Yuzuru Hanyu: 2016-17 Season

[Meoima]

This is his best scenario BV-wise actually. It is even higher than Nathan's 5 quads program. Actually, Yuzuru's current long program's BV is higher than Nathan's, because Yuzuru backload all his combos and 2 of his quads, despite doing "easier" jumps. He is 3 pts behind in the SP but tbh they are not that far-off BV wise, and we know Yuzu has the advantage in PCS and GOE
I think it is good that he trains 4Lz as a backup-plan. But it is not like his current layout is behind the quadsters BV-wise. Which is why he (and his fans) should not freak out if the young ones land things. New phenoms will always arise, before Yuzu there was Gachinski, then Han Yan, Farris, Brown, Kovtun, Boyang, Shoma, Nathan etc etc. But not everyone fulfill their potential. Yuzu trains with a 12 y.o who can land 4Lz, 4S and 4T + a 15 y.o who lands 4S, 4T and 4Lo. I am sure he of all people knows best not to undermine youngsters

My guess is that, in the LP, he will do 4Lo3T at 4CC, 4lz will come later, maybe at WTT or next season. There is a high chance he will have new SP with new SP layout next season.

 

[gladiolusc]

This is his best scenario BV-wise actually. It is even higher than Nathan's 5 quads program. Actually, Yuzuru's current long program's BV is higher than Nathan's, because Yuzuru backload all his combos and 2 of his quads, despite doing "easier" jumps. He is 3 pts behind in the SP but tbh they are not that far-off BV wise, and we know Yuzu has the advantage in PCS and GOE
I think it is good that he trains 4Lz as a backup-plan. But it is not like his current layout is behind the quadsters BV-wise. Which is why he (and his fans) should not freak out if the young ones land things. New phenoms will always arise, before Yuzu there was Gachinski, then Han Yan, Farris, Brown, Kovtun, Boyang, Shoma, Nathan etc etc. But not everyone fulfill their potential. Yuzu trains with a 12 y.o who can land 4Lz, 4S and 4T + a 15 y.o who lands 4S, 4T and 4Lo. I am sure he of all people knows best not to undermine youngsters

But that's the opposite to the problem. I know he doesn't undermine them, and having Gogolev and Cha around him to put things into perspective is great. Not to mention they can compare Lz notes haha.
I'm worried that Yuzu would be over motivated and kill his body in the process

I wonder if backloading counts as stamina training of some sort... how I wish to be a fly on the Cricket Club wall

 

[mcq]

Armchair speculation: if he cuts some transitions going in and out of jumps in the beginning of season to stabilize a new jump before adding them back in, I do think it would help with consistency. Like a lot of people have said, he lands beautiful 4L's in practice but hasn't been able to in competition thus far. I'm sure a late start in training is part of it, but then, that would be even bigger reason to lessen the steps/transitions for the time being or move some steps and transitions to in-between? Don't skaters develop and up their program throughout the season a lot?

Also armchair speculation : Skaters are different, perhaps for some it is easier to land things consistently first even with long preparation and then add in the entry, steps and transition gradually. But maybe for some others, it is harder to do so because adding in steps and transition or changing entry would be like learning the jump from zero. It could be just mental thing, who knows. So maybe for the latter type, if their final aim is to have that high GOE jump, it is better to just train it with the intended steps/entry since the beginning. Maybe Yuzuru is the latter type? Or most skaters are the latter type and for those who just want to land things they maybe just don't bother to learn it with steps at all lol.

My guess is that, in the LP, he will do 4Lo3T at 4CC, 4lz will come later, maybe at WTT or next season. There is a high chance he will have new SP with new SP layout next season.

Hard to say for me, too early really. I think his decision about future layout will depend on : 1. how he will do with his current layout 2. how his competitors will do with their layout.
For example, if Chen suddenly consistently land all his 6 quads at Nats, 4CC worlds, wtt; come hell or shine I am sure he will add the 4Lz no matter if he has yet nailed his current layout or not. If it is more of a hit or miss performance from his rivals + he has not nailed his current layout, I think he will likely opt to stick with it and perfect it to make it consistent. If he nailed his current layout consistently at his next competitons, lol, only heaven will know.

Anyway, I am not against 4Lo3T at all if his consistency there is good. It is very risky to do combo after the solo jump, because if he missed the combo, he can't improvise.

 

[HanDomi]

SP definitely will be 4lo and 4S. He can score around 113-114 with that if he will go perfect like last season


I wasn't thinking about possible layout but for some reason he is looking for that 4s-1lo-4s in practice

 

[Meoima]

Also armchair speculation : Skaters are different, perhaps for some it is easier to land things consistently first even with long preparation and then add in the entry, steps and transition gradually. But maybe for some others, it is harder to do so because adding in steps and transition or changing entry would be like learning the jump from zero. It could be just mental thing, who knows. So maybe for the latter type, if their final aim is to have that high GOE jump, it is better to just train it with the intended steps/entry since the beginning. Maybe Yuzuru is the latter type? Or most skaters are the latter type and for those who just want to land things they maybe just don't bother to learn it with steps at all lol.

