P. Gilles/Donohue and Wingle/McKernan were named as the U.S. dance teams for the Ostrava, Czech JGP and 2 new JGP ladies' alternates were also added for Ostrava -- Kirsten Olson (J7) and Ellie Kawamura (J8).
USA & Other Countries JGP Nominees announced
- Thread starter EWalker
- Start date
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- Jul 11, 2003
isn't kirsten olson a protoge of Rohene? She was better that expected at last year's Nats, and he was beaming.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
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Getting back to the initial nominees, I wouldn't have placed Marissa Secundy on that list. Despite winning in the novice division at Nationals, she had significantly lower scores than the other ladies last season even after accounting for the differences in the scoring between the junior and novice divisions. And she is not younger than the others. However, at least there is consistency in her evaluation by the USFS. She is an initial nominee and she is in team C.
I don't believe any of these Juniors can be classified as seasoned skaters. However, some have more talent than others, and I put Secundy in that categrory. We'll see.
Getting back to the initial nominees, I wouldn't have placed Marissa Secundy on that list. Despite winning in the novice division at Nationals, she had significantly lower scores than the other ladies last season even after accounting for the differences in the scoring between the junior and novice divisions. And she is not younger than the others. However, at least there is consistency in her evaluation by the USFS. She is an initial nominee and she is in team C.
I don't believe any of these Juniors can be classified as seasoned skaters. However, some have more talent than others, and I put Secundy in that categrory. We'll see.
So your USA notes
look something like the following:2008 Nationals level/placements & JGP Final/Jr. Worlds results added below.
* = making JGP debut in 2008-09
Ladies assignments
*Becky Bereswill S10
Melissa Bulanhagui S8
*Amanda Dobbs J5
Alexe Gilles J1/JGPF6
Angela Maxwell J2
Kristine Musademba J4/JGPF4
*Brittney Rizo J3
*Marissa Secundy N1
Alternates
Ellie Kawamura J8
Kirsten Olson J7
Victoria Rackohn J6; silver at Gardena Spring Trophy
Tenile Victorsen S11
Karen Zhou S16; gold at Gardena Spring Trophy
---
A possible salve for Secundy is that perhaps see started skating later than the other ladies. I take it Joesitz is seeing superior edgework and flow from her. Judging only by her scores, age, and speed, she trails in talent to a few others who haven't been given an assignment.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
She was the Novice Champion at US Nats and I saw her in Exhibition. She does have super flow and edges over the ice. Don't know much about her start of skating.
When I see a skater live or possibly from a very clear youtube, I do indeed look to see if the skater knows how to skate properly. Once that clears up, I go for the tricks. Medals to me should go to the best skater in that and only that competition. they do not necessarily go to best skater.
I wonder why some see these alternates as being younger and having more 'talent' than Secundy.
