What if Cohen does not win a top 3 spot at Nat's?

[Mathman]

...Unless Michelle has done something miraculous over the summer that greatly improved her spins and increased her extension on her spirals, she's not going to beat Sasha in those areas. As for jumps, both ladies have the same level of tech...

By the numbers...

Here are Sasha's and Michelle's point totals from 2005 Worlds (the only time Michelle has competed under the NJS). Both of them are pretty much maxed out on the jumps, without a triple/triple. If you don't have a triple/triple or a double Axel / triple, the only way you can work in a seventh triple is by a triple/triple sequence. Sasha did this with her 3T/3S SEQ. The other way to go is to tack a double loop onto a triple double, like Michelle did. Neither of these is quite as good (pointwise) as a triple/triple.

Sasha:

3Lz+2T 7.3 base mark.
3F+2T+2 8.1
3Lo 5.0
3F 5.5
3T+3S Seq 7.5 (factored by 70% for sequence instead of combo, but augmented by 10% for second half of the program)
2A 3.6
3S 5.0

Total 42.0

Michelle:

2A 3.3
3F+2T+2Lo 8.3
3Lz+2T 7.3
3F 5.5
3S 5.0
3Lz 6.6
3T+2T 5.8

Total 41.8

A bigger factor was that Michelle got -4.71 GOE on her jumps, plus -1 fall deduction.

Spins

Sasha: Two level 2 spins and three level 3's, for a total of 9.9 base level points. Plus positive GOEs. (This will probably by two level 3s and two level 4s under the new rules.)

Michelle: Two level 1s and two level 2s, for a total of 8.7.

Steps:

Sasha: One level 2 and one level 3, for 6.4 points, plus GOEs.

Michelle: Two level 2s, for 6.2 points.

Program components:

Sasha scored consistently .25 to .50 higher than Michelle across the judging panel, in every category.

Poor Michelle. No wonder she's faking an injury.

And yet...and yet...as Attyfan says, there is something about Michelle Kwan and Nationals...

MM

 

[R.D.]

By the numbers...

Here are Sasha's and Michelle's point totals from 2005 Worlds (the only time Michelle has competed under the NJS). Both of them are pretty much maxed out on the jumps, without a triple/triple. If you don't have a triple/triple or a double Axel / triple, the only way you can work in a seventh triple is by a triple/triple sequence. Sasha did this with her 3T/3S SEQ. The other way to go is to tack a double loop onto a triple double, like Michelle did. Neither of these is quite as good (pointwise) as a triple/triple.

Sasha:

3Lz+2T 7.3 base mark.
3F+2T+2 8.1
3Lo 5.0
3F 5.5
3T+3S Seq 7.5 (factored by 70% for sequence instead of combo, but augmented by 10% for second half of the program)
2A 3.6
3S 5.0

Total 42.0

Michelle:

2A 3.3
3F+2T+2Lo 8.3
3Lz+2T 7.3
3F 5.5
3S 5.0
3Lz 6.6
3T+2T 5.8

Total 41.8

A bigger factor was that Michelle got -4.71 GOE on her jumps, plus -1 fall deduction.

Spins

Sasha: Two level 2 spins and three level 3's, for a total of 9.9 base level points. Plus positive GOEs. (This will probably by two level 3s and two level 4s under the new rules.)

Michelle: Two level 1s and two level 2s, for a total of 8.7.

Steps:

Sasha: One level 2 and one level 3, for 6.4 points, plus GOEs.

Michelle: Two level 2s, for 6.2 points.

Program components:

Sasha scored consistently .25 to .50 higher than Michelle across the judging panel, in every category.

Poor Michelle. No wonder she's faking an injury.

And yet...and yet...as Attyfan says, there is something about Michelle Kwan and Nationals...

MM

Thx for the numbers, once again...

Yes...definitely something about MK and Nationals. But not last year, as I thought the entire ladies event (save for Kimmie) was a snooze. Hopefully next year will be better.

This Nats will be VERY interesting. I can't wait to see how the US scores everyone in relation to the international judges (There shouldn't be a difference though :scratch: )

What about that December event? The pro-ams also use Cop...so if Kwan AND Cohen can make it there that should be a preview of how the long programs will match up...