It's true that skaters are different and some might find it easier to do jumps from steps than other. What I don't like from the judges is that they're not consistent.
For example even if I don't like Eteri's girls program, I can try to understand how they get such GOE and PCS, due to the placement of their transitions, their consistency.
But some skaters I never ever understand why they're getting such PCS and GOE because the features and bullets aee kind of forced to be applied for them.

One more reason why politic influence matters in this sport, look at the score Evgenia Med is getting and Anna Pogo is getting. I am sure people who understand FS know that Anna in fact has the same amount of difficult transitions as Evegnia.
Look at how they're scored, Evegnia is considered no.1 in the world, judges keep giving her scores on another level, while Anna just get the treatment as a second tier. They pushed her down in WC 2014, WC 2016, GPF 2016 too. Reason? She's not Russian no.1

 

[Yatagarasu]

Wrong word guys, underestimate, not undermine. The latter has some not nice connotations in English

This is his best scenario BV-wise actually. It is even higher than Nathan's 5 quads program. Actually, Yuzuru's current long program's BV is higher than Nathan's, because Yuzuru backload all his combos and 2 of his quads, despite doing "easier" jumps. He is 3 pts behind in the SP but tbh they are not that far-off BV wise, and we know Yuzu has the advantage in PCS and GOE
I think it is good that he trains 4Lz as a backup-plan. But it is not like his current layout is behind the quadsters BV-wise. Which is why he (and his fans) should not freak out if the young ones land things. New phenoms will always arise, before Yuzu there was Gachinski, then Han Yan, Farris, Brown, Kovtun, Boyang, Shoma, Nathan etc etc. But not everyone fulfill their potential. Yuzu trains with a 12 y.o who can land 4Lz, 4S and 4T + a 15 y.o who lands 4S, 4T and 4Lo. I am sure he of all people knows best not to undermine youngsters

You mean Gogolev? All that scares me, in terms of his health, to be honest :hopelessness:
But yes, I mean in principle I agree. I think this season is completely going to be on his shoulders alone. But come next season, an Olympic year, and I'm happy that he has given himself time for that 4Lz to be there if necessary because Chen and Shoma are youngsters that are holding. If Chen can continue as he is going, his PCS will skyrocket. It is how it works and with his Fed fully behind him, it's inevitable. At the same time, he has enough time to re-arrange his programs next season too and work it all out. There's Shoma too with his new 4Lo whatever I may think of it and his PCS is very, very nicely on the rise as well. Nothing brings about politicking as an Olympics year so I'm happy he has the option of upping his content if needed.

I have no idea what he'll do at 4CC. I think his mentality may push him towards skating the current layout with that dratted 4S combo clean at least once to show that he can. But who knows.

It's true that skaters are different and some might find it easier to do jumps from steps than other. What I don't like from the judges is that they're not consistent.
...
Look at how they're scored, Evegnia is considered no.1 in the world, judges keep giving her scores on another level, while Anna just get the treatment as a second tier. They pushed her down in WC 2014, WC 2016, GPF 2016 too. Reason? She's not Russian no.1

Yes, yes. And an Olympics year makes it that much worse. We've been around this block before, it is never pretty.

 

[mcq]

It's true that skaters are different and some might find it easier to do jumps from steps than other. What I don't like from the judges is that they're not consistent.
For example even if I don't like Eteri's girls program, I can try to understand how they get such GOE and PCS, due to the placement of their transitions, their consistency.
But some skaters I never ever understand why they're getting such PCS and GOE because the features and bullets aee kind of forced to be applied for them.

One more reason why politic influence matters in this sport, look at the score Evgenia Med is getting and Anna Pogo is getting. I am sure people who understand FS know that Anna in fact has the same amount of difficult transitions as Evegnia.
Look at how they're scored, Evegnia is considered no.1 in the world, judges keep giving her scores on another level, while Anna just get the treatment as a second tier. They pushed her down in WC 2014, WC 2016, GPF 2016 too. Reason? She's not Russian no.1

Well, for Anna's case, she was not as consistent as Zhenya and she has her share of hot mess skate (NHK trophy 2015, I won't forget) while Zhenya doesn't. Anna's spins looks nothing special to me too and her jump landings are often scratchy and shaky (like Elena's). Zhenya also has transition in and out of jumps +tano, while Pogo's 3Lz take forever to set up so there goes her GOE.
Still, I don't see how this will affect Yuzuru? He is still Japan's no.1 and international judges still like him. He got 46/92 in PCS with a fall/stepout at GPF. I don't think he is in a bad position, especially if he actually land things.

