Why do people look to junior events for clues?

[Kasey]

Anyone who half believes junior events are anymore then mommies and daddies and coaches making up the results are delusional.

Anyone who reads a post of yours and expects it to be unbiased and make sense is delusional. Ugh, time to update the ignore list.

 

[Sylvia]

Some skating fans (myself included) enjoy watching the levels below senior, preferably in person at club competitions and at Regionals/Sectionals/Nationals/Junior Grand Prix/Junior Worlds, because there are some really fine and talented skaters and skating performances, both with and without triple/quad jumps, that aren't televised. It is a fact that the majority of competitive skaters in the U.S. will never make it to Nationals or even to the senior level (due to burnout, injury, change of focus/interest, finances, etc.), and will usually reach their skating peak at the lower levels. I find it satisfying as a fan to follow young skaters' progress from the lower levels and it's just icing on the cake if he/she/teams succeed in qualifying for Nationals and beyond.

For example, I think I first saw Kimmie Meissner compete at the Intermediate level in 2001 and noticed her talent even though she didn't qualify out of Regionals to Nationals that year, and then I watched her come back strongly the following season to win the 2003 Novice National title. Now look what she's achieved just 3 years later! Another good example is Emily Hughes. I first saw her compete in the fall of 2000 when she was a young Novice with a bad flutz and underrotated triples. However, she had the same smile and joy in her skating back then, and I was impressed when she fixed her flutz and the rest of her jumps over time. I never thought that Emily could have made the 2006 Olympic team based on what I saw of her skating in the period between 2000-2003. But that's the unpredictability of skating -- the improvement curve and progression rate of young skaters can vary greatly from skater to skater and from year to year. And that's why I don't like to make public predictions based solely on competition results at the lower levels.

 

[JonnyCoop]

Sorry but anytime Lambiel and Lysacek would do programs with the same jumps and the panel would put Lysacek ahead it obviously was a junior event with judges cheating. Lambiel was 4th at the 2002 Europeans only a year later, even without a triple axel or quad, but then again that was in front of senior judges who judge skating and not what they were told by mommy, papa, and coaches of skaters. Lysacek does not do a single thing better, jumps, spins, footwork, artistry, skating skills, nothing. Also Weir missing a jump in the short and being over both, even though he did do a harder combination, would never happen in a senior event.

Also would like to add funny how the Russian women who swept the 96 world juniors podium were never heard from again.

I find it interesting you would rant about "junior level judging" re. Lysacek and Lambiel given the fact that any sampling of your posts on various subjects (which often seem to come around to this point) also implies strongly a pro-Lysacek, anti-Lambiel bias on the SENIOR level as well. No mommies, papas, and coaches having a hand in it there, one would assume....

regarding the young Russian ladies: at the time of their podium sweep, Russia had a pretty solid senior block of Slutskaya, Butrskaya, and Markova, then Sokolova emerged soon after; this is the team they sent to Euros and Worlds for years. Ivanova, Kaneava, and Pingacheva couldn't get past this block at their young ages, and for whatever reason were unable to wait it out for a slot to open at Euros and Worlds. Bad timing. I'll bet Russia, given the depth problem they have now, would love to have any of those ladies around now. And there's a whole list of Junior Worlds ladies medallists, from various countries, for various reasons, were never heard from again.

 

[Vash01]

I think people look for potential when they watch the junior level skaters. Many junior worlds medallists have gone on to win medals at worlds and Olympics. Sometimes they are not successful past the junior level, but that percentage has to be relatively low. It is like scouts from pro (e.g. NFL) teams watching college players to see who could develop into successful NFL players for their teams. They are not always successful in who they pick, but it is a good place to find out talent, in a competition environment. Of course we are not recruiting for any pro team, but I am sure the powers in their home countries are watching the junior level skaters very carefully. I watch them just to see if there are any possible future stars in them. When I watched Kimmie, Miki and Mao I thought they all had potential. I was not sure about Katy Taylor and Mai Asada (Mao's sister). I could be wrong about Katy. I am not sure Mai will make the Japanese world team.

Vash

 

[slutskayafan21]

I find it interesting you would rant about "junior level judging" re. Lysacek and Lambiel given the fact that any sampling of your posts on various subjects (which often seem to come around to this point) also implies strongly a pro-Lysacek, anti-Lambiel bias on the SENIOR level as well. No mommies, papas, and coaches having a hand in it there, one would assume....

