State of Russian Ladies in skating: 2014-15 Season

[silverlake22]

But Adelina plans to come back. So that's 8 ladies that will definitely have 2 spots and there is no guarantee that Russia will get more than 16 spots. Even though 18 is max possible, I can imagine that some countries will do their best not to have to invite 3 Russians.

I still think Sotskova should move up. Maybe she and Leonova only get 1 GP each, but there are a lot of senior B events they could compete at in addition. I just don't see much reason for Mariya to stay junior for a 3rd season, she already went to the JGPF twice and won it once, even if she doesn't medal at JW, if she places in the top 5, which she is very likely to do, that's still quite an accomplished junior resume. Plus she's getting so tall now and the level of musicality and nuance in her programs is just very senior, she'd kind of stick out if she continues to compete on the junior level IMO.

FTR, I also think Russia should get the maximum 18 spots in ladies, it just makes the competitive level of the GP that much steeper. I mean, this season we had skaters like Brezinova, Ovcharova, Gjersm, and Popova competing on the GP - no offense to those skaters, but Sotskova's skating level is in a whole different league. I don't think it's right for her to be staying in juniors to reserve GP spots for much lesser skaters just because those girls happen to compete for Nations where the level is really weak. A lot of the ladies from obscure nations just look out of place competing on the GP, Sotskova would not look out of place at all.

 

[Ava Moore]

But Adelina plans to come back. So that's 8 ladies that will definitely have 2 spots and there is no guarantee that Russia will get more than 16 spots. Even though 18 is max possible, I can imagine that some countries will do their best not to have to invite 3 Russians.

I don't think Artemeva and Gosviani will even be submitted for GP event.

Wait, what are the criteria to be guaranteed 2 spots and 1 spot?

 

[silverlake22]

Wait, what are the criteria to be guaranteed 2 spots and 1 spot?

Top 12 at Worlds are the only ones guaranteed 2 spots. Top 24 SB and top 24 WS each guarantee 1 spot, but if you are on both lists, that doesn't necessarily lock down 2 spots.

So essentially, because Julia and Leonova are not competing at Worlds this season, there is no way to secure themselves 2 spots with certainty. Because they are on both the top 24 SB and WS lists, they will get at least 1 invite, and have a good chance at 2, but it is not certain. For the junior ladies, none of them are in the top 24 WS but all in consideration are in the top 24 SB. Sostskova is currently #14 on the SB list, so she is unlikely to get bumped out of the top 24 after Worlds (especially because she could increase her SB at JWs). So if she goes senior she can get 1 invite with certainty, and likely 2. If given the choice of host pics I assume Sotskova would be picked over the likes of Artemieva and Gosviani, I mean, she beat both Leonova and Lipnitskaya at Nationals!

 

[Mrs. P]

Wait, what are the criteria to be guaranteed 2 spots and 1 spot?

Liza, Anna and Elena will be guaranteed 2 spots by finishing in the top 12 at Worlds.
In general, a top 24 world standing and/or season best score guarantees you one spot, but generally you have a good shot at two. But again only one spot is guaranteed. Alena, Yulia, Serafima and Zhenya are in the top 24 currently iirc.
I believe junior world medalists are also guaranteed at least one spot as well (if they don't get it via season best/world ranking.
Anyone in the top 75 season best list so eligible for an invite but not guaranteed for a spot.

 

[silverlake22]

Liza, Anna and Elena will be guaranteed 2 spots by finishing in the top 12 at Worlds.
In general, a top 24 world standing and/or season best score guarantees you one spot, but generally you have a good shot at two. But again only one spot is guaranteed. Alena, Yulia, Serafima and Zhenya are in the top 24 currently iirc.
I believe junior world medalists are also guaranteed at least one spot as well (if they don't get it via season best/world ranking.
Anyone in the top 75 season best list so eligible for an invite but not guaranteed for a spot.

Sostkova is in top 24 too, she is number 14. Of the Russian ladies, only Proklova (36) and Artemieva (29) are not in the top 24 currently. Gosviani did not compete this season so she didn't have a chance to get a SB score.

 

[Ava Moore]

Top 12 at Worlds are the only ones guaranteed 2 spots. Top 25 SB and top 25 WS each guarantee 1 spot, but if you are on both lists, that doesn't necessarily lock down 2 spots.