Ellie Kawamura, age 14, turns 15 in November; no Team envelope
2008: J8
2007: N5
2006: I3
2005: I6, SWP Regionals
2004: Ju3
Kirsten Olson, age 16, turns 17 in October; no Team envelope
2008: J7
2007: J9
2006: withdrew, UGL Regionals
2005: N5
2004: I2
Victoria Rackohn, age 15, turns 16 in November; Team C
2008: J6; silver at Gardena Spring Trophy (Junior)
2007: J8
2006: N5
2005: N10
2004: N11, SWP Regionals
2003: I7, SWP Regionals
Tenile Victorsen, age 18 (Jan); No Team envelope
2008: S11
2007: S5, SWP Regionals
2006: J10
2005: J4, 8th JGP SVK, 2nd Gardena Spring Trophy
2004: N7
2003: I9
2002: Ju4
Karen Zhou, age 17 (Aug 21); Team C
2008: S16; gold at Gardena Spring Trophy (Junior)
2007: S6, Pacific Sectionals
2006: J9, SWP Regionals
2005: J8, SWP Regionals
2004: I5, SWP Regionals
Marissa Secundy, age 15 (May); Team C
2008: N1; gold, Challenge Cup (Novice)
2007: N10, Midwest Sectionals; N2, SW Regionals
2006: Ju1
National Championships: Secundy, Novice and Juvenile
National medalist:
Secundy: N1, Ju1
Kawamura: I3, Ju3
Olson: I2
Victorsen: J4, Ju4
Age: (youngest to oldest)
Kawamura 14 (Nov '93)
Secundy 15 (May '93)
Rackohn 15 (Nov '92)
Olson 16 (Oct '91)
Zhou 17 (Aug '91)
Victorsen 18 (Jan '90)
Ellie Kawamura, age 14, turns 15 in November; no Team envelope
2008: J8
2007: N5
2006: I3
2005: I6, SWP Regionals
2004: Ju3
Kirsten Olson, age 16, turns 17 in October; no Team envelope
2008: J7
2007: J9
2006: withdrew, UGL Regionals
2005: N5
2004: I2
Victoria Rackohn, age 15, turns 16 in November; Team C
2008: J6; silver at Gardena Spring Trophy (Junior)
2007: J8
2006: N5
2005: N10
2004: N11, SWP Regionals
2003: I7, SWP Regionals
Tenile Victorsen, age 18 (Jan); No Team envelope
2008: S11
2007: S5, SWP Regionals
2006: J10
2005: J4, 8th JGP SVK, 2nd Gardena Spring Trophy
2004: N7
2003: I9
2002: Ju4
Karen Zhou, age 17 (Aug 21); Team C
2008: S16; gold at Gardena Spring Trophy (Junior)
2007: S6, Pacific Sectionals
2006: J9, SWP Regionals
2005: J8, SWP Regionals
2004: I5, SWP Regionals
Marissa Secundy, age 15 (May); Team C
2008: N1; gold, Challenge Cup (Novice)
2007: N10, Midwest Sectionals; N2, SW Regionals
2006: Ju1
National Championships: Secundy, Novice and Juvenile
National medalist:
Secundy: N1, Ju1
Kawamura: I3, Ju3
Olson: I2
Victorsen: J4, Ju4
Age: (youngest to oldest)
Kawamura 14 (Nov '93)
Secundy 15 (May '93)
Rackohn 15 (Nov '92)
Olson 16 (Oct '91)
Zhou 17 (Aug '91)
Victorsen 18 (Jan '90)
As I've mentioned previously, if you look at their more recent scores, including regionals and sectionals, there is a wide gap that can't be explained by divisional differences alone.
ETA: And I did not say that the alternates were younger. Being the novice champion, most would natually assume that Secundy is one or two years younger than all of the others, but she's not.
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Why would you consider Regionals and Sectionals "more recent"? Regionals were 10 months ago, and Sectionals 9 months.
At the time of the 2008 Novice Championships, here were the Sectionals scores of all the Novices, along with their ages:
127.17 (M1) Christina Gao 13, 3/94
122.96 (M2) Marissa Secundy 14, 5/93
114.40 (M3) Sophia Lamay 14, 5/93
112.93 (M4) Agnes Zawadzki 13, 7/94
104.19 (P1) Victoria Hecht 14, 5/93
102.42 (P2) Samiera Abou-Nasr 16, 11/91
101.78 (E1) Holly Alexander 13, 6/94
101.24 (P3) Stephanie Rigley 14, 5/93
99.82 (E2) Felicia Zhang 14, 9/93
99.54 (P4) Song King 14, 6/93
97.84 (E3) Gretchen Donlan 14, 11/93
94.27 (E4) Kendall Wyckoff 15, 7/92
As far as Sectionals scoring is concerned, Secundy had the second-highest score of the Novices.
Like the majority of the Novice ladies, Secundy was 14.
As Juniors at Nationals, Kawamura was 14, Rackohn was 15, and Olson 16. The average age of the Juniors was 15, so Kawamura was younger than average and Olson was older than average.
