State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

[silverlake22]

I watched Jiang's FS from Mids on Icenetwork. She didn't skate very well, but it wasn't a total nightmare, and, as far as I could tell, it was fairly similar to the FS she had at Nationals last year where she got around 15 more PCS points. Even in the SP, she got PCS of 22, and that was a very bad short for her, so double those points for the FS factoring and you get 44, still nearly 10 points more than what she actually got. The way she skated it's justified she didn't make it to Nationals, but I still don't understand why the PCS would tank so drastically over the course of a few months, or even the couple days btwn the SP and the FS. She is not the only example of a skater who has experienced this before. I get that maybe you have one program that's better than the other, and you might not present as well one day compared to the next, but you would think skating skills and choreography would remain fairly stable at least.

As for the final flights getting higher PCS, that would explain the scores of Jiang and Brown at last year's Nats, but why did Max Aaaron and Keegan Messing's PCS suddenly tank compared to the SP despite skating in the penultimate and ultimate groups? So some skaters can tank and program and the PCS won't be affected while others will have theirs greatly reduced? It's one thing if everyone gets a boost, or if the boost is dropped when said skater doesn't skate well, but they are just so inconsistent about the scoring and it's really frustrating!

 

[icellist]

i predict Christina Gao to make GPF if Julia Lipnitskaya withdraws from TEB. Lucky her for two easy events.

 

[skfan]

with all due respect to mskater and his/her extensive experience, i can think of countless examples of when the judges must have made up their minds before the actual competitive skates. 1994 olympics pairs long program, for example. under 6.0, the mistakes that G&G made in both the short and especially the long ought to have been costly. in 6.0 it was only important to win the long as long as you were in the top 3 in the short, so i only bring up the SP errors to show that the judges are quite stubborn, LOL, and are capable of ignoring recent evidence that run counter to their expectations. the audience was so lukewarm to G&G's win that sergei grinkov was irked about it (per gordeeva's biography). i would have been ok with G&G's winning with 1 mistake in the LP, but two? to this day i believe M&D were robbed. and yes, i see that G&G have better unison, better two shall skate as one, all of that, and i consider G&G to be the far greater pair compared to M&D, but on that day, M&D deserved to win.

didn't MK say that it was important to *win* the practices? yes, she knew she was earning points, even in the 6.0 days, whenever the judges' eyes were on her. to me that means she knew the judges weren't basing their scores only on what happened on competition day.

grossano has his erudite opinion. i have my own. i doubt we will ever see eye to eye on the subject of reputation scoring.

I like Angela but I wish some of our ladies would take more risk with their choreography and music choices. It seems everyone just skates to pretty music. There a "sameness" to a lot of these programs, and I think that makes it harder for the lesser known skaters to stand out. Harding's 1991 LP, Kwan's 1996 LP, and Wagner's 2012 LP were far more interesting and brought a lot of attention to these skaters.

i like angela's LP, and while i do not like the ladies in lavender music in general, it struck me as a departure for angela. programs like her SP --what aunt joyce (of aunt joyce's icecreamstand) called... what was it... great forebears programs-- like mulan... yellow river concerto... how to tame your dragon... etc... IMO are in fact are more tried and true for angela, so for me, it was nice to see that she had acquired enough suppleness and elegance in her skating since last year's nationals to carry off ladies in lavender. and improved on her beautiful layback spin, as well.

i like angela's SP in the sense that she conveys a much greater sense of the crouching tiger, hidden dragon movie compared to when it was her LP from last year, but i don't find her SP remarkably interesting. i happen to like softer programs, softer sell in general, though IMO very few skaters do it well. i'm glad angela chose ladies in lavender and opened my eyes.


maybe some day angela can skate programs like this with the proper gravitas --
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RF6nQONpnyY

i like this program's concept, though no one will mistake angela for MK skating dream of desdemona (in both jumps and presentation). i love the dvorak music (thank you, Olympia)--i only wish it had been cut with a less abrupt ending. i wish angela hadn't dumped this program and gone with the crouching tiger, hidden dragon LP, but who can argue with success (i.e. 6th in the FS at nationals)?

whatever the placements, i just want to have some good programs to look at in the years to come, so if angela skates well and improves on her weaknesses, i will be pleased.

re: nina jiang and the PCS dive... last year nina's nationals FS PCS was buoyed by her excellent SP. she had what mrs. P might have called 'buzz' coming into the LP [momentum from winning mids + great SP at nationals], and the recency of her excellent nationals SP, which dazzled judging panel and fans alike, IMO, gave her FS PCS a boost even though she didn't skate the FS well. at mids this year--i haven't seen her FS at mids yet, but having seen her mids SP and her JGP and her skates at skate detroit... IMO, when doling out PCS for nina's FS at mids, the judges did not have as fresh a memory of an excellent skate by nina. maybe she deserved the low PCS--i can't say since i didn't see--but either way, reputation/buzz/etc. made it easier for the judges to give her a low score.

i also think some skaters are given more of a nationals boost than others. plenty of examples have already been given in this thread.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

with all due respect to mskater and his/her extensive experience, i can think of countless examples of when the judges must have made up their minds before the actual competitive skates. 1994 olympics pairs long program, for example. under 6.0, the mistakes that G&G made in both the short and especially the long ought to have been costly. in 6.0 it was only important to win the long as long as you were in the top 3 in the short, so i only bring up the SP errors to show that the judges are quite stubborn, LOL, and are capable of ignoring recent evidence that run counter to their expectations. the audience was so lukewarm to G&G's win that sergei grinkov was irked about it (per gordeeva's biography). i would have been ok with G&G's winning with 1 mistake in the LP, but two? to this day i believe M&D were robbed. and yes, i see that G&G have better unison, better two shall skate as one, all of that, and i consider G&G to be the far greater pair compared to M&D, but on that day, M&D deserved to win.

