Predictions on Worlds in each discipline

[silverfoxes]

I expect a Russian man on the podium this year. It's time. I know which one I would prefer but I don't want to set myself up for disappointment.

 

[chuckm]

Anyone but Kovtun. Please!!

 

[desertskates]

I don't know, I just have that feeling. And I'm often wrong. But maybe Rippon or Brezina?

And maybe the ladies will hold the surprise, because there is usually one big "WHOA!" per event. But I feel confident that Ashley's got this.
Just my musings...

 

[Mrs. P]

It hasn't been THAT long since a Russian man was on the podium -- 4 years. I guess everyone forgets Gachinski's bronze because how poorly he's fared since then.

This is a key opportunity year for a lot of skaters. Cause basically next year Patrick Chan will be back and likely have a hold on the podium until 2018 (with Hanyu and Fernandez (probably)).

 

[Li'Kitsu]

With such an open field for the third podium spot, who would be a big surprise? Jason Brown? Misha Ge? Amodio?

There are "favorite" for that 3rd spot: Denis Ten, Maxim Kovtun and, to a lesser extent, Sergei Voronov. Denis has medaled in the biggest events those last 2 seasons, Kovtun was the leading man after the GP, Voronov was the man to complete the GPF podium. Compared to that, there are quite a lot of guys who would count as an upset: Brown, Farris, Rippon, Han, Kozuka, Nguyen... maybe Kozuka too, given that he was so extremely inconsistent since 2011. And YMMV on Mura, I guess.

 

[Mrs. P]

There are "favorite" for that 3rd spot: Denis Ten, Maxim Kovtun and, to a lesser extent, Sergei Voronov. Denis has medaled in the biggest events those last 2 seasons, Kovtun was the leading man after the GP, Voronov was the man to complete the GPF podium. Compared to that, there are quite a lot of guys who would count as an upset: Brown, Farris, Rippon, Han, Kozuka, Nguyen... maybe Kozuka too, given that he was so extremely inconsistent since 2011. And YMMV on Mura, I guess.

Honestly, there just needs to be a singular predictions game for that bronze-winning spot. For CASH.

You can do odds!

I guess I would put it at high/medium/low

High: Kovtun, Ten, Voronov
Middle: Mura (due to making GPF), Farris, Rippon, Han, Nguyen, Kozuka, Brezina (due to presence of quads)
Low: Brown, Ge (due to lack of quads)

You probably could safely predict that all of these guys are likely to end up in the top 14 in some order.

 

[Sandpiper]

Satoko may run into obstacles when the puberty monster hits, b/c right now she can rely on her diminutive size to get in those rotations... but once she grows a few inch all bets are off unless she learns to get more height on those jumps.

Okay, at the risk of making the thread explode... Thank you for mentioning the elephant in the room. Crazy as this sounds, this might be the first time I've heard someone say Satoko could struggle with puberty. Even though her jumps are already the tiniest of the field, even though she's already getting hit with URs, the dominant narrative I'm hearing is, "Oh, Satoko just needs to grow bigger; then she'll get monster jumps and monster PCS and crush all the Russians!" Meanwhile, for every single Russian girl outside of Liza, there are constant remarks that they'll lose their jumps in a year and thus nothing they accomplish right now is worth anything.

Not that I have anything against Satoko, but some balance must be applied. The double standard has been bugging me for a while.

Jason and Misha would be considered huge surprises because they don't have quads, namely. I personally think it comes down to who could execute planned content the best, quad or no.

Florent would be an even bigger surprise, quad or no quad, considering how crappy his skating has been...

I don't think there's NO chance of them medaling. Funny enough, Kanako has never been considered a potential medalist (compared to favourites) at Worlds, but then she usually sets herself up with a strong SP. I do like the tough love, and Hongo has been solid (unfortunately, it's her breakout season, so a medal opportunity is hard, not to mention there's Russians/Americans who score much higher in the PCS dept).

I don't think they have no chance. Just speculating if the Japanese Federation thinks so, hence the bloodbath tech calls.

 

[silverfoxes]

It hasn't been THAT long since a Russian man was on the podium -- 4 years. I guess everyone forgets Gachinski's bronze because how poorly he's fared since then.

I didn't forget about Artur's bronze, but I think the rivalry between Maxim and Sergei has been building toward this and they are going to be well prepared and ready to fight.

