US Olympic Team Announced

[HeadBanger]

Absolutely. I wonder if there is some policy that gives preference to the national champ and Mariah chose to do both, because it doesn't seem like Alysa would pass up a guaranteed medal there. We're obviously splitting men, and I figured that dance would be split also so I don't know how this is going to work.

They had a policy in 2018, but it didn't give the national champions first dibs. The Shibs got to choose and skate both, even though they didn't win at nationals. I think based on the Grand Prix.

 

[readernick]

They had a policy in 2018, but it didn't give the national champions first dibs. The Shibs got to choose and skate both, even though they didn't win at nationals. I think based on the Grand Prix.

As I understand it, based on reading the USFS documents. The athletes in the higher priority groups get first choice. So, Nathan and the Ice dancers who were in priority group one would get first choice of which, if any, segments they want to skate. Next, the skaters in group two which would include K/F, Vincent, and Alysa would be asked for their preferences. This is why I don't understand the choice of Karen for the TE. If she has been chosen, it is either blatant favoritism ( for her coach, not Karen particularly) or Alysa was forced to decline for some reason. Even if Alysa declined, Mariah likely has a better BOW argument to make for selection over Karen. The other athletes who appear to be competing Nathan, Vincent, H/D, C/B and K/ F were the highest ranked skaters based on priority groups. Karen's selection isn't in harmony with the published information.

 

[el henry]

This article on Alysa's coach Viktor Pfeifer says that they are leaving on February 4 for Beijing. The article is dated Jan. 25:

Viktor Pfeifer als Trainer von US-Talent bei Olympia

Dreimal ist der Frastanzer Viktor Pfeifer als Eiskunstläufer bei Olympischen Winterspielen gewesen. Nun kommt in Peking ein viertes Mal als Trainer dazu: Im Rekordtempo hat es der 34-Jährige zum Haupt-Coach von US-Hoffnung Alysa Liu gebracht.

vorarlberg.orf.at

 

[jenaj]

This article on Alysa's coach Viktor Pfeifer says that they are leaving on February 4 for Beijing. The article is dated Jan. 25:

Viktor Pfeifer als Trainer von US-Talent bei Olympia

Dreimal ist der Frastanzer Viktor Pfeifer als Eiskunstläufer bei Olympischen Winterspielen gewesen. Nun kommt in Peking ein viertes Mal als Trainer dazu: Im Rekordtempo hat es der 34-Jährige zum Haupt-Coach von US-Hoffnung Alysa Liu gebracht.

vorarlberg.orf.at

According to Match.tv, Mariah isn't doing the Team Event so Karen is doing both SP & FS

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matchtv.ru

How would this publication have advance information on who the US is using for the Team Event? If they are right, I’d call it a lucky guess. I agree with those who say Karen doesn’t make sense. There are published criteria for team event selection and Karen would appear to be third in line for the TE, assuming either or both Alysa and Mariah expressed indicated a preference to do the event.

 

[gravy]

I'm shocked people here actually think Alysa Liu is in the conversation for the team event. Her scores this season are on a downward trajectory, getting worse from event to event. She was also yanked from her training environment like 6 weeks before Nationals. USFS is stupid but not stupid enough to include a girl who has been incredibly vocal about how much she hates skating at the moment, how unhappy she is in her current environment, and how she can't wait to return to her normal life. She doesn't have any ultra-C elements anymore and her current jumps are prone to under rotations. Karen and Mariah are also prone to URs but their PCS are easily superior to Alysa's who doesn't offer anything without her 3A or quads... add in the baggage of being severely unhappy in Colorado.

I think people here are still stuck in 2019 when she had a triple axel and quad lutz. Those days are over, she URs her basic triples now, and her components are the worst of the 3 Americans being sent. Not sure why people even think she's in the conversation.

 

[dorispulaski]

The most important thing in choosing skaters for a country's two weakest disciplines is international short program score, because those weak links can lose the most points in the SP. Points are based on placings rather than absolute numbers.

So let's look at the US ladies and US pairs from that point of view. First pairs:

Season's Best Scores in Pairs:

http://results.isu.org/isujsstat/sb2021-22/sbtspsp.htm

The upside of the two pairs is almost identical:

10	Ashley CAIN-GRIBBLE / Timothy LEDUC	USA	ISU GP NHK Trophy 2021	12/11/2021	70.75
11	Alexa KNIERIM / Brandon FRAZIER	USA	ISU GP Internationaux de France 2021	19/11/2021	70.15

When you look at best scores of pairs from other countries in the team event, if everyone skates their best, any of the three Russian pairs will beat either American pair, as will either Chinese pair. The pairs with whom they are below, but not massively below, are Miura/Kihara from Japan (best SP score at NHK in Japan 73.98.
and James and Radford at Internationaux de France of 71.84 ).

