The results at 4CC surprised me and made me feel like Worlds may be full of surprises this year!
Pairs
1. Volosozhar/Trankov--I don't like their programs and would much prefer S/S to win. However, I don't think S/S will be at their best due to Aliona's very unfortunate injury. This will open the door for V/T to win. I think injuries/illnesses will make the difference between these two teams all the way up to Sochi. They are so closely matched that whichever team is healthiest, physically and mentally, will win.
2. Savchenko/Szolkowy--If they compete, they'll hold on for silver. Pina is brilliant, best program in any discipline this season.
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov--If they compete, they'll hold on for bronze. Clair de Lune is the best program of their career by far.
Other contenders--If the top 3 slip up or do not compete, I see Sui/Han or Bazarova/Larionov on the podium. I think Sui/Han will top B/L due to more consistent elements. Personally I don't care for Sui/Han, but you can't argue with their 75 TES score at 4CC. If that happens again, they will be on the podium almost regardless of PCS scores. If Pang/Tong compete, they'll certainly be a podium threat as well, but I don't really expect to see them there. The surprise of 4CC to me was the general strength of the North American/Chinese pairs versus the European pairs. If you take out the top 4 European pairs (S/S, V/T, K/S, B/L), there really is little to no depth beneath them. Whereas the top 6 or 7 pairs at 4CC were really all quite good.
Men
1. Patrick Chan--I don't particularly like Chan, but he seems close to unbeatable at this point.
2-3. Honestly, I think the podium beneath Chan is wide open. The skaters who SHOULD be on it are Daisuke Takahashi and Jeremy Abbott. They are the most complete skaters, with the best package of skills, choreography, and interpretation (personally, I like both of them better than Chan). However, with the competition so intense, it will come down to execution on those 2 days. Whoever lands the jumps and makes the fewest mistakes will be on the podium. It could be any combination of Takahashi, Abbott, Gachinski, Fernandez, Amodio, Brezina, Kozuka, Hanyu, even Rippon or Denis Ten. I'm tempted to bet on Gachinski simply because he's shown that he peaks for the big events.
Ice Dance
1. Virtue/Moir--I'm a Davis/White fan and I really want them to win a second gold with their magnificent Die Fledermaus. However . . . V/M won 4CC by such a big margin. They are wonderful skaters, and Funny Face truly does improve each time they skate it. I think Meryl/Charlie have their work cut out for them. But again, it will come down to execution, and if V/M slip up, Meryl/Charlie will be right there.
2. Davis/White--I love them and am rooting for them. It will be so, so close for the gold. I hope they can do it!
3. Weaver/Poje--I think this may be their year. They've been very strong all season, especially with their free dance. If they skate as strongly and consistently as they have been, their chances are excellent.
Other contenders--It should be Pechalat/Bourzat's year, after the near miss last season and with Worlds in their country. However, they just haven't been that great this year. Their free dance at Europeans was definitely their best of the season, though, so who knows? Personally I think the bronze is between W/P and P/B. I don't see the Shibutanis making the podium this year; I just don't think their free dance is good enough. Bobrova/Soloviev do have a shot, but IMO it's based on politics rather than skill.
Ladies
1. Carolina Kostner--She is the favorite. She's been consistent and solid all year, and her programs are probably the best of her career. Most importantly, the judges love her and will give her great PCS no matter what. It's her competition to lose. But the fact is, without a Lutz and with the flip questionable, she's a pretty vulnerable favorite. It's perfectly possible that anyone could beat her.
2. Ashley Wagner(!?)--I'm going out on a limb here. But if she can match her program from 4CC, a medal is possible--any color medal.
3. Mao Asada--I want Mao to win, but I don't know if it's going to happen. As much as I love her, as much as I love Liebestraum, her jumps have been so inconsistent. I'd love to see her get gold, but her results don't really support that happening.
Other contenders--I'd love to see Akiko on the podium, but her inability to put together 2 great programs this season worries me. I think she needs to do that to get on the podium. Otherwise I see her in 4th or 5th. Alissa is such a wild card. She could win this event or be as low as 10th (please, please don't let that happen). Korobeynikova is extremely promising but I don't see her on the podium this season unless all the favorites collapse. I don't think she'll get quite the PCS she needs. Leonova I think is past her peak this season (although she has performed better than expected at both her previous Worlds, so perhaps I shouldn't write her off). Murakami is another wild card. Korpi will score well in the short as usual, then tank in the long as usual. This is the hardest division to predict--I think we'll see at least one surprise on the podium, possibly two.