Who's on Track for Vancouver and Will LA Tell Us More?

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I'm thinking Mao is on track. LA will mean a lot to YuNa to give her best. I don't see Carolina as that much of a contender although the judges give her benefits of doubt. Joannie, Sara, Kimmie need a lot of something to get to the podium. The two young US ladies of Asian decent and Rachael have to figt it out in LA. The two that make it, I believe one will make the podium.

Only Mao is really on track and LA is important to all the others to get on track.

I don't consider the last time out as the definitive leader of the pack. With due regard to Buttle, I see the same old 4 Horsemen of the Quad. I see Buttle to slip in there because of the top 4: Joubert, Daisuke, Lambiel and Verner I think one or two will falter. I'd like to say Johnny so I'll wait to see more in LA. Evan, depending on how bad his health is could also slip in the Vancouver podium.

I see Joubert as on track and all the others need another look at in LA.

I see no clear results in Pairs in Vancouver and I am anxiously awaiting to see the them all again in LA and especially with McLaughlin/Brubaker in the mix.

I don't see Domnina/Shabalan as an easy shoe in' Belbin/Agosto with new coach(?), Delobel/Shoefelder are definitely contenders, Virtue/Moir I think are ready but ???. Pechalat/Borzak, Davis/White, Kohklova/Navitsky all need a closer look in La.

No one team is really on track for the win.

Should be a good Olys but LA will tell us more.

Joe

 

[fumie_fumie]

I think it is hard to predict Olympics placements based on the past season's result.

- Shizuka Arakawa: A lot of people wrote her off after 2005 worlds.

A little sidenote: The Morozov's rendition of her 2004 LP wasn't as good as the original. There was a beauty of flow in 2004 program, which was replaced by Bielmann, doughbut spins and the infamous Morozov arm movement.

- Fumie Suguri: she struggled with all the jumps in the two seasons leading up to the Olympics and then just peaked at the right time and 4th was pretty darn good, considering (although she didn't medal).

- Slutskaya: she was well on track for 2006. She was brilliant in 2005 Worlds and 2006 Cup of Russia. And then down she went with her usually strongest jump - 3loop.

I predict that 2008-2009 wouldn't tell us much about 2009-2010 season either.

 

[NatachaHatawa]

I agree. I really think these Olys are going to be great. At least in men's skating. There hasn't been such a rich circuit for years and what's more no'one knows who's going to win. Everything is so unsure.

As for ladies, Mao and Yu-Na are favourites, but as the favourite never wins.....

I think the pairs gold medalist is pretty easy to guess, unless Shen and Zhao come back. For the other medals, God knows what's gonna happen.

Ice dancing is a bit like the men's category: no idea what so-ever.

 

[Buttercup]

I generally agree with your assessment of the ladies, except Carolina Kostner, who I think is a medal contender - just not a very consistent one... With so much young talent coming up and a somewhat underwhelming class as of this year, I'll be following next season's competitions with great interest. I figure there'll be quite a shakeup.

Men - up until Worlds I'd have said Daisuke and Tomas Verner are progressing the most in comparison to past seasons, but having had a disappointing event, I'd follow them both closely to see how they bounce back, particularly Tomas (I still can't believe he was 15th). A more consistent and confident Tomas Verner would have a great chance in 2010.
I think that if Joubert lets go of his disappointment about 2008 and the quad, and focuses his energies on his skating, he can continue on the right track, so I agree with you there. I think his work with Kurt Browning has done him a lot of good. The men's field is really deep but generally inconsistent (for different reasons) so I'm not going to even venture a guess as to Vancouver beyond that.

Pairs - S/S are very good and very smart about CoP (well, Ingo Steuer is, at least) so I think you have to look at them as the top contenders.

Dance - I'd want to see if V/M can keep up the same level next year - actually, if they can improve, because as good as they are, they still have things they can work on. I also wonder if the Kerrs can finally move up a bit. I don't follow Dance closely enough to be able to offer an expert opinion .

 

[~tapdancer]

The only discipline I follow very closely is ice dance so I don't have an opinion on the others. But I think ice dance is wide open. CoP has done tremendous things for dance...no longer is any team a "shoe-in". And it changes during the phases. I love it!

I think next season will be crucial for the dancers. So many questions...will Dom/Shab be healthy? Del/Shoes retiring or not? Can V/M match their season this year or improve as they should? Then there's the log jam...D/W, K/N, F/S, P/B...anyone of these could really break out next year and shake things up even more.