Then the low side of the scores for the two teams is their worst SP score this year in any competition, vs best score of other competitors possible in the team event:

Worst scores of the two American pairs:

Knierim/Frazier's competitions this year. Their downside is about 66, and has not changed over the season, except the effect of COVID on Frazier is not known at this time:

2022 US Nationals	WD Due to Covid
2021 Golden Spin	2 (66.44)	5 (120.25)	5 (186.69)
2021 Internationaux de France	4 (70.15)	3 (131.54)	3 (201.69)
2021 Skate America	5 (66.37)	2 (136.60)	4 (202.97)
2021 John Nicks Pairs Challenge	1 (76.09)	1 (136.46)	1 (212.55)
2021 Cranberry Cup	2 (69.83)	2 (136.04)	2 (205.87

Cain-Gribble/LeDuc looks clearly worse on the downside, due to COVID earlier in the season, but they are trending up, also clearly. Also, an apples to apples high US score favors Cain-Gribble/LeDuc, whose SP at US Nationals was really better than either team had skated all year

2022 US Nationals	1 (79.39)	1 (145.84)	1 (225.23)
NHK Trophy 2021	4 (70.75)	4 (132.04)	4 (202.79)
Skate Canada 2021	6 (61.68)	2 (128.22)	3 (189.90)
Finlandia Trophy 2021	6 (64.98)	3 (128.02)	3 (193.00)
Autumn Classic 2021	3 (59.58)	5 (111.06)	3 (170.64)
Earlier competitions	Cain-Gribble had COVID

Best scores of possible competitors: Either USA pair could possibly be beaten by Hase/ Seegert GER, Safina/Berulava GEO, Della Monica/Guarise ITA, and perhaps even Zhukova/Bidar CZE if the US team skates badly. This highlights the risk here.

16	Minerva Fabienne HASE / Nolan SEEGERT	GER	ISU GP Skate Canada International 2021	29/10/2021	67.93
17	Karina SAFINA / Luka BERULAVA	GEO	ISU CS 53rd Golden Spin of Zagreb 2021	09/12/2021	66.95
18	Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO	CAN	ISU GP Skate Canada International 2021	29/10/2021	66.43
22	Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE	ITA	ISU GP Gran Premio D'Italia 2021	05/11/2021	65.12
23	Rebecca GHILARDI / Filippo AMBROSINI	ITA	ISU GP Internationaux de France 2021	19/11/2021	64.60
33	Jelizaveta ZUKOVA / Martin BIDAR	CZE	ISU CS Warsaw Cup 2021	18/11/2021	60.88
49	Sofiia HOLICHENKO / Artem DARENSKYI	UKR	ISU European Championships 2022	12/01/2022	55.15

So IMO, the US should look at how the two teams are skating at their first practices, and go with the one that is looking stronger there.

 

[GoneWithTheWind]

Best scores of possible competitors: Either USA pair could possibly be beaten by Hase/ Seegert GER, Safina/Berulava GEO, Della Monica/Guarise ITA, and perhaps even Zhukova/Bidar CZE if the US team skates badly. This highlights the risk here.

Della Monica/Guarise are probably the biggest question mark in terms of where they might score and whether they can top either US team. They've been having a very rocky season, and pulled out of Europeans with minor injury. However, they're very experienced (and pulled out some fantastic performances at the last Olympics, topping their SB by 4 points in the SP). It'll be very interesting to see how the pairs portion of the team event shakes out.

 

[dorispulaski]

The US woman, whoever is picked, is extremely unlikely to beat whomever the Russians or the Japanese pick. Alysa Liu was just positive for COVID, and has not been skating well at the end of the season in any case. Bell and Chen have a similar upside, and skating their best, might indeed finish behind Gubanova of Georgia and Schizas of Canada.

