Will Sasha have any competition?

[Mathman]

I think Sokolova has the best chance for an upset. She skated a great short progam at Nebelhorn last week (58.70 points). This is on a pace to score 176 overall, which could put her in Sasha range. In the long, after a fine opening 3Lz/2T/2Lo she doubled 2 jumps and singled her Axel, but still won the LP over Meir and Liang.

Still, Sasha would have to make some mistakes. Her 122 point performance at Campbell's should put her in the 180 range overall.

MM

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I'm thinking Elena to get the number 2 spot. No one remembers her best skate at DC Worlds. I do, and then the knee went out of whack. Imo, she was underscored in Moscow Worlds.

However, Julia is ok, too but she has to stay up on her skates. We'll see.

I wonder how they will show this on TV: 3 top skaters and who. Hopefully Bebe.

Joe

 

[R.D.]

Still, Sasha would have to make some mistakes. Her 122 point performance at Campbell's should put her in the 180 range overall.

MM

That was 122 points for a GOOD performance by her. We may have to take off some to account for any falls or stumbles she might have in future competitions. (We also need to see her Campbell's performance to really analyze this issue.)

Maybe she will add more to the program as we go along, increasing the base point value of the program, so hopefully she can stay close to 120 points for the freeskate, even with a mistake or two. This would make her competitive with everyone except maybe Irina.

P.S. Did they change the format for the GP? I thought it was 12 points for 1st place and 9 for second...(I could be wrong though.)

 

[brinababy87]

That was 122 points for a GOOD performance by her. We may have to take off some to account for any falls or stumbles she might have in future competitions. (We also need to see her Campbell's performance to really analyze this issue.)

It was decent, but by no means the best. She had slow spins and one of her jumps didn't count. It was pretty bare in choreography and transitions, also.

 

[CDMM1991]

It was decent, but by no means the best. She had slow spins and one of her jumps didn't count. It was pretty bare in choreography and transitions, also.

I saw a video and I would say the only spin that was slow was the bielmann on the end of the layback. All the other spins were beautiful. I love the strong start. It says "I mean business"

 

[dancindiva03]

That was 122 points for a GOOD performance by her. We may have to take off some to account for any falls or stumbles she might have in future competitions. (We also need to see her Campbell's performance to really analyze this issue.)

She also got overly generous marks at Campbells, not getting deductions for major underrotations on jumps, and two-footing jumps. Based on this performance and the outrageous judging, I don't think you can fairly say that she is THAT far ahead of any of the other ladies. Besides, like you said, this was considered "GOOD" for Sasha as she didn't have any huge stumbles or falls, and we know she rarely completes a program without at least a fall or two. So, hoping that the other judges this year will deduct properly for her flutzing/underrotating/two-footing and being almost certain that she will fall, she really does not have a huge advantage unless you count all the overinflated PCS marks she gets for being flexible and pointing her toes.

 

[Mathman]

Still, Sasha's got a 122 point performance in the bank. The others have a lot of maybes and we'll sees.

 

[R.D.]

I'll save all post-performance scrutiny until after I see the performance. I'm just going by what I heard from reports. We can draw our own conclusions later.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Nobody skates their 'best' in the cheesefests. And yes, she did get the 15 points for the win plus the 122 in the scoring.

MM - check me out. Am I correct?

The qualifications for the Final GP are the most points in the results.

If there are ties, the highest number of scoring points breaks the tie?? or how do they break a tie? I forgot.

I think we should look over the contestants in each of the GPs and assume so and so will get 15, 13, 11, 9. Anything less will not do.

Off my head:

Sasha 30; Irina 30; Shizuka 30; Carolina 26; Joannie 26; Susanna 22; Elena S. 22;

In the above scenario Susanna and Elena S will need a tie breaker. Also is it 8 that qualify for the finals?

Joe

 

[antmanb]

Nobody skates their 'best' in the cheesefests. And yes, she did get the 15 points for the win plus the 122 in the scoring.

She got 15 points towards the GPF for winning the cheesefest??!!

The qualifications for the Final GP are the most points in the results.

If there are ties, the highest number of scoring points breaks the tie?? or how do they break a tie? I forgot.

I think we should look over the contestants in each of the GPs and assume so and so will get 15, 13, 11, 9. Anything less will not do.

Off my head:

Sasha 30; Irina 30; Shizuka 30; Carolina 26; Joannie 26; Susanna 22; Elena S. 22;

In the above scenario Susanna and Elena S will need a tie breaker. Also is it 8 that qualify for the finals?

