Yuzuru Hanyu: 2015-16 Season

[gsyzf]

I think in depends on both and more like destiny I would call it luck .
Anyway I don't think judges didn't aprecciate his talent until he won Olympics. He broke the short program record two times prior GPF 2013, so clearly judges liked what they saw. The problem is that Yuzuru was very inconsistent in the free program so he couldn't position himself as a top skater imo.

But what is luck? Why is someone always luckier than others? IMO, luck is destiny.

I don't think judges really appreciate his skills and talent before 2013 GPF. If you look at his scores, both of his GOE and PCS are lower than other top skaters like Patrick, Dai and Javi (after he won Euro) when all of them are clean, even though he had better jumps, spins and comparable footwork. But he should be getting higher GOE than other skaters. He only broke the WR in 2012 because of his BV after the rule change. The new rules gave bonus for 2nd half jumps in the SP. But both of his GOE and PCS were still lower than Patrick's. He never received generous GOE or PCS before 2013 GPF. His PCS was always in low 8s or high 7s in both SP and LP no matter how good or how bad his performances were. High 7s and low 8s is the PCS second tier skaters get. Yuzuru wasn't consistent. But so was everyone else. The only difference is Patrick has world title, Dai had world title, Javi had Euro title. Yuzuru had no titles. Japanese national title doesn't mean too much to international judges. He was pretty much perceived as a second tier skater before 2013 GPF because he had never won any major titles. Top skaters automatically get 9s PCS no matter now good or bad their performances are. IMO, before 2013 GPF, the GOE and PCS he received had always been too low given his skills and performance. He needed a boost, an outstanding performance at the right time and right place to win a major title in order to be perceived as a top skater. That performance happened at 2013 GPF in Japan. After 2013 GPF, he started to get comparable GOE and PCS as other top skaters, but not higher than other top skaters.

This season, that performance happened at NHK in Japan again. It's only at NHK this season, he started to get higher GOE and PCS than other top skaters like Patrick and Javi. (I believe his technical skills were already better than other top skaters a few years ago, not just this season. He should've received higher GOE and PCS than other top skaters a long time ago. His NHK performance finally forced judges to see him as superior than other top skaters.)

 

[Lys]

But what is luck? Why is someone always luckier than others? IMO, luck is destiny.

As someone once upon a time said... We are the creators of our own destiny

Meaning, of course GPF13 in Japan helped him, of course being in GPF in 2011 helped him at WC12, of course skating clean both his programs at NHK helped him (altho I think that he would have got 106 even in any other venue on sp and maybe in the fp he wouldn't have got to 216 but to 210 at least for sure), but... you also have to deliver and play the cards destiny gives you.

 

[gsyzf]

As someone once upon a time said... We are the creators of our own destiny

Meaning, of course GPF13 in Japan helped him, of course being in GPF in 2011 helped him at WC12, of course skating clean both his programs at NHK helped him (altho I think that he would have got 106 even in any other venue on sp and maybe in the fp he wouldn't have got to 216 but to 210 at least for sure), but... you also have to deliver and play the cards destiny gives you.

I'm not saying he is not talented or doesn't deliver. But there are other skaters who are also talented. They deliver too, but at the wrong time and wrong place, and they never gain the momentum. Yuzuru is definitely luckier than many other skaters. (If Yuzuru gave his NHK performance at Skate Canada, I really doubt he would smash the WR. He would've only broken the WR by a few points, not by almost 30 points.)

