The Grand Prix Strategy

[hockeyfan228]

Thread getting interesting but still no definite answer to who has the say on where a skater must go. However, there seems to be an outline. Based on World Podium finishers, skaters will be given priority for their assignments; followed by 4-6; followed by 7-9; followed by 10-12

The rules make the selection quite clear; last year's were:

Each host Federation chooses up to three skaters from their country for their event, with no more than one selection from each of the four groups (1-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12), although the Japanese Federation has not allways followed this. Once the six Federations choose for their events, there is a draw to determine in what order the Federations will choose among the remaining skaters, first choosing who ever is left and eligible from 1-3, then whoever is left from 4-6, through 7-9, and 10-12, until each has two events. Then the skaters who haven't been chosen and who have World Rankings in the top 24, Personal Bests in the top 24, or medallists from JGPF and Jr. Worlds (who want to compete in Seniors, with Jr. Pairs being able to compete in both). After that, skaters with one selection or anyone with a top 75 Personal Best can be chosen.

If the rules are the same this year, then:

Japanese Federation must choose between Ando and Asada (1-3) for NHK; they can't have both. They can choose Nakano (4-6) and one other skater. For arguments skate, lets say they take Nakano and one of Ando/Asada.

Canada can choose Rochette (10-12) and two other skaters. (If Hughes doesn't compete, then Rochette moves up to 9 and is in the 7-9 group.)

US can choose Meissner (4-6) and Hughes (7-9) and one other skater, or they can choose three completely different skaters. For arguments sake, assume they take Meissner and Hughes (if Hughes will compete in her first year of college. If she doesn't, then 10-12 move up to 9-11, and Sokolova becomes the new 12).

Unless someone in top 12 at Worlds doesn't skate GP (ex: Hughes goes to college and doesn't compete), and Sokolova doesn't move up to #12, Russia, France, and China can choose up to any three women from their country. Otherwise, Russia, if Sokolova moves to 12 and Russia chooses Sokolova before the rounds begin, has a 10-12 pick. (Given Piseev's remarks, it's not clear if he'll chose her.)

The rest of the selections are according to the draw. For example, if the draw is

China
Russia
Japan
US
Canada
France

Then China chooses a skater from 1-3, Russia does the same, Japan skips a turn because they already have one from 1-3, US does the same, Canada does the same, France gets whoever is left.

Then China chooses a skater from 4-6, Russia does the same, Japan skips a turn (Nakano), US does the same, Canada does the same, France gets whoever is left.

In the next round, China, Russia, Japan each choose one from 7-9, US skips (Hughes); if Hughes doesn't skate GP, then US picks a 7-9 skater, Canada chooses 7-9 unless Rochette moves up to 9 because Hughes doesn't skate GP, in which case Canada skips, France gets whoever is left.

In the next round, China, Russia, Japan, and the US chooses one from 10-12, unless Sokolova moves up and Russia has chosen her, in which case they skip a turn, Canada skips (Rochette) unless Rochette moves up to 9, and France gets whoever is left.

In the next rounds, each country chooses someone who is guaranteed one spot -- Plushenko is the top prize here, if Russia doesn't take him as a host nation -- , as long as there aren't more than two (three?) from any one country, three from their own, until everyone guaranteed one gets one, and then they can fill the rosters by giving seeded pairs a third, skaters with guaranteed one -- ex: Plushenko -- a second, or skaters with top 75 PB's a first or second.

 

[fsf9012]

My bet is:

Mao:
NHK (definitely!)
CoC (If she competes in CoR, she'll skate back to back.)

Miki:
SA (At first, I thought SA wanted Mao but she is the last year's winner and the 'reigning world champ.)
CoR (Mao gets CoC.)

Yu-Na:
SC (She is now Canada-based and her coach is Brian Orser.)
TEB (last year's winner. They'll be willing to invite her!)

 

[Mathman]

Thank a bunch, Hockeyfan.

I am still trying to figure out how there is any strategy available to the skaters. The event organizers tap you, you go.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

It is still not clear to me what opportunities a skater like Kimmie has to form a "strategy" for the Grand Prix. As I understand it (?), the assignments for the top six at worlds are made by a random draw, and there is little the skaters can do about it one way or another.

