Who can rival Kim in Sochi: Asada or Kostner?

[zschultz1986]

Her lutz is very good. Deeper BO edge doesn't get you any more GOE than deep BO edge.
I think both have comparable lutz. Yuna's lutz is very big, and covers a lot of distance. Same with Gracie. I think it depends on the day to say who has better lutz.
Caro is also capable of getting huge GOE for her lutz. Her lutz is just perfect. I don't mind the long set up at all because she has speed, flow, height, distance going for that lutz as well.


I don't think Gracie is capable of getting +2/+3 on her loop. If you compare her loop to Caro's 3 loop, which got her +2/+3 all the time, you will see a huge difference.
Same with 3Flip. Look at Caro's 3Flip, which she also got +2/+3, Gracie's just incapable of getting even + GOE on her flip, let alone +2.

I meant NEVER.

Well, then I think you're underestimating Gracie's ceiling.

I concede that Caro's loop is better NOW than Gracie's but I think it's all a matter of edge control. The Loop is all about using the edge to generate rotational momentum, which I think that as Gracie matures and becomes a better overall skater, will become better.

The genius of Yuna's lutz is that is really isn't a super deep BO edge. She rolls her ankle to get the correct edge, but it's not deep. It's deeper now than it was before, but really, go back and watch the good lutzes, their edges are MUCH deeper than Yuna's.

 

[FlattFan]

Well, then I think you're underestimating Gracie's ceiling.

I think she has some great jumps, but loop, flip, and salchow are not her strength.
If you think she can get +2/+3 on one of these jumps, then you really overestimate her potential.
Let's wait until she can get +GOE on her flip first before expecting +2.

 

[zschultz1986]

I think she has some great jumps, but loop, flip, and salchow are not her strength.
If you think she can get +2/+3 on one of these jumps, then you really overestimate her potential.
Let's wait until she can get +GOE on her flip first before expecting +2.

Well, Loop and Flip weren't Yuna's strongest at all, but she nixed the loop and fixed the flip. I'd say give Gracie credit for actually doing ALL the triples and not chickening out on the ones that aren't her best and give her time to try and fix some of the other stuff.

 

[pangtongfan]

Gold is too young and super talented to put a limit to what her career potential might be. Maybe what her potential is with less than a year to improve however.

 

[ForeverFish]

I think she has some great jumps, but loop, flip, and salchow are not her strength.
If you think she can get +2/+3 on one of these jumps, then you really overestimate her potential.
Let's wait until she can get +GOE on her flip first before expecting +2.

When she fixes the edge problem, Gracie's flip will get comparable GOE to her lutz--and you can quote me on that. I agree that she needs more practice with the loop and salchow, but setting limits on her this early in her career won't do her any good.

ETA: Four judges at Worlds DID give Gracie +2 GOE on the 3Lo. The other five gave her +1. What I want to know is how her monster of a 2A-3T failed to net at least SOME +3's.

 

[zschultz1986]

When she fixes the edge problem, Gracie's flip will get comparable GOE to her lutz--and you can quote me on that. I agree that she needs more practice with the loop and salchow, but setting limits on her this early in her career won't do her any good.

Right? we're talking about Gracie Gold as if she's this 20-something veteran of the Senior ladies. She's 17 and this was her first year on the Senior circuit. I'd say the technical ability she displayed in her first year and her first worlds was pretty dang impressive!

We also have to realize we are comparing Gold (17) to Yuna (22) and Caro (26). She's got tons of time and I, for one, am very excited about her prospects going forward.

Edit: I also agree on that 2A-3T GoE scoring. It was probably the best 2A-3T of the night, by a long way.

 

[Krislite]

Right now if Gold and Kim skated totally clean I think the technical score would be very close, maybe Kim a couple points in front, but that is all. The PCS is where you would see the gulf. However the skaters with the best chance to compete with Kim technically in a hypothetical all clean scenario are Gold, Asada (due only to her huge base value), and to a lesser degree Kostner. On the PCS only Kostner and to a lesser degree Asada can stay in range though. However the thing with Gold is she already gets good (generous) PCS considering the level her skating is at, she is supported by a strong federation who loves her, and judges seem to like her alot too. I also see artistic potential and a huge capacity for growth, and I think in time she will improve alot on the 2nd mark. Now all that coming together in just one year to be a threat to Kim, probably unlikely, but still if I had to pick someone from 4-10 who had a faint hope to challenge Kim at the Olympics she would my first and only choice. It definitely wouldnt be any of the others, there is no scenario I can see Osmond, Li, Wagner, Murakami, or a Russian challenging Kim next year.