Right now, there is definitely no lock for the Olympic Gold.

 

[sillylionlove]

I have to agree with that the next two season won't really tell us anything until we see the poduim in 2010 in Vancouver. I mean so many things can happen between now and then. Yeah there might be some skaters that are on track.....but there are still two years to go and everyone knows that things can go very wrong at any time.

 

[clairecloutier]

I think it's too soon to predict anything for the Olympics. So much can happen between now and then.

In the men's event, I think the general pool of contenders will stay about the same going into Vancouver: Joubert, Lambiel, Takahashi, Buttle, Verner, Lysacek, Weir. It's possible that Voronov, Oda, or Chan could break into that group; and if Plushenko comes back, he could as well. But at this point, there's no way to predict who will actually win. Who really thought Buttle had any chance of winning Worlds this year? But he did. I feel like Joubert will be the leading contender in Vancouver, but there's a lot of great competition.

The dance event is also very open. Virtue/Moir, Domnina/Shabalin, Dubreuil/Lauzon, Belbin/Agosto, Delobel/Schoenfelder, and possibly Khoklova/Novitski could all contend. Who knows at this point who will have the inside track? Again, not many people would have predicted the French would win Worlds, yet they did. Right at this moment, I would bet on Domnina/Shabalin, but who knows.

Even the pairs event is becoming less predictable. At the start of this year, all eyes were on Savchenko/Szolkowy, Zhang/Zhang, and, to a lesser extent, Pang/Tong. But the pair who may have impressed the most and skated the strongest at Worlds was Dube/Davison, and Kawaguchi/Smirnov were also very good. Meanwhile, the world is waiting to see what McLaughlin/Brubaker will do in their first full year as seniors. To me, the one sure thing is that if Shen/Zhao do come back, they will once again be the pair to beat--IF they can stay healthy. (And that's a big if.)

The ladies event is the most unsettled of all. Right now, Mao Asada and Yu-Na Kim dominate the field. Yet, neither of these girls is nearly as firmly ensconced at the top as, say, Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya were in the 1999-2002 era. Mao is one of the greatest talents the sport has ever seen; but she is emotionally fragile and susceptible to crumbling under pressure. Moreover, she has no triple salchow and has underrotation problems on her triple/triples. Despite her enormous talent, I feel she is highly vulnerable as a competitor. Yu-Na has stronger nerves as a competitor, but her recurring injury problems make me wonder if she can stay healthy through Vancouver. I am a little afraid hers could be a Kwan- or Lipinski-type situation, in which the injuries may potentially be much more serious than anyone except Yu-Na and those close to her know.

So I feel like it's absolutely possible that either Mao or Yu-Na could win in Vancouver (and I'm rooting for Mao); but I also feel it's very likely that someone else could step in if Yu-Na continues to suffer injuries or Mao continues to struggle with her nerves and jumps. Waiting in the wings is not only Kostner, Ando, Rochette, and the very underrated Nakano, but also, of course, the younger American girls. We don't know what will happen with Flatt, Nagasu, and Zhang over the next few years; they could succumb to growth problems, OR they could become the next Mao/Yu-Na and completely dominate the sport. There is just absolutely no way of predicting right now. It should make for exciting watching the next 2 years!

 

[museksk8r]

Men
Front-runners:
Lambiel
Joubert
Buttle
Takahashi

Ladies
Front-runners:
Kim
Asada

I think all the other ladies at the moment are either untested at the senior level, have not been embraced by the judges, or are too inconsistent to threaten for gold at this moment in time due to injuries and/or nerves.

Pairs
Front-runners:
Shen/Zhao (I keep hearing they are certain to come back. *hopes so*)
Savchenko/Szolkowy
Pang/Tong
Zhang/Zhang

Dance
Front-runners:
Virtue/Moir
Delobel/Schoenfelder (if they stay eligible)
Dubreuil/Lauzon (if they return)
Domnina/Shabalin

I hope we see great competition in all the disciplines and that everyone skates their bests!!