Figure skating has been traditionally dominated by American, Canadian, Russians and Europeans. Most judges come from those countries. It's extremely difficult for skaters from Asian countries to rise to the top because most judges will always favor skaters from their own countries and regions. (Asian judges don't necessarily favor Asian skaters.) The traditional skating powerhouse countries can also lobby the ISU to make rule changes that favor their skaters. (Midori Ito was technically way ahead of her time and she is a once in a life time talent. But she was so low-balled because the rules did not favor her.) Asian skaters can only win major titles when he/she is technically head and shoulders above the rest of the field or when the skaters from the traditional power house nations struggle. Asian skaters only started to win major titles from 2006 to 2010 after the introduction of COP because skaters from the USA, Canada, Russia and other European countries struggled with the transition of COP. Now these countries also learnt how to game the system, it's even harder for Asian skaters to win (they may medal) unless the skater is vastly superior in both difficulty and quality than the rest of the field like Yuzuru. Even Yuzuru needs the boost from home ice because he can't have flawless performance with the level of tech he is attempting all the time.

 

[alia jackson]

I'm not sure whether this been shared.....Yuzu 2016 goal

“Always believe myself. Always exceed myself. I want to cherish every single day so I can continue growing”


Photo from another angle..."Yes Javi you're next" ..."Just take it off"

 

[afellani]

Did you guys know that Yuzuru's performance at NHK was the first "clean" performance (both in SP and FP) since Patrick Chan's in 2013 TEB? I feel like the judges have been yearning for it. Especially since it was done at Yuzuru's level, with 5 quads and 3 triple axels, it means much more than just doing it cleanly. I honestly don't think he would've gotten lower marks than 322 even if it were done in somewhere else. GPF in Barcelona proves it.

 

[Rissa]

Did you guys know that Yuzuru's performance at NHK was the first "clean" performance (both in SP and FP) since Patrick Chan's in 2013 TEB? I feel like the judges have been yearning for it. Especially since it was done at Yuzuru's level, with 5 quads and 3 triple axels, it means much more than just doing it cleanly. I honestly don't think he would've gotten lower marks than 322 even if it were done in somewhere else. GPF in Barcelona proves it.

Whoa, really? Not even the second-tier guys turned in 2 clean performances in 2 years? Hard to believe

A little bit off-topic but if anyone is interested I wanted to share Yuzu's GPF LP from Polish Eurosport

Thank you so much Poice, it's so much fun to listen to the praises! Did you by any chance manage to catch the broadcast from TVP Sport? I wasn't able to, but I'm so curious what they said there.

 

[Meoima]

Whoa, really? Not even the second-tier guys turned in 2 clean performances in 2 years? Hard to believe

If you mean as clean as in there's no quad then I think there were some (but I don't check the records).

But among top men with multi quads, then yes, only Patrick at TEB 2013 and Yuzuru at NHK 2015 and GPF 2015. They're only "clean" performances recently with all positive GOE and all the planned elements were executed well.

 

[xibsuarz]

While I think it's true for most disciplines that they lean towards the western countries, I think the men are going through a shift that started after Takahashi won Worlds but became much more noticeable after the Olympics. Look at the GPF qualifiers this year: a North American, a European, and 4 Asians, 3 of them Japanese. Last year's GPF also had 3 Japanese men, and the year before as well. 4 Japanese men qualified for 2012, IIRC, and while there were only two in 2011, there were 3 in 2010. Now, they couldn't all be helped by home ice advantage, the international judges acknowledge them and award them with good scores. Half of the GP events had 2 Japanese on the podium (SC, TEB, NHK) and 4 of them had two Asian men if we count Han and Boyang at COC. The NHK podium was entirely formed by Asian skaters.

Of course, I think one of the main factors is their technical power. Only 6 men have ever gone over 100 TES points: Patrick, Yuzuru, Denis, Shoma, Boyang and Javier. Only two of them are non-Asian. And while I think it used to be very hard for Asian male skaters to break-through, I don't think it's the case anymore. Look at Shoma, he's on his first senior season and he won a silver and (technically) a gold at the GP circuit, and also got the bronze at the Final. Same case with Boyang (although his 4 quads help him).