Like I said senior judging is not perfect but atleast it has some semblance of credability and is not just mommies, daddies, and coaches making up the results in group gatherings with coaches in the stands.

regarding the young Russian ladies: at the time of their podium sweep, Russia had a pretty solid senior block of Slutskaya, Butrskaya, and Markova, then Sokolova emerged soon after; this is the team they sent to Euros and Worlds for years. Ivanova, Kaneava, and Pingacheva couldn't get past this block at their young ages, and for whatever reason were unable to wait it out for a slot to open at Euros and Worlds. Bad timing. I'll bet Russia, given the depth problem they have now, would love to have any of those ladies around now. And there's a whole list of Junior Worlds ladies medallists, from various countries, for various reasons, were never heard from again.

Intersting how Tara Lipinski though blew by the same Slutskaya and Butyrskaya, you know the Tara that was 4th in the World junior long program even landing all her difficult jumps.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I think people look for potential when they watch the junior level skaters. Many junior worlds medallists have gone on to win medals at worlds and Olympics. Sometimes they are not successful past the junior level, but that percentage has to be relatively low. It is like scouts from pro (e.g. NFL) teams watching college players to see who could develop into successful NFL players for their teams. They are not always successful in who they pick, but it is a good place to find out talent, in a competition environment. Of course we are not recruiting for any pro team, but I am sure the powers in their home countries are watching the junior level skaters very carefully. I watch them just to see if there are any possible future stars in them. When I watched Kimmie, Miki and Mao I thought they all had potential. I was not sure about Katy Taylor and Mai Asada (Mao's sister). I could be wrong about Katy. I am not sure Mai will make the Japanese world team.

Vash

One of us should try making a list of how many World junior winners have gone on to do NOTHING, and how many future champions have never medaled at World juniors. It wouldnt be near the minority you might think.

As for the football example I agree mostly, but just for the record did you know Tom Brady was taken in the 6th round.

 

[debdelilah]

One of us should try making a list of how many World junior winners have gone on to do NOTHING, and how many future champions have never medaled at World juniors.

Is that surprising? Juniors are boys and girls, not men and women. They aren't just mini-copies of their future selves--growing up changes them for better or worse. Not every girl who jumps well as a girl will jump well as a woman.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Is that surprising? Juniors are boys and girls, not men and women. They aren't just mini-copies of their future selves--growing up changes them for better or worse. Not every girl who jumps well as a girl will jump well as a woman.

I am not talking about just "girls", I am talking about all 4 events. For the record though girls judging at the world juniors is probably the worst of all 4 events, and that is saying alot considering how bad the other 3 are.

 

[JonnyCoop]

Intersting how Tara Lipinski though blew by the same Slutskaya and Butyrskaya, you know the Tara that was 4th in the World junior long program even landing all her difficult jumps.

I don't think the fact that she did this 1 or 2 seasons AFTER finishing behind Ivanova, Pingacheva, and Kanaeva proves much of anything; a skater that young can mature a lot in one year.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I don't think the fact that she did this 1 or 2 seasons AFTER finishing behind Ivanova, Pingacheva, and Kanaeva proves much of anything; a skater that young can mature a lot in one year.

Either way did you see the 96 world juniors for ladies? If you did you would see that Tara should have atleast beaten Pingacheva and Kanaeva in the long program portion anyway, it was blatantly obvious, and I would bet my house that in front of a senior panel that would have happened. Just like I would bet my house that a senior panel would have judged the 94 ladies differently where eventual World senior bronze medalist took 4th at World juniors with basicaly the same performances she did at Senior Worlds, the 2001 mens short program differently, and the pairs event in 2004 differently. The worst senior judging cant come up to the average junior judging in incompetence but because they are junior events and no matter really cares they get away with it.

 

[chuckm]

Here's a compilation of World Junior results (at least the ones I have). Skaters who have gone on to medal at Senior Worlds are in bold type. Many skaters who didn't win medals at Worlds may have medaled at the GP and/or Euros/4CC.