 

[lmarie086]

Dance-I pay the most attention to this discipline out of all four, and I definitely think it's very open at this point. At these past Worlds the standings really moved around and I credit CoP with that, there isn't as much "waiting your turn" (Virtue and Moir anyone?). However, I'm interested to see what will happen regarding Dom/Shab upon their return and K/N; K/N now have a world medal under their belt whereas Dom/Shab do not (I know, they would most likely have if they didn't withdraw). I personally hope that K/N will be the top Russian team now as I prefer them anyway to D/S. As for the Canadians, I don't really see D/L coming back. They seem to be enjoying where they are now, and well, V/M have become such a force that that might influence their decision. I don't see F/S (overrated at Wch IMO) challenging. As for the Americans, it really depends on this next season. Of course, my favorite team is D/W, but they won't challenge unless they become more polished. If they achieve that, then I think (and strongly hope) they'll move ahead of B/A nationally if not internationally (but I would prefer both).

 

[mycelticblessing]

Dance-I pay the most attention to this discipline out of all four, and I definitely think it's very open at this point. At these past Worlds the standings really moved around and I credit CoP with that, there isn't as much "waiting your turn" (Virtue and Moir anyone?). However, I'm interested to see what will happen regarding Dom/Shab upon their return and K/N; K/N now have a world medal under their belt whereas Dom/Shab do not (I know, they would most likely have if they didn't withdraw). I personally hope that K/N will be the top Russian team now as I prefer them anyway to D/S. As for the Canadians, I don't really see D/L coming back. They seem to be enjoying where they are now, and well, V/M have become such a force that that might influence their decision. I don't see F/S (overrated at Wch IMO) challenging. As for the Americans, it really depends on this next season. Of course, my favorite team is D/W, but they won't challenge unless they become more polished. If they achieve that, then I think they'll move ahead of B/A nationally if not internationally.

I don't think F/S were overrated at all.. I think they have really improved, and I especially loved their FD. It was performed so beautifully.

I like D/W much more than B/A. I really hope they move ahead of them BOTH nationally and internationally next season!!:yes:

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Thanks to all who have assessed the current status of the skaters and Teams. It is very gratifying to see that you have not been influenced by your own nationality but can appraise the skaters otherwise.

There is no doubt, barring any injuries or health issues, that the 2010 Olympics are going to be, arguably, the most anticipated Olys by all the Federations because there is no real front runner in any of the Divisions.

The forthcoming LA Worlds, imo, will be yet another clue as to whether skaters or Teams move ahead of the Pack to 2010.

There will also be a set of GPs just before the Main Event in Vancouver. However, imo, they are not totally international events, and their Finals do not always have the best skaters for whatever reasons. They are useful to see some improvements in the skaters.

Joe

 

[Tinymavy15]

Good thread. I think we will have to wait until after LA to see how much to expect from Caroline, Marai and Racheal. I agree with Joe that Mao is doing everything right, although I have to wonder if she is going to be able to keep that 3 axel reasonably consistent for 2 more years. and is she going to get a new coach or just skate alone?

I think that Yu-na can win by 20 points if she is healthy. But she always seems to be injured at the wrong time.

Johnny Weir is actually on the right track to me. He is trying the quad more often, he seems dedicated and has a much better attitude towards everything.

It seems that Domina and Shabalin are going to have another russain reign underway by then.

 

[chuckm]

Men
Front-runners:
Lambiel
Joubert
Buttle
Takahashi

There have been rumors that Lambiel is about to retire. Lambiel's skating has declined precipitously since his 2006 Worlds win. I don't see him as a frontrunner at all, even if he decides not to retire. I am not sure Joubert can sustain his place near or at the top for two more seasons.

Ladies
Front-runners:
Kim
Asada

I think all the other ladies at the moment are either untested at the senior level, have not been embraced by the judges, or are too inconsistent to threaten for gold at this moment in time due to injuries and/or nerves.

No argument there. Arakawa and Cohen were the top skaters at Worlds 2004.

Pairs
Front-runners:
Shen/Zhao (I keep hearing they are certain to come back. *hopes so*)
Savchenko/Szolkowy
Pang/Tong
Zhang/Zhang

Pang/Tong are probably on their way down, and I am not sure Shen/Zhao will be competitive. I think more teams will become competitors next season.

Dance
Front-runners:
Virtue/Moir
Delobel/Schoenfelder (if they stay eligible)
Dubreuil/Lauzon (if they return)
Domnina/Shabalin

I think DelShoes will retire and Dubreuil/Lauzon will not return. I think you have to add B/A and D/W to the list instead of those two.

 

[Bennett]

I think it's too soon to predict anything for the Olympics. So much can happen between now and then.

