Upset Choices for US/Canadian Nationals

macy

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
I am not a fan of upsets however, if Gracie were to medal, I would be one happy man.
i would also be elated, but i think realistically if she were to skate clean top 6 or 7 would be doable.
 

mrrice

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 9, 2014
I agree. If she makes the top 10, she will make the broadcast and that would be HUGE for her.
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Why is Andrew T. a surprise?:oops:

Was he not fifth last year? Was he not in third after the SP? My boy:cheer: ...

... I was thinking of the pewter, which is a medal as far as USFS is concerned ...

I like Torgashev, and I would not be completely shocked if he placed in the top four at 2021 Nats.

But I would be pleasantly surprised -- because I would consider it a surprise if the silver/bronze/pewter medalists were not some permutation of Tomoki, Vincent, and Jason (all of whom I like as well).

I would be happy for all four (plus Nathan) to make the U.S. podium, but it is not possible.



I hope we'll see two clean programs from Andrew... I'm just slightly concerned that Raf usually needs 2 years when working with a new skater because his technique is so different. So I don't know if they are in the process of retooling Andrew's technique which might affect consistency of the jumps etc.

OTOH, Mariah Bell (who originally was an alternate) won the silver at 2016 Skate America after only a couple of months with Raf. And placed first in the FS.

I am not trying to create unrealistic expectations for Torgashev -- just sayin' that I think it is hard to make a prediction one way or the other as to what kind of difference his coaching change will make at Nats.
 

AlimaAsh

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
I don’t follow US or Canadian skaters at too closely so I can’t give specific examples. However, for somebody to cause an upset in the scene like Mark, they would have to be seriously *unknown* on a national level. They can be a person who performed well on city or small regional competitions, but hasn’t hit it on bigger competitions.

This is what happened to Mark, who had to recover from an injury for a couple of seasons, and only started to jump quads this season (he landed one 4T< in competition last year, but afaik nothing more). That’s why he was virtually unknown. In hindsight, he had very good momentum going in with two wins and 6/6 quad sals landed from two competitions. So it wasn’t too surprising if you would look into the momentum and stability of particular elements, so maybe that might help in the quest for a fun prediction for the US or Canadian nationals :).
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I expect that one US Ladies medal will go to someone unexpected, because I don't think Alysa will be back to top form by Nationals. Audrey seems to be a good pick based on her last outing.
 

skylark

Gazing at a Glorious Great Lakes sunset
Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 12, 2014
A real come-out-of-nowhere medal in US pairs would be pewter for Katie McBeath and Nate Bartholomay, who are in their first season together.

Nate won the pewter with Deanna Stellato in their first season together. That was four years ago, though, and US Pairs field is quite a lot deeper now and more diverse in terms of styles and strengths.

ETA: this is a neat idea for a thread. But I'll be happy if all our pairs skate brilliantly!
 

snowflake

I enjoy what I like
Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 10, 2008
But I think the conventional wisdom is that the top three places will be Nathan, and then Vincent and Jason in either order.

If you discount the pewter, I think Andrew (or Alex) snagging a medal would surprise a lot of people, because that would mean they've dislodged one of the favorites.

Me too can’t think of anyone winning over Nathan, Jason or Vincent. I had hopes last season that the new seniors could challenge Vincent/Jason for the excitement. Especially Tomoki looked promising. Him, Andrew, Alexei and Camden skated well now and then but never really got it all together.

Nathan is invincible, Vincent young with quads improving on other elements and Jason when he includes his quad; not a chance for an upset medalist beating him.

Actually I can’t see anyone challenging these three for the olympic team either. Someone suddenly improving a lot with new confidence? or Malinin?

What’s the story behind US having a pewter medal? Better than be given a potato though :biggrin:

I hope there will be a way to watch them while they are competing at a good time for me. All of them are exciting to watch :dance3:
 

TontoK

Hot Tonto
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 28, 2013
Country
United-States
Me too can’t think of anyone winning over Nathan, Jason or Vincent. I had hopes last season that the new seniors could challenge Vincent/Jason for the excitement. Especially Tomoki looked promising. Him, Andrew, Alexei and Camden skated well now and then but never really got it all together.

Nathan is invincible, Vincent young with quads improving on other elements and Jason when he includes his quad; not a chance for an upset medalist beating him.

Actually I can’t see anyone challenging these three for the olympic team either. Someone suddenly improving a lot with new confidence? or Malinin?

What’s the story behind US having a pewter medal? Better than be given a potato though :biggrin:

I hope there will be a way to watch them while they are competing at a good time for me. All of them are exciting to watch :dance3:

I know this will make a lot of fans defensive, but Jason could be vulnerable to an upset. I'm not saying it's likely, but it is more possible now than it has been. And I say this as someone who really enjoys the direction his skating has taken in the past few years.

No one is going to beat him on the basis of beautiful skating, but in the past there have been far fewer threats to overwhelm him with base value than he has to contend with now. Base value isn't everything, but it is also not "nothing."

All of this is said with the caveat that we have no real idea of where these skaters are this season. Instagram clips are not competitions. The other skaters would have to deliver quads and skate cleanly. For that matter, Jason may unveil quads of his own, which would certainly effect the calculus.

As for Vincent, he looked good in his early competition, but I wasn't really overcome with how great it was. We'll see where he is now.

As in all things, I'm a "show me" kind of guy, not a "tell me" sort. I'm not emotionally invested in any skater - none of them are family. I am ready to see cards on the table.

Malinin will not be at US Nationals. He was sick during the qualifying. I complained about it on another thread, but have been convinced that the rules are the rules. So be it, better luck and better health next year, Ilia.

