Zhang Hopes to Improve on Grand Prix Success

[museksk8r]

I think Kostner will be favored because she's got a track record of success.

That's debatable. She is SO inconsistent! Aside from just last season, her results have been all over the lot over the years due to her injuries and intense pressure from the Italian federation. She has not proven to be a solid or dependable competitor by any consistent means, internationally speaking outside of Europeans.

 

[Buttercup]

museksk8r, let me try and clarify what I meant: I agree Kostner's inconsistent. But she has been a senior skater since 2003, and has had some very good results, including two medals at Worlds and two European championships. I can't comment on her vs. Zhang, whom I've yet to see skate, but isn't Kostner the stronger jumper?

 

[museksk8r]

I think Kostner is favored because of her strong skating skills, her second to none speed, her long arm and leg lines, her interesting choreography, command over the full ice surface, and the confidence and attack she displays on the ice. She has this fearless, risky quality to her overall skating that makes the judges eat out of the palm of her hand.

Rochette I believe has the strongest jumps in the Skate Canada field when she's on. Her technique is controlled whereas Carolina can be all over the place with her jumps. Joannie's downfall is always in her PCS scoring, plus, she HAS TO skate better in the SP, which has been her weakness in the past.

Zhang has much weaker skating skills, technique, and speed than Kostner and Rochette. Caroline does have strong audience connection and a good ability to feel her music and on paper she does have the difficulty.

I expect these 3 to be on the Skate Canada podium in any order.

 

[ChrisH]

I don't know if museksk8r is being sarcastic or not. I think that Caroline will be favored over Carolina in the overall (TES+PCS). As for Carolina getting higher PCS than Caroline, I think that's likely, but not a certainty. I didn't watch Carolina's skates at Karl Schafer to see if her PCS scores were warranted or not despite of all of her falls. Neither Skate Canada nor the GPF are being held in Europe, so I doubt that the judges will be overly generous to Carolina with the PCS.

 

[museksk8r]

I'm being realistic in my opinions, not sarcastic. Caroline MAYBE can beat Carolina on TES if Kostner falls apart, but there is no question for me that Carolina will likely overtake Caroline in the PCS scores.

 

[Blades of Passion]

For the 2008-09 season, Zhang plans to start out using a triple flip-triple toe loop combination, triple loop and double Axel in her short program. Her long will include two double Axels, a triple flip, a triple Salchow, a triple Lutz, and three combinations: triple flip-triple toe, triple Lutz-double toe, and triple loop-double toe-double loop.

Did we miss the triple salchow before or has the article been updated?

I'd love to know how she is going to put a Triple Salchow into that jump layout, since it would add up to 8 jumping passes.

If that's the case, how come Valentina Marchei, Karel Zalenka, Cappellini/Lanotte and the other Italians aren't feeling the love, too?

Kostner is the strongest hope for Europe in the female singles field. That is why she has such a backing and why judges will prop her up.

 

[feraina]

I'm being realistic in my opinions, not sarcastic. Caroline MAYBE can beat Carolina on TES if Kostner falls apart, but there is no question for me that Carolina will likely overtake Caroline in the PCS scores.

But the chance of Carolina falling apart in a LP, if you include falls, pops, and step-outs, is like what, 95%? Her LP at last Worlds was maybe her cleanest LP in memory, and how many people were disgruntled with her scoring because of the ugly landings? Whereas the chance of Caroline having one of those (falls, pops, step-outs) is significantly lower. In their two head-to-head competitions so far, Caroline beat Carolina by 13 points at CoC, and lost to Carolina by 2.5 at GPF, and Caroline skated her two worst LP's at these two comps (2 falls & downgrades at CoC, 1 fall and 1 downgrade at GPF). While Carolina can count on higher PCS than Caroline, she always gets lower TES, not only because of the unclean jumps, but also because of lower levels and GOE's on the spins and spirals.

Anyway, I think from competitive records, it is not clear that Carolina would definitely do better than Caroline head-to-head. And plus, Caroline did great at GW (whopping 181) versus Carolina's Karl Schaefer results (143). Even taking into account that different competitions score somewhat differently, that's a huge lead. Carolina typically struggles during the GP season.

 

[feraina]

I'd love to know how she is going to put a Triple Salchow into that jump layout, since it would add up to 8 jumping passes.

I think they did insert the 3S later into the article (I was surprised upon re-reading), but then forgot to take out a 2A. She only did one 2A at GW. Plus I'm still not convinced that she's repeating the 3Z instead of the 3R.

 

[Mathman]

About being "favored," I think it would be regarded as a major coup if Caroline Zhang topped both the reigning world silver medalist and the Canadian champion in her own house.

To tell the truth, I don't know who to root for. All of my faves -- Fumie Suguri, Alissa Czisny, Jenni Vahama, Bebe Liang, Cynthia Phaneuf -- they can't all medal.

 

[lmarie086]

About being "favored," I think it would be regarded as a major coup if Caroline Zhang topped both the reigning world silver medalist and the Canadian champion in her own house.

To tell the truth, I don't know who to root for. All of my faves -- Fumie Suguri, Alissa Czisny, Jenni Vahama, Bebe Liang, Cynthia Phaneuf -- they can't all medal.

Doesn't it make you wish they had bigger podiums sometimes?

I do think Caroline could beat Carolina and maybe even Joannie. It definitely would be a pretty big deal. But in the sense that I am not a Carolina fan at all, I probably am not being objective in the least.
I like Joannie, but I can't say (I really think/hope) that Caroline could beat Carolina (world silver medalist) but not Joannie (6th in the world, am I correct?) as that wouldn't make sense, even if it is what I'd like to see.

 

[museksk8r]

Joannie (6th in the world, am I correct?)

Joannie finished 5th at 2008 Worlds and was 5th at the 2006 Olympics.

Personal Best Scores Combined Totals:
Kostner 184.68
Rochette 179.54
Zhang 176.48

 

[antmanb]

What is so funny about ChrisH's statement? Caroline Z beat Carolina K at CoC last year, and Caroline Z's gpf score came close to Carolina's, which was her best performance last year. AND we know how they've performed over the summer.

Because Carolina is much faster is not a reason to favor her. Is there any reason Kostner should be highly favored over Zhang?

My reading of the laughter was because for some reason the judges don't seem to actually watch Kostner's performances and pull ridiculous PCS marks even when she struggles to land a triple. I think any lady (bar maybe Mao) is going to struggle when Kostner apparently has slipped straight into Stlutskaya's PCS shoes.

Ant

 

[lcd]

hmmm... good point... the mantle of "great European hope" does have its sway....

 

[gsk8]

still no 3S included in her long program?

There is indeed. Just checked and she had left that out. The article has been updated. :agree: