Who's on Track for Vancouver and Will LA Tell Us More?

[museksk8r]

In Mens:

I will agree with most people that Joubert, Verner, Lambiel and Takahashi will be the favourites, but I think you will have to put Patrick Chan, Stephen Carriere and Even Lysacek in the mix, not forgetting Adam Rippon and Sergei Voronov. I can see Plushenko returning but I cannot see him being the force he once was as everyone else around him has improved so much since Torino, but you cannot count him out as he is just a great competitor.

I don't see how you can leave out Buttle..............

I agree, Winnipeg. It's shocking to me to see Stephen Carriere considered as an Olympic medal threat and not Jeffrey Buttle.

 

[Bennett]

Bronze would be up for grabs between about 50 guys -

That's really widely open

 

[chuckm]

Personally, I don't see the Americans as a threat for Olympic gold. I would LOVE, LOVE, LOVE to see Charlie and Meryl win gold, but I don't see the judges allowing that to happen.

I thought we were talking PODIUM, not gold exclusively. And whether or not you see a US team as a threat, that may not be how it turns out.

 

[ManyCairns]

Thinking of "on track" as having a plan of progression and training that will have you peak at the Olys, I'd say:

Ladies: Kim and Asada are doing what they can. Kim may be on the ascendant if she stays injury free, but they could both be de-railed by the new young(er) guns, who may be fresher and hotter in two years' time. Kim and Asada (through no fault of their own) may seem almost like old hat by then, just due to the timing of the Olympic cycle. But they can minimize any such effect by continuing to improve and (esp. for Kim) trying to stay injury-free.

Men: Joubert clearly has a plan. Lambiel I think will retire. Weir clearly has a game plan, which he began implementing with the coaching change. Takahashi seems happy with how things are going, and he's certainly stretching himself artistically, but just as an outsider he doesn't seem to have an articulated plan to peak at Olys -- he seems to just take each event as it comes (and there's certainly nothing wrong with that especially if it suits your competitive temperament better). Lysacek definitely is on track provided he doesn't pound away at his body too much. Is he completely over his boot problems and injury?

Dance: Hoo boy, I still think it's D/S, but K/N can't be overlooked since they stepped up to the plate in D/S's absence at this Worlds. V/M are obviously improving. B/A have to see if they can make the judges give them another look. I'd love to see D/W at least considered a possible threat for bronze, but they haven't articulated a strategy to break out and get themselves noticed, at least so far.

Pairs: Sav/Sol obviously on track and seem ready to hold it through the next two seasons, but D/D, if they increase their technical content, could definitely be on track to peak at the right time, and on home turf, too. I think it's too early to predict whether McL/Bru will live up to the hype.


Nice question.

 

[lmarie086]

Men-There is a very deep men's field right now, although as someone else said it's a bit inconsistent at times. Things to consider: will Evan Lysacek's boot problems prevail? or will he? Will Stephane Lambiel even be competing anymore? This next season will give us a better idea, but nothing will be better than the 09-10 season for indications IMO. The ones to watch for: Brian Joubert, Daisuke Takahashi :yes:, Johnny Weir, Tomas Verner, Evan Lysacek. Possible darkhorses: Sergei Voronov, Patrick Chan, Adam Rippon. I really don't know where to place Jeff Buttle in all this but I hesitate to exclude him.
It would be my hope that Plushenko doesn't return. He got his gold in Torino; unless his plan is to come back for the sheer joy of competiting (regardless of final placements), I would rather he doesn't compete in Vancouver.

Pairs-I don't follow this field very much at all, but if S/S can keep improving and keep it up I see them at least on the podium if not leaving with the OGM. I can't say if either of the Russian teams will improve enough by that time to maintain the golden tradition, but we'll see as time goes on. D/D could also prove to be a real contender, but that depend on their getting a triple twist or not. There may well be another Canadian team pushing for contention (D/B (?I think it's them) impress me a lot) P/T and Z/Z should never really be counted out, but I don't see either as contenders for the top spot, but for the podium yes. I don't know what to say about the Americans, but probably the best hope would be M/B; and that depends on how much they develop in these next two seasons, although I do think they'll do well at Wch next season. Finally, the possible return of Shen/Zhao. I would probably jump up and down to hear that they are returning for Vancouver, but I hope they would only do so if they are up to it.

Ladies-I think the two that are most clearly on track are Asada and Kim; however they both have their own issues to work out. Asada needs more consistency and stronger nerves, and Kim needs to not get injured so much (it makes me sad). After them, I really have no idea. If the Americans gain back the third spot I think the team will be Caroline, Mirai, Rachel (although I would love to see Katrina really become a force, but that's just me) but I don't really see one of them contending for gold just yet. A spot on the podium is plausible, but not the top spot. Not my favorite skater, but Kostner is well liked by the judges and is usually well received, so she'll probably be up there. I would personally love to see both Rochette and Meier up in the top spots as well. Actually, Nakano too.

