What if Cohen does not win a top 3 spot at Nat's?

[Kuchana]

Heaven help us if Michelle includes a Bielman. I don't want to see her join the Bielman bandwagon please.

As for Sasha being off at the podium at Nationals? Ain't gonna happen unless of course she really bombs like Michelle did at 97 Nationals. Same for Michelle as well. I expect to see both of these ladies at Turin.

And I don't think there will be much of an emotional impact on the judges to hand over the title to Michelle. Why would they considering she has won the past titles on a fair basis for the most part? I'm not arguing it may play a role but it would be moot if Michelle skates the best out of the pack, which she has proved before.

 

[millie]

The reason why Kwan has won so many Nationals is that she has deserved it. Nationals brings out the best in her. Can anyone honestly say that over the past 3 seasons, someone else should have won?

In 2003, she lit up the arena. In 2004, she faltered in the SP and the judges seemed to want to give the title to Sasha; even though Sasha had a fall and a stumble in the FS, one judge gave her a 6.0 for presentation. Then Kwan skated her heart out, and the judges had to give her a bunch of 6.0s. Last year, "Bolero" was not her best, but she did outskate Sasha once again.

If Michelle had skated under the COP rather than the 6.0 would she had been given the high scores that she received. You say that Michelle skated her heart out and the judges had to give her a bunch of 6.0's. I think that if it was judged under the COP, I don't think that she would have gotten such high scores. I don't think that the COP gives points for passion. Only time will tell. Just my opinion.

 

[attyfan]

If Michelle had skated under the COP rather than the 6.0 would she had been given the high scores that she received. You say that Michelle skated her heart out and the judges had to give her a bunch of 6.0's. I think that if it was judged under the COP, I don't think that she would have gotten such high scores. I don't think that the COP gives points for passion. Only time will tell. Just my opinion.

I think that "passion" does get points under the CoP -- they only call it "interpretation" or some such thing. Also, I don't think that the CoP would have allowed the USFSA judges to put too many other skaters ahead of Michelle at Nats, anyway.

 

[dwiggin3]

Kimmie skates very "juniorishly". and will need an "unwonky" landing for that 3axel to get ahead of Alissa.

Don't forget about Amber and her triple sets....

Uhm...take a look at the SP from COC...she's like 20 points behind the next person.

 

[euterpe]

If Michelle had skated under the COP rather than the 6.0 would she had been given the high scores that she received. You say that Michelle skated her heart out and the judges had to give her a bunch of 6.0's. I think that if it was judged under the COP, I don't think that she would have gotten such high scores. I don't think that the COP gives points for passion. Only time will tell. Just my opinion.

Her PCS scores would have been very, very high, especially the IN (Interpretation) score. If you had read the guidelines for CoP PCS scoring, you would know that.

She would have done fine in the TES (technical) mark as well, since her jumps are cleanly executed with good flowout, and no wonky landings.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Sasha had chances to win the U.S title in 2003 and 2004, I believe the judges were willing to give it to her, but she could not deliver. That is not the fault of the system, or some sort of mythical Kwan bias at Nationals, it is Cohen's fault. Likewise Cohen blew a chance to win the 2004 Worlds, and even in 2005, some would say she couldnt have beaten Irina in Moscow with her spectacular LP, but with Irina's few errors in the short and her losing 5+ points for an extra triple there would have been a chance after all she only lost by 8 points and had errors in both performances. Cohen has never won a major title, other than the 2003 GP final, since she cant do a clean long program, I have NEVER seen one from her except for cheesefests.

 

[R.D.]

Sasha had chances to win the U.S title in 2003 and 2004, I believe the judges were willing to give it to her, but she could not deliver. That is not the fault of the system, or some sort of mythical Kwan bias at Nationals, it is Cohen's fault. Likewise Cohen blew a chance to win the 2004 Worlds, and even in 2005, some would say she couldnt have beaten Irina in Moscow with her spectacular LP, but with Irina's few errors in the short and her losing 5+ points for an extra triple there would have been a chance after all she only lost by 8 points and had errors in both performances. Cohen has never won a major title, other than the 2003 GP final, since she cant do a clean long program, I have NEVER seen one from her except for cheesefests.