 

[attyfan]

... What about that December event? The pro-ams also use Cop...so if Kwan AND Cohen can make it there that should be a preview of how the long programs will match up...

I've heard rumors that the December event will be more of a "show" than a competition -- so Michelle can skate without violating the ISU rules. I don't know if these rumors are true or not -- I thought the ISU rules prohibited only skaters who opted out of GP in advance from doing shows or other competitions during the "GP period". There is supposed to be something coming down today from the usfsa on Marshall's, so stay tuned ...

 

[R.D.]

I've heard rumors that the December event will be more of a "show" than a competition

So in other words, only exhibition numbers will be performed? Or there will be no scoring?

 

[mzheng]

From some of here, you'd think MK would skate last years non-CoP friendly program this season.

I would gave Sasha's prop at this point, simply because she is already back to her full force trainning while Michelle is not, she is still limited in her trainning.

 

[SkateFan4Life]

I believe that the USFSA would send the three top women to the Olympics, and that's the only fair way to do it. If Sasha Cohen finished fourth, she would be the first alternate, but she would not skate at the Olympics unless one of the top three were unable to compete.

Frankly, I would be shocked if Sasha did NOT finish in the top three, but of course it's possible. She might be injured at Nationals, or she simply might blow her long program. I hope that doesn't happen, but if it does, the only right thing to do is to name the skaters to the team who finish in the top three. However, there are extending circumstances......

There were major controversies in the past in which injured skaters were named to the Olympic team. Back in 1992, Todd Eldredge, then the 1991 US champion and the 1991 World bronze medalist, withdrew at Nationals and was still named to the Olympic team. The US sent Christopher Bowman, Paul Wylie, and Todd to Albertville, and Mark Mitchell, who finished third, sat home and watched the Olympics on television. The USFSA named Eldredge to the team under the proviso that he would be physically able to compete. And Todd competed at Albertville and skated quite poorly and finished tenth.

Then, in 1994, Nancy Kerrigan, the reigning US champion, suffered the knee injury in the horrendous knee bashing attack, and she and Tonya Harding, who won the 1994 US title, were named to the Olympic team. Nancy had to skate before a panel of USFSA officials two weeks prior to the Olympics to demonstrate that she had healed and could skate competitively. Had Nancy been unable to compete, Michelle Kwan, the silver medalist, would have skated at Lillehammer. Instead, Michelle attended the games as a spectator.

So, if Sasha came to Nationals and had to withdraw with an injury, would she be named to the Olympic team? Quite possibly. If Sasha came to Nationals fit and well and skated poorly, would she be named to the Olympic team. Probably not.

That's how I see it, anyway.

 

[Doggygirl]

I believe that the USFSA would send the three top women to the Olympics, and that's the only fair way to do it. If Sasha Cohen finished fourth, she would be the first alternate, but she would not skate at the Olympics unless one of the top three were unable to compete.

Frankly, I would be shocked if Sasha did NOT finish in the top three, but of course it's possible. She might be injured at Nationals, or she simply might blow her long program. I hope that doesn't happen, but if it does, the only right thing to do is to name the skaters to the team who finish in the top three. However, there are extending circumstances......

There were major controversies in the past in which injured skaters were named to the Olympic team. Back in 1992, Todd Eldredge, then the 1991 US champion and the 1991 World bronze medalist, withdrew at Nationals and was still named to the Olympic team. The US sent Christopher Bowman, Paul Wylie, and Todd to Albertville, and Mark Mitchell, who finished third, sat home and watched the Olympics on television. The USFSA named Eldredge to the team under the proviso that he would be physically able to compete. And Todd competed at Albertville and skated quite poorly and finished tenth.

Then, in 1994, Nancy Kerrigan, the reigning US champion, suffered the knee injury in the horrendous knee bashing attack, and she and Tonya Harding, who won the 1994 US title, were named to the Olympic team. Nancy had to skate before a panel of USFSA officials two weeks prior to the Olympics to demonstrate that she had healed and could skate competitively. Had Nancy been unable to compete, Michelle Kwan, the silver medalist, would have skated at Lillehammer. Instead, Michelle attended the games as a spectator.