If Kimmie could somehow wriggle out of Skate America (being afraid of Miki Ando), then she will have to face Yu-na Kim at Skate Canada or Mao Asada at Trophee Lalique. In fact, she will have to face one or another of these three at both of her events, no matter which two events she is assigned to.

We are not sure what the top 3 skaters will choose. They have the most strategic advantage. That's clear to me. Will two of the Japanese ladies select NHK? Avoiding the top three in any event will be strategic for the next group of skaters who are able to choose. Also avoiding long trips is another factor for strategy.

As to facing top seeds as an inevitable factor, It didn't work that way last year in CoC and CoR unless you consider Kostner as a top skater in her worst year.

The bottom lines here are still: Will it be different this year? Will there be a draw? Will the Feds propose to the ISU as to what events their skater(s) should go? Will the ISU be firm in deciding where skaters should go based on the draw and not by Feds pressure?

I don't think anything is clear. While I believe there could be strategy played here as it is in All sports, I believe the system will do its best to prevent strategy.

The top 3 are on the road to make 30 points, the next 3 could get 26 points, and the rest do not have a chance. Of course there is always the debut of Caroline Zhang.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Thanks Hockeyfan for the clarity on how it all worked last year. Will it be the same this year? Apparently, the Feds do play a big role in this. I think we should know in June.

So if it remains as last year:

SA gets 3 US Skaters and 3 national skaters each from Canada, China, France, Japan and Russia.

Each host Federation chooses up to three skaters from their country for their event, with no more than one selection from each of the four groups (1-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12), although the Japanese Federation has not allways followed this. Once the six Federations choose for their events, there is a draw to determine in what order the Federations will choose among the remaining skaters, first choosing who ever is left and eligible from 1-3, then whoever is left from 4-6, through 7-9, and 10-12, until each has two events. Then the skaters who haven't been chosen and who have World Rankings in the top 24, Personal Bests in the top 24, or medallists from JGPF and Jr. Worlds (who want to compete in Seniors, with Jr. Pairs being able to compete in both). After that, skaters with one selection or anyone with a top 75 Personal Best can be chosen.

Apparently, from the above, The Feds are still in the game and able to choose additional places for their skaters. So it would appear that there is strategy in that the Feds can play around after the Host countries make their initial selections.

I believe the above is a question of the power of the Feds which leaves out Switzerland, Finland, et al., and the ISU just gives its blessing. I actually like this system because it does give a modicum of playing strategy.

Again, will it be the same this year? Stay tuned.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

We are not sure what the top 3 skaters will choose. They have the most strategic advantage. That's clear to me. Will two of the Japanese ladies select NHK?

My understanding from all the posts on this thread is that the top three skaters do not get to choose anything.

My understanding is that whichever federation gets lucky in the draw, they choose who they want.

As I understand the rules, no Japanese lady or any other skater can select NHK. NHK selects who they want, and they cannot choose both Mao and Miki (no event can have more than one of the top three).

However, NHK could select, say, Mao from the top three and Nakano from 4-6 (and I think they will).

I think the only leverage an individual skater has is if they don't want to skate in their own country's event (like Weir), then the federation might honor that request and not invite him, leaving him free to be chosen by someone else. It also seems possible that national federations will make gentlemen's agreements with each other, like Skate Canada might tell Cup of Russia, "Gee, we really, really want Yu-na Kim, so don't select her if you choose ahead of us, OK?"

The only person that I see as having any leverage at all is Plushenko. He can just say, I'll skate at Cup of Russia and I won't skate anywhere else. Since he is not a seeded skater the ISU cannot force him to skate if he doesn't want to.

(This is a very interesting discussion. I am not 100% of all the possible nuances. Thanks to Joe for starting this thread. )

 

[Hsuhs]

I think the only leverage an individual skater has is if they don't want to skate in their own country's event (like Weir), then the federation might honor that request and not invite him, leaving him free to be chosen by someone else.

