Whom do you think will have a Meltdown?

[screech]

Most posters aren't wishing that someone will have a meltdown, but predicting who will. Two different things, no?

Exactly. It's like saying that wishing to win a 50 gajillion dollar lottery is the same as predicting to win it. Or predicting that there will be a thunderstorm is the same as hoping it will happen. Completley different.

We predict who wins... that doesn't mean that's who we hope will win...

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

You are right Fairly4, it is a nasty thread but some saw the humor in it. And your prediction of evil to come to evil wishers is also true. What goes around, comes around. Scary.

 

[Dipyramidal]

Yu-na KiM because she always melt-downs in FS @ worlds.

 

[Mathman]

Alissa will be the least likely skater to meltdown. She will likely give a performance of her life and will be very competitive.

This is true. Also Rachael.

 

[mycelticblessing]

Yu-na KiM because she always melt-downs in FS @ worlds.

Does she? She didn't have a FS meltdown last year. It was the error in her SP that really cost her the title last year.

I think Kostner might have a meltdown in her SP. She's already had 2 this season.

 

[Medusa]

I think Kostner might have a meltdown in her SP. She's already had 2 this season.

Is that still considered a meltdown? I mean, I can't remember a clean performance, either short or long, by Kostner. Doesn't a meltdown mean that lots of things go wrong that normally don't go wrong? Therefore I think that neither Czisny nor Kostner can have a meltdown - they only can surprise us with good skates.

 

[museksk8r]

Does she? She didn't have a FS meltdown last year. It was the error in her SP that really cost her the title last year.

Yes, Yu-Na won the LP at Worlds last season, despite the 2nd attempt on the 3Lutz, which she singled. It was the fall on her 3Lutz in the SP and resulting 5th place in that portion, which was her real downfall.

 

[1795]

tessa virtue

 

[bellafurr]

wishfull thinking on your part

 

[Eurofan]

Is that still considered a meltdown? I mean, I can't remember a clean performance, either short or long, by Kostner. Doesn't a meltdown mean that lots of things go wrong that normally don't go wrong?

That's how I would define it, the key point being that the mistakes are unexpected. Michelle Kwan falling three times, stumbling on her footwork, and botching a spin would be a meltdown. Arina Martinova doing the same would not.

 

[1795]

wishfull thinking on your part

riiiiiiiiiiight. love the assumption mizz fur

 

[mycelticblessing]

Is that still considered a meltdown? I mean, I can't remember a clean performance, either short or long, by Kostner. Doesn't a meltdown mean that lots of things go wrong that normally don't go wrong?

The cleanest she ever skater was her Canon in D SP at Euros 2 years ago I think. But as a reigning world silver medallist, the general expectation would be for her to pull herself together by Worlds. No?

Therefore I think that neither Czisny nor Kostner can have a meltdown - they only can surprise us with good skates.

Ouch. I'm not expecting Czisny to skate badly, but I will be surprised if she has 2 clean skates though.

Come to think of it, I think Kostner has been even more inconsistent that Czisny this season.

 

[museksk8r]

Come to think of it, I think Kostner has been even more inconsistent that Czisny this season.

Really? Just looking at the notable international competitions, Kostner took 4th at Skate Canada, 1st at Cup of Russia, 3rd at the Grand Prix Final, and 2nd at Europeans. Czisny took 3rd at Skate Canada, 4th at Cup of Russia, didn't make the Grand Prix Final, and 9th at 4CC. Skate Canada and Cup of Russia were head-to-heads between Carolina and Alissa, and Kostner dominated Czisny overall in those match-ups. Kostner is so ahead of Czisny when it comes to basic skating skills, IMO.