In the men's event, I think the general pool of contenders will stay about the same going into Vancouver: Joubert, Lambiel, Takahashi, Buttle, Verner, Lysacek, Weir. It's possible that Voronov, Oda, or Chan could break into that group; and if Plushenko comes back, he could as well. But at this point, there's no way to predict who will actually win.

I agree with the list. I feel that Lysacek, Takahashi, and Verner may have a better chance than others because they are more balanced, all-round skaters with relatively more reliable jumps. I agree with another poster that we cannot be so sure to see Lambiel out there skating two more years.

I feel that Verner could grow really dramatically in two years. I don't think his vulnerability at worlds is going to be a permanent problem for him. I hope that he could overcome it by experience.

Lysacek could be the strongest if he is on, but he is not really consistent.

Daisuke's biggest enemy would be his nerves. Honestly, I don't expect to see 100% of Daisuke at the Olympics. Who isn't nervous at the biggest event like the Olympics when you go there as one of the contenders? Even at the 2007 Worlds where he was seen truly impressive, he looked to me like only 75% compared to him at Nationals. He seems really soft-hearted and sensitive by nature. I still am not really sure how much he could maintain his usual self at the Olympics. In any case, I have faith in him that he would do at least better than he did at this Worlds.

I feel that Oda is unpredictable at all because we haven't seen him for a long time. But I read his coach Barkell's interview that he is training very hard and is in a good shape and has taken ballet lessons to enhance sophistication (he has taken ballet even before being off from the competitions). If he doesn't worry about other things too much, he could do the Jeff Buttle I am afraid that the other guys may end up doing a self-destructive quad contest like the previous Olympics.

The ladies event is the most unsettled of all. Right now, Mao Asada and Yu-Na Kim dominate the field. Yet, neither of these girls is nearly as firmly ensconced at the top as, say, Michelle Kwan and Irina Slutskaya were in the 1999-2002 era. Mao is one of the greatest talents the sport has ever seen; but she is emotionally fragile and susceptible to crumbling under pressure. Moreover, she has no triple salchow and has underrotation problems on her triple/triples. Despite her enormous talent, I feel she is highly vulnerable as a competitor. Yu-Na has stronger nerves as a competitor, but her recurring injury problems make me wonder if she can stay healthy through Vancouver. I am a little afraid hers could be a Kwan- or Lipinski-type situation, in which the injuries may potentially be much more serious than anyone except Yu-Na and those close to her know.

So I feel like it's absolutely possible that either Mao or Yu-Na could win in Vancouver (and I'm rooting for Mao); but I also feel it's very likely that someone else could step in if Yu-Na continues to suffer injuries or Mao continues to struggle with her nerves and jumps. Waiting in the wings is not only Kostner, Ando, Rochette, and the very underrated Nakano, but also, of course, the younger American girls. We don't know what will happen with Flatt, Nagasu, and Zhang over the next few years; they could succumb to growth problems, OR they could become the next Mao/Yu-Na and completely dominate the sport. There is just absolutely no way of predicting right now. It should make for exciting watching the next 2 years!

Well said! I agree that this may be the game for Yuna, Mao, or some youngstars. I feel that Mao may become emotionally fragile at the Olympics. Despite the enormous talent, she has barely had an easy win since her senior debut because of the emotional ups and downs. Besides the rules are getting more and more worrysome for her and she needs to work really a lot to relearn what she has now. Compared to Yuna, maintaining the difficult 3A and all the edge calls and URs may keep giving her more things to worry.
I am not sure if we'd see Miki at the Olympics. She didn't seem to be in a competitive shape this season and often looked like lacking motivations. I am afraid that she could feel motivated in spirit, but her mind and body might not be able to follow it. Looking back the last three years, she has more often than not looked tired emotionally and/or physically.

 

[romanoff81]

Well I totally disagree I think Virtue and Moir will overtake the overrated Domnina and Shabalin next year win worlds in LA and go in as favorites in their home country I think they will clearly be the favorites.
Men Is open with several fighting for the top sport however if Buttle can get the quad he will be a force his artistry is so superior to everyone else when he skates clean I mean he won worlds by ten points without the quad.
Ladies I think Asada is the favorite she's a jumping machine much like Lipinski was.
Pairs I think the germans, chinese and Canadians will be fighting for medals.

 

[museksk8r]

I think you have to add B/A and D/W to the list instead of those two.

