When does a skater hit her peak?

[Mathman]

Tara Lipinski – 15
Oksana Baiul – 15
Sarah Hughes – 16
Maria Butyrskaya – 26
Irina Slutskaya – 25
Michelle Kwan – maintained steady plateau, 15 – 22.
Shizuka Arakawa – still getting better and better
Kristi Yamaguchi, Yuka Sato – got even better in the professional ranks

Yu-na Kim – will her career be cut short by injury?
Mao Asada – was she better at 15 than she is now?
Caroline Zhang – dominated juniors at 14, are others overtaking her?

 

[fumie_fumie]

Joannie Rochette - getting close to mastering 3-3 at 21
Miki Ando - 20, still going strong, she has her moments and ups and downs, but that is to be expected. She is only human.
Irina Slutskaya - 25, she peaked at the GP of the 2005-2006 season. See her cup of Russia performance.
Fumie Suguri - 24-25, she also peaked at 2005-2006 season.

 

[gkelly]

Are you asking about specific skaters or about trends?

I think it's hard to say because often skaters will have one or two successful years fairly early in their careers and then things will change for one reason or another.

Maybe they quit skating completely or turn pro (in which case they may improve in basic skating skills and presentation but usually not in overall technical content).

Maybe they lose a year or two due to injury or burnout or whatever and then return to competition. Or they keep competing all along with lesser results for a while and then return to or even surpass the level of their earlier peak. Or they just keep competing but never regain their earlier level.

For skaters who maintain a long career, it's often possible to identify a peak and subsequent decline. For skaters who leave the sport early on, even if they leave on a high note such as an Olympic or world title, it's impossible to say whether that level of performance would have been their peak if in fact there had been incentive for the skater to continue pushing herself.

 

[Mathman]

I guess I was trying to ask two questions at once.

The first is that old chestnut, sport versus art.

It seems natural that the youngsters should be more sporty and the more mature athletes more arty. Slutskaya is a rare counterexample -- the older she got the better she could jump, but her presentation skills stayed about the same.

The other question is specifically, how do the current world beaters, Mao Asada and Yu-na Kim, fit into the picture. On the Kim thread there is speculation that she will miss worlds because of chronic back problems. Will her career be cut short like Tara's was?

As for Mao, in the 2005-06 season she beat the entire Olympic podium, Arakawa (twice), Cohen, and Slutskaya (one out of two). Two years later, while she has made great strides in grace and musical expression, doubts have begun to creep in about the reliability of her triple Axel, about how many points she gives away on her Lutz, about the lack of a Salchow, and about a toeloop take-off that is still a little iffy.

A year ago at this time there seemed little doubt that Asada and Kim would split the next several world championships between them and finish one-two (in one order or the other) at the 2010 Olympics. All of a sudden that does not seem carved in stone any more.

 

[Tinymavy15]

I think it is a mistake to say that other skaters are "passing" caroline. True, she is not unbeatable, but who thought she would be. She has improved in her artisty, learned a steady 3/3, made the GPF and almost got a medal there and skated a perfect program at nationals. I would say that overall, female skaters peak bewteen the ages of 14-19. athough Kwan was very consistnat her whole competiteive career, i feel her best era was 97-98 when she was about 16-17. I think that at that time her aristry had fully developed and her jumps were clean, easy and lovely. As for Mao, I think that she is the best skater now than she ever has been. 3 years ago she was the best jumper but now with the help of Tatianna Terosova and Lori Nichol she has become a elegant, musical, mature skater who also can land a 3 axel and 2 3/3 combos!

 

[emma]

A year ago at this time there seemed little doubt that Asada and Kim would split the next several world championships between them and finish one-two (in one order or the other) at the 2010 Olympics. All of a sudden that does not seem carved in stone any more.

I felt that way baring injury -- I still feel that way; there are a lot of fantastic girls/young landies, but I think Mao and Yu-Na stand out of the competitive pack - without injury. I think they - healthy - have to watch out for Miki - as she proved last year, she's in there to win and can! I'm waiting to see if Rochette conquers her nerves/demons - but if she does, I think she will be a serious contender, with a consistent (if that is possible) Kostner. And I could go on with the list of people to watch out for plus the up and commers: my point, I had no and still have no 'caveats' (or 'buts') about Mao and Yu-Na except health. And I think this despite what appears to be Mao's limited jump range and Yu-Na's lack of leg turn out - they rack up the points and deservedly - imo - so.

 

[hockeyfan228]

I do think some skaters peak before puberty and never regain basic technical mastery, like Baiul, who was never a great technical skater even when she won the Olympic title, but could barely land a 2A or easier triple as a professional. Similarly, Sarah Hughes, although she still had one of the most beautiful 2A SEQ 3T at Worlds 2003, could barely do her easiest jumps in Stars on Ice after during a transition from SLC in what appeared to be significant (for a skater) body changes. I don't think there was a trade-off between their presentation in their best eligible performances and their later pro performances, which for Baiul have spanned over a decade.

A skater like Denise Biellmann kept up basic technical skills well into her professional career, and she'd be an example of a trade-off. Katarina Witt achieved an impressive maturity in terms of presentation during her pro career.