This is a really good thread, thanks for starting it.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Men-There is a very deep men's field right now, although as someone else said it's a bit inconsistent at times. Things to consider: will Evan Lysacek's boot problems prevail? or will he? Will Stephane Lambiel even be competing anymore? This next season will give us a better idea, but nothing will be better than the 09-10 season for indications IMO. The ones to watch for: Brian Joubert, Daisuke Takahashi :yes:, Johnny Weir, Tomas Verner, Evan Lysacek. Possible darkhorses: Sergei Voronov, Patrick Chan, Adam Rippon. I really don't know where to place Jeff Buttle in all this but I hesitate to exclude him.
It would be my hope that Plushenko doesn't return. He got his gold in Torino; unless his plan is to come back for the sheer joy of competiting (regardless of final placements), I would rather he doesn't compete in Vancouver.

I highly doubt that we will be hide or hair of Mr. Plushenko in Vancover. he already has a olympic gold and silver, and I have heard enough rumors about his coming back "next season" to make me never want to hear about it again.

I think that as of right now the Men's competition is pretty much wide open. This past worlds, i thought that Takahashi would steal the show... but he didn't live up to expectations and didn't even get a medal. meanwhile I readily counted Jeff out of the top 7, and yet he found a way to win. I think that anything could happen, but we will know more next year at this time.

As for Evan, I really hope that things straighten out for him. I do not want him to fall like Timmy did. Hopefully he has good equipment now and is healed. I think that he should get a new LP for next season... the Zorro SP was pretty good, I would not mind if he kept it, but I really would not like to see another year of Tosca.

 

[merrybari]

As for Evan, I really hope that things straighten out for him. I do not want him to fall like Timmy did. Hopefully he has good equipment now and is healed. I think that he should get a new LP for next season... the Zorro SP was pretty good, I would not mind if he kept it, but I really would not like to see another year of Tosca.

I think the equipment issue was a fluke and will not be a problem in the future. He's repeatedly said this past season was a building year for him with emphasis not on results but on building skills. I believe he's right on target to peak in Vancouver. Barring any circumstances beyond his control, he'll be right where he wants to be.

He has not only trained the physical aspects but all that he's gone through has trained him mentally - he's about as tough as they come. I believe he will be a force to be reckoned with in a very strong men's field, where on any given day, each of those contending has beaten the other.

Will be very exciting to watch what develops in the years leading to VAncouver. The fans are in for a real treat and the ride of our lives. Hang on tight!! :agree:

 

[mycelticblessing]

Pairs-I don't follow this field very much at all, but if S/S can keep improving and keep it up I see them at least on the podium if not leaving with the OGM. I can't say if either of the Russian teams will improve enough by that time to maintain the golden tradition, but we'll see as time goes on. D/D could also prove to be a real contender, but that depend on their getting a triple twist or not. There may well be another Canadian team pushing for contention (D/B (?I think it's them) impress me a lot) P/T and Z/Z should never really be counted out, but I don't see either as contenders for the top spot, but for the podium yes. I don't know what to say about the Americans, but probably the best hope would be M/B; and that depends on how much they develop in these next two seasons, although I do think they'll do well at Wch next season. Finally, the possible return of Shen/Zhao. I would probably jump up and down to hear that they are returning for Vancouver, but I hope they would only do so if they are up to it.

I'd hate to see S/S win OGM. They were really sloppy at Sweden, and I think Z/Z were robbed. Their style doesn't impress me much either.

Sadly, I don't see the Russian tradition continuing. The top two teams have great potential, but I doubt they'll improve in time to win Gold in Vancouver. However, I do believe that the pairs champion in 2014 will be Russian.

I think the other Canadian team would be L/H instead. They are really great skaters and have improved with every season. In fact I like them better than D/D. I really hope they will be in contention for a medal in Vancouver.

If S/Z return and are still in good form, They may beat all the other contenders by a mile. They were the best in the field both technically and artistically at Worlds last year. They would have been in contention for Gold in Turin if not for Zhao's injury.

 

[hockeyfan228]

I think that the skaters most on track for Vancouver are Virtue/Moir. They're on an upward trajectory among the leaders.

I also think Kawaguchi/Smirnov are also being tracked for the podium. They were close enough this year with not much speed, an LP that fizzled and became increasingly error-prone as it went on, and little unison. I was not impressed with them in either program, although I am very impressed with him individually and used to love her. That sets them up for the podium, if not the championship, if they become more polished and consistent.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think that the skaters most on track for Vancouver are Virtue/Moir. They're on an upward trajectory among the leaders.

I also think Kawaguchi/Smirnov are also being tracked for the podium. They were close enough this year with not much speed, an LP that fizzled and became increasingly error-prone as it went on, and little unison. I was not impressed with them in either program, although I am very impressed with him individually and used to love her. That sets them up for the podium, if not the championship, if they become more polished and consistent.

Yes indeed. Virtue/Moir are on track. I also think Joubert is on track. It's only a battle between the two front running Ladies. The young American girls are still green for seniors. For Pairs, imo, there are none at this time. K/S look to me mismatched.

