Grand Prix Final Analysis

[alexaa]

Even with the huge GOE on his 4Lz combo, Samarin will need to land more than 1-2 quads in his FS to be competitive with them.

Samarin did beat Nathan in sp at IdF last year. We would see a very very motivated and formidable Nathan after GPF if that does happen. It is not a bad thing for Nathan

Not saying he is not motivated enough though, Nathan, in my eyes, was in his worst shape in IdF considering the amount of travel, schools he had prior to and in the week of IdF, not to mention he was physically sick right after, if not during his FS at SkAm.

As to Yuzu, as long as Yuzuru is healthy and overcome his nerves, it is almost impossible for Samarin to challenge him. It is not only good GOE is needed, Samarin needs the stamina to perform the program on top of delivering 3 to 4 quads.

 

[discode]

I know ice is slippery, but it's not that slippery. Samarin could be 1st in the SP if he's really on and they are not, but I don't see him being able to compete in the FS against their combined BV and saltiness. And the GPs without them, the scores were at least 30+ below what they were when they were there.

I don't think either one is coming to the GPF to play. Nathan is also on a break now so should be pretty well trained and rested and Yuzu is Yuzu.

 

[Ice Dance]

Nathan & Yuzuru are both fully capable of mucking up under a higher bar of pressure. (They didn't face it on the GP, but they will face more of it against each other). I don't think the question is really whether Samarin or Jin or Aliev can get past them. The question is whether Nathan & Yuzuru can muck up enough for someone else--most likely someone that skates earlier in the lineup & has no clue the door is about to open--to pass them with a solid skate.

And, yeah, sure I think it could happen. Nathan tends to rise to the occasion under pressure, but he has a lot of difficulty, and he isn't afraid to put a new jump layout on the ice before it is 100%--especially if he goes before Hanyu & therefore doesn't know what he will need. Nathan's programs are not usually at 100% by the GPF. I don't expect him to be there this season, though when he gets there, he's going to want to win. Hanyu looks a lot closer to polished status (having kept his program and not competing the lutz), but he does have a lengthy history of imploded free skates. They have been fewer in number since injuries & Nathan came on the scene, but potential is potential.

These two are the favorites for good reason (by many points), but they could take themselves out of it.

In which case, they would probably just be more fired up for late in the season.

 

[sworddance21]

I know ice is slippery, but it's not that slippery. Samarin could be 1st in the SP if he's really on and they are not, but I don't see him being able to compete in the FS against their combined BV and saltiness. And the GPs without them, the scores were at least 30+ below what they were when they were there.

I don't think either one is coming to the GPF to play. Nathan is also on a break now so should be pretty well trained and rested and Yuzu is Yuzu.

Also - I think both Nathan and Yuzu are super competitive. If they feel they need to either one of them could throw an extra quad into a free skate for good measure. We've seen it from Nathan before.

 

[TontoK]

I know ice is slippery, but it's not that slippery. Samarin could be 1st in the SP if he's really on and they are not, but I don't see him being able to compete in the FS against their combined BV and saltiness. And the GPs without them, the scores were at least 30+ below what they were when they were there.

I don't think either one is coming to the GPF to play. Nathan is also on a break now so should be pretty well trained and rested and Yuzu is Yuzu.

I don't know the mind of either athlete, and I'm certain they want to win whenever they face each other head-to-head.

But, honestly, I don't think either of them care much about the GPF, compared to the WC.

I'm certainly not suggesting that this will be a Japan Open kind of event, but I bet they are both viewing it as a tune up.

 

[oatmella]

https://twitter.com/juronom/status/1198502223312932864?s=21

From this translation, Yuzu just said in an interview: “Then, GPF to me, I think, honestly, it is only a battle between Nathan and I, but I want to win, so the victory will be really meaningful to me.”

 

[Noxchild]

Somehow I have a feeling (or wishful desire LOL) that Yuzu will win GPF and Nathan will threepeat Worlds. Or who knows? Looking forward to part one of their battle!

 

[WeakAnkles]

https://twitter.com/juronom/status/1198502223312932864?s=21

From this translation, Yuzu just said in an interview: “Then, GPF to me, I think, honestly, it is only a battle between Nathan and I, but I want to win, so the victory will be really meaningful to me.”