11	Alysa LIU	USA	ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2021	10/09/2021	74.31	S
12	Mana KAWABE	JPN	ISU GP NHK Trophy 2021	12/11/2021	73.88	S
27	Anastasiia GUBANOVA	GEO	ISU CS Finlandia Trophy 2021	09/10/2021	69.50	S
28	Mariah BELL	USA	ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2021	26/11/2021	69.37	S
30	Karen CHEN	USA	ISU GP Skate Canada International 2021	29/10/2021	68.74	S
32	Madeline SCHIZAS	CAN	ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2021	26/11/2021	67.82	S
50	Anastasiia SHABOTOVA	UKR	ISU CS Denis Ten Memorial Challenge	28/10/2021	63.92	S
56	Nicole SCHOTT	GER	ISU CS Warsaw Cup 2021	18/11/2021	63.03	S
66	Yi ZHU	CHN	ISU GP Gran Premio D'Italia 2021	05/11/2021	60.00	S
67	Eliska BREZINOVA	CZE	ISU European Championships 2022	13/01/2022	59.62	S
81	Lara Naki GUTMANN	ITA	ISU CS Nebelhorn Trophy 2021 - OWG Qualifying	23/09/2021	57.16	S

Now let's look at the three women' s downside:
First Liu. Even at her worst, she is not likely to lose to more people than Bell or Chen in the SP.

2022 US Nationals	71.42	3	WD Due to COVID
NHK Trophy 2021	67.72	4	135.18	3	202.90	4
Skate Canada 2021	73.63	4	132.90	7	206.53	5
Nebelhorn Trophy 2021	70.86	1	136.54	1	207.40	1
Lombardia Trophy 2021	74.31	1	144.93	1	219.24	1
2021 Cranberry Cup International	71.42	1	134.32	1	205.74	1

Next Bell

	2022 US Nationals	1 (75.55)	1 (140.70)	1 (216.25)
	Cup of Russia 2021	3 (69.37)	4 (140.98)	4 (210.35)
	Internationaux de France 2021	10 (60.81)	4 (129.98)	6 (190.79)
	2021 Cranberry Cup International	2 (67.07)	5 (112.35)	3 (179.42)

Next Chen:

2022 US Nationals	2	74.55	3	139.30	2	213.85
Internationaux de France 2021	5	64.67	5	129.33	5	194.00
Skate Canada 2021	6	68.74	10	114.67	10	183.41
Finlandia Trophy 2021	6	67.50	6	134.99	6	202.49
Skate Canada Autumn Classic 2021	5	58.01	3	114.99	4	173.00

In the SP, Alysa is pretty much the clear choice, if she arrives in China at all healthy. You want her not to do the 3A in the SP .

Now in the FS, assuming the RUS, JPN, and US make it to the FS. We are assuming the US makes it, because otherwise we have nothing to talk about here.

My assumption is that CZE, GER, and UKR will not make the FS. Contenders for the other two spots are Georgia, Canada, Italy, and China.

Free Skate season's best list:

http://results.isu.org/isujsstat/sb2021-22/sbtswfs.htm

13	Alysa LIU	USA	ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2021	11/09/2021	144.93	S
18	Mariah BELL	USA	ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2021	27/11/2021	140.98	S
29	Karen CHEN	USA	ISU CS Finlandia Trophy 2021	10/10/2021	134.99	S
30	Anastasiia GUBANOVA	GEO	ISU CS Finlandia Trophy 2021	10/10/2021	134.41	S
41	Madeline SCHIZAS	CAN	ISU CS Finlandia Trophy 2021	10/10/2021	125.44	S
53	Lara Naki GUTMANN	ITA	ISU CS Lombardia Trophy 2021	11/09/2021	118.33	S
69	Yi ZHU	CHN	ISU GP Gran Premio D'Italia 2021	06/11/2021	111.25	S

Again, Liu has the best downside of the three, provided her COVID did not affect her too much.

But, none of the three are going to lose to Zhu of China or Gutmann of Italy.

None of them is going to win over the Russian skater, nor are they likely to beat the Japanese skater.

So the question is, what is the high side of Schizas and Gubanova Even at her Nationals, Schizas only got (126.19).

Gubanova at 134.31 has a shot to beat any of the three, especially if they skate badly.

So the question of the FS does not matter much. The US will do no better than 3rd and no worse than fourth in this part of the competition.

So if she is at all healthy, I would pick Liu. If she is not, I would pick Bell over Chen, who is more likely to lose to Gubanova in the FS.

 

[purplecat]

Twitter says Mariah skated during the official team event practice so the Karen report could be wrong. They sure like to keep us guessing!

 

[Moxiejan]

Twitter says Mariah skated during the official team event practice so the Karen report could be wrong. They sure like to keep us guessing!

Since the countries have until tomorrow to announce the SP entries & decide which events will split between SP & LP, i would think that all skaters on the “eligible” list would do the practice. Meaning that it’s possible that both Mariah & Karen, and the two pairs, are doing the team practice — and the decision will be decided later as to who will compete.

 

[jenaj]

T

So IMO, the US should look at how the two teams are skating at their first practices, and go with the one that is looking stronger there.

