What Skaters will skate which events In the Olympic Team Event Competition?

[Kittosuni]

In each section of the Olympic team event, only one skater or pair or dance team competes for each country?

Yup.

Each team can have a max of 6 skater/pair members. So if they have 2 pairs for dance, they will have to spilt the SP and FS. If they have only one lady, then she do both segments

 

[Raskolnikov]

When picking you have to consider that women discipline is the flagship of Russian figure skating.
They'll want to spread the medals among the worthy ones. Hence there is a chance Valieva won't be at the team event.
At the same time who cares what guys from the Mishin camp want. Weaklings don't get the priviledge to choose.

Women: any two girls (don't care who)
Men: Kolyada (the only skater with decent PCS)
Pairs: Galiamov, Morozov (no sore losers on the team)
Dance: Katsalapov (obvious)

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

If I were the feds:
JAPAN
Pairs: R/R duh
ID: Dai and Kana, higher scoring potential and a fantastic story
Men: SP Yuzu. It makes sense for him to skip the Team Event, but at the same point Japan has never won a medal in the Olympic team event despite being one of the strongest feds. To me, if I was one if the people who truly pioneered skating in Japan and had two Olympic gold medals already, I'd want to help lead my country to an Olympic medal. Plus, strategy wise it makes sense. Hanyu is the only skater who can beat a clean Nathan Chen in the SP, which could really help push them to silver as opposed to bronze. FS: Probably Yuma, but whoever places higher between him and Shoma at JNats
Women: SP Wakaba, she has the highest scoring potential and hasn't bombed a SP yet. FS Kaori, again highest scoring potential and most consistent
USA
Pairs: Who knows? Probably first place at Nats
ID: H/D and C/B
Men: Nathan Chen SP, Jason Brown FS. I absolutely would put Jason in the Team Event. In the long, the lowest he can be is fifth, and the strategy of easier but cleaner could put him ahead of Kolyada or someone else if they have a bad day. Plus he's got the story and narrative to make a great television moment. Vincent is a little too unreliable imo.
Russia: Who knows? We'll see after Nats.

 

[dancelion21]

When picking you have to consider that women discipline is the flagship of Russian figure skating.
They'll want to spread the medals among the worthy ones. Hence there is a chance Valieva won't be at the team event.
At the same time who cares what guys from the Mishin camp want. Weaklings don't get the priviledge to choose.

Women: any two girls (don't care who)
Men: Kolyada (the only skater with decent PCS)
Pairs: Galiamov, Morozov (no sore losers on the team)
Dance: Katsalapov (obvious)

People have been speculating that Eteri will get her daughter into the team event so she can get an Olympic gold medal

Also, SinKats have dealt with his back injury throughout the whole fall season. There's every possibility that they won't want to do both segments of the team event to spare his back for the individual event. I dread the possibility that Diana Davis will walk away with an Olympic Gold Medal thanks to her mother, and it will be especially unfair to Stepanova/Bukin, who certainly deserve to skate the free dance if SinKats decide to pull out.

 

[Ziotic]

So I went and ran a simulation, taking each countries top seasons best score!

The results would be as follows;

RUS= 72
USA = 68
JPN = 64
CAN = 54
CHN = 51

* USA top pair score was from two different pairs, which they won’t have the option to use.

It will really be down to pairs for the silver/bronze.

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

So I went and ran a simulation, taking each countries top seasons best score!

The results would be as follows;

RUS= 72
USA = 68
JPN = 64
CAN = 54
CHN = 51

* USA top pair score was from two different pairs, which they won’t have the option to use.

It will really be down to pairs for the silver/bronze.

Thank you, this is really interesting. The US pairs teams are inconsistent this year. They could either be fantastic or have a poor skate and end up near the bottom of the pile. At least R/R are consistent, even if they won't always get their death spiral or twist levels. Who knew pairs would be so interesting this year?

 

[lurkerghost1]

For Russia it should be obvious that:

• Kolyada will do both programs
• Two different women will skate
• Mishina/Galliamov will do the free
• Sinitsina/Katsalapov will do the rhythm dance

So the question is: do they give the sixth spot to T/M or B/K to try to outscore S/H in the short where M/G do not? B/K set the world record at worlds but T/M have been better this year in the short. Or do they give the free dance to Davis/Smolkin, knowing they will go from 2nd in the free dance to 4th behind USA and Canada but they have the gap to afford that. At this point Stepanova/Bukin are a non-factor.