It's not like Johnny doesn't want to. It's b/c his coach has usually a couple more pupils skating in SA. BTW, I would advise Johnny to do SA this year. He's an American skater after all.

 

[Mathman]

It's not like Johnny doesn't want to. It's b/c his coach has usually a couple more pupils skating in SA. BTW, I would advise Johnny to do SA this year. He's an American skater after all.

I had heard that it was because Johnny preferred not like to compete so early in the season. Is it really a handicap to Johnny to have to share his coach's time with other skaters at the event?

I have a feeling that Skate America would choose Joubert as their 1-3 guy if possible, and will choose Lysacek for sure.

 

[Hsuhs]

Is it really a handicap to Johnny to have to share his coach's time with other skaters at the event?

I think it is. I remember reading about Johnny being mad b/c his coach couldn't manage it in time for Campbells, which is not even a real competition.

and will choose Lysacek for sure.

Well, if there is Evan, there can't be Johnny at the same time.

 

[Mathman]

Well, if there is Evan, there can't be Johnny at the same time.

I was thinking in terms of Joe's suggestion that a skater might try to maximize his chances of making the GP final by putting off early season confrontations with rivals that might knock him out of contention. (Not that a different event, with, say, Lambiel and Ota, would be any easier.)

 

[hockeyfan228]

Well, if there is Evan, there can't be Johnny at the same time.

From the standpoint of the rules, they can, even if one of the top 7 decides to not skate GP. Lysacek, finishing 5th, is in the 4-6 group, and Weir, finishing 8th, is in the 7-9 group.

Japan could choose both Oda and Takahashi, as Takahashi is in the 1-3 seed group, and Oda in the 7-9 group. France could pick both Joubert (1-3 seed group) and Preaubert (10-12 group).

Pairs are harder to predict in terms of participation, but of the top four, only Shen/Zhao are sure not to skate next year, which means that Zhang/Zhang will go to the 4-6 group, leaving the Chinese Fed to choose Pang/Tong (1-3 seed group) and Zhang/Zhang (4-6 seed group). Dube Davison move into the 4-6 seed group.

The tricky part is for Russia: if either Inoue/Baldwin retire or Marcoux/Buntin split (not by any means official, but there have been murmurs), then Kawaguchi/Smirnov and Murkhortova/Trankov will both end up in the 7-9 group. If both I/B retire and M/B split, then K/S will end up as the 6th seed, and M/T will end up in the 7-9 group. (And Pylkina/Hogner will end up as #12).

Dance is also tricky, because any or none of Denkova/Staviyski, Dubreuil/Lauzon, and Delobel/Schoenfelder might retire. With Virtue/Moir and Davis/White between them, Domnina/Shabalin and Khoklova/Novitski will be three apart, and never in the same group, meaning Russia can choose both for CoR. Same with Davis/White and Gregory/Petukhov, and Belbin/Agosto and Davis/White, with at least two teams that will skate between them. That would be some SA dance lineup, if USFS chooses all three.

I read somewhere that the National Champion does get some say in whether they are assigned to Skate America. (I don't know if this, if true, extends to who they don't want skating at Skate America. Unless, of course, USFS draws low, and they get whoever is left by default.)

It would be ironic if there are enough retirements for the Zaretskis to move to #12, get two GP assignments, and then not be able to compete at Euros or Worlds, because Chait/Sakhnovski are coming back next year, and Israel has only one spot at each.

Chait/Sakhnovski should be back for GP, making them the strongest non-seed, like Plushenko in Men.

 

[gkelly]

It's not like Johnny doesn't want to. It's b/c his coach has usually a couple more pupils skating in SA. BTW, I would advise Johnny to do SA this year. He's an American skater after all.

I had heard that it was because Johnny preferred not like to compete so early in the season. Is it really a handicap to Johnny to have to share his coach's time with other skaters at the event?

Ha. I think the quote in the first paragraph should read "It's b/c his coach usually has a couple more pupils skating in South Atlantics. BTW, I would advise Johnny to do Skate America this year."