If Gold beats Kim, Asada and Kostner at Sochi, it would be even more shocking than Sarah Hughes in 2002. At least Hughes had a World bronze medal, and she had home ice advantage. I just can't see it happening unless all three implode.

 

[zschultz1986]

If Gold beats Kim, Asada and Kostner at Sochi, it would be even more shocking than Sarah Hughes in 2002. At least Hughes had a World bronze medal, and she had home ice advantage. I just can't see it happening unless all three implode.

Challenge is different than beat. I do think Gold has a fair shot at a medal. Do I think she's got a shot at the OGM? Yes, about a 5% chance, which I will review periodically as this next season goes on. Don't sleep on Gracie. If she has a strong Grand Prix season and goes into the Olympics as the American champion, and lays down a performance, she could medal.

On the women's side, much more than the men, we have seen that if Yuna makes mistakes, she is judged fairly on them (unlike Chan). When Yuna makes mistakes and other don't they've beaten her (Worlds 07, 08, 11, etc).

 

[FlattFan]

What I want to know is how her monster of a 2A-3T failed to net at least SOME +3's.

Here's her 2A-3T. I wonder how you think she should get +3 GOE. Her landing is very stiff. Not a lot of flow out of the 3T.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=qFeM5c47-Hk#t=94s

If you want to see a good 2A-3T, here's a good one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=dQygX_iScsQ#t=50s
As a former world champion, she got less GOE than Gracie's in 2009. Just to show how inflated GOE have become.

 

[zschultz1986]

So I've figured out her problem.... it's her knees. That's why her edge jumps aren't amazing, and also why she looks stiff on some of her landings. She needs to get down into that knee and ride those edges out of those jumps (as well as get down in that knee on the loop takeoff.)

 

[Krislite]

Here's her 2A-3T. I wonder how you think she should get +3 GOE. Her landing is very stiff. Not a lot of flow out of the 3T.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=qFeM5c47-Hk#t=94s

If you want to see a good 2A-3T, here's a good one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=dQygX_iScsQ#t=50s
As a former world champion, she got less GOE than Gracie's in 2009. Just to show how inflated GOE have become.

Wasn't there a change in judges' guidelines in recent years to encourage use of greater spreads in GOE, particularly after the .7 factor was implemented? I though that was the case.

 

[pangtongfan]

If Gold beats Kim, Asada and Kostner at Sochi, it would be even more shocking than Sarah Hughes in 2002. At least Hughes had a World bronze medal, and she had home ice advantage. I just can't see it happening unless all three implode.

Lets make one thing clear, I am NOT predicting the Olympic Gold for Gold in Sochi. I am not even predicting a medal per say, I actually predict the exact same podium as Worlds in the exact same order if I had to make a prediction (as boring as that sounds). I am just saying if someone told me I had to pick a skater from 4-10 at Worlds this year who would have a very outside shot to challenge Kim in Sochi, especialy if they improve alot, skate lights out there, and Kim makes rare mistakes, it would be Gold. I certainly think she would have a better shot than say Sotnikova, Osmond, or Wagner who I could never see challenging Kim next year under any circumstances. Atleast she can somewhat compete with Kim in one aspect of skating on a great day, is popular with judges and backed by a strong federation who seems to love her, and shows capacity and signs of potential for future growth even in her current weaker areas (although probably most of that in one year).

 

[coolboogie22]

To me Akiko Suzuki could rival and match the program component score of Yu-Na. But, the judge always undermark Suzuki component side
I wonder why, her program are always the most enjoyable to watch with great transition.

 

[pangtongfan]

Suzuki is mountains behind Kim technically, even if she did 6 or 7 triples, she doesnt do the harder jump combinations, her jumps are way lower in GOE, her spins are much weaker; so the PCS aspect wouldnt matter. That said I do think Suzuki is underscored PCS but I dont think she deserves the PCS of the current top 3 if they skate well either. She doesnt have anywhere near the speed or ice coverage, and it actually is not true her programs have alot of hard transitions, they are charming and very musical, but often are pretty simple. One area I think Suzuki is really undermarked in is interpretation, I would give her a 10 for interpretation probably if I were a judge, and pretty high marks for performance and choreography, but much lower than the best in transitions and skating skills. However judges are instructed to score all 5 components together, and get in trouble if there is too much variance, which I find absurd and defeating the purpose of having seperate components.