Joe

 

[mycelticblessing]

Yes indeed. Virtue/Moir are on track. I also think Joubert is on track. It's only a battle between the two front running Ladies. The young American girls are still green for seniors. For Pairs, imo, there are none at this time. K/S look to me mismatched.

Joe

The Men's field will probably have the most competitors who can threaten the podium, followed closely by ice-dance. I think between Mao and YuNa, Mao stands a better chance for Gold in 2010. The pairs event looks like its going to be disappointing this time around. It's not like 2006, where there was no doubt that T/M would take Gold. K/S are mismatched. I think it's her height.. Moskvina has miraculouslly managed to make them work out though..

 

[Jaana]

I think that during the years lots of times the podium of previous Worlds has shown, which lady skater might win or at least stand on the Olympic podium. Arakawa in 2006 Olympics was an exception. She did not have the extra pressure of being the reigning World champion. IIRC, Japanese Federation mentioned something about that purpose already during the 2004/2005 seaon.

In men´s skating Scott Hamilton was the last reigning World champion to win at the Olympics and the year was 1984... Again, the Worlds podium in L.A. might show the 2010 winner, or it might not, LOL. The L.A. podium probably will show one or two medalists at least.

Realistically looking, to me the men´s front-runners seem to be (in spite of 2008 Worlds) this moment:

- Takahashi
- Joubert
- Verner
- Lysacek

Maybe Lambiel also, but I wonder if he is even staying in eligible skating? About Plushenko, who knows, it may be that there will be no comeback at all. Maybe Weir also, but can he handle the pressure of the freeskate?

Generally speaking, the skating e.g. in men´s and ladies´ discipline has been a lot less predictable during some years now, and I have enjoyed this unpredictablity a lot.

 

[cristina]

This year results in Worlds convince more and more how unpredictable is figure skating.
In mens and ladies 6 or 7 contenders can win, nobody knows.
It surprises me, that many people here think, that Lambiel will retire. Why should he? He didn't say a word about that after Worlds. He had a muscular injury in Worlds - and he didn't say a word about that too.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The Men's field will probably have the most competitors who can threaten the podium, followed closely by ice-dance. I think between Mao and YuNa, Mao stands a better chance for Gold in 2010. The pairs event looks like its going to be disappointing this time around. It's not like 2006, where there was no doubt that T/M would take Gold. K/S are mismatched. I think it's her height.. Moskvina has miraculouslly managed to make them work out though..

That's not the point. Who among these skaters is showing progress toward winning the Olys? This thread is based on what you have seen last year. It is not a prediction thread. There will be plenty of that when the time comes.

Joe

 

[merrybari]

Men:
Evan who has spent this past season building skills in all elements, sacrificing immediate results for long-term goals. This is the plan he and Frank have had all season, and I believe it has been most successful.

Ladies:
Haven't paid much attention to ladies - the men's competition has been so engrossing it's taken most of my time. That said, I'm thinking Yu-Na and/or Mao.

Pairs:
Any body's guess.

Dance:
Belbin/Agosto - had a great start with a new softer sytle developing. New coach could bring new vision and new life after Worlds.
Virtue/Moir
Davis/White

 

[moviechick]

If the trend continues in the men's field, I would say: Do not skate your best at 2009 worlds if you want the Olympic Gold!

Ilia Kulik bombed at 1997 Worlds (off the podium), won in 1998. Alexei Yagudin was famously injured, bombed in QR, fought his way back to a silver in 2001 (not a bad result, except to him). Plushenko was also not healthy at Worlds 2005, bombed in the short program and withdrew.

 

[NatachaHatawa]

If the trend continues in the men's field, I would say: Do not skate your best at 2009 worlds if you want the Olympic Gold!

Ilia Kulik bombed at 1997 Worlds (off the podium), won in 1998. Alexei Yagudin was famously injured, bombed in QR, fought his way back to a silver in 2001 (not a bad result, except to him). Plushenko was also not healthy at Worlds 2005, bombed in the short program and withdrew.

Good point! The fact is we won't know who's going to win any of the events until we actually see the results.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Good point! The fact is we won't know who's going to win any of the events until we actually see the results.

but we can see who is on track for the big events by following the GPs and see if there is improvement not necesarily medals.

Evan, btw, did very well in the Japan open and showed a lot of improvement over his Nats. Let's see if he can keep that up.

Joe

 

[NatachaHatawa]

but we can see who is on track for the big events by following the GPs and see if there is improvement not necesarily medals.
Joe

Of course. What I meant was that unlike for the last Olys, the winners aren't obviouse.
For the 2006 games it was pretty obvious for two years that T&M, N&K and Plush were going to win gold, whereas for these games we'll be able to guess who's on the podium but nothing is sure concerning who'll win gold.

 

[hockeyfan228]

Except for a win at GPF, which has sometimes seemed like the "we threw you a bone, and you can forget another one at the major championships."