So essentially, because Julia and Leonova are not competing at Worlds this season, there is no way to secure themselves 2 spots with certainty. Because they are on both the top 25 SB and WS lists, they will get at least 1 invite, and have a good chance at 2, but it is not certain. For the junior ladies, none of them are in the top 25 WS but all in consideration are in the top 25 SB. Sostskova is currently #14 on the SB list, so she is unlikely to get bumped out of the top 25 after Worlds (especially because she could increase her SB at Worlds). So if she goes senior she can get 1 invite with certainty, and likely 2. If given the choice of host pics I assume Sotskova would be picked over the likes of Artemieva and Gosviani, I mean, she beat both Leonova and Lipnitskaya at Nationals!

Then again, SA and NHK might go for weaker picks, as hanca mentioned, in order to have more chance of a local skater medalling. Maybe that's where Alena (LP headcase) and Julia (reworking technique, possibility of a not-so-good season) might get assigned to?

 

[Mrs. P]

Then again, SA and NHK might go for weaker picks, as hanca mentioned, in order to have more chance of a local skater medalling. Maybe that's where Alena (LP headcase) and Julia (reworking technique, possibility of a not-so-good season) might get assigned to?

They are obliged to invite one skater ranked 1-3 and 4-6 at worlds. So they could avoid Elena and Liza by inviting the bronze medalist (who could be Ashley, who would be picked anyway as us champs get Skate America). And if Satoko or Rika finish in the 4-6 range ...then maybe they would get the invite.

I get SA has a reputation for inviting less tough fields, but I think reality shows a different picture. They invited V/T in pairs in 2013, they were the reigning world champs. They also invited Mao Asada in 2013 and Tatsuki Machida in 2014.

 

[Sandpiper]

Then again, SA and NHK might go for weaker picks, as hanca mentioned, in order to have more chance of a local skater medalling. Maybe that's where Alena (LP headcase) and Julia (reworking technique, possibility of a not-so-good season) might get assigned to?

Argh, GP assignments are still so confusing... Does this mean it's possible a weaker skater (e.g. Alena Leonova) could get two spots while a stronger skater (e.g. Evgenia or Serafima) ends up with one?

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Argh, GP assignments are still so confusing... Does this mean it's possible a weaker skater (e.g. Alena Leonova) could get two spots while a stronger skater (e.g. Evgenia or Serafima) ends up with one?

Which is why I said I prefer the way JGP does it so that the fed can send who they want to fill the spots available. In case of injury they can hold a skater back until later in the seasons too. Personally I dislike the way the picks are currently done for the senior GP. It seems to encourage federations to stack the deck and select a weaker field to compete against.

 

[hanca]

They are obliged to invite one skater ranked 1-3 and 4-6 at worlds. So they could avoid Elena and Liza by inviting the bronze medalist (who could be Ashley, who would be picked anyway as us champs get Skate America). And if Satoko or Rika finish in the 4-6 range ...then maybe they would get the invite.

I get SA has a reputation for inviting less tough fields, but I think reality shows a different picture. They invited V/T in pairs in 2013, they were the reigning world champs. They also invited Mao Asada in 2013 and Tatsuki Machida in 2014.

They invited V/T because they didn't have anyone who would fight for gold medals anyway. There is need to be some balance - weaker skater which wouldn't hurt the chances of home skaters to medal, but at the same time strong enough field to sell the tickets. If they didn't have a pair that would be near medalling, V/T would at least draw in the audience and sell them the tickets.

Regarding Mao, they did have to pick one of the top six....

Regarding Machida, I would say that he was less likely to beat US men than anyone with better name. I would happily go for Machida if I was a Federation who protects their skater. No one could know in advance how Machida would be skating. It is not like if Machida had a label of a huge well known skater.

 

[Mrs. P]

They invited V/T because they didn't have anyone who would fight for gold medals anyway. There is need to be some balance - weaker skater which wouldn't hurt the chances of home skaters to medal, but at the same time strong enough field to sell the tickets. If they didn't have a pair that would be near medalling, V/T would at least draw in the audience and sell them the tickets.

Regarding Mao, they did have to pick one of the top six....

Regarding Machida, I would say that he was less likely to beat US men than anyone with better name (Takahashi etc)

I guess they could have invited Hanyu, but Machida was the reigning silver world medalist when he got the 2014 invite and had easily beat both Jason and Jeremy at the Olympics. I think USFSA is given too much credit for being that manipulative with their fields. And also, they have to invite a 1-3 and 4-6 skater, so the manipulation only goes so far.

If you go back to in 2008 and 2009 they invited Yuna Kim. Takahashi AND Oda in 2010 (Takahashi was the reigning world champ.)