And I agree that the 2013 GPF was vital for Yuzu to be considered a contender heading into Sochi, but after that season, after being a World and Olympic Champion, he could skate anywhere and earn good marks IF he performs well. Take last season as an example, his GP circuit was disastrous, but he skated extraordinarily well at the GPF in Barcelona and was marked accordingly, getting what back then was, the second highest score of all time. He couldn't build up to a great competition, unlike this season. He had higher PCS in the SP at SC than Patrick, in CANADA! And ok, perhaps, had he not skated at NHK and gone somewhere else, he may have gotten a couple of points less in PCS, but the judges have wanted to give Yuzuru stratospherical marks since last season but couldn't because he never performed clean. The COP system helped him to get high TES, so the judges had to mark him down on PCS, because he made mistakes. But when he didn't, well, we saw what happened

Denis could be another example, he is Asian and comes from a country without skating background, and is also VERY inconsistent during the first half of the season, but if he skates lights out, he gets good scores.

 

[Rissa]

^^^

Good analysis, xibsuarz! Especially about Denis Ten, I suspect the judges pray before every Denis performance "Dude, we love you, we have so many points prepared for you, please please skate well so that we can finally give them all to you!" : Not that I blame them! [ /off-topic] With Yuzu, the judges were probably so stunned to see the highest difficulty performed with perfect quality that they just could't stop their fingers from moving towards the 10, it would have happened anywhere.

 

[won0066]

While I think it's true for most disciplines that they lean towards the western countries, I think the men are going through a shift that started after Takahashi won Worlds but became much more noticeable after the Olympics. Look at the GPF qualifiers this year: a North American, a European, and 4 Asians, 3 of them Japanese. Last year's GPF also had 3 Japanese men, and the year before as well. 4 Japanese men qualified for 2012, IIRC, and while there were only two in 2011, there were 3 in 2010. Now, they couldn't all be helped by home ice advantage, the international judges acknowledge them and award them with good scores. Half of the GP events had 2 Japanese on the podium (SC, TEB, NHK) and 4 of them had two Asian men if we count Han and Boyang at COC. The NHK podium was entirely formed by Asian skaters.

Of course, I think one of the main factors is their technical power. Only 6 men have ever gone over 100 TES points: Patrick, Yuzuru, Denis, Shoma, Boyang and Javier. Only two of them are non-Asian. And while I think it used to be very hard for Asian male skaters to break-through, I don't think it's the case anymore. Look at Shoma, he's on his first senior season and he won a silver and (technically) a gold at the GP circuit, and also got the bronze at the Final. Same case with Boyang (although his 4 quads help him).

And I agree that the 2013 GPF was vital for Yuzu to be considered a contender heading into Sochi, but after that season, after being a World and Olympic Champion, he could skate anywhere and earn good marks IF he performs well. Take last season as an example, his GP circuit was disastrous, but he skated extraordinarily well at the GPF in Barcelona and was marked accordingly, getting what back then was, the second highest score of all time. He couldn't build up to a great competition, unlike this season. He had higher PCS in the SP at SC than Patrick, in CANADA! And ok, perhaps, had he not skated at NHK and gone somewhere else, he may have gotten a couple of points less in PCS, but the judges have wanted to give Yuzuru stratospherical marks since last season but couldn't because he never performed clean. The COP system helped him to get high TES, so the judges had to mark him down on PCS, because he made mistakes. But when he didn't, well, we saw what happened

Denis could be another example, he is Asian and comes from a country without skating background, and is also VERY inconsistent during the first half of the season, but if he skates lights out, he gets good scores.

Only 2 are non-Asian???? Javier is the only non-asian...am I missing something? who is the other non-Asian??

 

[ice coverage]

Only 2 are non-Asian???? Javier is the only non-asian...am I missing something? who is the other non-Asian??

Patrick is Canadian. (Happens to be of Asian descent, but he is Canadian.)

 

[Pamigena]

Only 2 are non-Asian???? Javier is the only non-asian...am I missing something? who is the other non-Asian??

going out on a limb here, but I'll just assume that xibsuarz was talking about countries. That would probably make the Canadian non-Asian.

