- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
^ Of course, that is assuming that Wagner and Gold are shoo-ins for spots 1 and 2, which is no guarantee in itself either. Particularly for Gold, but if this year is any indication, Wagner is not invincible either.
Zawadzki and Gao are the other two in contention...I'd give Hicks and Nagasu slim, outside chances. Czisny will be the "Cohen 2010" of this cycle so to speak - plagued by recent injury and time off, she's a complete wildcard depending on her condition, but likely to crumble under pressure regardless.
I wouldn't assume that Wagner and Gold are locks for the first two spots, but I'd put their chances of making the Olympic team above 50% -- above 80% that one of them will be US champion. Wagner has the best artistry of the American ladies (excepting perhaps Czisny, whose jumps are notoriously inconsistent). Gold is by far the best technician. The judges know this, and I believe they'll be scored accordingly.
Cohen in 2010 wasn't in a completely deplorable state, as she still managed to place 4th at Nationals, though she missed making the team. Czisny's chance of getting the third spot is minuscule; if she doesn't show up in good form, she may not even crack the top ten domestically.
We will have to see what Nagasu looks like on the GP before assessing her chances at the Olympic team, but this past Nationals wasn't a great indicator of her ability.