Who will make the GPF?

[sweetice]

Your dance picks surprise me a bit. To get this we'd need Hawayek/Baker to finish 5th or lower at IdF, otherwise even 1st/4th beats 2nd/3rd of Z/G, for example. I say Z/G because if G/P can pull off 2nd at IdF, both they and S/K are likely to beat Z/G in the tiebreak.

I have write that before NHK's FD. Obviously now you need to put Hawayek/Baker on that list.

That result also have make more difficult the qualification of Gilles/Poirier, if Papadakis/Cizeron will participate at IdF. Actually Zagorski/Guerreiro's chances over them seem higher, but i'm rooting for the canadians.

 

[Ziotic]

I have write that before NHK's FD. Obviously now you need to put Hawayek/Baker on that list.

That result also have make more difficult the qualification of Gilles/Poirier, if Papadakis/Cizeron will participate at IdF. Actually Zagorski/Guerreiro's chances over them seem higher, but i'm rooting for the canadians.

If G/P take the silver at IDF, they should be in as they would almost definitely win the tie breaker.

Then it would be; H/D, G/F, S/B, S/K, H/B and G/P

 

[sweetice]

I can update like this:

Men: Uno, Hanyu, Chen, Brezina, Messing, Voronov

I don't think Kolyada will win the Rostelecom, nor Samarin the IdF, so Voronov's chances are way higher than them.

Ladies: Miyahara, Tuktamysheva, Kihira, Zagitova, Yamashita, Sakamoto ( or Medvedeva )

The question here is Yamashita. If the Rostelecom's silver goes to Mako, than Evgenia need a silver at IdF with a great score, to overcome Sakamoto. Right now i'm more inclined to see both the japaneses qualified.
Samodurova can't score an higher total than Sakamoto and a silver for her can make more easy Evgenia's qualification.
If Stanislava will take a silver at the IdF the end of the world is imminent and so we have a greater problem then who may be on the GPF

Pairs: Zabiiako/Enbert, Peng/Jin, James/Cipres, Tarasova/Morozov, Della Monica/Guarise, Boikova/Kozlovskii

Here is complicated. Boikova/Kozlovskii's chances depends on the overall result of the Rostelecom, if Tarasova/Morosov will take at least gold or silver, and if between Della Monica/Guarise and Efimova/Korovin a pair will take a silver/gold medal and the other don't go on the podium. With only two pairs qualified here, and a third at 22, Boikova/Kozlovskii can prevail with a good silver at IdF.

Dance: Hubbel/Donohue, Guignard/Fabbri, Hawayek/Baker, Stepanova/Bukin, Sinitsina/Katsalapov, Zagorski/Guerreiro ( or Gilles/Poirier )

All mostly depends on Gilles/Poirier's result at IdF.

 

[sweetice]

If G/P take the silver at IDF, they should be in as they would almost definitely win the tie breaker.

Sure, and i hope so, but it's not easy with Papadakis/Cizeron and Sinitsina/Katsalapov there.

 

[sweetice]

Here is complicated. Boikova/Kozlovskii's chances depends on the overall result of the Rostelecom, if Tarasova/Morosov will take at least gold or silver, and if between Della Monica/Guarise and Efimova/Korovin a pair will take a silver/gold medal and the other don't go on the podium. With only two pairs qualified here, and a third at 22, Boikova/Kozlovskii can prevail with a good silver at IdF.

There's also another possibility: silver and bronze split between Pavliuchenko/Khodykin, Cain/Leduc or even Ziegler/Kiefer, with a gold for Tarasova/Morozov.

Anyway Boikova/Kozlovskii need to see only two pairs over 24 here.

If Kihira will won also the IdF, there's not much chances for others like Mihara or Tennel.

Let's see what happen at the Rostelecom.

 

[sweetice]

Men

Qualified: Uno (30), Hanyu (30), Brezina (26), Voronov (24)

Messing bombed the Rostelecom, and now the fifth is Cha at 22.

Nathan Chen need at least a 5th place at the IdF, Samarin need to win or be 2nd if Nathan will be the first, both Aliev and Jin need the IdF's gold.