So, if Sasha came to Nationals and had to withdraw with an injury, would she be named to the Olympic team? Quite possibly. If Sasha came to Nationals fit and well and skated poorly, would she be named to the Olympic team. Probably not.

That's how I see it, anyway.

I see it that way too. Then there is the Nicole Bobek situation, where she claimed injury (did skate at Nationals, but poorly) and made her appeal to the USFSA. They turned her down, and as I read it, the USFSA was very angry with her for doing an extended tour (Nutcracker on Ice or something like that?) prior to Nationals when they felt she should be training.

So I do think there is some subjectivity involved. But...I think the outcome was right. Todd and Nancy were named to the team, and Nicole wasn't. I'm sure there are differing opinions, but I personally have no distaste for the subjective decisions that were made.

DG

 

[Frau Muller]

No way that Cohen won't win a top three spot. Even if she skips Nationals on injury or 'whatever', she'll qualify for a 'bye.'

I would be more nervous for Michelle making top three at Nationals, if she competes. It may sound nasty (conspiratorial) but I think that Michelle may have a stronger chance of making the Oly team by getting a bye - even if it's on the condition of a pre-Olympics 'demo' to a USFigureSkating panel of officials.

Imagine this scenario:

Nationals roll around and NEITHER Sasha nor Michelle participate, on basis of injury. Kimmie or Alissa or Bebe (or Emily or Amber or ????) make the podium. Whoever among the 'young ones' wins Nationals is given an automatic spot on the team. Michelle and Sasha have to do a 'skate-off' (or simply demonstrate thir skills & programs) to a panel, a week or two before Olympics. Only then will the Olympic trio of American ladies be named.

***Imagine the cost for 30-second commercials on TV, if it comes to some sort of skate-off, and it is telecast live!!!!!!

Blame the cynic in me but one never knows. Come back to my prediction, three months from now, if this happens.

p.s. The tally of CoP points, at the 'skate off' will determine who makes the team (besides the Nationals champ). In other words, the CoP tally of the 2nd & 3rd place finishers at Nationals has to be beaten by Sasha and Michelle. Interesting, huh?

 

[attyfan]

I wonder if the USFSA might do what the Japanese federation did and use the 4CCs as a "skate off". Not only if there are any problems with Michelle or Sasha, but also if the fight for the third spot is extremely close, the USFSA might want a second event to determine who should go.

If, G-d forbid, Michelle is hurt and can't skate at Nats, who wants to bet that, before giving her a bye, there will be a lot of fluff on Michelle in '94 giving way to Nancy?

 

[Mathman]

Frau M, that's a great suggestion! I'm going to write to the television networks and get them to bankroll it. The skate-off would draw a bigger audience than the Olympics. What a PR coup for the sport! Maybe the plan is already afoot, with Michelle and Sasha co-operating by withdrawing from the GP.

MM

 

[Doggygirl]

Q: What if Sasha does not earn a top 3 spot at Nats?

A: THE WORLD WILL END!!! Surely it will.

Although I do like that conspiracy theory where MK and SC BOTH fake injuries and are in cahoots for a skate off. They will sell "Pay Per Views" like a highly touted boxing match, and both make off with more money than we could ever imagine. They will then both retire to their respective private islands and watch future Olympic competitions from a beach with a cocktail in hand, including the requisite umbrella. (in the drink as well as over the head)

DG

 

[euterpe]

CoP makes it a lot easier for the judges to place the skaters where they want them than the 6.0 system was, and under CoP, it can be completely justified. Remember, Slutskaya won her trainwreck of a Euros FS on the basis of high PCS scores.

Kwan and Cohen will finish 1-2 at US Nationals simply because they are both complete skaters with established high world placements, and both will get high enough PCS scores to offset any mistakes they make.

Kimmie, Emily and BeBe are unfinished skaters and will get PCS scores in the low 6s. 3/3s and 3As can't make up the deficit.

Alissa tends to underrotate jumps and has simple footwork. Even if she skates cleanly, her PCS scores in the low to mid 7s will keep her behind Kwan and Cohen.