 

[coldblueeyes]

For Russia it should be obvious that:

• Kolyada will do both programs
• Two different women will skate
• Mishina/Galliamov will do the free
• Sinitsina/Katsalapov will do the rhythm dance

So the question is: do they give the sixth spot to T/M or B/K to try to outscore S/H in the short where M/G do not? B/K set the world record at worlds but T/M have been better this year in the short. Or do they give the free dance to Davis/Smolkin, knowing they will go from 2nd in the free dance to 4th behind USA and Canada but they have the gap to afford that. At this point Stepanova/Bukin are a non-factor.

Can't have two options in three disciplines. I think it's a given Kolyada will be favored to skate two programs, but will he want that? I'm not sure who else would skate two programs, because that would mean putting a strain on skaters/teams that are either directly fighting for gold, or betting on a team/skater that doesn't really have a big chance of doing that, and then hurting Russia's chance for gold, especially with the way the men are.

Ideally, M/G would do both. Or T/M, if they want their perfect chance for gold. I'm not sure they'll handle the pressure of the Olympic competition in their own field.

S/K might not be ready for both, and I'd totally be on board for S/B doing it, especially after 2018. Also, the perfect chance for them to catch the gold because they'll never reach the podium in ID.

 

[4everchan]

my pick for Russia would be

SK doing both (to assert themselves ahead of the dance event)
T/M does the short, M/G does the long (best scoring potential)
Kolyada does both programs... they could even pick another man to do both.. it will not matter much IMHO
Liza does the short, she's been very steady in the SP, and Valieva does the LP.

Result = gold...

But to be honest, Russia would need to falter like crazy to not win gold and they could use a lot of different options and still win it.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

In order of the events and placements I'm thinking:

GOLD - RUSSIA, ahem, ROC :
Pairs: SP - T/M; FS - M/G (this is the segment in which these two teams respectively shine the most so it will build confidence - pairs is last so I would love for them to do just M/G and field S/B in dance)
Men: SP + FS - Kolyada (while I could picture someone like Semenenko getting a segment, ROC will want to get their team gold back (well, technically, first team gold for ROC, lol) so it makes way more sense to have their split disciplines be Women and Pairs)
Dance: S/K (as much as I'd LOVE S/B to compete, ROC will come out guns blazing which means S/K maximizing their points - they won't mess around)
Women: SP - Tuktamysheva, FS - Valieva (though Anna might replace Liza and then it's Valieva for the SP and Scherbakova for the FS)
Tbh, with Canada being so weak this time around, and with Kolyada being more reliable, and S/K being de facto propped up above the NA and Italian teams, this is going to be such a runaway it won't even be close.

SILVER - USA:
Pairs: SP + FS - SK/F (this one could end up being CG/L depending on how Nationals go; but either would probably have the same placement and if the USA is to split disciplines to get their best medal colour they should do it in men and dance)
Men: SP - Chen + FS - Zhou (if Brown is the 3rd man, I don't see the USA fielding him and risk giving up team points; plus Brown already has a team medal)
Dance: RD - C/B; FD - H/D (this is a no-brainer; the order is up for grabs but USA would be insane to not field both their top ice dance teams, especially when the Shibs got both segments last time; with P/C, S/K and possibly G/P boxing them out of the individual podium, it's also fair to give these two teams the essentially-guaranteed Olympic team medal)
Women: SP + FS - Chen (I can't picture them not giving Karen a segment if not both, having being the non-team entry last Olympics and having been solid for them the past quad; while Liu is a much stronger choice for the SP it's also her first Olympics and team USA has better disciplines to split the short and long; I don't think Chen would give up too many points in either segment even skating conservatively... a clean Liu could be 2nd in the SP and a clean-faulty Chen would be 3rd-5th so it's not a huge diff; might drop them to bronze if Chen underperforms but men/dance can save the silver; can't picture them giving a segment to the third skater who I imagine will be likely Bell, maybe Tennell or Glenn)
The fielding for USA's team event is really hard to predict as each discipline has at least two top options that are fairly evenly matched... I'm kinda going off on who has been a veteran and will be given the extra mileage

