Which layout does Trusova need to win?

[silveruskate]

I'm looking at all these layouts and I'm so not convinced that Sasha can do any of them really.

 

[silveruskate]

Sasha just can't beat Anna or Kamila at Russian domestic competitions if either of the two go somewhat clean. They have too much of a PCS and GOE advantage. You know something's up when Sasha's gorgeous 4Lz-3T at Russian Nationals is only worth two points more in TES than Kamila's 4T-2T when the 4Lz-3T has almost five points more in BV. In one of the Russian cup events, Sasha beat Kamila after she had a disaster in the free program, falling on a 4T and messing up both of her 3Lz later in the program, thus missing out on a combination jump. Even after this disaster, Kamila still scored higher in PCS than Sasha when Sasha was somewhat clean, falling on only her 3Lz-3Lo and having a slightly rough landing on a quad. The main thing is that, no one has had international competitions this season, so it is unclear how much of a GOE advantage (if any) that Anna or Kamila would have there. In international competitions, Sasha and Anna have always had similar jump GOE in the past, so let's see if that will still be true next season.

Absolutely. These domestic competitions are being taken way too seriously.

 

[jenaj]

I think Sasha should focus on her quads and not the 3A. The 3A is a nemesis for ladies skaters. Let's see if Kamila still has hers consistently next season. I think she should concentrate on the 4Lz and 4T and forget about the rest. Jackie Wong just tweeted that an underrotated 4Lz is still worth 9.2. And Sasha is not that much of an underrotator.

 

[anonymoose_au]

I think Sasha should focus on her quads and not the 3A.

Until quads are allowed in SP this isn't an option for Sasha, especially against Kamila. Kamila with 3A in her SP will give her an enormous lead, Sasha would need a five quad FS done perfectly to even have a chance of beating her. With a 3A in her SP she'd have a fighting chance with "only" 3 or 4 quads.

And you can't underestimate the importance of domestic competitions, they're what decide which skaters get to compete internationally. If Aliona gets her 3A back or Daria gets one or a quad, Sasha can probably kiss an Olympic spot goodbye.

Which stinks because her artistry has really improved, but the judges choose not to see it because Sasha's "jumping machine" reputation is set in stone. Maybe after Beijing things can change but probably not before then

 

[starlight97]

If everyone goes clean she needs one 3A minimum to even have a chance.
They will not give Sasha higher PCS or GOE internationally and I frankly think she doesn't deserve them any higher. They most probably will in fact lower slightly internationally, especially PCS.
However, Anna and Kamila are heavily overscored in PCS and GOE and their scores will lower internationally too. The question is by how much.

 

[Scott512]

Until quads are allowed in SP this isn't an option for Sasha, especially against Kamila. Kamila with 3A in her SP will give her an enormous lead, Sasha would need a five quad FS done perfectly to even have a chance of beating her. With a 3A in her SP she'd have a fighting chance with "only" 3 or 4 quads.

And you can't underestimate the importance of domestic competitions, they're what decide which skaters get to compete internationally. If Aliona gets her 3A back or Daria gets one or a quad, Sasha can probably kiss an Olympic spit goodbye.

Which stinks because her artistry has really improved, but the judges choose not to see it because Sasha's "jumping machine" reputation is set in stone. Maybe after Beijing things can change but probably not before then

If sasha goes to worlds and scores 240 plus which she is capable of she's almost set in stone for the Olympics.

Question is does you do two quads or four quads in the free skate?

 

[MarkinBerkeley]

Kamila is now doing 4 ultra-c elements --> 3A in the SP, 3A and two 4T in the FP. It seems Sasha needs one more quad to win over the pcs skaters so she's going to need 5 quads...

(Or 4 quads and a 3A in the SP)

So she has to be Nathan Chen? I doubt that she can consistently land 3 quads, let alone 5.