Mr Hanyu is a smart competitor.

 

[lzxnl]

Somehow I have a feeling (or wishful desire LOL) that Yuzu will win GPF and Nathan will threepeat Worlds. Or who knows? Looking forward to part one of their battle!

Historically, Yuzuru has won Worlds when he hasn't gotten injured that season since Sochi I believe. So, let's hope he can stay healthy this season.

Also, Yuzuru might want to win 4CC just that one time, so if Nathan decides to care about 4CC this year (why not? If Yuzuru will be there, it'll be another Worlds tune-up for him), we might see three clashes between Yuzuru and Nathan. That would be fascinating.

 

[khtmyzr]

I didn't quite get it. Did you mean he actually paid close attention to NHK and tracked the results real time?

Personally I think he wasn’t following it live and didn’t expect to be in GPF, hence mentioned about doing a vlog. After he found out he’s going (possibly on his own or someone contacted him), he aborted the vlog plan - implying he’ll have to start preparing for the final... or at least that’s how I interpreted it.

 

[TallyT]

Historically, Yuzuru has won Worlds when he hasn't gotten injured that season since Sochi I believe. So, let's hope he can stay healthy this season.

Yes please, he's due some karmic gold.

 

[zanadude]

Finally! A Ladies competition where we don't know in advance who's going to win!

 

[alexaa]

Historically, Yuzuru has won Worlds when he hasn't gotten injured that season since Sochi I believe. So, let's hope he can stay healthy this season.

Also, Yuzuru might want to win 4CC just that one time, so if Nathan decides to care about 4CC this year (why not? If Yuzuru will be there, it'll be another Worlds tune-up for him), we might see three clashes between Yuzuru and Nathan. That would be fascinating.

It is in Korea, and not long after us nats. I doubt Nathan would attend. He would be missing too much school.

 

[Ice Dance]

School. I think Nathan will probably consider the GPF and U.S. Nationals an adequate tune up. Hanyu will be at the former and the world bronze medalist will be at the latter. I don't think Nathan would underestimate Vincent. The better question might be whether Yuzuru will finally attend Japanese Nationals.

 

[lzxnl]

School. I think Nathan will probably consider the GPF and U.S. Nationals an adequate tune up. Hanyu will be at the former and the world bronze medalist will be at the latter. I don't think Nathan would underestimate Vincent. The better question might be whether Yuzuru will finally attend Japanese Nationals.

Yuzuru really doesn't need any quads for Japanese Nationals, unless Shoma pulls himself together fast enough. Even then, his 4Lo is probably already overkill.

 

[MintGreen]

Personally I think he wasn’t following it live and didn’t expect to be in GPF, hence mentioned about doing a vlog. After he found out he’s going (possibly on his own or someone contacted him), he aborted the vlog plan - implying he’ll have to start preparing for the final... or at least that’s how I interpreted it.

I see. That makes sense. Because I have a hard time to imagine and believe that Boyang would be sitting in front of TV while holding a calculator in hand. Looks he was just out there to enjoy some time off and got noticed of the situation and figured out he needed go back to training.

 

[ElSoteroLoco]

I am so happy Kevin and Boyang is in. This men's event just may be the best GPF in a while! Who knows how it may turn out the results. I don't even want to enter any type of prediction!! I would honestly like to see ALL the men skate lights out flawless performances in both the SP and FS! But again....soooooo happy Boyang and Kevin are in!!!

 

[century2009]

It is in Korea, and not long after us nats. I doubt Nathan would attend. He would be missing too much school.

I dont think Nathan and Hanyu will attend 4CC. Nathan because of school and US National. And Hanyu because he probably looking towards Worlds for another battle.

 

[BabySloth]

I dont think Nathan and Hanyu will attend 4CC. Nathan because of school and US National. And Hanyu because he probably looking towards Worlds for another battle.

I think Yuzuru might go to 4CC if he's healthy and Nathan doesn't attend. After his SCI win, 4CC is officially his only missing title in his career. (sorry a bit unrelated to the thread)

 

[Colonel Green]

And Hanyu because he probably looking towards Worlds for another battle.

Why would he need to skip Four Continents on that basis? Unless you're injured and need to conserve yourself (which has been an issue for Hanyu with not going to 4CC in the past), it's good to have competitions at regular intervals.