JUNIOR WORLDS
1994
MEN: Weiss [age 17], Shigematsu, Michael; (4) Yagudin [age 13], (11) Kulik [age 16]
LADIES: Kwan [age 13], Czako, Slutskaya [age 14]

1995
MEN: Kulik, Cerez, Suzuki; (14) Goebel [age 14]
LADIES: Slutskaya, Ivanova, Czako; (4) Lipinski [age 12]

1996
MEN: Yagudin, Honda, Guo; (6) Plushenko [age 13], (7) Goebel
LADIES: Ivanova, Pingatcheva, Kanaeva; (4) Suguri [age 15], (5) Lipinski Note: Lipinski was 15th at ’96 Senior Worlds.
PAIRS: Maksuta/Zhovnirsky, Fionenko/Marchenko, Hartsell/Hartsell
DANCE: Davydova/Kostomarov, Delobel/Schoenfelder, Gudina/Kurkudym; (9) Belova/Staviyski

1997
MEN: Plushenko, Goebel, Guo
LADIES: Vogel, Sokolova, Ivanova; (4) Suguri
DANCE: Ulanova/Stifounin, Potdykova/Petukhov, Blasowska/Lozubek

1998
MEN: Delmore, Davydov, Yunfei Li; (4) Klimkin [age 18]
LADIES: Soldatova, Ivanova, Volchkova
PAIRS: Obertas/Palamarchuk, Nikolaeva/Sokolov, Maksuta/Zhovnirsky
DANCE: Joseph/Butler, Faiella/Milo, Potdykova/Petukhov

1999
MEN: Klimkin, Restencourt, Takeuchi
LADIES: Timoshenko, Hughes [age 13], Volchkova
PAIRS: Obertas/Palamarchuk, Handy/Binnebose, Maksuta/Zhovnirsky, (8) Pang/Tong
DANCE: Silverstein/Pekarek, Faiella/Milo, Romaniuta/Barantsev

2000
MEN: Lindemann, Restencourt, Savoie; (4) Klimkin, (10) Lambiel [age 14] Note: Restencourt was 9th at 2000 Senior Worlds
LADIES: Kirk, Stellato, Meier; (6) Cohen (7) Nakano
PAIRS: Savchenko/Morozov, Obertas/Palamarchuk, Shapiro/Sokolov; (4) Zhang/Zhang
DANCE: Romaniuta/Barantsev, Nussear/Forsyth, Belbin/Agosto

2001
MEN: Weir, Lysacek, Restencourt; (5) Lambiel, (7) Buttle, (11) Shubin, (12) Dobrin, (16) Van Der Perren
LADIES: Oblasova, McDonough, Poykio; (4) Nakano, (8) Rochette, (11) Kostner
PAIRS: Zhang/Zhang, Kawaguchi/Markuntsov, Roth/McPherson
DANCE: Romaniuta/Barantsev, Belbin/Agosto, Khaliavina/Shabalin

2002
MEN: Takahashi, Van Der Perren, Timochenko; (14) Griazev
LADIES: McDonough, Nakano, Ando; (4) Liang, (5) Rochette, (9) Ota, (10) Kostner
PAIRS: Riabchuk/Zakharov, Karbovskaya/Slavnov, Ding/Ren
DANCE: Belbin/Agosto, Khaliavina/Shabalin, Romanovskaya/Grachev

2003
MEN: Shubin, Lysacek, Preaubert; (5) Dobrin
LADIES: Ota, Ando, Kostner; (6) Liang
PAIRS: Zhang/Zhang, Ding/Ren, Don/Hunt
DANCE: Domnina/Shabalin, Hoffmann/Elek, Romanovskaya/Grachev (11) Matthews/Zavozin

2004
MEN: Griazev, Lysacek, Brauninger; (8) Dobrin, (11) Oda (20) Othman
LADIES: Ando, Meissner, Taylor; (12) Gedevanishvili, (16) Korpi
PAIRS: Shestakova/Lebedev, Dube/Davison, Mukhortova/Trankov
DANCE: Romanovskaya/Grachev, Hoffmann/Elek, Matthews/Zavozin; (4) Mikhailova/Sergeev, (11) Virtue/Moir, (13) Davis/White

2005
MEN: Oda, Pensero, Dobrin;
LADIES: Mao Asada, Kim, E. Hughes; (4) Meissner, (5) Gedevanishvili
PAIRS: Mukhortova/Trankov, Dube/Davison, Kokoreva/Golovkin, (9) Vlassov/Meekins
DANCE: Matthews/Zavozin, Virtue/Moir, Gorshkova/Tkachenko; (5) Mikhailova/Sergeev