BRONZE - JAPAN:
- this one is the most obvious lol, one pair team, one dance team; only question is who from men or women will be fielded
Pairs: SP + FS - M/K (they will be the key differentiators between Japan being as high as 2nd or off the podium altogether; I think they will rise to the occasion though)
Men: SP - Hanyu; FS - Kagiyama (as much as Uno is a viable option for either segment, if Japan's gunning for a medal this is the smartest option IMO; while others think Hanyu might be kept off the team event I feel like they'll give him the SP because he can put Japan in a great position to win a team medal, and get some Olympic ice before the individual - plus I can't conceive Team Japan earning a team medal without him... Kagiyama of course is a solid option and is an individual threat)
Dance: RD + FD - M/T (never mind the other Japanese skaters getting an Olympic medal which is great... the real story would be Takahashi getting his - being the first skater in a while to get an Olympic medal in two disciplines! For all of you thinking I'm unwaveringly pro-Canada based on my profile name, let me tell you - of all the Olympic medals, I want this SO badly to happen - even if it's at the expense of Canada! )
Women: SP - Sakamoto; FS - Mihara (if Japan really didn't want to mess around, they would field Sakamoto for both segments; she is the most solid and even without a triple axel can pull huge scores; my wild prediction of all these predictions = Mihara for the FS... I have this feeling that she will kill it at Nationals; Kihira is a question mark, and Higuchi has only had one good FS this season albeit her most recent (if Kihira is back in form I'm thinking Higuchi may be the casualty of Japanese Nats -- even though I would LOVE Higuchi to make the team and to skate lights out with her Lion King FS and cement the team medal for Japan; it would be such a moment!). While it seems like a wild prediction. Mai actually has had, other than Sakamoto, the most consistent freeskates this season.... I feel like Mai would need to place 2nd at Nationals to be considered for the team FS, but based on her performances this season I think she can do it. Higuchi's saving grace is her bronze on the GP but that score of 204.91 would have been well behind Mai/Satoko at GP Italia. She'll need to bring it at Nationals to make the team and if so might get considered for the team FS.

4th - CANADA:
Pairs: SP - J/R ; FS - MT/M (J/R haven't gotten it together in both segments of a competition yet, but unlike the other Canadian pairs at least they've had SOME consistency; at their best they are essentially on par with M/K... M-T/M still have the ability to produce a better FS than the Americans and Japanese but if they continue to struggle I could picture Canada fielding only J/R for both segments)
Men: SP - Messing; FS - Sadovsky (Messing shoulddo the SP at the very least -- but if Canada is feeling generous they could give the FS to Sadovsky who can put up a big enough score in the FS to hold off Italy... and with individual men up first they might split the SP and FS)
Dance: RD + FD - G/P (absolute no brainer - if Canada wants a team medal, they MUST field this team in both segments and G/P needs to steal placement(s) from USA to make up the ground between them and Japan which will be lost in the singles events; as much as FB/S would be nice to field there is zero potential for them to beat Italy/USA/ROC)
Women: SP + FS - Schizas (Schizas of course MUST be fielded in the SP and has a narrow shot to beat a flawed American if she goes clean; Canada has no shot at an individual medal let alone top 6 and Daleman already has a team gold so it's no biggie to exclude her from team - Sadovsky and MT/M are more reliable than Daleman so I picked men/pairs to be the split disciplines if Canada chooses to split)

O (boy) Canada! I think they have an extremely small shot at a bronze but they will require some major underperforming from Japan in pairs and the rhythm dance, and exceedingly strong results from their own pair/dance entries... Messing and Schizas must also both absolutely deliver in the SPs. There isn't much wiggle room for them. Even though I think the strongest way Canada could get a team medal is J/R + Messing + G/P + Schizas and not splitting up any disciplines... Canada already won the team gold last time so they might just maximize their entries by adding in two of MT/M or Sadovsky or Daleman - the former two being likelier because Marinaro and Sadovsky have yet to win Olympic team medals and Daleman isn't as reliable as she once was. Who knows though, with G/P as their only viable individual medal hope, they might actually not share the love and maximize their team entries (and have two entries for just pairs) in order to challenge Japan for the bronze.

 

[dancelion21]

In order of the events and placements I'm thinking:

GOLD - RUSSIA, ahem, ROC :
Pairs: SP - T/M; FS - M/G (this is the segment in which these two teams respectively shine the most so it will build confidence - pairs is last so I would love for them to do just M/G and field S/B in dance)
Men: SP + FS - Kolyada (while I could picture someone like Semenenko getting a segment, ROC will want to get their team gold back (well, technically, first team gold for ROC, lol) so it makes way more sense to have their split disciplines be Women and Pairs)
Dance: S/K (as much as I'd LOVE S/B to compete, ROC will come out guns blazing which means S/K maximizing their points - they won't mess around)
Women: SP - Tuktamysheva, FS - Valieva (though Anna might replace Liza and then it's Valieva for the SP and Scherbakova for the FS)
Tbh, with Canada being so weak this time around, and with Kolyada being more reliable, and S/K being de facto propped up above the NA and Italian teams, this is going to be such a runaway it won't even be close.