M&D reportedly had bad practices in Lilihammer, but I must say this was the judging decision I disagreed with most of any skating event I watched. It was a bit ironic that Scott H was ok with superior skating with errors beating a clean skate in 1994 but was outraged with the same scenario in 2002.

 

[skfan]

M&D reportedly had bad practices in Lilihammer, but I must say this was the judging decision I disagreed with most of any skating event I watched. It was a bit ironic that Scott H was ok with superior skating with errors beating a clean skate in 1994 but was outraged with the same scenario in 2002.

well, given scott H's fondness for G&G, esp. katia, his bias wasn't unexpected.

and M&D didn't just have bad practices at olys. they were not so great at euros, etc... whereas G&G were kicking butt the whole season long--i rewatch their LP from skate canada and euros 94 all the time. basically the whole season right up to the olympics itself M&D skated badly. but the audience is watching the olympics to see who wins olympics, not to see the career (or season-long) achievement award to be given to the skaters the judges *know* to be the best pair (of all time, some would argue) regardless of how the actual olympics SP and LP play out.


back to US ladies, though...

a very thoughtful interview with mirai nagasu (link found on FSU).
http://www.absoluteskating.com/index.php?cat=interviews&id=2012mirainagasu

gorgeous pictures, too.


ETA: added link to nagasu article

 

[silverlake22]

i predict Christina Gao to make GPF if Julia Lipnitskaya withdraws from TEB. Lucky her for two easy events.

Her events weren't that easy honestly. At both, she's up against a few VERY strong skaters, so to me, whether that is easier than being at an event with more pretty strong skaters is a toss up. I do agree she has a great shot to make the GPF though, regardless of whether Lipnitskaya withdraws or not. I could see her taking 2nd here, I really could. Julia wasn't that great at CoC and Liza seems to still be recovering from the injury.

 

[ForeverFish]

Her events weren't that easy honestly. At both, she's up against a few VERY strong skaters, so to me, whether that is easier than being at an event with more pretty strong skaters is a toss up. I do agree she has a great shot to make the GPF though, regardless of whether Lipnitskaya withdraws or not. I could see her taking 2nd here, I really could. Julia wasn't that great at CoC and Liza seems to still be recovering from the injury.

I haven't heard even the smallest rumor that Julia is withdrawing...

EDIT: Just checked the TEB threads...that's a real shame. She can't afford injuries while she's building up her senior career, but if she does withdraw, then Gao definitely has a chance at the podium. I still disagree that she'll place ahead of either Wagner or Tuktamysheva, though.

 

[mskater93]

I watched Jiang's FS from Mids on Icenetwork. She didn't skate very well, but it wasn't a total nightmare, and, as far as I could tell, it was fairly similar to the FS she had at Nationals last year where she got around 15 more PCS points. Even in the SP, she got PCS of 22, and that was a very bad short for her, so double those points for the FS factoring and you get 44, still nearly 10 points more than what she actually got. The way she skated it's justified she didn't make it to Nationals, but I still don't understand why the PCS would tank so drastically over the course of a few months, or even the couple days btwn the SP and the FS.

Again, you miss my point: PCS isn't truly a static number, it's more fluid and used like the 6.0 presentation score to rank the skaters, especially at a domestic competition like Sectionals where the judges don't "know" the skaters really well. Pretty much, everything will be based on how that first skater skates rather than some static mark around what the skater "usually" gets like you see internationally. So, if the first skater is particularly good or particularly poor, the marks will be reflected as such and everyone else's score will be a reflection of that mark. The old system had the median mark with the first skater where everyone was compared to it and PCS where the judges are unfamiliar with a skater other than a few practices/warm ups it will be kind of the same because all you can really do is reference what you've already scored in that group and make decisions such as was this skater better or worse than the previous in each of the PCS marks and by how much. At Mids this year, Melissa Jaggers was the first skater in the LP and she scored 27 something PCS so in the judges' minds, Jiang was 10 points better at 37 something than Jaggers...