As Senors at Nationals, Zhou was 16 and Victorsen, 18. The average age of the Seniors was 18, so Victorsen was average and Zhou was younger than average.
Now, as far as the "discrepancy" between Secundy's Sectionals scores and the scores of the Junior ladies.....
Average TES and PCS scores - Junior Ladies:
26.41 TES, 20.33 PCS - 46.74 Average Total Short Program
41.55 TES, 38.74 PCS - 80.29 Average Total Free Skate
Overall Average Total: 127.03
Average TES and PCS scores, Novice Ladies:
17.54 TES, 15.86 PCS - 33.40 Average Short Program
32.18 TES, 33.07 PCS - 65.25 Average Free Skate
Overall Average Total: 98.65
Subtracting 127.03 - 98.65, you get the expected Total score difference between the Junior and Novice ladies: 28.38
Here were the Total Sectionals scores of the Junior Ladies. Subtract from each the scores of the Novice Ladies.
152.16 Maxwell M1 - 127.17 Gao = 24.99
148.68 Olson M2 - 122.96 Secundy = 25.72
148.28 Scimeca M3 - 114.40 Lamay = 33.88
147.34 Fairchild M4 - 112.93 Zawadzki = 34.41
141.06 Kawamura P1 - 104.19 Hecht = 36.87
131.79 Alba P2 - 102.42 Abou-Nasr = 29.37
131.30 Dobbs P3 - 101.78 Alexander = 29.52
129.04 Rackohn P4 - 101.24 Rigley = 27.80
127.94 Ruan E1 - 99.82 Zhang = 28.12
127.21 Rizo E2 - 99.54 King = 27.67
103.85 Leonov E3 - 97.84 Donlan = 6.01
101.16 Stern E4 - 94.27 Wyckoff = 6.89
Most of the score differences are very close to the expected difference.
What you forgot is not only the PCS multiplier difference, but also the fact that the Junior programs are longer than the Novice programs (SP 8 vs 6 elements; FS 12 vs 10 elements) and the fact that Junior Ladies attempt more difficult jumps than the Novices do.
At the time of the 2008 Novice Championships, here were the Sectionals scores of all the Novices, along with their ages:
127.17 (M1) Christina Gao 13, 3/94
122.96 (M2) Marissa Secundy 14, 5/93
114.40 (M3) Sophia Lamay 14, 5/93
112.93 (M4) Agnes Zawadzki 13, 7/94
104.19 (P1) Victoria Hecht 14, 5/93
102.42 (P2) Samiera Abou-Nasr 16, 11/91
101.78 (E1) Holly Alexander 13, 6/94
101.24 (P3) Stephanie Rigley 14, 5/93
99.82 (E2) Felicia Zhang 14, 9/93
99.54 (P4) Song King 14, 6/93
97.84 (E3) Gretchen Donlan 14, 11/93
94.27 (E4) Kendall Wyckoff 15, 7/92
As far as Sectionals scoring is concerned, Secundy had the second-highest score of the Novices.
Like the majority of the Novice ladies, Secundy was 14.
As Juniors at Nationals, Kawamura was 14, Rackohn was 15, and Olson 16. The average age of the Juniors was 15, so Kawamura was younger than average and Olson was older than average.
As Senors at Nationals, Zhou was 16 and Victorsen, 18. The average age of the Seniors was 18, so Victorsen was average and Zhou was younger than average.
Now, as far as the "discrepancy" between Secundy's Sectionals scores and the scores of the Junior ladies.....
Average TES and PCS scores - Junior Ladies:
26.41 TES, 20.33 PCS - 46.74 Average Total Short Program
41.55 TES, 38.74 PCS - 80.29 Average Total Free Skate
Overall Average Total: 127.03
Average TES and PCS scores, Novice Ladies:
17.54 TES, 15.86 PCS - 33.40 Average Short Program
32.18 TES, 33.07 PCS - 65.25 Average Free Skate
Overall Average Total: 98.65
Subtracting 127.03 - 98.65, you get the expected Total score difference between the Junior and Novice ladies: 28.38
Here were the Total Sectionals scores of the Junior Ladies. Subtract from each the scores of the Novice Ladies.
