Thanks Joe, for the interesting topic.
Ultimately, I think that matching your strengths to COP is the coach's and the choreographer's job.
That said, I took a look at the SP scores for all 3 US men at NHK. All skated quite well in the SP, without falls or serious mistakes. I didn't use the LP for comparison because Weiss skated quite badly, and Tim is under the process of tinkering with this program as he gets his skills back, so it changes every time he performs it...with the result that it is not as good as his SP.
In the SP for PCS:
SS TR Perf Chor Int
Weir 7.75 7.75 8.00 8.00 8.00
Goebel 7.00 7.25 6.75 7.00 6.75
Weiss 6.75 6.50 6.75 6.75 6.50
While it is clear that Johnny has superior skating skills components, Tim has massively improved. He is now doing better than Weiss even in Choreography and Interpretation. Tim's PCS marks are about the same as Honda's at NHK, and are definitely competitive. It is worth remembering that Honda's two third place world finishes were as much because of the old second mark. I hope this trend will continue for Tim. Tim's biggest deficit is in Performance/Execution, When you look at the components from the ISU pages, it's not surprising that this is Tim's worst item, since it contains Carriage, and everyone slags off Tim's carriage, particularly his rounded back in the sit spin.
Performance/Execution
Criteria:
Physical, emotional, and intellectual involvement
Carriage
Style and individuality/personality
Clarity of movement
Variety and contrast
Projection
Total scores: TES PCS
Weir 74.05 37.70 36.25
Goebel 72.20 37.30 34.90
Tim is less than two points behind Weir, here in the SP, 1.5 in PCS and .4 in TES. His jumps were 4t2t,3A, and 3F. Johnny did 3A, 3Lz3T and 3F.
Really, all Tim may need to do is get his 4/3 back. If Johnny leaves his SP as is, Tim can add 2.7 points that way. If Tim wants extra points, upgrading his straight line step sequence to level 2 is the way to go. He does a level 2 step sequence in his LP, so he can definitely do one. And the same for his final combo spin, currently Level1, but he does two level Two spins in the LP, so he can definitely do that as well. His lutz technique looks better than it did...he might want to put the 3lz in for the 3F. His GOE's were positive for all elements, his best being 0.6 for the 3A (and this is a huge improvement from past years, where his 3A tended to be not only unreliable, but a bit scratchy when performed.)
Johnny has to get a 4/3 in to do much better for points in the SP, or learn a 3F3t3Lp. Why? Because an axel jump is required, but the 3A cannot be repeated in the SP. As a result, the best scores are obtained with the 3A, 3Lz single jumps he is already doing. All he can do is upgrade his combo. And since he has yet to put in a single 4t, putting in a 4t3t is risky. The 4t2t comes out the same as the 3F3t he is already doing. He could also upgrade his circular step sequence. Johnny's GOE's were positive, except for his 3F which was -.2, as he lips somewhat. +1.0 for his final combination spin was his best GOE.
Weiss in is trouble with respect to Johnny on PCS a lot, and even behind Tim, and with respect to both Tim and Johnny on TES. His 3A had a GOE of -1.8, and that is no help at all. He isn't doing a quad, and his PCS scores aren't that good either. He has a long way to go.