Suzuki was underscored this season and should have won both her grand prix events, and possibly been 2nd at grand prix final. Next season she will be in real tough though, Murakami is now the Japanese #2, and Suzuki will have to fight to even retain a spot on the Olympic team. I see no political support for her next season, which all but ends her international hopes, but a 2nd Olympics would be a beautiful way to end her unlikely late career great career.

 

[ForeverFish]

Lets make one thing clear, I am NOT predicting the Olympic Gold for Gold in Sochi. I am not even predicting a medal per say, I actually predict the exact same podium as Worlds in the exact same order if I had to make a prediction (as boring as that sounds). I am just saying if someone told me I had to pick a skater from 4-10 at Worlds this year who would have a very outside shot to challenge Kim in Sochi, especialy if they improve alot, skate lights out there, and Kim makes rare mistakes, it would be Gold. I certainly think she would have a better shot than say Sotnikova, Osmond, or Wagner who I could never see challenging Kim next year under any circumstances. Atleast she can somewhat compete with Kim in one aspect of skating on a great day, is popular with judges and backed by a strong federation who seems to love her, and shows capacity and signs of potential for future growth even in her current weaker areas (although probably most of that in one year).

That's true about Gold--she has the backing of the international judges. Her Worlds FS, if clean, would taken her above 130 (and 190+ overall).

 

[FlattFan]

Here's the ladies at World this year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bguVRNOhtpc&feature=endscreen&NR=1

Going through it again, here are some additional observations
1. Caro's 3lutz in warm up is so big, with a lot of speed in and out. The kind of flow that Gracie needs to get good GOE. Her jumps are just so stiff right now. I wouldn't give +GOE on most of them. +2 GOE on the solo lutz, +1 on the loop, +1 on the 2A-Toe, the rest of them, 0 GOE. The performance aspect was not there yet. Compare to the girls that follow, she was like a little kid.
2. Liza skated within 2/3 of the rink. She did not go to either ends of the rink. Very small jumps. Didn't cover any distance on her jumps. Whoever said this girl is a jumper is insane. Her jumps are adequate. I wouldn't give any +GOE. She does have good technique on all of them, but they don't have the wow factor. Skate bigger and with more speed, then the jumps will be bigger and cover more distance. That's the only way she can move up.
3. Adelina. This girl has so much trouble with all of her jumps. I just notice her flip, she rocked it from one edge to another and back to inside edge. It was like Caroline Zhang back in the day. No wonder the flip was so unstable. Terrible technique. Flutz is obvious. Both 3Toe are so URed. Why put 3T at the end of the combo when she had so much trouble rotating them jumps? I don't think she's a contender with the jumps being so horrible. None of the jumps were any good, save for the loop. She should repeat the loop. Even so, her loop wasn't remarkable.
4. Zijun. I just can't believe how quickly she rotated her jumps. Her jumps are very small, and she doesn't cover the ice as well as the other girls. Should not get any +GOE on the jumps, either. Second viewing, I would mark her at least 4-5 points down from 127+. That wasn't a 127+ performance. Miki Ando at 2009 Worlds didn't even crack 127, and her jumps were so nice and with a nicer stronger performance. It was an inflated score.
5. Ashley. I didn't think she hold back at all viewing it again. She went for it, almost lost the first flip. Didn't get a lot of height in her jumps. The better jumps are also just adequate. Max +1 GOE. Nothing warranted +2 or +3.
6. Kanako. Oh boy, terrible technique on the toe jumps. 3flutz should be -2 for being ugly and flutzy. 3flip should be -1. 3Loop should be -1. 3 Sal +1. Should repeat the 3Sal and 3Toe, at least those should give her +Goe and no problem with UR. When she was in junior, the 3loop gave her a lot of problem. I think it's a mistake to repeat it.
7. Caro. The lutz was just perfect, text book perfect. Landing is perfect. A lot of flow. I really appreciate good jumps with good flow in and out. Right after the lutz, she was wiping her nose again before going for the 2A. Compare her 2A with the likes of Gracie's and Liza's and Adelina's, there is a massive difference in speed, control, and landing, and flow. Those young girls should beat the old bags with jumps, instead, they are so behind. The best skating skill all around. So above and beyond both Mao and Yuna in that department. She smiled every time she went into any jumps, which freaked me out. Goil, you need to focus! Maybe Caro has ADD. Also, watching her covering the entire rink, and watch Liza or Zijun, you'll see why these two skated so small. They don't even bother going to the end of the rink most of the times.
8. Mao. Mao covered the ice well. Speed is average. Great footwork. Good jumps toward the end. But she has so many weakness in her jumps. Flutz. flip always look URed. Labored. She lost the lightness in her skating ever since 2009. It didn't look effortless. And her free leg was just a bit clumsy whenever she landed the jumps. Not a lot of flow, not a lot of control. Should be 0 GOE for most of them.
9. Yuna. Great combo. +2/+3 for that one. Sal wasn't that good. +1. Flip was good +1/+2. 2As +1/+2. Solo lutz +1/+2. Overall, she was the best one, but her choreography is so much weaker than Mao and Caro. Her IN is also not quite "les mis" A bit overscored, maybe by 5 points. One of the best LPs at world nevertheless. I wish Caro can have Yuna's mentality and 3Lz-3T. i wish Mao would skate faster, and clean up her jumps more.

