LOL it would probably take forever to make a chart like that now and maybe half an hour to get through!
LOL it would probably take forever to make a chart like that now and maybe half an hour to get through!Here are the details of the quads (including Evan's) attempted in major international competitions in the four seasons leading up to Vancouver:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/02/18/sports/olympics/0218-quad.html#tab=0
What a difference it's been these last four years. I'd love to see an updated list.
No way is Evan going to get a bronze medal in Sochi unless everyone else completely melts down. 3rd place, you serious? He'd probably need to do 3 (maybe 4) quads between his 2 programs to wind up on the podium. Four years ago we saw Evan try a quad ONCE in his competitive season and the result was a 4t< fall. He doesn't have the skating skills of Chan or the performance ability of Takahashi, and they have been competing and doing quads in recent seasons. Lysacek can maybe make the lower top 10 in Sochi if he even makes the team at all. He just won't be competitive.
I'm amazing, I know. (Yes, this took a really, really long time.)
[[*]Max Aaron
- # of attempts, success rate: 5/5 = 100%
- With +GOE: 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2013 4CC FS (2)
- With -GOE: None!
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED.
....
Max Aaron
....
- # of attempts, success rate: 5/5 = 100%
- With +GOE: 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2013 4CC FS (2)
- With -GOE: None!
I'm amazing, I know. (Yes, this took a really, really long time.)
I was also going to add Takahiko Kozuka, Nobunari Oda, Tomas Verner, and Evgeni Plushenko on this list as "honorable mentions" ...
Generally speaking regarding the quads, what skaters plan to do and what they actually might manage to do at the Olympics are two different matters.....
Using the top ten skaters of the most current World championships, quad attempts from 2010-2011 to present (A-level competitions, no National championships): ...
The 100% success-rate would make Max the Plushy equivalent of this period (Plushy had 6/6 in the last period).
Continuing on ...
Evgeni Plushenko
- # of attempts, success rate: 1/1 = 100% (Take that, Max Aaron! Hahaha!)
- With +GOE: 2012 EUR FS (1)
- With -GOE: None!
Thank you so much for all your work, aftertherain!
Max for 2014 Oympic Champion, Yay!
Thanks to aftertherain for the addendum.
To my friend LRK : Note that Plushenko's tally is only 1/1, according to aftertherain's criterion of only A-level competitions. [Still 100%, LOL.]
aftertherain said:Takahiko Kozuka
# of attempts, success rate: 3/20 = 15% (I'm sorry; you're adorable, but you suck at quads.)
Continuing on ...[/B
After doing the analysis, I would have to agree with this. No skater has had a >70% success rate on their quads except for Max Aaron and Evgeni Plushenko (both did relatively fewer though)--but even if they do perform beautiful quads, who's to say they won't botch other elements as well? If Evan is anywhere near his 2009-2010 season, he might not need them (unless he is up against Mr. Chiddy). Patrick not be the most artistic skater in the world, but his second mark should surely beat flailing arms even if Evan goes clean. Strictly hypothetical, of course.
True no one has really tested leaving out quads entirely since Verner I think in the gp part of the 2010-2011. There's also a German guy at 2013 worlds. You have to be committed and confident like Lysacek in nit doing any quads. But the issue is that there are less points avaiable on steps and goe triples.
Thanks to aftertherain for the addendum.
To my friend LRK : Note that Plushenko's tally is only 1/1, according to aftertherain's criterion of only A-level competitions. [Still 100%, LOL.]
Yup! But if I had factored in B-level/fluff competitions, neither Max nor Evgeni would have 100% anymore. I just checked. Both Evgeni and Max did have -GOE on quads in those competitions.
But since the NYT article only factored in "major" competitions, I decided to do that too. (Also because it would save some time.)