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I think we may need a new GP selection thread or revive an old one

 

[hanca]

I guess they could have invited Hanyu, but Machida was the reigning silver world medalist when he got the 2014 invite and had easily beat both Jason and Jeremy at the Olympics. I think USFSA is given too much credit for being that manipulative with their fields. And also, they have to invite a 1-3 and 4-6 skater, so the manipulation only goes so far.

If you go back to in 2008 and 2009 they invited Yuna Kim. Takahashi AND Oda in 2010 (Takahashi was the reigning world champ.)

Machida was the reigning silver world medalist when he got the 2014 invite, but how many time at that point of his career he actually delivered? If you have to choose one person from the top six, they are all pretty good, but wouldn't you go for the one who did have a decent result just one off or maybe very rarely, as opposed to someone who has a huge name? Because the one who is inconsistent, or delivered just once in their life may not be able to repeat such performance, whereas if you choose someone with a big name, the chances are that their PCS would held them up even if they didn't deliver. Machida definitely didn't have that great name that the judges would want to keep him up if he doesn't deliver. So he would be one of the least risky choices. If they chose let's say Hanyu, he was able to medal even with five falls, so that could be taking a medal away from any US skater.

 

[Mrs. P]

Machida was the reigning silver world medalist when he got the 2014 invite, but how many time at that point of his career he actually delivered? If you have to choose one person from the top six, they are all pretty good, but wouldn't you go for the one who did have a decent result just one off or maybe very rarely, as opposed to someone who has a huge name? Because the one who is inconsistent, or delivered just once in their life may not be able to repeat such performance, whereas if you choose someone with a big name, the chances are that their PCS would held them up even if they didn't deliver. Machida definitely didn't have that great name that the judges would want to keep him up if he doesn't deliver. So he would be one of the least risky choices. If they chose let's say Hanyu, he was able to medal even with five falls, so that could be taking a medal away from any US skater.

We are getting way off topic here, so this is it for me. But Macihida WON Skate America last year (and his other GP event) got top 5 in the Olympics despite a sub par 11th place SP and nearly beat Hanyu in the FS at Worlds.

And again you have to choose a person from 1-3 AND 4-6 initially. Jeremy was the 4-6 pick along with being a host pick.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree here.

 

[hanca]

We are getting way off topic here, so this is it for me. But Macihida WON Skate America last year (and his other GP event) got top 5 in the Olympics despite a sub par 11th place SP and nearly beat Hanyu in the FS at Worlds.

Sure he won it. But they couldn't have known that when they were inviting him!

 

[Mrs. P]

Sure he won it. But they couldn't have known that when they were inviting him!

They knew all that when they invited him again in 2014.

 

[Sandpiper]

While Machida isn't Hanyu, he's not a weaker skater than any of the other guys... Who are all those big unbeatable names that Machida is not?

 

[silverlake22]

While Machida isn't Hanyu, he's not a weaker skater than any of the other guys... Who are all those big unbeatable names that Machida is not?

Well for one, Machida retired. And two, Machida is prone to meltdowns. His scores were really, really low at 2 GPFs, and what's more shocking is that he put up huge scores at his GP events prior to both finals. One year at GPF his score was not even 200, this year it was like 216. Meanwhile Hanyu with a concussion and 5 falls still scored 237 at CoC.

 

[Mrs. P]

Going back to those Russian ladies.

Junior Worlds Ladies SP is tomorrow! http://goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?54263-2015-Junior-Worlds-Ladies-Short-Program-March-4

Maria Sotskova is 36th to skate, in the second to final group and Serafima Sakhanovich and Evgenia Medvedeva will close out the competition, skating 42nd and 43rd respectively.

 

[Crossover]

We are getting way off topic here, so this is it for me. But Macihida WON Skate America last year (and his other GP event) got top 5 in the Olympics despite a sub par 11th place SP and nearly beat Hanyu in the FS at Worlds.

And again you have to choose a person from 1-3 AND 4-6 initially. Jeremy was the 4-6 pick along with being a host pick.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree here.

ITA. I don't know why Machida is discussed in the totally irrelevant place. This thread is for the Russian Ladies' activities this season but Machida, JAPANESE MALE skater is referred to as an example for weaker skaters in top 6 whom Skate America wishes to pick to protect THEIR skaters? Don't forget that Ten, the Sochi OBM and 2013 World silver medalist was also invited to Skate America too. I think somebody needs to set up a new thread for the next possible GP assignment for Russian girls or American boys.:disapp: I don't recall any record that any US male skaters beat Machida at GP circuits since 2012. None of the American skaters could have a higher placement than Machida's at Sochi and 2014 Worlds too. Some people only see what they want to see. What about Skate America's pick as Gracie's opponents, Liza and Radionova?