 

[Lindacrow]

Well I updated the Jump Scores. I now have the full history of Yuzu's senior 3A, 4T, and 4S.

3A: Yuzuru has landed 99/106 3A's giving him a 93% success rate with an average GOE of +1.5
4T: Yuzuru has landed 54/72 4T's giving him a 75% success rate with an average GOE of +0.6 (the 2011-2012 season really dropped it)
4S: He has landed 14/28 4S giving him a 50% sucess rate with an average GOE of -0.2 (But it is getting much better now!)

What jump should I do next? I'm thinking maybe his trusty lutz

Added:
3Lo: Yuzuru has landed 33/35 3Lo giving him a 94% success rate with an average GOE 0.51. 3Lo doesn't get much love when it comes to GOE
3Lz: landed 83/98 3Lz giving him a 84% success rate with an average GOE of -0.02
3F: landed 37/39 3F giving him a 95% success rate with an average GOE of 0.2. But keep in mind that I would estimate that at least half of those 3F's have an "e" or "!" call...

So in terms of triple and quad jumps, jump consistency in order from best to worst: 3F, 3Lo, 3A, 3Lz, 4T, 4S

 

[Interspectator]

Added:
3Lo: Yuzuru has landed 33/35 3Lo giving him a 94% success rate with an average GOE 0.51. 3Lo doesn't get much love when it comes to GOE
3Lz: landed 82/98 3Lz giving him a 84% success rate with an average GOE of -0.02
3F: landed 37/39 3F giving him a 95% success rate with an average GOE of 0.2. But keep in mind that I would estimate that at least half of those 3F's have an "e" or "!" call...

So in terms of triple and quad jumps, jump consistency is: 3F, 3Lo, 3A, 3Lz, 4T, 4S

Thanks so much for these! such interesting stats.

And here is TV show about how the front page of a Sports Newspaper is decided and designed. http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3kq52a_2016-0105-スポーツ新聞-一面は誰がどのように_sport
Taken the day Yuzu won the GPF so He's on the cover.

This made me laugh because the meetings are so casual and all the designers/layout people look like they aren't really concentrating on what the boss is saying. This is exactly what I look like during a design meeting too. -It's nice to know that designers are the same the world over.

 

[xibsuarz]

going out on a limb here, but I'll just assume that xibsuarz was talking about countries. That would probably make the Canadian non-Asian.

You are right, I was only talking about countries, so I didn't count Patrick as Asian, but North American :yes:

 

[gsyzf]

While I think it's true for most disciplines that they lean towards the western countries, I think the men are going through a shift that started after Takahashi won Worlds but became much more noticeable after the Olympics. Look at the GPF qualifiers this year: a North American, a European, and 4 Asians, 3 of them Japanese. Last year's GPF also had 3 Japanese men, and the year before as well. 4 Japanese men qualified for 2012, IIRC, and while there were only two in 2011, there were 3 in 2010. Now, they couldn't all be helped by home ice advantage, the international judges acknowledge them and award them with good scores. Half of the GP events had 2 Japanese on the podium (SC, TEB, NHK) and 4 of them had two Asian men if we count Han and Boyang at COC. The NHK podium was entirely formed by Asian skaters.

It's easier for Asians to medal now because COP gives specific base values for each element. As long as the skater execute the element, he/she will get credit for the BV. But the GOE and PCS are still at the discretion of the judges. If some judges (e.g. 3 - 4 judges) are slightly more generous on every element (e.g. give extra +1 on each GOE and extra 0.25 or 0.5 on each component), that would aggregate to a significant bonus for the Canadian, Russian, American and European no. 1. It can be as high as 10 points or more in LP alone (5 points in SP). The GOE and PCS are the average of all judges' scores. If 4 judges give an extra +1 GOE on each element means 0.57 points (4/7=0.57, only 7 scores are counted) bonus on each element, and 7.43 points bonus on 13 elements. If 4 judges give extra +0.5 on each component, 4x0.5/7=0.286 x 5 (component)x 2 (PCS factor)= 2.86. The GOE inflation is in fact much bigger than PCS inflation. It's difficult to close that kind of gap with BV. To add 10 points in BV mean adding two more quads to the program. The Asian skater really needs to be technically way superior than the top skaters from western countries to be able to execute a technically much more difficult program with high quality.