SILVER - USA:
Women: SP + FS - Chen (I can't picture them not giving Karen a segment if not both, having being the non-team entry last Olympics and having been solid for them the past quad; while Liu is a much stronger choice for the SP it's also her first Olympics and team USA has better disciplines to split the short and long; I don't think Chen would give up too many points in either segment even skating conservatively... a clean Liu could be 2nd in the SP and a clean-faulty Chen would be 3rd-5th so it's not a huge diff; might drop them to bronze if Chen underperforms but men/dance can save the silver; can't picture them giving a segment to the third skater who I imagine will be likely Bell, maybe Tennell or Glenn)
The fielding for USA's team event is really hard to predict as each discipline has at least two top options that are fairly evenly matched... I'm kinda going off on who has been a veteran and will be given the extra mileage

Agree with most of what you said. The only thing is that Russia may be forced to split dance depending on how injured S/K are. This whole fall season, they've been struggling with Nikita's back injury, and I'm not sure if they are capable of doing four programs pretty much back to back. It could lead to a recipe for disaster in the individual event if they're exhausted from the team event. If they split dance, everyone knows that StepBuk deserve to skate it, but people have been speculating all season that Eteri's going to put her daughter in for the free dance. I pray that nepotism isn't actually that powerful, but we'll have to see what ends up happening. Diana Davis has been propped up all season and has gotten some truly ludicrous scores...

Also, I think that they're going to give Kamila the short program and Anna the free program. The short is more important than the free since there are more competitors in the short, and they're not giving a team event medal to a non-Eteri girl. Politically, it's just not going to happen.

For the USA, there's no way Alysa doesn't skate at least one segment. Since she's so obviously the top US lady, they need her consistency, especially for the short program where a really bad skate can tank the chances for a silver medal. Alysa's probably going to do both segments if they end up splitting men and dance. If they split ladies instead of dance, I think it will be Mariah doing the free program. She's more consistent than Karen, and she got that huge score at Rostelecom even without a triple-triple.

 

[Lamente Ariane]

Karen doing both segments of the team event is a really bad idea IMO, considering how poorly Karen's worst skates this season have gone compared to Alysa's worst skates this season, especially in the SP.

I very much hope the USA splits dance, and also that Chock and Bates get the RD because I think their RD will be a big hit and could build enthusiasm for them going into the individual event. This would also give Hubbell and Donohue an extra chance to show off their big lift in the FD (and to make adjustments if there's any lingering concerns it could get called illegal).

 

[jenaj]

Karen doing both segments of the team event is a really bad idea IMO, considering how poorly Karen's worst skates this season have gone compared to Alysa's worst skates this season, especially in the SP.

Totally agree. Karen for the ladies will guarantee bronze (or worse) for the US. Alysa is the obvious choice.

 

[dancelion21]

Karen doing both segments of the team event is a really bad idea IMO, considering how poorly Karen's worst skates this season have gone compared to Alysa's worst skates this season, especially in the SP.

I very much hope the USA splits dance, and also that Chock and Bates get the RD because I think their RD will be a big hit and could build enthusiasm for them going into the individual event. This would also give Hubbell and Donohue an extra chance to show off their big lift in the FD (and to make adjustments if there's any lingering concerns it could get called illegal).

The thought of H/D's lift being called illegal in the team event hadn't crossed my mind until you brought it up. Oh gosh that would be devastating for team USA's silver hopes. That lift is just such a bad idea, skirting the rules of legality. They're lucky it hasn't been called yet, but I can really see a Stationary Lift Base moment for H/D happening at the Olympics.

C/B's rhythm dance got the highest North American rhythm dance score of the season, but across this quad, H/D have generally been the stronger rhythm dance skaters and C/B have been the stronger free dance skaters. So maybe it would still be better for H/D to do the rhythm dance and C/B do the free dance. I've suddenly become very terrified of H/D's lift being called in the Olympic team event. The lift is a combination lift, so if the first part (where they do the slightly illegal entry) is invalidated, would that invalidate the second part as well? If that's the case, then getting that lift called would lose them 15 points, which would knock them from 2nd probably to 4th or 5th in the free dance depending on how Wang/Liu and Muramoto/Takahashi are scored. If it's just the first half invalidated, then they would just be knocked down to third, behind SinKats (assuming they skate) and Gilles/Poirier since H/D usually score in the 124 range for their free dance, and W/L and M/T have been scoring around the 110 range for their free dances.

