Who are the likely JGP ladies for Canada this fall?
First of all Canada has 8 guaranteed JGP slots. So I am going to assume 6 ladies to start with a chance for 2 getting a second slot if they do well in the first one.
Also don't look at national results. This season none of the top 10 junior ladies at 2007 nationals got a spot and only one of them was listed as an alternate to any of the competitions. SC looks much more on whether a skater has landed the bigger jumps ( lutz, loop , or flip ) even once in competition. The picture isn't clear until summer competitions are finished.
This is my likely list of JGP slots ( not the one I would choose myself see my notes)
I am pretty sure Kang, Szmiett, Tisluk and McNeil will get the first 4 slots with the other 2 determined by summer comps.
Almost certain: Kang, Szmiett and Tisluk. Although personally I think SC would be better off sending young novices than these three. All of these skaters have had at least 2 JGP's with pretty bad results ( more often than not scoring a total of under 100 and sometimes getting totals in the 70's which is lower than many FP -only scores of the top junior ladies). Kang would be in her last year.
Pretty certain; Kelsey McNeill ( J1 - landed a triple loop in Thornhill , has reasonably consistent toe and salchow). Also received Merano cup last year.
Definitely deserves a chance. Also her nationals score was higher than Kang , Szmiett and Tisluk.
The following skaters may or may not be picked by SC. Also summer competition may bring new skaters into the mix.
Megan Ure: ( J9 - landed a flip in SP at Canadians. Was listed as alternate for a 2007 JGP despite failing to make it out of western challenges in junior ladies in 2007). And her summer results were all under 100 total as well even though she managed to rotate ( and fall on ) all the triples ( including the harder ones) in the summer. I think it was simply the fact that she rotated all the hard triples in the summer which put her higher on the SC totem pole. In her short program 3 of her spin and step sequences were rated level 1 hence her lower marks. Still in SC's mind probably number 5 on the JGP totem pole at the moment. Personally not my choice.
Rika Inoda : (J19) - Despite imploding at Canadians , has been reasonably consistent the rest of the year. Must come back strong in summer. Was novice champion of 2007. Was trying triple loops in programs but clearly does not have this jump.
Vanessa Grenier( J2) - Like McNeill , outscored Kang , Tisluk and Szmiett at nationals. Must add jumps to repetoire to get eye of SC selectors. I would pick her. She finished very close to Kelsey.
The ladies who placed 3 -7 in junior ladies this year all outscored Kang at nationals. However given SC's attitude unlikely to be chosen unless they add jumps to the arsenal. In Amanda Velenosi's case ( J3 ) would they want her to double up in singles and pairs on JGP like Dube? Cecylia Witkowski ( J7) was listed as an alternate for JGP this year. But the fact that she was 3rd in juniors in 2007 and now has fallen to 7th might not impress selectors. Although Kang in the past finished 4th in 2006 junior ladies and fell to 11th in 2007 and still got JGP assignments so what do I know.
Alexandra Najarro( N1) - should get an assignment - has won pre-novice and novice back to back ( showing great consistency in bigger events) and is very consistent with toe and salchow. Her novice nationals score is 103.04. If she shows added jumps during the summer her place is really locked up.
Melissa Briggs( N2 ) could also get consideration.