 

[Mrs. P]

UPDATE after RC (one event left)

Qualified
Yuzuru Hanyu 30 (575.54)
Shoma Uno 30 (553.7)
Michal Brezina 26 (497.49)
Sergei Voronov 24 (480.72)

(On the bubble at the moment)
Jun Hwan Cha 22 (497.96)
Keegan Messing 20 (485.92 - wins placement tiebreaker with Matteo Rizzo who also have 20 points)

At IDF and contending for GPF spot
Nathan Chen 15 (280.57)
Alexander Samarin 9 (248.78)
Boyang Jin 7 (227.28)
Dmitri Aliev 7 (219.52)

Skaters who could play spoiler for others above
Jason Brown IdF (6th, SC)
Kevin Aymoz, IDF (7th, SC)

Nathan can get top 5 and get GPF. 6th is also a possibility depending on how others do/score.
Alexander Samarin can get in with a top 2 finish.
Boyang and Dmitri would need to win.

The Skate Canada brotherhood did Jun a solid -- both bad (Messing falling to 5th) and good (Kazuki getting bronze). We'll see if his brothers at IdF, i.e. Jason and Kevin will help him out.

 

[sweetice]

Nathan can get top 4 and get GPF. 5th would be likely depending on how others do and score.

With a 5th, the SA's win still put him in the final, regardless of the score.

 

[Mrs. P]

With a 5th, the SA's win still put him in the final, regardless of the score.

Yeah, you're right. I'm a little fuzzy it's early morning here still lol.

 

[rachno2]

Oh, I see. So even if Boyang got 2nd at IdF with a higher overall score than Keegan, Keegan would beat him on placements?

 

[Mrs. P]

Oh, I see. So even if Boyang got 2nd at IdF with a higher overall score than Keegan, Keegan would beat him on placements?

No, he would beat Keegan. He wouldn't beat Jun-Hwan though.

 

[rachno2]

No, he would beat Keegan. He wouldn't beat Jun-Hwan though.

:thumbsup: thanks!

 

[Spirals for Miles]

So Junhwan has a good chance for GPF?

 

[sweetice]

No major changes on the dance's situation.

Qualified: Hubbel/Donohue (30), Stepanova/Bukin (30), Guignard/Fabbri (26)

Waiting: Zagorski/Guerreiro (24 - 3rd/2nd ), Hurtado/Khaliavin (22)

Will see at the IdF: Hawayek/Baker (15), Sinitsina/Katsalapov (13), Gilles/Poirier (11), Parsons (11), Papadakis/Cizeron (0)

Hawayek/Baker need a 4th, Sinitsina/Katsalapov a 3rd and Gilles/Poirier a 2nd.
The overall score of Zagorski/Guerreiro is very low in comparison, but the placements still can qualify them.
The Parsons are still there too, but a silver for them, with these pairs, seem almost impossible.
Papadakis/Cizeron can win this event but can't be on the final.

 

[sweetice]

So Junhwan has a good chance for GPF?

There's also the possibility that be the first substitute will take him to the final, if Hanyu will withdrawn from it.

https://goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?77262-Yuzuru-Hanyu-injury-report

 

[sweetice]

As predicted, the last spot for pairs is still open with a 22.

Qualified: Zabiiako/Enbert (30), Tarasova/Morozov (30), Peng/Jin (26), Della Monica/Guarise (26)

Waiting: Pavliuchenko/Khodykin (22), Efimova/Korovin (20)

At the IdF: James/Cipres (15), Boikova/Kozlovskii (9), Ryom/Kim (7), Kayne/O'Shea (7), Hase/Seegert (7)

James/Cipres need a 5th place and Boikova/Kozlovskii a silver, if the french will won ( as predictable ). The silver will be the tie break with Pavliuchenko/Khodykin.

 

[sweetice]

Aaaaand the ladies:

Qualified: Zagitova (30), Miyahara (28), Tuktamysheva (26)
Not yet but almost sure: Sakamoto (24)

Waiting: Samodurova (24), Yamashita (17)

At the IdF: Kihira (15), Medvedeva (11), Konstantinova (13), Mihara (9), Tennel (9)

Kihira need at least a 4th. Mihara and Tennel a victory. Konstantinova a 3rd but she can't go on the final if low scored. Medvedeva need a silver with more than 198.82 points, but with Mihara and Tennel around i think the silver will surely go over 200.

I think that Konstantinova don't stand a chance. It's almost a question about if Kihira will won and if Medvedeva will beat both Mihara and Tennel.

 

[kevinVchicago]

Waiting: Samodurova (24), Yamashita (20)

Does Yamashita have 20pts? I thought she only had 17pts after today, since she finished just in 7th place.

Thank you for doing these! Can't wait to see what happens this week.

 

[sweetice]

Does Yamashita have 20pts? I thought she only had 17pts after today, since she finished just in 7th place.

:shame:

Yeah... i'm tired after all this skating

 

[kevinVchicago]

:shame:

Yeah... i'm tired after all this skating

Nooo!!! Don't worry, it's been a long day lol