152.16 Maxwell M1 - 127.17 Gao = 24.99
148.68 Olson M2 - 122.96 Secundy = 25.72
148.28 Scimeca M3 - 114.40 Lamay = 33.88
147.34 Fairchild M4 - 112.93 Zawadzki = 34.41
141.06 Kawamura P1 - 104.19 Hecht = 36.87
131.79 Alba P2 - 102.42 Abou-Nasr = 29.37
131.30 Dobbs P3 - 101.78 Alexander = 29.52
129.04 Rackohn P4 - 101.24 Rigley = 27.80
127.94 Ruan E1 - 99.82 Zhang = 28.12
127.21 Rizo E2 - 99.54 King = 27.67
103.85 Leonov E3 - 97.84 Donlan = 6.01
101.16 Stern E4 - 94.27 Wyckoff = 6.89
Most of the score differences are very close to the expected difference.
What you forgot is not only the PCS multiplier difference, but also the fact that the Junior programs are longer than the Novice programs (SP 8 vs 6 elements; FS 12 vs 10 elements) and the fact that Junior Ladies attempt more difficult jumps than the Novices do.
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10 months ago is certainly more recent than 2002 and 2003.
No, I didn't forget any of those things. Note that the juniors attempt more difficult jumps because they are better skaters than the novices, not necessarily because the rules disallow novices from attempting more difficult jumps. And it's not just more skilled at jumping, juniors are more skilled in all facets of skating. Calculating how much more skilled the juniors were than the novices is where your "discrepancy" calculations are lacking. Perhaps you forgot that as Marisa improves, so will the others. To determine how much more skilled the juniors were, take the differences you calculated and reduce them to account for the different rules.
Let's look at the scores for the 2007-2008 season of the most likely candidates. For personal bests scores, I've noted the event where it occurred.
Ellie Kawamura
junior: 122.74, 141.06 (pacific sectionals), 140.21
Kirsten Olson
junior: 130.21, 148.68 (midwestern sectionals), 138.13
Victoria Rackhohn
junior: 118.68, 137.70 (nationals), 129.04, 127.50
Marisa Secundy
junior: 114.01
novice: 104.77, 110.38, 122.96 (midwestern sectionals), 108.52
These scores can be found at: http://www.tracings.net/usa.html
Let's adjust their personal bests scores to account for the differences in the rules between the junior vs. novice division. The protocols for those skates can be found at: http://www.usfigureskating.org/Events.asp
After eliminating the extra elements that the juniors did compared to the novices and adjusting for the PCS multipliers, I get the following novice-ized scores:
Ellie Kawamura at pacific sectionals: 129.47
Kirsten Olson at midwestern sectionals: 132.88
Victoria Rackohn at nationals: 120.17
Marisa Secundy at midwestern sectionals: 122.96
Ellie is age 14 old and she is scheduled for Goldenwest. Kirsten is age 16. I don't know what her summer monitoring was or will be. Victoria is age 15 and she scored 118.68 at Gardena and is scheduled for Goldenwest. Marisa is age 15 and she scored 114.01 at Liberty. (All of these scores are at the junior level, so no adjustments are necessary.)
So if Ellie scores better than 114.01 at Goldenwest, which I believe is highly likely, IMO she should be placed ahead of Marisa. For Kirsten, I'm looking for a 130+ score, which is likely. For Victoria, a 125+ score. These score levels can be raised as we get deeper into the year.
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So you are comparing Marissa's early-season 2008 score at Liberty (mid July)
to scores of Junior Ladies from 2007 Sectionals (mid-November). Not cricket. How about you get scores of those ladies from early summer 2007?
Why not wait for Marissa's JGP score to come in before dissing her?
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