There are "favorite" for that 3rd spot: Denis Ten, Maxim Kovtun and, to a lesser extent, Sergei Voronov. Denis has medaled in the biggest events those last 2 seasons, Kovtun was the leading man after the GP, Voronov was the man to complete the GPF podium. Compared to that, there are quite a lot of guys who would count as an upset: Brown, Farris, Rippon, Han, Kozuka, Nguyen... maybe Kozuka too, given that he was so extremely inconsistent since 2011. And YMMV on Mura, I guess.

I'm not sure why Sergei would be a favorite "to a lesser extent." He's the #2 man in the world right now. IMO he has slightly better odds than Maxim for the medal (and not just because I like him better). He underperformed at the Euros, but 1. so did everyone else 2. that was his 8th competition of the season, and he was quite consistent up until then. Worlds is over a month away, so they all have time to rest and regain their energy.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

I'm not sure why Sergei would be a favorite "to a lesser extent." He's the #2 man in the world right now. IMO he has slightly better odds than Maxim for the medal (and not just because I like him better). He underperformed at the Euros, but 1. so did everyone else 2. that was his 7th competition of the season, and he was quite consistent up until then. Worlds is over a month away, so they all have time to rest and regain their energy.

Please don't get me wrong, I like Voronov... I'm just basing this of the overall impression I got from different coments around the internet. Maybe it's because he wasn't the last season. Or because he doesn't have the same PCS safety boost. But IMO, a lot of people seem to rather bet on the other two

 

[kresslia]

Well, let's look at the scores of the men who have gotten bronze the past few years at Worlds:

2011: Gachinski, 241.86
2012: Hanyu, 251.06
2013: Fernandez, 249.06
2014: Fernandez, 275.93 (big drop off to 4th--247.37)

So basically I'd say you want to be scoring around 250 to make the podium.

PBs around that:

Hanyu 288.16
Fernandez 265.01
Mura 255.81
Voronov 252.00
Ten 249.94
Kovtun 243.35

The main contenders. I agree.

 

[Mrs. P]

Well, let's look at the scores of the men who have gotten bronze the past few years at Worlds:

2011: Gachinski, 241.86
2012: Hanyu, 251.06
2013: Fernandez, 249.06
2014: Fernandez, 275.93 (big drop off to 4th--247.37)

So basically I'd say you want to be scoring around 250 to make the podium.

PBs around that:

Hanyu 288.16
Fernandez 265.01
Mura 255.81
Voronov 252.00
Ten 249.94
Kovtun 243.35

The main contenders. I agree.

That's the SB list, you're looking at, I think?

 

[tokugawaice]

Okay, at the risk of making the thread explode... Thank you for mentioning the elephant in the room. Crazy as this sounds, this might be the first time I've heard someone say Satoko could struggle with puberty. Even though her jumps are already the tiniest of the field, even though she's already getting hit with URs, the dominant narrative I'm hearing is, "Oh, Satoko just needs to grow bigger; then she'll get monster jumps and monster PCS and crush all the Russians!" Meanwhile, for every single Russian girl outside of Liza, there are constant remarks that they'll lose their jumps in a year and thus nothing they accomplish right now is worth anything.

Yep! Like w/ Caroline Zhang sometimes tough love is needed. Start making changes before it's too late!

 

[Interspectator]

Okay, at the risk of making the thread explode... Thank you for mentioning the elephant in the room. Crazy as this sounds, this might be the first time I've heard someone say Satoko could struggle with puberty. Even though her jumps are already the tiniest of the field, even though she's already getting hit with URs, the dominant narrative I'm hearing is, "Oh, Satoko just needs to grow bigger; then she'll get monster jumps and monster PCS and crush all the Russians!" Meanwhile, for every single Russian girl outside of Liza, there are constant remarks that they'll lose their jumps in a year and thus nothing they accomplish right now is worth anything.

Not that I have anything against Satoko, but some balance must be applied. The double standard has been bugging me for a while.

She has grown a little bit this year...but the result seems to have helped her jumps rather than hindered them. --So far, fingers crossed. I think some are imagining that she could turn out like Narumi Takahashi who is in her 20s, but looks nearly the same now as she did when she was 15. So, Satoko is 16 going on 17...if she passes 17 without much change in her body shape, I'd say she's out of the woods as far as puberty goes. I'm waiting to see. In the meanwhile, she works hard to jump higher, and rotate faster, and that's all she can do.
She has gone to America with Shoma and Mura this year to improve her jumping technique. So her team is not blind to the fact that her jumps need help.