 

[Meoima]

Yes, yes. And an Olympics year makes it that much worse. We've been around this block before, it is never pretty.

And judges can be unreasonable too. I sat in tech panel at a local competition, we called the elements that children do. Technically it's not difficult, they're children right? But some cases, the judges just made me and other folks in tech panel want to flip the table. Technically this was our conversation:
Tech panel: "Why the heck that girl in red dress got 10 points higher than the rest? She didn't do a proper crossover at all, you guys didn't see?"
Judges: "But her performance looks very pleasing to the eyes!"
Tech panel: "She didn't do a proper double, you didn't see that?????"

I mean... judges are unpaid... so don't expect much from them.

 

[gladiolusc]

It's true that skaters are different and some might find it easier to do jumps from steps than other. What I don't like from the judges is that they're not consistent.
For example even if I don't like Eteri's girls program, I can try to understand how they get such GOE and PCS, due to the placement of their transitions, their consistency.
But some skaters I never ever understand why they're getting such PCS and GOE because the features and bullets aee kind of forced to be applied for them.

One more reason why politic influence matters in this sport, look at the score Evgenia Med is getting and Anna Pogo is getting. I am sure people who understand FS know that Anna in fact has the same amount of difficult transitions as Evegnia.
Look at how they're scored, Evegnia is considered no.1 in the world, judges keep giving her scores on another level, while Anna just get the treatment as a second tier. They pushed her down in WC 2014, WC 2016, GPF 2016 too. Reason? She's not Russian no.1

When her federation pushes her down even in the nationals (which never makes sense to me)... what can you do....

 

[Yatagarasu]

SP definitely will be 4lo and 4S. He can score around 113-114 with that if he will go perfect like last season
I wasn't thinking about possible layout but for some reason he is looking for that 4s-1lo-4s in practice

I think this is one of those things for later. Post the Olympics, when they cut one jumping pass. It's still good practice overall so it's not like he's losing anything if he starts trying them out now. I don't see it showing up before that.

 

[gladiolusc]

I think this is one of those things for later. Post the Olympics, when they cut one jumping pass. It's still good practice overall so it's not like he's losing anything if he starts trying them out now. I don't see it showing up before that.

Yay, +1 evidence towards at least one more year after Olympics. Is a 4-4 allowed right now in the LP? I recall it's not in the SP?

 

[Meoima]

Well, for Anna's case, she was not as consistent as Zhenya and she has her share of hot mess skate (NHK trophy 2015, I won't forget) while Zhenya doesn't. Anna's spins looks nothing special to me too and her jump landings are often scratchy and shaky (like Elena's). Zhenya also has transition in and out of jumps +tano, while Pogo's 3Lz take forever to set up so there goes her GOE.
Still, I don't see how this will affect Yuzuru? He is still Japan's no.1 and international judges still like him. He got 46/92 in PCS with a fall/stepout at GPF. I don't think he is in a bad position, especially if he actually land things.

First, the scores are supposed to be handed out on the merit of the quality they perform that day, not the consistency and reputation.
Second, the transitions they do are equally difficult, even the amounts are the same. Anna does more difficult transitions actually.
Third, Anna gets calls for her 3Fe. Evegnia does not get calls for her 3lze.
Fourth, Evegnia doesn't even have a proper sit spin...

Politics matter, pretty much. Just Yuzuru doesn't need that political support because he is No.1 in the world already, judges will not score him down (it's the same as saying their previous scoring is not trustable), they will just scores others up and up regardless of the quality and quantity. Some don't need transitions to get huge scores, some don't get quality and speed to get huge score. If you ask me, does Yuzuru need political support? No he does not. He needs that 4lz for Olympic.

 

[mcq]

Wrong word guys, underestimate, not undermine. The latter has some not nice connotations in English .

Welp, my bad. Brain is not functioning well atm. But well you get my point.

First, the scores are supposed to be handed out on the merit of the quality they perform that day, not the consistency and reputation.
Second, the transitions they do are equally difficult, even the amounts are the same. Anna does more difficult transitions actually.
Third, Anna gets calls for her 3Fe. Evegnia does not get calls for her 3lze.
Fourth, Evegnia doesn't even have a proper sit spin...

Politics matter, pretty much. Just Yuzuru doesn't need that political support because he is No.1 in the world already, judges will not score him down (it's the same as saying their previous scoring is not trustable), they will just scores others up and up regardless of the quality and quantity. Some don't need transitions to get huge scores, some don't get quality and speed to get huge score. If you ask me, does Yuzuru need political support? No he does not. He needs that 4lz.

