There's no one single variable.
Some people just don't have the mental toughness for competition. Or maybe they have a chronic injury but are keeping quiet about it. Or maybe they have bad technique that deserts them whenever nerves set in. Etc., etc., etc.
In addition to all of the above, I would also add that some skaters are just naturally able to jump higher than others. That ability can be trained to some degree with pliometrics and better technique in the use of speed and edges to get into the air, but largely it's just genetic.
So the natural big jumpers have more time in the air (fractions of seconds) to complete the rotation above the ice and start checking out, or to attempt another rotation. And when they get tired or get a less than optimal takeoff and don't jump as high as usual, they still have time to get the rotation done just as they return to the ice.
Whereas the smaller jumpers will usually finish rotating just as they return to the ice, which is often sufficient. But when they get tired or get a less than optimal takeoff and don't jump as high as usual, they can't finish the rotation before returning to the ice, so they have to either cheat the landing (which can be tiring in itself if it takes more work to hold onto an edge forced around on the ice than to just ride the flow of a perfect landing), or else they fall.
That's why men do can do harder jumps and combinations than women or can do the same jumps with more height and consistency. For the most part, they can jump higher.
And the very smaller jumpers never get any consistent triple jumps at all, so you never see them on TV. Unless they go into ice dance.
Plus, all the other factors evangeline mentioned can also come into play with both big and not-so-big jumpers.
In addition, I suspect that skaters now "backload" their jumps due to the CoP's 10% bonus points after the 2 minutes mark. Aside from all the factors contributing to unsucessful jumps, do you think the backloading jumps is also the factor contributing to the inconsistency in jumping after the 2minutes mark? That's my question.
Naturally, skaters tended to either frontload or evenly distributed jump elements in the pre-CoP era. Hence, my question is that does the CoP contribute to inconsistency in jump elements and also de-limits program make up? Those were my original questions.
Ah, OK. I wasn't clear from your first post if your problem with today's skating was the fact that the programs look too alike or that there were too many mistakes.
Not all skaters can or should backload their jumps. In most cases one GOE point is worth more than 10% of the jump, so if saving the jump for the bonus period is likely to result in lower quality or outright failure of the jump, it's strategically wiser to put it at the beginning before the lactic acid builds up. That's why we still mostly see the hardest jumps in the first few elements of the program, although the better conditioned skaters do try to take advantage of second-half bonus.
IJS long programs do follow more of a template than 6.0 programs did because the well-balanced program rules are stricter -- e.g., only 8 jumping passes total are allowed, now only three spins.
The short program layout didn't change until this year, when they took out a step sequence (or spiral sequence for ladies). So there was much less change in the way short programs were put together under IJS.
Allowing men to do quads and to do triple axels as the solo axel, changes that started in 1998-99 under 6.0, did encourage male skaters to frontload their short programs more than when the hardest allowed program was triple axel combo, triple lutz, and double axel.
Anyway, I've said often enough that I would like to see changes in the long program well-balanced program rules to allow more variety between different skaters' programs while still keeping them on a level playing field. But many of the potential alternative layouts I envision would actually be more aerobically challenging than what we tend to see today. So we'd still mostly see the same kind of layout we see now. And/or, we'd see more mistakes. Especially early in the season.
The sport just keeps getting more difficult as the best skaters of each era try to outdo each other and the next-best skaters try to keep up.