2006
MEN: Kozuka, Voronov, Ponsero
LADIES: Kim, Mao Asada, Zukowski,
PAIRS: Vlassov/Meekins, Moyle/Seitz, Krasilnokova/Bezmaternikh
DANCE: Virtue/Moir, Mikhailova/Sergeev, Davis/White

Some notes based on previous remarks:

Tara Lipinski was probably having a bad year when she finished 5th at JW in 1996, because she went on to Senior Worlds and finished 15th.

Vincent Restencourt had competed at Junior Worlds twice before receiving the first of 3 JW medals. In 2000, he finished 9th at Senior Worlds after medaling at JW; 2001 was his last year of eligibility, and he would have been 18 or 19 to Weir's 16 and Lysacek's and Lambiel's 15. Lambiel had a good QR and SP, but was 7th in the FS, finishing 5th overall. But 5th was a big improvement over Lambiel's 10th place in 2000. Lambiel did not compete in 2002 and may have been experiencing problems with his knee at that time.

It seems to me from looking at the JW results that many medalists (and non-medalists as well) have gone on to success at the senior level. Some medalists proved to be early bloomers who either faded as their bodies matured, or who could not remain competitive with their seniors.

One interesting observations: the many partner changes in both Pairs and Ice Dance. Many halves of the Pairs medalists went on to success with other partners at the Senior level. And it is truly amazing how many Russian Junior Pairs and Ice Dance teams disappeared off the radar after medaling as juniors. Their splits and re-pairings are just as or more numerous than those of US teams who have had nowhere near as much success.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Thanks for the list chuckm, it was very interesting. I still think junior events are not well judged at all compared to senior events, watching them on TV the years I did, and I stopped watching them after 2002 for that reason.

 

[antmanb]

Slutskayafan - do you have any examples or proof of parents and or coaches deciding the outcome of junior worlds?

Its an international panel of judges - how exactly does the skaters parent or coach get a mojirty of international judges to give tyheir child the win?

Amt

 

[antmanb]

Like I said senior judging is not perfect but atleast it has some semblance of credability and is not just mommies, daddies, and coaches making up the results in group gatherings with coaches in the stands.



Intersting how Tara Lipinski though blew by the same Slutskaya and Butyrskaya, you know the Tara that was 4th in the World junior long program even landing all her difficult jumps.

Because she matured as skater!!! Your arguments make no sense you seem to think that a skater on the junior circuit being judged differently on the senior circuit is a sign of corrupt judging on the junior circuit (and amazingly not on the senior circuit) but don't seem to entertain the idea that it might just possibly be because those same junior skaters skate differently in seniors!

Ant

 

[chuckm]

The other thing is that Juniors tend to be very inconsistent, skating very well in one event and bombing at another. Some develop skills very early and skate well, then go into a transition period where they struggle with their bodies due to growth issues. That happened to Irina Slutskaya in 1998-1999 and in a smaller way, to Michelle Kwan in 1997. Some never regain or further develop their skills after the transition or suffer injuries, such as Louann Donovan, Jenny Kirk and Deanna Stellato.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Slutskayafan - do you have any examples or proof of parents and or coaches deciding the outcome of junior worlds?

Its an international panel of judges - how exactly does the skaters parent or coach get a mojirty of international judges to give tyheir child the win?

Amt

I have read books from former skaters and former judges(although mostly disgrunted judges who write a book) who speak of it happening when referring back to junior days or junior events. I doubt they make it up, and watching how the junior events are judged on TV it becomes believable to me as well.

 

[chuckm]

In other words, slutskayafan, you have no evidence to back up what you say. Books by disgruntled former judges and skaters with an axe to grind are not evidence but hearsay. The same parties grumble about Senior events just as much, if not more, than they do about Juniors.

Judging is far from perfect, we all know that. But I don't see that Junior judging is any worse than what happens at the Senior level, and it is Senior judging that has the impact to make or break skating careers.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Because she matured as skater!!! Your arguments make no sense you seem to think that a skater on the junior circuit being judged differently on the senior circuit is a sign of corrupt judging on the junior circuit (and amazingly not on the senior circuit) but don't seem to entertain the idea that it might just possibly be because those same junior skaters skate differently in seniors!