I am well-aware of the importance of politicking in judged sports. In fact, I think Yuzuru benefits from it a couple of times. But not even the amount of politicking can help a skater if s/he does not perform well and falls a lot ( e.g : gracie vs ashley at 2016 worlds or adelina vs yulia at 2014 olympics, it is clear Gracie is the US Fed fave and Yulia is the Rus fed fave but well their skate said otherwise). Anyway I doubt Yuzuru is in a position where he would be scored in the 80s when he skates clean while his rivals get 90s. So even though it is unfortunate and could be improved, I don't think it is a factor he needs to worry about?

 

[Yatagarasu]

Welp, my bad. Brain is not functioning well atm. But well you get my point.

No worries, it's still way better than my genius display of mathematics before that but mentioned it simply because you just know someone would think Yuzuru's leaving banana peels on ice these days.

Politics matter, pretty much. Just Yuzuru doesn't need that political support because he is No.1 in the world already, judges will not score him down (it's the same as saying their previous scoring is not trustable), they will just scores others up and up regardless of the quality and quantity. Some don't need transitions to get huge scores, some don't get quality and speed to get huge score. If you ask me, does Yuzuru need political support? No he does not. He needs that 4lz for Olympic.

Yes, see, the bold is my problem, something we've been talking about forever. If they keep scoring others up, in both GOEs and PCS, at one point they will all stack up at the top. And Yuzuru won't water down his programs so to skate clean, it's really difficult. Come Olympics, when everyone is pushing the hardest, he won't be able to put not a foot wrong, but a pinky wrong! So that 4Lz being trained now is what may be the decider in the end.
I still say though that JSF, even without the reach some feds have, should be pretty clear about their number one.

 

[Meoima]

Yes, see, the bold is my problem, something we've been talking about forever. If they keep scoring others up, in both GOEs and PCS, at one point they will all stack up at the top. And Yuzuru won't water down his programs so to skate clean, it's really difficult. Come Olympics, when everyone is pushing the hardest, he won't be able to put not a foot wrong, but a pinky wrong! So that 4Lz being trained now is what may be the decider in the end.
I still say though that JSF, even without the reach some feds have, should be pretty clear about their number one.

That's my point, he doesn't need political support because he's at the place judges can not score him down if he does well. The thing is, others will just score up regardless of the transitions or choreographic movements they don't do. In the end, What he needs is higher BV so when the time come and everyone gets the same GOE and PCS, he can win.
But again, he has to skate clean first.

 

[narcissa]

Ahhh the quad race hwell: - I'm worried about Nathan, he seems to be catching up with Yuzuru's tech score at a crazy pace. He might be a big challenger at Peongchang

I watched nationals with a friend who doesn't really watch figure skating as much, and when he saw Nathan's skate he was like, "I bet he's gonna be Olympic champion!" :hopelessness: I do want Nathan to do well, get a silver or bronze (and I also want Javi to medal), but still, I want Yuzuru to win so badly.

 

[narcissa]

I still say though that JSF, even without the reach some feds have, should be pretty clear about their number one.

I agree, if everyone skates clean, especially if he doesn't skate last, judges can very well go with the explosive newcomer who made the most "magic" at the last minute, especially if he's a bit tight.

But is JSF not clear about their #1? I thought its obvious he is their #1 for sure. And since there are no hometown favorites, his fans won't let him down and will show up to Peongchyang in droves.

 

[HanDomi]

One thing is sure. Hanyu needs to deliver this Worlds. Like he really HAVE to. Last year Worlds was just incredible dissapointment. Judges were ready to reward him there and he missed big time. He needs to prove this year he is N1 in the world.

 

[Hanmgse]

One thing is sure. Hanyu needs to deliver this Worlds. Like he really HAVE to. Last year Worlds was just incredible dissapointment. Judges were ready to reward him there and he missed big time. He needs to prove this year he is N1 in the world.

This Worlds are going to be more nerve wracking than ever

 

[gladiolusc]

I watched nationals with a friend who doesn't really watch figure skating as much, and when he saw Nathan's skate he was like, "I bet he's gonna be Olympic champion!" :hopelessness: I do want Nathan to do well, get a silver or bronze (and I also want Javi to medal), but still, I want Yuzuru to win so badly.

Could happen of course, given Olympics is still a whole year away. The 44 PCS is inflated for what he does cos nationals, but in a well-driven Olympic campaign it's going to head there internationally.

Depends on what Yuzu values maybe. A balance between pursuing his ideal skate and achieving enough consistency with the smartest program for him. I'd love for him to be back-to-back OGM, no better validation for his ideals of skating (great complexity, emotional, musical, jumps woven right in) (and which I adore) than that. And then after that he gets to play with 4A all he wants without kuyashii (or just with less kuyashii)