 

[HCOSurfer]

Really? Just looking at the notable international competitions, Kostner took 4th at Skate Canada, 1st at Cup of Russia, 3rd at the Grand Prix Final, and 2nd at Europeans. Czisny took 3rd at Skate Canada, 4th at Cup of Russia, didn't make the Grand Prix Final, and 9th at 4CC. Skate Canada and Cup of Russia were head-to-heads between Carolina and Alissa, and Kostner dominated Czisny overall in those match-ups. Kostner is so ahead of Czisny when it comes to basic skating skills, IMO.

I wouldn't go by placements to determine consistency. In the SP, Kostner's average tech score was about 27.08 while Czisny's average tech score was 29.10 excluding nationals. So I would say that Czisny is more consistent in the SP this year than Kostner is, but not by much. However in the LP, Kostner's average tech score was 54.01 while Czisny's average tech score was 51.14 excluding nationals. So now it looks as if Kostner is more consistent in the LP than Czisny is, so their consistencies even out IMO.

 

[museksk8r]

I wouldn't go by placements to determine consistency. In the SP, Kostner's average tech score was about 27.08 while Czisny's average tech score was 29.10 excluding nationals. So I would say that Czisny is more consistent in the SP this year than Kostner is, but not by much. However in the LP, Kostner's average tech score was 54.01 while Czisny's average tech score was 51.14 excluding nationals. So now it looks as if Kostner is more consistent in the LP than Czisny is, so their consistencies even out IMO.

A placement isn't just based on TES though. Kostner justly receives higher PCS than Czisny does. Carolina skates with much more speed, covers the ice better, skates with better use of her edges, and executes her performances with more attack and power than Alissa does.

 

[mycelticblessing]

Really? Just looking at the notable international competitions, Kostner took 4th at Skate Canada, 1st at Cup of Russia, 3rd at the Grand Prix Final, and 2nd at Europeans. Czisny took 3rd at Skate Canada, 4th at Cup of Russia, didn't make the Grand Prix Final, and 9th at 4CC. Skate Canada and Cup of Russia were head-to-heads between Carolina and Alissa, and Kostner dominated Czisny overall in those match-ups. Kostner is so ahead of Czisny when it comes to basic skating skills, IMO.

I'm not really talking about who scored higher. Kostner is, like you said, ahead of Czisny in terms of basic skating skills and technique. What I mean by consistency is that Czisny has been able to deliver some pretty good performances this season, while Kostner has been, as a whole, has been pretty underwhelming.

 

[Jaana]

I´m afraid that Verner might have a meltdown. Anyway, better to have it now and not in the Olympics (refering to Ilia Kulk who won the 1998 Olympics, but had a meltdown in 1997 Worlds, finishing only as 5th there after he won a silver medal in 1996 Worlds).

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I´m afraid that Verner might have a meltdown. Anyway, better to have it now and not in the Olympics (refering to Ilia Kulk who won the 1998 Olympics, but had a meltdown in 1997 Worlds, finishing only as 5th there after he won a silver medal in 1996 Worlds).

We've both thought highly of Verner in the past, but now I am looking forward to Brezina's break through to the top ten Seniors. Hopefully Michal will be golden in next year's Euros and be there for the Olys. Meantime we can hope Verner does his best in LA.

 

[Mathman]

Doesn't a meltdown mean that lots of things go wrong that normally don't go wrong?

Yes, I think we are confusing "consistency" with "skating well" in this thread. You can be consistently bad in the same way that you can be consistently good. Sasha Cohen was the most consistent skater on the circuit. She would fall 1.5 times (one actual fall, one wild step-out) in each and every LP, just like clockwork.

Here is consistency. Caroline Zhang's scores in the 2006 Junior Grand Prix series:

JGP Mexico: 162.43
JGP China 162.42
JGP Final 162.68

 

[Eurofan]

Sasha Cohen was the most consistent skater on the circuit. She would fall 1.5 times (one actual fall, one wild step-out) in each and every LP, just like clockwork.

I think her 2005 Worlds LP is the exception. IIRC, she pitched forward on the landing of the flip and stepped out of the 3-3 combo, but no actual falls.