 

[Sandpiper]

She has grown a little bit this year...but the result seems to have helped her jumps rather than hindered them. --So far, fingers crossed. I think some are imagining that she could turn out like Narumi Takahashi who is in her 20s, but looks nearly the same now as she did when she was 15. So, Satoko is 16 going on 17...if she passes 17 without much change in her body shape, I'd say she's out of the woods as far as puberty goes. I'm waiting to see. In the meanwhile, she works hard to jump higher, and rotate faster, and that's all she can do.
She has gone to America with Shoma and Mura this year to improve her jumping technique. So her team is not blind to the fact that her jumps need help.

I'm sure her team will do what's best for her; they certainly know more than I can ever hope to. I'm just pointing out the double standard that seems prevalent on the forum (not by you... but there are a few people who need to mention "puberty, puberty!" every time a Russian accomplishes something... but are strangely silent when it's an American or Japanese skater).

I don't think Satoko's doomed or anything... I generally take the "wait and see" approach. But it rather unfair when someone like Elena Radionova--who currently has fewer tech issues, and has already grown a lot this season--constantly gets the "Who cares? She'll be gone with puberty and no one will remember her in a few years" dismissal. Meanwhile, Satoko is given a pass. I say, if you're gonna be dismissive and cynical, at least apply it equally to all skaters.

 

[Crossover]

Ladies: 1. Liza 2. Ashley or Gracie 3. Radionova: I have a weird vibe that one of US ladies can go up as high as to 2nd place after watching the U.S. nationals.
4CC will be very important for Gold to stack up her PCS.
Mens: Kinds of a lackluster game for the champion title since Machida is retired.:hopelessness:. I can't ever imagine anyone can challenge the title until Chan comes back or a unexpected new dark horse emerges. Kazakh Ten can take silver, but not gold even if he shows a magic like the World 2013. Mura/Fernandez/Russian (either Voronov or Kovtun) out for the bronze.
Pairs:If Pang/Tong could manage to win the title at 4CC, I would say they could have a shot for the title, but I'm not sure since they have been out of almost this season. 2. D/R 3. K/S or S/H
Ice dance: 1. W/P 2. C/B 3. P/C

 

[Coltrocks12]

I don't want to blow up the thread either, but I do need to say that puberty/adolescence has a way of knocking out promising skaters. Kimmie Meissner and Caroline Zhang come to mind. They were beautiful skaters in their early teens then suddenly at about 16 or so their bodies changed and presto chango! Suddenly they were falling and not competing well. I don't know if it is as simple as the body changing or if mindset and emotional well-being are in play too. Changing hormones affect all of those things. Makes me worry about all of the promising skaters who are under the age of 17 like Julia, Polina, and Satoko.

 

[Silvia451]

Men:
1. Yuzuru
2. Denis
3. Javi
(4. Nam)

Ladies:
1. Liza
2. Elena
3. Anna

And I dare to dream at a gold medal for Stolbova/Klimov

 

[Jammers]

I don't want to blow up the thread either, but I do need to say that puberty/adolescence has a way of knocking out promising skaters. Kimmie Meissner and Caroline Zhang come to mind. They were beautiful skaters in their early teens then suddenly at about 16 or so their bodies changed and presto chango! Suddenly they were falling and not competing well. I don't know if it is as simple as the body changing or if mindset and emotional well-being are in play too. Changing hormones affect all of those things. Makes me worry about all of the promising skaters who are under the age of 17 like Julia, Polina, and Satoko.

Caroline Zhang had numerous issues that had nothing to do with body changes though that didn't help. Her jump technique was terrible with the mule kick and she was always slow as molasses on the ice. Everyone ignored those things because she was successful as a Junior but it wasn't going to cut it at the Senior level and then she grew and it was all over.

 

[taltaltel]

Expecting a splatfest all around.

Men
1. Denis Ten (doubles a 3A, stepout on 3Lo)
2. Yuzuru Hanyu (2 falls in the free on 4S and 3Lz)
3. Maxim Kovtun (stepout on 4T, falls on 4S)

Ladies
1. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (falls on a 3A attempt but lands all other triples beautifully, major PCS boost up to 72~73)
2. Ashley Wagner (edge call on 3Lz, level 2 and 3 spins but extremely high PCS ~74)
3. Elena Radionova (huge stepout of 3Lz-3T combo, fall on the 3Lo-2T combo in the free)
Others -
Gracie Gold (crashes into the boards yet again on 3Lz-3T in both the short and the free, falls on 3F, singles the axel on her 2A-3T combo)
Satoko Miyahara (hit by URs on both 3Lzs, 3Lo and one 2A in the free to finish fifth)

 

[HanDomi]

Ok I 'm changing my prediction

1. Yuzuru
2. Denis
3. Javi