Ant

Really so an example like Tonya Szewcenko coming 4th at Junior Worlds with the same performances(I saw both events, they were almost identicle skates)that she managed 3rd at the Senior Worlds, would be due to maturing as a skater? Sorry the events were only 3 months apart, and the month before that Szewcenko had won Nations Cup over World Champion Biaul. None of her Senior performances all year jibe with her landing all her jumps cleanly in the short, 5 of her 6 triples cleanly in the long and being beaten badly by Kwan, Czako(who landed only 3 triples in the long, and is only a jumper), and Slutskaya, that year.

In the case of Tara in 96 I did watch the junior event, and she did clearly outskate both Pingacheva and Kanaeva in the long program based just on that PROGRAM and what their abilities were at that time as well. Remember although Tara was 15th at Worlds she did come top 10 in the free skate didnt she? Her junior Worlds long program was equaly well skated to her 96 senior Worlds, and much better then her 96 Senior Nationals performance. I shudder to think where Pingacheva and Kanaeva would have placed at Worlds, when you look at Ivanova(who was miles better then both of them, and won the World juniors that year)and her showings on the senior circuit that year.

LIke I said most fans want to be naive and believe junior judging is legit in the same way senior judging(despite some controversy still existing) so I am not going to change peoples minds on that. I am not one of the naive ones however, and I look at the Junior Worlds as having the legitimacy of "Ice Wars" after watching it the 10 years or so I watched it, and how it was judged. If I watch it is to enjoy the skating, and laugh at the silly embarassment of the judging(although occasionaly an event is judged right).

 

[slutskayafan21]

In other words, slutskayafan, you have no evidence to back up what you say. Books by disgruntled former judges and skaters with an axe to grind are not evidence but hearsay. The same parties grumble about Senior events just as much, if not more, than they do about Juniors.

Judging is far from perfect, we all know that. But I don't see that Junior judging is any worse than what happens at the Senior level, and it is Senior judging that has the impact to make or break skating careers.

Junior judging is no worse then Senior judging, now that is a laugher.

So you find it believable that Szewcenko coming 4th at the 94 Junior Worlds with the same performance she came 3rd at the 94 Senior Worlds; while somebody like Kwan who was lower in the top 10 at Senior Worlds(she fell in the short, but was 8th in the long with a better long then she had at World juniors) would win the same event in a cakewalk; and somebody like Czako landing only 3 triples at Junior Worlds(and she is only a jumper)who was out of the top 10 at Senior Worlds that same year, would be 2nd at the same event, is something to the extent of ridiculousness that could ever happen on the senior circuit?

Do you also think at a Senior event you would ever seen Weir even doing a harder jump combo then Lambiel, miss a jump and still place over Lambiel in the short; or Lysacek and Lambiel skate cleanly with the same jumps and Lysacek come ahead; as happened in the 2001 World short program?

Do you honestly believe Tara Lipinski could ever land 7 triples in the long including one for her classic triple-triple loop combos and place out of the top 3 in the long program at JUNIOR Worlds even at the point of her immaturity she was at, at a SENIOR event.

Like I said if I could bet my house, for a second one if I were right, on not even one of those things ever happening if they could be hypothetical transferred to a senior panel I would.

I have some pairs and dance examples that I could find back on tape I am sure as well, of outrageous idiocies that go beyond anything you could possably ever see on the senior circuit.

 

[slutskayafan21]

In other words, slutskayafan, you have no evidence to back up what you say. Books by disgruntled former judges and skaters with an axe to grind are not evidence but hearsay. The same parties grumble about Senior events just as much, if not more, than they do about Juniors.

I concede the heresay part, but why would numerous people involved in skating formerly just make things up that arent true? Would it be to create controversy to get people to read that book, what would be the benefit? You are right the books I have read grumble about Senior events too, I give you that, however they refer to complicated processes of federations making deals and judges swapping of votes for their country; as opposed to just mothers and fathers talking to coaches and junior team leaders in the stands, who then go over and talk to judges, and talking about where htey want their kids to place. The way they refer to Senior Worlds in the books I have read are different then the way they refer to Junior Worlds as far as the type of manipulation that is done.