The final standing is correct. Maybe the gap between 3rd and 4th could have been bigger.
183 for Kanako
181 for Ashley
180 for Gracie

 

[venlac]

8. Mao. Mao covered the ice well. Speed is average. Great footwork. Good jumps toward the end. But she has so many weakness in her jumps. Flutz. flip always look URed. Labored. She lost the lightness in her skating ever since 2009. It didn't look effortless. And her free leg was just a bit clumsy whenever she landed the jumps. Not a lot of flow, not a lot of control. Should be 0 GOE for most of them.
9. Yuna. Great combo. +2/+3 for that one. Sal wasn't that good. +1. Flip was good +1/+2. 2As +1/+2. Solo lutz +1/+2. Overall, she was the best one, but her choreography is so much weaker than Mao and Caro. Her IN is also not quite "les mis" A bit overscored, maybe by 5 points.

Mao gained GOE 1-2 on her all jump (except wrong edge, UR jumps).
3lo+2lo 1~2 / 2a+3t 2~3 / 3s 1~2

when I look your judgement GOE to yuna,
(3lz+3t 2~3 / 3f 1~2 / 2a 1~2 / 3lutz 1~2 / 3s 1)
it looks like other skater's GOE should be lower.

If you say Yuna was a bit overscore (because she get goe higher than your judgement)
Also, you can say the same for Mao, right? (you said almost all of her jump should not get goe, but she get goe on all jumps)

 

[Olympia]

Here's the ladies at World this year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bguVRNOhtpc&feature=endscreen&NR=1

7. Caro. The lutz was just perfect, text book perfect. Landing is perfect. A lot of flow. I really appreciate good jumps with good flow in and out. Right after the lutz, she was wiping her nose again before going for the 2A. Compare her 2A with the likes of Gracie's and Liza's and Adelina's, there is a massive difference in speed, control, and landing, and flow. Those young girls should beat the old bags with jumps, instead, they are so behind. The best skating skill all around. So above and beyond both Mao and Yuna in that department. She smiled every time she went into any jumps, which freaked me out. Goil, you need to focus! Maybe Caro has ADD. Also, watching her covering the entire rink, and watch Liza or Zijun, you'll see why these two skated so small. They don't even bother going to the end of the rink most of the times.

Flattfan, your analysis of Carolina will make me look at her performance a lot more closely. You really make the case for her place among the top skaters. Isn't it interesting how her career has developed: she makes it to the top at an age when most ladies are considered done for. She had the luxury of growth because she skates for a country where there are really no other contenders. It kind of makes you wonder what would have happened with skaters from more crowded countries, if they had had the chance to grow past their early weaknesses.

Carolina exemplifies why I like to take the long view about skaters. Some people just grow at a different pace. Shizuka and Akiko are other examples. And Paul Wylie, of course, among the men.

 

[chuckm]

I also noticed that Carolina no longer takes the length of the rink to set up her lutz, the way she used to. She just does it, and so easily.

 

[FlattFan]

Mao gained GOE 1-2 on her all jump (except wrong edge, UR jumps).
3lo+2lo 1~2 / 2a+3t 2~3 / 3s 1~2

when I look your judgement GOE to yuna,
(3lz+3t 2~3 / 3f 1~2 / 2a 1~2 / 3lutz 1~2 / 3s 1)
it looks like other skater's GOE should be lower.

If you say Yuna was a bit overscore (because she get goe higher than your judgement)
Also, you can say the same for Mao, right? (you said almost all of her jump should not get goe, but she get goe on all jumps)

Yes, Yuna was a bit overscore in GOE. Same with Mao.
Caro was about right in GOE. I would call UR on her 3T in the SP, though.

I thought overall, Yuna was about 5 points higher than I would give her.
Caro was about 3 points overscored.
Mao was about 6 points overscored.
Doesn't change the final standing one bit, doesn't change the gap between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd by much either.