 

[attyfan]

...
Although I do like that conspiracy theory where MK and SC BOTH fake injuries and are in cahoots for a skate off. They will sell "Pay Per Views" like a highly touted boxing match, and both make off with more money than we could ever imagine. They will then both retire to their respective private islands and watch future Olympic competitions from a beach with a cocktail in hand, including the requisite umbrella. (in the drink as well as over the head)

DG

If they were in cahoots to make money, wouldn't they make it look the injuries that forced them to withdraw from the GP were deliberately caused by someone? The skater who won nats (or $peedy, who wants a cut from the skate-off) would make great suspects.

 

[orchid]

Q: What if Sasha does not earn a top 3 spot at Nats?

A: THE WORLD WILL END!!! Surely it will.

Although I do like that conspiracy theory where MK and SC BOTH fake injuries and are in cahoots for a skate off. They will sell "Pay Per Views" like a highly touted boxing match, and both make off with more money than we could ever imagine. They will then both retire to their respective private islands and watch future Olympic competitions from a beach with a cocktail in hand, including the requisite umbrella. (in the drink as well as over the head)

DG

Okay already, this thread is NOT another whether or who will place where, it about what if a favorite does not make the top three. Beit MK or SC, should the officials knock out a legitimate top three winner for, Oh I give, MK or SC?

 

[R.D.]

Kwan and Cohen will finish 1-2 at US Nationals simply because they are both complete skaters with established high world placements, and both will get high enough PCS scores to offset any mistakes they make.

Kimmie, Emily and BeBe are unfinished skaters and will get PCS scores in the low 6s. 3/3s and 3As can't make up the deficit.

Alissa tends to underrotate jumps and has simple footwork. Even if she skates cleanly, her PCS scores in the low to mid 7s will keep her behind Kwan and Cohen.

ITA. I just don't think the other skaters are up to the level of the top two to beat them convincingly even if one of the top two (or both!) have an off-night. I really am convinced the Olympic Team will be Kwan, Cohen and someone else, assuming all three are healthy enough.

 

[Doggygirl]

If they were in cahoots to make money, wouldn't they make it look the injuries that forced them to withdraw from the GP were deliberately caused by someone? The skater who won nats (or $peedy, who wants a cut from the skate-off) would make great suspects.

Well, since MK won nats last year IMO, she would not make a very good suspect for taking herself out of the game. But I suspect Speedy would be right there to take his cut from the Pay-Per-View skate off regardless.

Before I go any further with this silliness, I hope everyone realizes that my tongue is firmly planted in my cheek?

I'm not supposed to reveal this, but Sasha DID invite me to her private island. I'm bringing the blender, she's bringing the little umbrella thingy's. Is someone else willing to bring the Rum?

I truly hope nobody is taking this sort of post seriously!! I know it's an Oly year, but I'm getting a bit worried.....

DG

 

[R.D.]

Is someone else willing to bring the Rum?

Over here

I won't BRING it, per-se, but I'll be willing to parachute it

 

[brad640]

The only way Michelle or Sasha won't make it to the Olympics is if they withdraw completely and decline a bye. If they withdraw from nationals, it will have a ripple effect like Plushenko's withdrawal had in Moscow, causing the other skaters to buckle under the pressure to sieze the opportunity to win. I think Kimmie is vulnerable because she has very bad spirals and her spins are average, but I think she will end up on the team. The US judges marked her very high at Campbell's. I think the judging will be suspect at nationals because of the emotional desire of the judges to give Kwan #10 over Sasha. Worlds wil be very exciting after Michelle and Sasha retire.

 

[mzheng]

The US judges marked her very high at Campbell's. I think the judging will be suspect at nationals because of the emotional desire of the judges to give Kwan #10 over Sasha. Worlds wil be very exciting after Michelle and Sasha retire.

Well, after seeing how Alissa scored in GP, US judges may change their mind....Alissa's skating in many ways more mature than Kimmy.

As for Kwan's national, no one ever see her programs yet, so much speculations the US judges will be in favor to her. What if she skates better than Sasha and deserve to win?.....oh well, to some Kwan has been held up for a decada!

 

[mzheng]

Alissa tends to underrotate jumps and has simple footwork. Even if she skates cleanly, her PCS scores in the low to mid 7s will keep her behind Kwan and Cohen.

After finally watched Alissa's SA LP, I have to agree with you. Among those young next generations, she is the one with whole package, like witt said.