I would say the best chance Cohen had to win was this year (2005). I disagree that Cohen could have won in 2003 or 2004. Kwan was a little off so Cohen could have really thrown it down and turned up the heat on Kwan a little bit. Alas, she couldn't. I won't make excuses for her, but that was her real chance IMO.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I would say the best chance Cohen had to win was this year (2005). I disagree that Cohen could have won in 2003 or 2004. Kwan was a little off so Cohen could have really thrown it down and turned up the heat on Kwan a little bit. Alas, she couldn't. I won't make excuses for her, but that was her real chance IMO.

Well I disagree with you. It is purely speculation, neither of us know for sure, agreed? At Nationals 2003 Cohen had mostly 5.7s with a few 5.8s for required elements, and several 5.9s for presentation even with a stumble on the combination jump; she almost certainly would have won the short ahead of Michelle without, and judges tend to stick with who they favor in the short, most(although not all cases). In 2004 she won the short pretty convincingly, Kwan wasnt spectacular in the short, but didnt have an obvious error that I recall, and one judge gave her a 6.0 for presentation in the long even with two major errors at the end; of course Kwan got alot of 6.0s skating later, but that was after the fact of Sasha's performance. So I think the judges were willing to give her the U.S title those two years had she skated cleanly and in an inspired way of course, but she didnt.

2005 was actually her worst chance of the three, even though it is the one Kwan skated the least exceptionaly. She wasnt ready after the injury layoff to perform at top level, and she just wasnt up to it yet. Plus there was extra attention around Kwan biding to tie the record, and Cohen did not have the possable benefit from judges of having done the entire GP series over Kwan, as she possably did in 2003 and 2004.

 

[R.D.]

2005 was actually her worst chance of the three, even though it is the one Kwan skated the least exceptionaly. She wasnt ready after the injury layoff to perform at top level, and she just wasnt up to it yet. Plus there was extra attention around Kwan biding to tie the record, and Cohen did not have the possable benefit from judges of having done the entire GP series over Kwan, as she possably did in 2003 and 2004.

The bolded message is actually why I disagree with you. I must argue that Kwan wasn't under nearly the amount of pressure of the sort she was in 05, leaving her free to bring her best in 03 and 04. If Cohen were to choose ANY of those three years to really skate well and put pressure on Kwan to be exceptional, it would have been 05 (IMO). See how nervous she looked even AFTER Cohen turned in that dud performance? That says a lot to me right there. Imagine if Cohen blew the roof off! Kwan would have been under immense pressure (and we would never have known if she would have risen to the occasion or not), and as a competitor that's all you can do to further your chances of winning. So I stand by my comment that 2005 was Cohen's best chance of winning Nats. Kwan most likely would have stormed back in 03 and 04. The timing of (Cohen's) coaching change/troubles was just really bad that year so it's sort of unfortunate that she really couldn't take advantage of her situation. (2004 was similar BTW, because of her change to RW from TT.)

Who knows, maybe 06 will present itself as another opportunity. Kwan will be under the pressure to make history, PLUS the new scoring system will be used. Various circumstances will most likely favor both Kwan and Cohen, depending on which ones you choose to analyze. JMO.

 

[slutskayafan21]

The bolded message is actually why I disagree with you. I must argue that Kwan wasn't under nearly the amount of pressure of the sort she was in 05, leaving her free to bring her best in 03 and 04. If Cohen were to choose ANY of those three years to really skate well and put pressure on Kwan to be exceptional, it would have been 05 (IMO). See how nervous she looked even AFTER Cohen turned in that dud performance? That says a lot to me right there. Imagine if Cohen blew the roof off! Kwan would have been under immense pressure (and we would never have known if she would have risen to the occasion or not), and as a competitor that's all you can do to further your chances of winning. So I stand by my comment that 2005 was Cohen's best chance of winning Nats. Kwan most likely would have stormed back in 03 and 04. The timing of (Cohen's) coaching change/troubles was just really bad that year so it's sort of unfortunate that she really couldn't take advantage of her situation. (2004 was similar BTW, because of her change to RW from TT.)

Who knows, maybe 06 will present itself as another opportunity. Kwan will be under the pressure to make history, PLUS the new scoring system will be used. Various circumstances will most likely favor both Kwan and Cohen, depending on which ones you choose to analyze. JMO.