Personally, I don't see the Americans as a threat for Olympic gold. I would LOVE, LOVE, LOVE to see Charlie and Meryl win gold, but I don't see the judges allowing that to happen.

 

[screech]

If he doesn't worry about other things too much, he could do the Jeff Buttle

Hehe, this made me think of 'Do the Hustle' but 'Do the Buttle!' That could be our new term - to come back and kick a$$ after being written off will henceforth be referred to as 'doing the buttle'

Anyways, I think ALL events are wide open. I tend to focus mostly on mens though...

It amuses me now that after 1 good (major) competition people are putting Jeff up there, whereas before worlds he was considered washed up and hadn't won a major medal since the 2006 Olympics. I'd say that the ones who have the consistent talent and ability to be considered threats are Joubert and Takahashi. Those 2 (if things stay similar to how they are now and have been the past 2 seasons) would be fighting for the gold. Bronze would be up for grabs between about 50 guys - Jeff, Evan, Johnny, Stephane, Tomas, Oda (if he comes back how he was 2 years ago), Chan (if he progresses how he has been), and probably many more

But to actually get back to the actual title of this thread, who is on track I'd say Patrick Chan is the most on track. He has a consistent triple axel now (which he didn't even have a year ago) and is working on getting a 2nd one in his program. After that will come the quad... he is slowly but surely working to improve his difficulty and is doing it with great timing, skill and planning to get him on track for the Olympics.

 

[russell30]

In agreement with most people, it seems early days to predict the favourites for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Games, we will have to wait until after LA to place our bets, but it seems to be interesting and there now seems to be a handful of potential winners than there has been in previous Games.

I feel that at this years World's we did not see the best of the skaters skills like we saw at Tokyo 07, the Ladies and Pairs were disappointing to watch but I did see potential.

Pairs:

Savchenko/Szolkowy will probably be the leading contenders going into the Games. I do see Shen/Zhao returning they have the desire and will be challenging. I do see the other contenders being Dube/Davison, Kawaguchi/Smirnov, Mukhortova/Trankov and the new American team of Brubaker/McLaughlin. Zhang/Zhang and Pang/Tong do not seem favourable to the judges but will be in the mix.

Mens:

I will agree with most people that Joubert, Verner, Lambiel and Takahashi will be the favourites, but I think you will have to put Patrick Chan, Stephen Carriere and Even Lysacek in the mix, not forgetting Adam Rippon and Sergei Voronov. I can see Plushenko returning but I cannot see him being the force he once was as everyone else around him has improved so much since Torino, but you cannot count him out as he is just a great competitor.

Ice Dance:

Probably the most competitive of the four and definately have to wait until after LA to get a better indication. You will have to go with Domnina/Shabalin, Virtue/Moir and Khocklova/Novitski in the running along with Davis/White and perhaps Pechalat/Bourzat. I don't think Delobel/Schoenfelder and Belbin/Agosto will be in the mix it seems from the judges that they might have had their time and I cannot see Dubreuil/Lauzon returning (although I would like them to be there).

Ladies:

Is the most interesting, I dont think that Asada or Kim will be the winner, they will be among the front runners but I can see a surprise here and maybe it will be one of the young americans that will steal the show. The judges seem to be impressed with Kostner, Kostner has the guns and has a great coach and people behind her and I think she will be one of the medal winners. Rochette has improved this season and seems to be back on track, if she keeps improving she will be among the contenders. Again the judges liked Korpi this season particularly in her SP, she has the looks and grace to be one of the greats and to be the next Witt, she could be one of the contenders to?, Jenni Vahamaa could be in the mix too and so to Laura Lepisto (both Vahamaa and Lepisto need the Flip and Lutz though, they have the artistry and soft edge work) Be interesting this one!!

We will see who comes out top next season!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

It's not a prediction thread. It's who among his/her competitors is looking like a contender for a possible gold. That, of course, is subject to change after LA. Most fans only look at the last compettion to draw their conclusions.

Joe

 

[Winnipeg]

In Mens:

I will agree with most people that Joubert, Verner, Lambiel and Takahashi will be the favourites, but I think you will have to put Patrick Chan, Stephen Carriere and Even Lysacek in the mix, not forgetting Adam Rippon and Sergei Voronov. I can see Plushenko returning but I cannot see him being the force he once was as everyone else around him has improved so much since Torino, but you cannot count him out as he is just a great competitor.

I don't see how you can leave out Buttle..............