The most athletic competitor has the best chance to win -- if she actually delivers her program.
So far, of the current crop of championship calibre senior ladies, no one has shown that she can stand and deliver.
At major events last year (LPs) we saw
Skate America
Ando: 3Lz+3lo, yes.
Meissner: 3Lz+3T, yes.
Asada: 3A, no; 3F+3Lo, yes; 3Lz+2Lo+2Lo, no.
Skate Canada
Kim: 3F+3T, yes; 2A+3T, yes; 3Lz+2T, no.
France
Kim: 3F+2T, yes; 2A+3T, yes; 3Lz+2T, yes.
Ando: 3Lz+3Lo, no.
Meissner: 3Lz+3T, yes; 3F+3T, no.
NHK
Asada, 3A, sort of (-1.8 GOE); 3F+3Lo, yes; 3Lz+2Lo+2Lo, no.
GP finals
Kim: 3F+3T, yes; 3Lz+2T+2Lo, yes; 2A+3T, no.
Asada: 3A, no; 2A+3T, yes; 3Lz combo, no; 3F combo, no.
Ando: 3Lz combo, no; 3F combo, no.
Euros
Carolina Kostner: 3F+3T+2Lo, yes; 3Lz+2T, yes.
Worlds
Asada: 3A, yes; 2a+3T, no; 3F+3Lo, yes; 3Lz+2Lo+2Lo, yes.
Ando: 3Lz+3Lo, yes (no other big combo).
Meissner: 3Lz+3T, no; 3F+3T, no.
Kim: 3F+3T, yes; 2A+3T, yes; 3Lz combo, no.
Kostner 3F combo, no; 3Lz combo, no.
To me, that's a lot of yes, no, yes, no, yes, no, yes.