So, while it's easier for Asians to medal, it is now harder for Asians to win major champhionship because top skaters from traditional western countries will get bigger boost for being the top skaters in their country/region. GPs are smaller competitions. The results depend on the strength of the field. There is only one top skater there, so Asian skaters can medal. When is the last time an Asian skater actually win a major championship like words and Olympics (other than Yuzu) when there are medal contenders from Europe, Canada, USA or Russia after 2010? (The females skaters' from Europe, Canada, USA and Russia were very weak before 2013.) Mao only won WC in Japan in 2014. Dai only won WC when both Plushenko and Lycasek retired. Why are the 2012 WC and 2013WC results controversial? If the silver medalists were Euro no.1 or Russian no.1, the outcomes would've been different. (Asian skaters won't have any controversial wins over western skaters. They will only have controversial wins over other Asian skaters.)

Yuzu and Denis are the only two Asians that get good scores. Yuzu is really the exception. He has superior tech than everyone else. Denis peaks at the right time and right place (worlds, olympics when everyone fell.) So Denis is viewed as a top skater by the judges. (You can call it fate/destiny/luck or may be Denis just plans his peak carefully every season.) Which other Asians actually get better GOE and PCS than non-Asian top skaters in recent years at major championship, not on home ice?

The difference is, if Javi and Patrick doesn't skate well, their scores don't drop significantly. If Yuzu or Denis doesn't skate well, their scores will drop significantly. Yuzu only got higher PCS than Patrick in Canada because he skated later and Patrick took a year off. Even when yuzuru skated clean at WTT at home last season, his GOE and PCS were actually lower than Patrick's GOE and PCS at Skate Canada. If he gave his NHK performance else where like at Skate Canada, both of his GOE and PCS would've been lower. He would still break the record and win, but the winning margin would be much smaller and he won't break the WR by almost 30 points, but only a few points. (E.g. he receives mostly +2s instead of +3s, low 9s instead of 10s if judges want to be more stingy. He also won't get level 4 steps. He will get 95BV + 15 GOE = 110 TES and 92-93 PCS, and an overall score of 202-203.) If he breaks the WR by only a few points, it doesn't suggest his performance is much better than the previous world record performance. But if he breaks the WR by almost 30 points, that means his performance is way superior than the previous world record performance. The winning margin changes the whole impression.If Yuzuru didn't get the boost from skating at home, he wouldn't be seen a superior skater than other top skaters. He is just seen as one of the top skaters when he should've been in a class of his own. He won't get higher GOE and PCS, but only similar GOE and PCS when he competes with other top skaters from western countries. (Patrick skated first at GPF. Skating early usually lowers the scores, but that doesn't apply to Patrick. When Yuzu skated first in Skate Canada, both of his GOE and PCS are lowered significantly.) I thought judges will never low-ball the reigning Olympic champ. But when I saw Yuzu's score and Patrick's score at Skate Canada, I realized I underestimated judges' nationalistic bias and the impact of bloc judging. I think he gave his best performance at the right place, NHK. He won't be underscored in Japan.

