Just because there have been radical changes in the standings at other events means nothing about what would have hypothetically happened at TEB. You can cite Skate Canada as an example, and I can cite a random competition like the 2010-2011 GPF when the final standings literally remained exactly the same as the ones from the SP, with Miki placing 5th despite winning the long program by a 5 point margin. The chance that a drastic shift would have occurred cannot be taken for granted; there is also the chance that nothing changed.
Of course any reasonable skating fan, me included, would bet money that Tukt would have made a comeback and placed higher than Roberta. But then again, what reasonable skating fan would have predicted Tukt ever needing to "come back" at all? That she would be 5th and Roberta 3rd? The chance that Roberta would have placed higher was infinitesimally small, and yet, it happened. So chances and probabilities and hypotheticals are unreliable in a sport as unpredictable as figure skating and shouldn't be entertained just because your fav is in trouble. Perhaps in physics or economics or political science, we would rely on the hypothetical, but this is a sport, a competition. What ultimately matters is what HAPPENED, not what would/could have been.