My understanding is that the pewter medal is a continuation of the concept that the top four placements in qualifying events are advanced. Little shaky on that, someone can probably provide more. I tend to discount it as a real medal, but I'm sure it means something to those who earn it.

I am excited to see how all this plays out.
 

snowflake

I enjoy what I like
Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 10, 2008
I know this will make a lot of fans defensive, but Jason could be vulnerable to an upset. I'm not saying it's likely, but it is more possible now than it has been. And I say this as someone who really enjoys the direction his skating has taken in the past few years.

Really? I got the impression he has had great trainings on much ice time during the pandemic. And being with his chosen coaches since 6(?) months counts a lot.
As for Vincent, he looked good in his early competition, but I wasn't really overcome with how great it was. We'll see where he is now.
Vincent is perhaps more vulnerable. He couldn't or didn't wish to go to Canada to train with his chosen coach. But I still believe he has found other good options.
Malinin will not be at US Nationals. He was sick during the qualifying. I complained about it on another thread, but have been convinced that the rules are the rules. So be it, better luck and better health next year, Ilia.

I know. I was thinking of next season.


I am excited to see how all this plays out.
Me too :) though hard to know after not seeing much of them so far of course...
 

el henry

Fangirl of men’s spirals and split jumps
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Joined
Mar 3, 2014
Country
United-States
Andrew T. is not listed for the US Nats practice groups. He must have withdrawn. (Yes I am spamming all the threads. I haz a sad)

😭😭😭

OK, he won’t be a surprise😔
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
Hiwatashi replacing a favourite on the podium and Alyssa Liu pulling off Scherbakova with gold would make my day

in Canadian, tbh, I wouldn’t mind seeing Gogolev rally
 

Roo87

Medalist
Joined
Nov 12, 2017
For Canada, like others have said, Ice Dance and pairs is pretty predictable. The men could be interesting, I'd love Keegan to get his first Canadian title, he truly deserves it. There's so many great Canadian men, Nam, Roman, Joseph, Stephen, Nic, Conrad, that if they skate clean can threaten for a medal. My money would be on Roman and Joseph because they have beautiful PCS. The women is the most unpredictable, similar to last year. All I'd like to see is some clean 3-3's in the short and free and I'll be happy. Gabby has been posting a lot of skating videos lately, and she's still our best bet to keep 2 spots for the Olympics (but we don't really need 2 spots?), but we can't count on her for that at this point.

For the USA the top 3 men is mostly decided, although Jason would have to be clean to snag the bronze (assuming Nathan and Vincent have all the rotated/landed quads). Clean Jason would probably still get bronze without a quad, but he really should go for the quad in competition, it's the only way to get it consistent. The women have basically been decided by USFS, and if Bell is clean they want to give her the gold. IMO Bradie is the better overall skater, but my opinion doesn't matter. Shin in a beautiful skater, and if the other 2 make mistakes she can rise above them. There's also Alyssa and Amber who could take a medal if others fault. I would actually love for Alyssa to podium, I think it would be a huge letdown for her after winning 2 titles, especially leading up to 2022. The quads and 3A's will be necessary to compete with the Russians/Japanese, so hopefully she can get them back. The top 3 in Ice dance is mostly a given, but Pairs will be interesting, would love Jessica and Brian to win!
 
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moonvine

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 14, 2007
Andrew T. is not listed for the US Nats practice groups. He must have withdrawn. (Yes I am spamming all the threads. I haz a sad)

😭😭😭

OK, he won’t be a surprise😔
Oh no. I hope he is ok. I can emphasize. I remember when I was trying to read GS pre 2019 Nationals because I was terrified Gracie would withdraw and almost wrecking my car in the Arby’s drive thru line when she did.
 

moonvine

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 14, 2007
For Canada, like others have said, Ice Dance and pairs is pretty predictable. The men could be interesting, I'd love Keegan to get his first Canadian title, he truly deserves it. There's so many great Canadian men, Nam, Roman, Joseph, Stephen, Nic, Conrad, that if they skate clean can threaten for a medal. My money would be on Roman and Joseph because they have beautiful PCS. The women is the most unpredictable, similar to last year. All I'd like to see is some clean 3-3's in the short and free and I'll be happy. Gabby has been posting a lot of skating videos lately, and she's still our best bet to keep 2 spots for the Olympics (but we don't really need 2 spots?), but we can't count on her for that at this point.

For the USA the top 3 men is mostly decided, although Jason would have to be clean to snag the bronze (assuming Nathan and Vincent have all the rotated/landed quads). Clean Jason would probably still get bronze without a quad, but he really should go for the quad in competition, it's the only way to get it consistent. The women have basically been decided by USFS, and if Bell is clean they want to give her the gold. IMO Bradie is the better overall skater, but my opinion doesn't matter. Shin in a beautiful skater, and if the other 2 make mistakes she can rise above them. There's also Alyssa and Amber who could take a medal if others fault. I would actually love for Alyssa to podium, I think it would be a huge letdown for her after winning 2 titles, especially leading up to 2022. The quads and 3A's will be necessary to compete with the Russians/Japanese, so hopefully she can get them back. The top 3 in Ice dance is mostly a given, but Pairs will be interesting, would love Jessica and Brian to win!
Yes! This is the year for my Keegan!!
 

TontoK

Hot Tonto
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 28, 2013
Country
United-States
Yes! This is the year for my Keegan!!
Also to @Roo87

I thought Keegan was out of Canadian Nats? Or whatever they're calling it this year...

On the Canadian skaters thread, it's been established that both he and Gogolev are out because of quarantine issues.

Or maybe I'm behind the news cycle. That's happened before...
 
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