Joe

Unless its changed recently (perhaps with CoP) I was under the impression that the maximum points for a win on the GP was 12 (remembering the year Kwan qualified for the GPF with just the 12 points she got for winning SA).

I also think its just 6 that qualify for the GPF but the 7th and 8th are named as the alternates.

Ant

 

[Lynn51]

I believe you're correct, Ant. Michelle won the 2002 Skate America (the year she was a sub for Sarah Huges) and received 12 points and ended up qualifing for the GP finals.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Nobody skates their 'best' in the cheesefests. And yes, she did get the 15 points for the win plus the 122 in the scoring.

She got 15 points towards the GPF for winning the cheesefest??!!

I was just using that hypothetically I anticipate her winning SA. I want to work on a hypothetical scheme and put skaters in their placements and figure out which I would consider as GP Finalists.

Unless its changed recently (perhaps with CoP) I was under the impression that the maximum points for a win on the GP was 12 (remembering the year Kwan qualified for the GPF with just the 12 points she got for winning SA).

I also think its just 6 that qualify for the GPF but the 7th and 8th are named as the alternates. Ant

I think you are correct with 12. I checked with Jr.GPs and first place gets 15 which was handy.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

Here are the rules about that:

http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-166394-183612-89700-0-file,00.pdf

First place gets 12 points, then it goes down to 9, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 for second through eight places.

The first tie breaker is the top score in your two events. So if I got a second and a fourth (14 points in all) and you got a third and a third (14 points), I would go.

The second tie-breaker is total of CoP points in both events combined.

In the fantastically unlikely event that there is still a tie, there are some further tie-breakers. For instance, if you got 12 points for a first but did not do your second assigned event, that loses to someone who got 12 points for two events, a third and a fourth. As I say, this is fantastially unlikely because it would not come into play unless the first skater's total points in his/her one program exactly equalled the total, down to the last hundredth of a point, of what the other guy got in two events combined.

MM

 

[Mathman]

This same document

http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-166394-183612-89700-0-file,00.pdf

also spells out the rules pretty clearly about skaters who do not compete in the GP. If you are in the top ten at worlds, you are "seeded," and you are automatically assigned to two Grand Prix events, whether you want to or not. Seeded skaters are "expected" to fulfilled these assignments.

"If any seeded skater elects in advance of the Grand Prix period (October 20 to December 4) not to participate in their assigned events (for whatever reason), they will not be permitted to particpate in any other competition, show or exhibition during the Grand Prix period."

Technically, it seems like this wording would allow Michelle to have skated at Campbell's and still skipped Skate America, since Campbell's came before the "Grand Prix period" began on October 20.

If she is not able to skate in Cup of China (which seems likely to me, given the time period of recovery from her injury), she could still do the December Marshall's event (asuming that there is one this year), as long as it is after December 4.

I don't know whether this would put her in Speedy's doghouse or not, but it seems to be allowed under the rules.

Mathman

 

[RealtorGal]

Cohen should win this one in a walk.

Or at least a skate!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

If she does skate the Marshalls (if there is one) and skips or skipped the COC then aside from my own disappointment, I think it will reflect questionablly by other fans of figure skating world wide.

Joe

 

[cianni]

What difference time makes

Michelle will be cutting it close if she does COC. I can tell you a few wks. makes quite a difference when the body is healing thats why a DR. tells a PT. stay off your feet or whatever according to the injury etc and gives a time. The body doesnt follow a fans schedule. Sorry about that. I hope she is OK by COC but if not I think the Marshalls is in Dec. and that is extra time for her to heal.

 

[R.D.]

If she does skate the Marshalls (if there is one) and skips or skipped the COC then aside from my own disappointment, I think it will reflect questionablly by other fans of figure skating world wide.

Joe

Who, Cohen?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Michelle will be cutting it close if she does COC. I can tell you a few wks. makes quite a difference when the body is healing thats why a DR. tells a PT. stay off your feet or whatever according to the injury etc and gives a time. The body doesnt follow a fans schedule. Sorry about that. I hope she is OK by COC but if not I think the Marshalls is in Dec. and that is extra time for her to heal.

I'm with you cianni on the seriousness of the ailment. It's not worth pushing. Winding up with hip replacements is not my idea of a happy medal. I feel MK should get completely well before any competition. As to Marshalls, has that yet been established? I read somewhere that it was questionable due to the poor 'invitations' of Campbells. They could make it an all-American event. Will it get ratings without MK?

Joe

 

[R.D.]

Sasha may very well become the media darling. That cannot be a good thing (for her).

I think she'll get quite a bit of exposure. She's not quite as big a draw as Kwan but I don't think the entire event will flop just because of the absence of one skater. JMO.