They won't, though, based on the published criteria. https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2022 Winter Olympic Games Selection Procedures FINAL.pdf , pages 15-17. I'm pretty sure the process for team event selection is already in place and has been for awhile. If Alysa is not participating, then Mariah would be next, based on her international scores, her top three finish at Nationals and her likely preference. Assuming she wants to skate in the TE, she will. I don't think splitting the ladies is likely because the Dance team has higher priority. If the top Dance pair (likely H/D) wants to skate only one event, Dance will be split. But if the top dance pair wants to do both, splitting the ladies would still be a possibility.

 

[Amei]

They won't, though, based on the published criteria. https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2022 Winter Olympic Games Selection Procedures FINAL.pdf , page 15. I'm pretty sure the process for team event selection is already in place and has been for awhile. If Alysa is not participating, then Mariah would be next, based on her international scores, her top three finish at Nationals and her likely preference. Assuming she wants to skate in the TE, I think she will. I don't think splitting the ladies is likely because the Dance team has higher priority. If the top Dance pair (likely H/D) wants to skate only one event, Dance will be split. But if the top dance pair wants to do both, splitting the ladies is still a possibility.

I don't foresee anyone willingly passing up the team event unless they are injured or sick, barring implosion its pretty much a guaranteed Olympic medal of some color. Chock/Bates and Hubble/Donohue have expressed a desire to split the team event

 

[jenaj]

I don't foresee anyone willingly passing up the team event unless they are injured or sick, barring implosion its pretty much a guaranteed Olympic medal of some color. Chock/Bates and Hubble/Donohue have expressed a desire to split the team event

Based on the criteria and reports about her travel plans, it appears Alysa has passed up the TE. Maybe her recovery from the virus took longer than expected. Or there could be other reasons. Under section C, which is referenced in the TE selection process, Alysa would have the highest priority among the ladies and, assuming no other issue, would be ranked 1 and have first choice whether to do the TE. Mariah would appear to be next.

 

[Moxiejan]

Based on the criteria and reports about her travel plans, it appears Alysa has passed up the TE. Maybe her recovery from the virus took longer than expected. Or there could be other reasons. Under section C, which is referenced in the TE selection process, Alysa would have the highest priority among the ladies and, assuming no other issue, would be ranked 1 and have first choice whether to do the TE. Mariah would appear to be next.

How do you assess the rules as they pertain to the two U.S. pairs?

 

[TontoK]

They won't, though, based on the published criteria. https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2022 Winter Olympic Games Selection Procedures FINAL.pdf , pages 15-17. I'm pretty sure the process for team event selection is already in place and has been for awhile. If Alysa is not participating, then Mariah would be next, based on her international scores, her top three finish at Nationals and her likely preference. Assuming she wants to skate in the TE, she will. I don't think splitting the ladies is likely because the Dance team has higher priority. If the top Dance pair (likely H/D) wants to skate only one event, Dance will be split. But if the top dance pair wants to do both, splitting the ladies would still be a possibility.

I think there is some leeway in the criteria. I'm not reading it as strictly as you are.

I point to parts of the discussion that refer to consultations with athletes and coaches and various Committee members... it's not really all THAT clear what that means.

Honestly, I think they'll probably go with who has the "hot hand" in the practices at the venue for women and pairs.

 

[sworddance21]

Based on the criteria and reports about her travel plans, it appears Alysa has passed up the TE. Maybe her recovery from the virus took longer than expected. Or there could be other reasons. Under section C, which is referenced in the TE selection process, Alysa would have the highest priority among the ladies and, assuming no other issue, would be ranked 1 and have first choice whether to do the TE. Mariah would appear to be next.

That's my thought - she isn't recovered enough to skate Team and needs the time to heal and prepare for the Ladies event.

 

[saturdaysun]

I think the team event participants were set before everyone left for Beijing and that's why the flights were staggered the way they were. It doesn't matter who is practicing now. All 3 men have been practicing too.

 

[Amei]

I think the team event participants were set before everyone left for Beijing and that's why the flights were staggered the way they were. It doesn't matter who is practicing now. All 3 men have been practicing too.

Flights are always staggered, after the 1961 plane crash that took out the entire US worlds team the Fed mandated the entire team never flies together

 

[jenaj]

How do you assess the rules as they pertain to the two U.S. pairs?

I would put K/F first.

 

[saturdaysun]

Flights are always staggered, after the 1961 plane crash that took out the entire US worlds team the Fed mandated the entire team never flies together

I know that. I meant they were staggered in a specific way, with Team Event people going first.