 

[dorispulaski]

The good (or bad) thing about the second part of the team event is that only 5 teams are left:
I would guess that Russia, US, Japan, and Canada will be four of them. The fifth one could be China or Italy, but not both. The good (or bad) thing about the SP team event is that all 10 teams will compete, but France will not be one of them.

 

[TontoK]

In non-medal news: This probably means that Paul Fentz will get a trip to the Olympics to skate for Germany.

I know he would not be a medal threat in the individual event had he qualified (nor is the German team, for that matter) but I've always liked his skating. He's my new cactus. I look forward to his short program.

 

[siberia82]

I am not sure Roman has the stamina for a FP. I would probably send only Keegan.

Roman is wildly inconsistent in competition, but he nonetheless earned the highest free skate score of any Canadian man this season with 169.21 points (Keegan got the second-highest with 168.03). It's not a big difference, but I do think it would be too draining for Keegan to perform 4 programs, so based on what we've seen so far, Roman should do the FS at the team event.

This is all hypothetical, of course. I'm not even sure which two Canadian men will be sent to the Olympics -- Keegan is perhaps the sole "safe" candidate (but just how "safe" is he in Skate Canada's mind, I have absolutely no idea).

 

[Lamente Ariane]

Roman is wildly inconsistent in competition, but he nonetheless earned the highest free skate score of any Canadian man this season with 169.21 points (Keegan got the second-highest with 168.03). It's not a big difference, but I do think it would be too draining for Keegan to perform 4 programs, so based on what we've seen so far, Roman should do the FS at the team event.

This is all hypothetical, of course. I'm not even sure which two Canadian men will be sent to the Olympics -- Keegan is perhaps the sole "safe" candidate (but just how "safe" is he in Skate Canada's mind, I have absolutely no idea).

I think Canada should absolutely split the men- Keegan in the SP since that has been his strength and Roman or whoever the second man is in the FS. They can’t split ladies and probably won’t split dance so it won’t do any harm and probably will do both men a lot of good.

 

[sheetz]

How is the skating order determined for the Team Event?

 

[4everchan]

In order of the events and placements I'm thinking:

GOLD - RUSSIA, ahem, ROC :
Pairs: SP - T/M; FS - M/G (this is the segment in which these two teams respectively shine the most so it will build confidence - pairs is last so I would love for them to do just M/G and field S/B in dance)
Men: SP + FS - Kolyada (while I could picture someone like Semenenko getting a segment, ROC will want to get their team gold back (well, technically, first team gold for ROC, lol) so it makes way more sense to have their split disciplines be Women and Pairs)
Dance: S/K (as much as I'd LOVE S/B to compete, ROC will come out guns blazing which means S/K maximizing their points - they won't mess around)
Women: SP - Tuktamysheva, FS - Valieva (though Anna might replace Liza and then it's Valieva for the SP and Scherbakova for the FS)
Tbh, with Canada being so weak this time around, and with Kolyada being more reliable, and S/K being de facto propped up above the NA and Italian teams, this is going to be such a runaway it won't even be close.


O (boy) Canada! I think they have an extremely small shot at a bronze but they will require some major underperforming from Japan in pairs and the rhythm dance, and exceedingly strong results from their own pair/dance entries... Messing and Schizas must also both absolutely deliver in the SPs. There isn't much wiggle room for them. Even though I think the strongest way Canada could get a team medal is J/R + Messing + G/P + Schizas and not splitting up any disciplines... Canada already won the team gold last time so they might just maximize their entries by adding in two of MT/M or Sadovsky or Daleman - the former two being likelier because Marinaro and Sadovsky have yet to win Olympic team medals and Daleman isn't as reliable as she once was. Who knows though, with G/P as their only viable individual medal hope, they might actually not share the love and maximize their team entries (and have two entries for just pairs) in order to challenge Japan for the bronze.

your ROC : same as mine.

Your canada : ermm... Canada has no choice for ladies.. only one is going... so whoever gets sent, it's really a no brainer so i am not sure where you are going with Daleman there and her already earned gold medal... i mean.. if she is sent to the games, she is doing both segments... if it's Maddie, then it's Maddie

I have mixed feelings about Canada : the SP is crucial... if Canada does very well, they could send the same exact for competitors to the LP.

If Canada does badly in the SP, they will not recover with how this event is set.. so then, rest Keegan and JR.
I don't think that MTM deserve to compete here....