Gets confusing with all these SA competitions at the same time of year. Especially since both South Atlantics and Skate America are in Pennsylvania this year. But, fortunately for any coach who may have skaters at both, a week apart. Still, it would mean splitting her focus in preparations before each event.

 

[Sylvia]

Gets confusing with all these SA competitions at the same time of year. Especially since both South Atlantics and Skate America are in Pennsylvania this year. But, fortunately for any coach who may have skaters at both, a week apart. Still, it would mean splitting her focus in preparations before each event.

Actually, more of Priscilla Hill's other students have competed at North Atlantic Regionals in recent years. Norths are being held 2 weeks before Skate America this year.

P.S. I was hoping/anticipating that hockeyfan228 would show up in this thread.

 

[chuckm]

It's likely that Oda or Takahashi (or possibly both) will compete at SA, along with Lysacek. It is better for Weir NOT to compete at SA, and he has never wanted to do so anyway.

I am hoping to go to SA this year, and I would have liked to see Weir skate, but I am 100% sure he won't be there.

 

[chuckm]

Does anyone think Emily Hughes will participate in the GP this year? She will be starting her college career at some top-rank university this year. Even if she decides to continue to compete while in college, it's hard to see her taking what amounts to a week off for each of two GP events, right off the bat.

 

[hockeyfan228]

If I had to bet without knowing her, her coach, or her family, I would say "no" since SA is already into the semester. She might wait to make a decision closer to the July/August deadline. I wouldn't be surprised to see her skate in the first cheezefest. Could pay for a chunk of her semester. That would be a way to work one's way through school

What I don't see is her accepting, starting school, and then deciding to pull out. That doesn't seem to be the way the Hughes family works when it comes to commitments.

 

[Hsuhs]

Ha. I think the quote in the first paragraph should read "It's b/c his coach usually has a couple more pupils skating in South Atlantics.

You're right, South Atlantics is a more probable obstacle.

From the standpoint of the rules, they can, even if one of the top 7 decides to not skate GP. Lysacek, finishing 5th, is in the 4-6 group, and Weir, finishing 8th, is in the 7-9 group.

Oh, it's good. There is a chance then.

It is better for Weir NOT to compete at SA, and he has never wanted to do so anyway.

I think, there is a first time for everything, and Johnny should do it this year. He can hold on against Carmen-less Evan.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I am hoping for Stephane to get Skate Canada and Cup of China as his GP assignments. Takahashi to Skate America and NHL, Lambiel to Skate Canada and Cup of China, and Joubert to Eric Bompard and Cup of Russia. That is what I am hoping for.

 

[chuckm]

If I had to bet without knowing her [Emily Hughes], her coach, or her family, I would say "no" since SA is already into the semester. She might wait to make a decision closer to the July/August deadline. I wouldn't be surprised to see her skate in the first cheezefest. Could pay for a chunk of her semester. That would be a way to work one's way through school

I agree that a cheesefest performance (Campbell's) is a possibility for Emily---that is if there IS a cheesefest. USFS needs a TV contract, or there won't be any more cheesefests.

What I don't see is her accepting, starting school, and then deciding to pull out. That doesn't seem to be the way the Hughes family works when it comes to commitments.

Sarah did exactly that. She did one year at Yale, then took a leave of absence to skate in SOI. She also took a semester off to go to Torino with the Hughes family.

I think it is entirely possible that Emily might try to skate part-time for a couple of seasons while attending college, then take a year off to take another shot at the Olympics. I don't know how successful that will be for her, though.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Sarah did exactly that. She did one year at Yale, then took a leave of absence to skate in SOI. She also took a semester off to go to Torino with the Hughes family.

I think it is entirely possible that Emily might try to skate part-time for a couple of seasons while attending college, then take a year off to take another shot at the Olympics. I don't know how successful that will be for her, though.

I think it was a case of her heart being pulled in alot of different directions. She ended up IMHO spreading herself out over too many pursuits, with her foot half in and half out too many doors. Atleast the skating aspects of it-her final amateur season, and her skating on SOI, seemed to show the effects of not being concise enough on what you really want to be doing.