I've never endorsed.

All of this is not to say that I don't enjoy Jason's skating... I like BOTH of these men.

But I do wonder... Jason finished less than a half a point out of third. If he had beaten Vincent and secured his spot by virtue of final standing, would people have rallied to Vincent's cause as strongly as they did Jason's? Would USFSA have picked 4th place Vincent over Ilia?

I don't know the answer to those questions. ETA: My thoughts, the USFS would have picked Vincent over Ilia. Vincent met the criteria.

But (and in the name of Holy Mother Thread Drift, I will stop after this post) Ilia had no one but his team and himself to blame if he didn't qualify for the Olys. Because he (or his team) chose not to compete as a senior, knowing full darn well how important senior competition results were to the selection process. Or if he/they didn't know, why not? Show up at Nats and do the old razzmatazz and hope the selection critieria would be ignored?

Do you really mean that selection criteria that was set forth six months earlier, of which all the competitors were given fair notice, should be ignored because you don't like the result? I know you are fairer than that.

OK everyone, I am done, back to the regularly scheduled program.

 

[4everchan]

But I do wonder... Jason finished less than a half a point out of third. If he had beaten Vincent and secured his spot by virtue of final standing, would people have rallied to Vincent's cause as strongly as they did Jason's? Would USFSA have picked 4th place Vincent over Ilia?

That's a very interesting question...

 

[Jumping_Bean]

But I do wonder... Jason finished less than a half a point out of third. If he had beaten Vincent and secured his spot by virtue of final standing, would people have rallied to Vincent's cause as strongly as they did Jason's? Would USFSA have picked 4th place Vincent over Ilia?

Vincent would have almost certainly been picked over Ilia, he was (unusually) strong in the Olympic season, winning against Nathan at Skate America and qualifying for the (then cancelled) GPF.
His international season's best in the 2021/22 season is still higher than anything Ilia has scored internationally to this day, and was just about 7 points lower than Ilia's score at Nationals.

As for if people would have rallied to Vincent's cause as strongly? No, probably not. His political opinions in the past, large fed support at the expense of other skaters (in the eyes of fans), and very favourable judging panels have made him a particularly disliked skater for a very long time. But, what fans want should not (and luckily usually isn't) be part of how the team is selected, or else other skaters would never make the team even if they deserve it based on sports alone.

 

[yume]

But I do wonder... Jason finished less than a half a point out of third. If he had beaten Vincent and secured his spot by virtue of final standing, would people have rallied to Vincent's cause as strongly as they did Jason's? Would USFSA have picked 4th place Vincent over Ilia?

Nope. The only male skater that i've seen get more hate than Vincent is probably Morisi Kvitelashvili. That guy is very disliked on SM since he's 17yo. Many were saying that he was overscored and should have finished 3rd. That he should be the one whose spot should be in jeopardy.

 

[TontoK]

Vincent would have almost certainly been picked over Ilia, he was (unusually) strong in the Olympic season, winning against Nathan at Skate America and qualifying for the (then cancelled) GPF.
His international season's best in the 2021/22 season is still higher than anything Ilia has scored internationally to this day, and was just about 7 points lower than Ilia's score at Nationals.

As for if people would have rallied to Vincent's cause as strongly? No, probably not. His political opinions in the past, large fed support at the expense of other skaters (in the eyes of fans), and very favourable judging panels have made him a particularly disliked skater for a very long time. But, what fans want should not (and luckily usually isn't) be part of how the team is selected, or else other skaters would never make the team even if they deserve it based on sports alone.

I agree that Vincent's case on paper would have been stronger, and I also agree that many people wouldn't have been bothered if he'd been left off if his and Jason's placements had been reversed. I'd like the think that USFSA would have ruled in the same way... but I don't know that.

My stance would have remained unchanged - Top 3 go under a trials scenario. If the Jason supporters wouldn't have been equally vociferous about Vincent, then they would have to admit that criteria be damned, they just wanted Jason on the Team no matter what - and there's just no way to square that with any concept of fairness to all the athletes.

 

[TallyT]

@el henry

Jason, no matter what happened in terms of national selection is not a skater that fits the category : "saw him and never felt he would go to the olympics and somehow made it".

Even more so given that the first time much of the world actually saw him was at the Olympics, maybe????

 

[Sai Bon]

The gap between Suzuki and Nakano would have been much wider than 0.15 if it was by an international panel because Nakano's jumping technique was very disliked by ISU judges. JSF tried really hard to send Nakano to Vancouver. Suzuki's coach Hiroshi Nagakubo later said he thought she was going to lose when he saw the judge panel at Nationals.

>because Nakano's jumping technique was very disliked by ISU judges.
Can you elaborate, mikeko666? Just curious - I think Akiko's jumping technique was pretty sound, but she didn't have the hardest content. I don't remember Yukari's skating much.

 

[TallyT]

Edit: Where the USFSA can be criticized, in my opinion, is that they gave insufficient publicity and firmness to the new criteria as they developed, leaving the impression that the choice is mpre or less left up to the shifting whims of the selection committee.

Call me cynical, but I very much doubt that insufficiency was at all accidental or unthought of...

would people have rallied to Vincent's cause as strongly as they did Jason's?

No. And if Ilia Malinin had beaten Vincent to the third place they wouldn't have either. Vincent doesn't have the same sort of fan and pr following.