The number of Asian skaters doesn't tell you the bias in the judging. It simply tells you the popularity of skating in Asian countries. There are more skaters in Asian that became interested in skating due to their predecesor's success, so they have a bigger pool of talent. The GOE and PCS differential between Asian skaters and skaters from traditional western countries give you a better idea of the judging bias. If judges are giving the same GOE and PCS (+3 and +10) to both Yuzu and Patrick/Javi, they are actually underscoring Yuzu because Yuzu has the superior performance and tech. The difference between GOE and PCS should reflect the difference of their quality. It's not that Yuzu doesn' t get high score when he skates well, but other top skaters from traditional skating powerhouse countries/regions get similar scores when they give a worse quality performance with lower difficulty. That is the same as underscoring him. Underscoring and overscoring is a relative measure, not an absolute measure. (At WC 2013, the judges did given Denis high GOE and PCS in the LP, but they also gave Patrick high GOE and PCS for a sup-bar LP. That's the same as underscoring Denis. That's why Denis still lost even when he skated well.)

The scores have gone up recently due to grade inflation in the whole field. It may appear that Asian skaters also get better scores. But the gap between the Asian and non-Asian skaters is smaller because Asian skaters have superior tech, which means the gap would've been much bigger if the Asian skater does similar tech. But even with improved tech and performances, asian skaters still get lower GOE and PCS.

The reality is most judges are biased towards skaters from western countries because most judges come from those countries. Canada, USA, Russia and European countries have formed long term partnership and alliance. So they will always naturally prefer skaters from their countries/regions (bloc judging). The current system in fact stengthens the bias due to using the average of all judges' scores and anonymous judging. Asian skaters can only compete with superior tech. They should never plan a program with low BV and expect judges to give them generous GOE and PCS and win. Only Asian skaters who have both difficulty and quality (and luck, they need luck on their side too) can come out on top. Basically, the Asian skater can only win a major championship if he/she is the greatest of all time or skaters from the traditional skating powerhouse countries are in a slump.

 

[gsyzf]

Duplicate post.

 

[YesWay]

It's easier for Asians to medal now because COP gives specific base values for each element.
<snip>

I regard the vast majority of that post to be either unsubstantiated, gross exaggeration, or just plain nonsense.

Just my opinion.

 

[Lunna]

I think a person's success has more to do with destiny than talent/skills. In a subjectively judged sport, a skater with better skills doesn't necessarily get better scores. A skater with worse skills can get better scores than another skater who has better skills, due to unbalanced judging system and unfair judging. There are skaters who are talented, but never given enough reward for their talent. There are skaters who are less talented, but achieved good results due to competing in a weak field and the judging system rewarding their strengths and not punishing their weaknesses.

I still think the main turning point for Yuzuru's success is his win at 2013 GPF. IMO, he was only able to win with a big margin because the GPF was held in Japan. (He had always low-balled relative to the top skaters before that.)

As long as I agree that not every talented skaters receives high scores and most of the times judges have their favourites, I don't agree that Yuzu was that much low-balled. He surely was on the rise even before GPF 2013, he had famous coach, was one of the leaders in his country, has great tech and was the one who can compete with Patrick (who had too many wins with falls by that time). I also think that in Japan or not Yuzu still would be able to win GPF 2013 (thanks to great SP) and still have his NHK 2015 records (just maybe with a little less gap in points). It also seems that Japan is not so generous to their skaters at home events like in Canada/America/Russia.

 

[Rissa]

I didn't read the whole of gzsyf's post because if I kept rolling my eyes as I went along I'd have hurt myself. Seriously? In what world are GPs smaller competitions? Well, Asian men won 4CCs eight times in the last 17 years (3 Americans, 6 Canadians) It's easier for Asians to medal because CoP gives specific value for elements? Huh? PCS for Shoma Uno straight out of juniors were almost 90, hello? Better than Jason Brown's personal best, I believe . PCS for Yuzu, hello? PCS for Denis Ten? Jeah, those judges are really biased in favor of American and European men. Meanwhile, you won't be seeing Boyang Jin winning world championships if he continues turning in 70 PCS. Asian men are winning stuff because due to popularity of figure skating there are a bunch of complete, rounded skaters. They'd have been medalling and winning stuff under 6.0 as well.