 

[Mrs. P]

Again, you miss my point: PCS isn't truly a static number, it's more fluid and used like the 6.0 presentation score to rank the skaters, especially at a domestic competition like Sectionals where the judges don't "know" the skaters really well. Pretty much, everything will be based on how that first skater skates rather than some static mark around what the skater "usually" gets like you see internationally. So, if the first skater is particularly good or particularly poor, the marks will be reflected as such and everyone else's score will be a reflection of that mark. The old system had the median mark with the first skater where everyone was compared to it and PCS where the judges are unfamiliar with a skater other than a few practices/warm ups it will be kind of the same because all you can really do is reference what you've already scored in that group and make decisions such as was this skater better or worse than the previous in each of the PCS marks and by how much. At Mids this year, Melissa Jaggers was the first skater in the LP and she scored 27 something PCS so in the judges' minds, Jiang was 10 points better at 37 something than Jaggers...

Hm, if you put it that way, perhaps then I can be somewhat more accepting why Kaetlyn Osmond received such a high boost in her PCS scores at Skate Canada. However, it still doesn't make sense why judges felt that next to Akiko, she was only .2 or so worse.....

 

[kalle]

well, given scott H's fondness for G&G, esp. katia, his bias wasn't unexpected.

and M&D didn't just have bad practices at olys. they were not so great at euros, etc... whereas G&G were kicking butt the whole season long--i rewatch their LP from skate canada and euros 94 all the time. basically the whole season right up to the olympics itself M&D skated badly. but the audience is watching the olympics to see who wins olympics, not to see the career (or season-long) achievement award to be given to the skaters the judges *know* to be the best pair (of all time, some would argue) regardless of how the actual olympics SP and LP play out.


back to US ladies, though...

a very thoughtful interview with mirai nagasu (link found on FSU).
http://www.absoluteskating.com/index.php?cat=interviews&id=2012mirainagasu

gorgeous pictures, too.


ETA: added link to nagasu article

Great interview, she seems not only a year older but also a year wiser
I like the fact that she sounds motivated and somehow reestablishing herself coming into the Olympic season..

 

[used2sk8]

Pacific Coast skaters dealt with altitude. Keegan had alot of trouble, so the program was just one giant struggle to stay upright. There was not much in between due to this.

 

[ForeverFish]

Things aren't looking up for Gao to make a permanent mark before Nats...she's in seventh after the TEB SP, about 11 points from first. Even with the most perfect FS of the competition, she'll only move up to fifth, if the previous GPs can be used as predictors.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Things aren't looking up for Gao to make a permanent mark before Nats...she's in seventh after the TEB SP, about 11 points from first. Even with the most perfect FS of the competition, she'll only move up to fifth, if the previous GPs can be used as predictors.

Well, she only had one good competition on home turf. I don't know why people were thinking she was instantly a favorite for the nationals podium.

 

[R.D.]

Things aren't looking up for Gao to make a permanent mark before Nats...she's in seventh after the TEB SP, about 11 points from first. Even with the most perfect FS of the competition, she'll only move up to fifth, if the previous GPs can be used as predictors.

I'm very tempted to throw out a big "I told you so" to the folks who instantly jumped aboard the Gao Express, but let's first see how she responds in the free skate. She's likely taken herself out of GPF contention but crazier things have happened...

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think Ashley, deservedly, is now guaranteed a World spot, regardless of what happens at Nationals. She skates well so often now that I think it's safe to assume that if she bombs at Nationals it's an aberration.

 

[ForeverFish]

I'm very tempted to throw out a big "I told you so" to the folks who instantly jumped aboard the Gao Express, but let's first see how she responds in the free skate. She's likely taken herself out of GPF contention but crazier things have happened...

Actually, she took fourth in the FS and overall--not shabby at all, considering who made the podium. However, I don't think that it was enough in the end...Wagner, Tuk, Lipnitskaia, and Korpi are in for the GPF. At NHK, only a disaster can prevent Suzuki and Asada from taking those last two spots, and failing that, Nagasu or Zawadzki will be the next best options.

 

[ForeverFish]

I think Ashley, deservedly, is now guaranteed a World spot, regardless of what happens at Nationals. She skates well so often now that I think it's safe to assume that if she bombs at Nationals it's an aberration.

Is that how it works? First and second at Nats are sent to Worlds, aren't they?

 

[Tonichelle]

Is that how it works? First and second at Nats are sent to Worlds, aren't they?

Only 1st place is guarunteed the spot... tradition has the medal winners going, but that doesn't mean they have to (see ladies nationals 2008)

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Only 1st place is guarunteed the spot... tradition has the medal winners going, but that doesn't mean they have to (see ladies nationals 2008)

I think especially how the last few years have gone, and with the Olympics next year, the USFSA is going to send the strongest overall skaters. Fortunately, the best usually place well enough to get sent anyway but I think the USFSA recognizes leaving Jeremy off the team a few years back was a mistake that they don't want to make again.

 

[herios]

I'm very tempted to throw out a big "I told you so" to the folks who instantly jumped aboard the Gao Express, but let's first see how she responds in the free skate. She's likely taken herself out of GPF contention but crazier things have happened...

Don't get to a hasty conclusion. Gao so far had only one mistake in her 2 GP events, the 3t/3t combo in the SP at TEB, which took her out of the competition.
In comparison, Gold who's bandwagon is full house and there are no empty seats left on, had only one very good skate, 1 so , so, 1 not so good and one bad. The balance thusfar tips towards Gao in the GP.

I am just sayin...