Good points all. Perhaps you are right, it would have been nice had Sasha skated cleanly in 2003 and 2004, as well as in 2005, so we would know for sure in all those cases. Michelle did have alot more pressure on her in 2005 than the other two years, where the record was something you dont consider as much as it is multiple times away still. I was also surprised how nervous she looked going out at this past Winters Nationals when Sasha had a sluggish performance before her. So she must have been thinking about tieing that record, and it must have been monumental on her. She also looked more frusterated with her performance, which wasnt her best, then she did with her Worlds performance in Moscow in the free skate, which was slightly below her Nationals performance actually IMO.

I find it interesting you believe Nationals is Kwan's to lose based on your historical belief that was always the case. As you pointed out this year the new scoring system is used at Nationals, and thus far Sasha has proved superior in the new system. Michelle might make the adjustments, might find the solutions, to better master the system, compared to last year; but then again an injury layoff wont help her in that regard. What if she still does not have programs or elements as suited to the system as Sasha though, wouldnt that change Kwan having the title so completely in her own power as you have expressed has been in past years? Just curious.

 

[R.D.]

I find it interesting you believe Nationals is Kwan's to lose based on your historical belief that was always the case. As you pointed out this year the new scoring system is used at Nationals, and thus far Sasha has proved superior in the new system. Michelle might make the adjustments, might find the solutions, to better master the system, compared to last year; but then again an injury layoff wont help her in that regard. What if she still does not have programs or elements as suited to the system as Sasha though, wouldnt that change Kwan having the title so completely in her own power as you have expressed has been in past years? Just curious.

Great question. Things get a little more complicated here IMO, because different people will have different perspectives as to what might happen. But here's mine.

With the exception of 1997, and arguably 2005, Kwan has a history of always bringing her A-game to the U.S. Nationals competition. Whether she breezes past both the SP and the FS, or stumbles in the SP only to have a stellar FS, I've never seen her show up to Nationals unprepared. Now, granted, some Kwan fans who have watched her a whole lot longer than I have might think differently, but this is my impression. I am basing my prediction of Kwan winning mostly on history. 2006 gets a little complicated because of the two things I mentioned earlier: Kwan's record-breaking 10th title, and a new scoring system that suddenly seems to shift the advantage over to one of her competitors. The playing field may even out, so to speak. But here's where my opinion gets a little controversial...

Kwan has proven herself to be the best American lady time and time again. She rarely fails to dazzle the audience with her great, and often emotional, skating. Even last year, when she didn't quite do that, her performance was nevertheless good enough to win over a weak competitive field, including a Cohen that was recovering from yet another coaching change and cross-country move. I have not yet seen Cohen bring it on at Nationals. She has turned in a few respectable World performances, and pro-am performances, but never can quite get it together for the national championship. Last year, I predicted that Kwan would win by a landslide, and people were telling me that I was underestimating Cohen. No, I wasn't. I have a good idea of what she is capable of, and I didn't feel that given the circumstances she would turn in a good enough performance to unseat MK.

This year, both skaters are battling injuries, so this complicates things quite a bit. But I feel that the ball is still in Kwan's court for three main reasons:

1) She is the reigning champion, and therefore is in the driver's seat;

2) She is going for a record-tying 10th title. Since Nationals is a judged event, I FEEL (feel is the key word here) that if it comes down to a close race between Kwan and Cohen, Kwan will still get the edge, no matter what scoring system is used. It's possible that Cohen's superior spins and moves will garner her more points, but will the National judges judge like the international ones, which seem to love/favor Cohen?

3) She has the audience on her side. I really feel that the majority of the audience will be there to witness history, and they will WANT to see it happen. Bank on it.

For those three reasons, I feel that Kwan still wins out in the battle of weighing advantages of each of the competitors. However, if Cohen clearly outskates Kwan, the judges will have no choice but to give the title to Cohen. But she's never been able to bring it to Nats. Maybe that competition freaks her out or something?

But- if she can skate a Worlds 04 SP, and follow that up with a Worlds 05 FS, she might actually have a chance. Nevertheless, Kwan NEEDS to show up prepared to be judged under this new scoring system. She cannot afford to be uncomfortable with it because others aren't, including her biggest competitor. I predict that someone will bring the fire, and someone else will crumble under the pressure. It can be anyone, not just limited to Kwan or Cohen.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Sasha's a good competitive skater. She's considered the second best figure skater in the world. the USA does have 4 divas ready for a national podium that only holds 3. It's anyone's guess and then there's Bebe and Emilie waiting in the wings.

Let's see.

Joe